Canadian Political Polls

[Keepitsimple]

Regardless of how long it took the Liberals to even address their National Daycare promises, lets not forget what Martin's plan was all about. It was a series of agreements with the provinces that simply transferred some money to them - with very few strings attached. That's because the Provinces are responsible for Education and don't want the Federal Government intruding on their constitutional juristictions. The daycare program is an archaic form of Liberal paternalism towards to provinces - big central government. As Gilles Duceppe used to call the Liberal government - they try to smother the provinces with a "Father knows Best" attitude.

Edited February 4, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[normanchateau]

February 4 Ekos poll:

31.9% LPC

31.0% CPC

15.4% NDP

10.9% Green

8.4% BQ

2.4% Other

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_february_4.pdf

Same poll, university educated only:

39.8% LPC

26.6% CPC

14.7% NDP

9.7% Green

6.8% BQ

2.4 Other

The gap between LPC and CPC widens to 13% among the university educated.

[ToadBrother]

February 4 Ekos poll:

31.9% LPC

31.0% CPC

15.4% NDP

10.9% Green

8.4% BQ

2.4% Other

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_february_4.pdf

Same poll, university educated only:

39.8% LPC

26.6% CPC

14.7% NDP

9.7% Green

6.8% BQ

2.4 Other

The gap between LPC and CPC widens to 13% among the university educated.

Harper seems to be responding. Now the spring breaks are gone. Apparently Parliament needed to be in session after all, and now they've got to cut out recesses.

Stupid $#&*ing Tories. They can't even do a 180 right any more.

[waldo]

Harper seems to be responding. Now the spring breaks are gone. Apparently Parliament needed to be in session after all, and now they've got to cut out recesses.

Stupid $#&*ing Tories. They can't even do a 180 right any more.

ya, more PMO visuals presuming to equate 2 weeks of recess to actual perogy time - notwithstanding perogy costs and canceled bills.

and what's the deal with the poll disparity involving university educated - does higher learning favour more astute assessment?

[ToadBrother]

ya, more PMO visuals presuming to equate 2 weeks of recess to actual perogy time - notwithstanding perogy costs and canceled bills.

and what's the deal with the poll disparity involving university educated - does higher learning favour more astute assessment?

Looking at the regional breakdowns, I'd say this is a scarier poll than just a statistical dead heat between Tories and Liberals. In Ontario, the Liberals have an 8 point lead over the Tories, in Quebec almost 10 points. The Tories have a serious problem, which the spring break cancellations obviously underlines. The good will over Haiti has not translated into polling numbers, I think we can pretty much discount that it's going to be much of an influence on popularity. Prorogation is still dogging the Tories, and the evidence is clear now that the Liberals are the beneficiaries.

All of that to save Peter MacKay's ass.

[Smallc]

I wonder what's going to happen when Parliament returns? I wonder if the opposition will have enough in the way of balls to find the government in contempt of Parliament over the document issue? Apparently, from what they were told yesterday, members of the government (including the Prime Minister) could be sent to jail if they continue to refuse to hand over the documents, as they are compelled to by law and possibly the Constitution.

[Wild Bill]

and what's the deal with the poll disparity involving university educated - does higher learning favour more astute assessment?

Not at all! It's been written since before Socrates that youth tends to be inexperienced and idealistic, whereas age tends to be experienced and practical. There is a quote that goes "If you're not a socialist at 20 then you have no heart. If you're not a Conservative at 40 then you have no head!"

I was part of the general population who thought this was a Winston Churchill quote but a quick google proved me wrong. It's actually at least a hundred years older than that!

"The phrase originated with Francois Guisot (1787-1874): "Not to be a

republican at twenty is proof of want of heart; to be one at thirty is

proof of want of head." It was revived by French Premier Georges

Clemenceau (1841-1929): "Not to be a socialist at twenty is proof of

want of heart; to be one at thirty is proof of want of head."

Whatever, the point is still valid. Youth has the benefit of more energy for passion but there is no substitute for actual experience. That's why academics usually make very poor managers or tradesmen. They have book-learning but no "hands-on". Books usually give only the overall view but when you actually have to DO something it's the details that are most important and cannot be ignored. The older you are, the more often you've had to deal with the details.

[Smallc]

I didn't realize that all the university educated people were young.

[Alta4ever]

ya, more PMO visuals presuming to equate 2 weeks of recess to actual perogy time - notwithstanding perogy costs and canceled bills.

Even though I think that this move by Harper is ridiculous I do have to correct your ignorance. The Perogy amounts to 17 days missed of the house sitting, if they eliminate the break weeks this spring they gain back 15 of those days. Also all of those bills can be re introduced by a motion that would see them returned the same standing they had before the perogy. So the question is will the opposition pass that motion or will they stand in the way, which will mean that they have the decision to prevent those costs they are rallying against from occurring.

[ToadBrother]

Even though I think that this move by Harper is ridiculous I do have to correct your ignorance. The Perogy amounts to 17 days missed of the house sitting, if they eliminate the break weeks this spring they gain back 15 of those days. Also all of those bills can be re introduced by a motion that would see them returned the same standing they had before the perogy. So the question is will the opposition pass that motion or will they stand in the way, which will mean that they have the decision to prevent those costs they are rallying against from occurring.

Translation: Will the Opposition continue to make the Tories look bad, and how can I make the stupidity of Prorogation and the fact that the Haiti mission did nothing for my favorite political party look like it's Iggy's fault.

[nicky10013]

Even though I think that this move by Harper is ridiculous I do have to correct your ignorance. The Perogy amounts to 17 days missed of the house sitting, if they eliminate the break weeks this spring they gain back 15 of those days. Also all of those bills can be re introduced by a motion that would see them returned the same standing they had before the perogy. So the question is will the opposition pass that motion or will they stand in the way, which will mean that they have the decision to prevent those costs they are rallying against from occurring.

Why should the opposition let them through? Harper suspends parliament to halt the afghan detainee enquiry and proceeds to kill his own bills. He should own what he did and have to start from the beginning. Besides, if we're going to be quite honest, the 30 some odd bills were meaningless crime bills that by all accounts doesn't really change much.

[ToadBrother]

Why should the opposition let them through? Harper suspends parliament to halt the afghan detainee enquiry and proceeds to kill his own bills. He should own what he did and have to start from the beginning. Besides, if we're going to be quite honest, the 30 some odd bills were meaningless crime bills that by all accounts doesn't really change much.

Alta4ever's "explanation" does seem to resemble "It's all your fault our bills fell off the order paper." I mean, it's not as if the Opposition owes the Tories any big favors.

I'm reasonably sure that the Opposition won't put that big a stink. After all, the real fight is going to be over getting unredacted documents over the Afghan issue.

[Smallc]

Yes, I think with that fight we may be entering an uncharted era in Canadian politics. I just hope (and I have my doubts) that Canadians are smart enough to understand why it's all (probably) about to happen.

[Alta4ever]

Why should the opposition let them through? Harper suspends parliament to halt the afghan detainee enquiry and proceeds to kill his own bills. He should own what he did and have to start from the beginning. Besides, if we're going to be quite honest, the 30 some odd bills were meaningless crime bills that by all accounts doesn't really change much.

So if they were meaningless why didn't the opposition vote against them before. Why did they waste the time and resources of parliament by letting something pass they though was meaningless?

The ball is in the oppositions court since they thought these bills important enough to pass first and in some cases second reading either let the motion to bring back the bills at the level of reading they have achieved pass or admit that they wasted resources by allowing them to pass first reading and vote down the motion. Although I imagine Harper will roll this motion into the speech from the throne making it a confidence motion and the opposition parties will either have to show their coalition cards again or go back to the polls. Which will beak Ignatieff's promise of no spring election. I suspect it would be an election since a coalition would require the support of three parties in a house of 4 which makes it by this nature very unstable.

[nicky10013]

So if they were meaningless why didn't the opposition vote against them before. Why did they waste the time and resources of parliament by letting something pass they though was meaningless?

The ball is in the oppositions court since they thought these bills important enough to pass first and in some cases second reading either let the motion to bring back the bills at the level of reading they have achieved pass or admit that they wasted resources by allowing them to pass first reading and vote down the motion. Although I imagine Harper will roll this motion into the speech from the throne making it a confidence motion and the opposition parties will either have to show their coalition cards again or go back to the polls. Which will beak Ignatieff's promise of no spring election. I suspect it would be an election since a coalition would require the support of three parties in a house of 4 which makes it by this nature very unstable.

Because even though Harper doesn't "want" an election, he makes everything confidence motions. He makes the opposition either vote for him or force an election.

Furthermore, Ignatieff never promised that there wouldn't be a spring election. When asked, don't you think it's odd that he ALWAYS replies with "Canadians made it clear to us what they want"? The polls are now looking like Canadians do want an election to get rid of this ass of a PM.

Edited February 4, 2010 by nicky10013

[ToadBrother]

Yes, I think with that fight we may be entering an uncharted era in Canadian politics. I just hope (and I have my doubts) that Canadians are smart enough to understand why it's all (probably) about to happen.

Uncharted perhaps, but we know the end of the road. The Government has no power to obstruct Parliament's right to view any and all documents at its choosing. As I keep saying to all those Tory supporters who keep trying to justify the government's stonewalling, Parliament is supreme, not the Government. If Harper does force this issue to the Supreme Court, then any argument his supporters and sycophants here have that he is some sort of a moral leader of a moral party goes out the window. However bad the Liberals were, they never so blatantly violated one of the key precepts of the Constitutional arrangement which has defined our governing system for over three hundred years.

Edited February 4, 2010 by ToadBrother

[nicky10013]

Uncharted perhaps, but we know the end of the road. The Government has no power to obstruct Parliament's right to view any and all documents at its choosing. As I keep saying to all those Tory supporters who keep trying to justify the government's stonewalling, Parliament is supreme, not the Government. If Harper does force this issue to the Supreme Court, then any argument his supporters and sycophants here have that he is some sort of a moral leader of a moral party goes out the window. However bad the Liberals were, they never so blatantly violated one of the key precepts of the Constitutional arrangement which has defined our governing system for over three hundred years.

Yeah but you're forgetting the MOST important point. We all hate the troops

[ToadBrother]

Yeah but you're forgetting the MOST important point. We all hate the troops

I don't approve of prisoners being abused, and as we basically own the Afghan government, I think we should make it clear in the strongest possible terms that we will not tolerate Afghan authorities beating people up or torturing them. (As far as I'm concerned, we should give Karzai 24 hours to find the border, or we're going to drop him in the middle of the nearest Taliban encampment, but that's just me.)

That being said, I'm going to be blunt. The investigation into prisoner abuse is a witch hunt. No one seriously believes our soldiers are abusing prisoners. Maybe some commanders know they've been turning over detainees, but it's not like our forces, or any NATO forces, really has that much capacity to hold on to every single Taliban fighter they capture. At the end of the day, we have to trust the Afghani government. So this witch hunt serves no other purpose than to bring down MacKay, weaken the Tories, with the very bad side-effect that it's potentially very damaging not only to our international reputation, but to the morale of the soldiers on the ground.

Now, with all of that being said, the Government has absolutely no right in our system to deprive Parliament of full and complete documentation. It is violating the constitution, and should be held in contempt. Parliament makes the laws and decides policy. That power is delivered after a fashion into Government's hands, but Government makes these decisions only because Parliament allows it. Any Tory supporter here who advocates this violation of the constitution is excusing an act of rebellion against the lawful powers of Parliament and should be ashamed of themselves.

Edited February 4, 2010 by ToadBrother

[Alta4ever]

Because even though Harper doesn't "want" an election, he makes everything confidence motions. He makes the opposition either vote for him or force an election.

Furthermore, Ignatieff never promised that there wouldn't be a spring election. When asked, don't you think it's odd that he ALWAYS replies with "Canadians made it clear to us what they want"? The polls are now looking like Canadians do want an election to get rid of this ass of a PM.

I haven't seen a poll stating Canadians want an election, just because your guys are tied in opinion polls does not mean that an election is wanted by Canadians, just like when the tories were polling at 39% it did not translate into Canadians wanting an election.

From Ignatieffs own mouth

http://canuckpolitics.com/2010/01/08/ignatieff-and-haper-on-prorogation/

[nicky10013]

I don't approve of prisoners being abused, and as we basically own the Afghan government, I think we should make it clear in the strongest possible terms that we will not tolerate Afghan authorities beating people up or torturing them. (As far as I'm concerned, we should give Karzai 24 hours to find the border, or we're going to drop him in the middle of the nearest Taliban encampment, but that's just me.)

That being said, I'm going to be blunt. The investigation into prisoner abuse is a witch hunt. No one seriously believes our soldiers are abusing prisoners. Maybe some commanders know they've been turning over detainees, but it's not like our forces, or any NATO forces, really has that much capacity to hold on to every single Taliban fighter they capture. At the end of the day, we have to trust the Afghani government. So this witch hunt serves no other purpose than to bring down MacKay, weaken the Tories, with the very bad side-effect that it's potentially very damaging not only to our international reputation, but to the morale of the soldiers on the ground.

Now, with all of that being said, the Government has absolutely no right in our system to deprive Parliament of full and complete documentation. It is violating the constitution, and should be held in contempt. Parliament makes the laws and decides policy. That power is delivered after a fashion into Government's hands, but Government makes these decisions only because Parliament allows it. Any Tory supporter here who advocates this violation of the constitution is excusing an act of rebellion against the lawful powers of Parliament and should be ashamed of themselves.

I don't believe it's a witch hunt. I don't think ANYONE pursuing this issue believes the troops are doing something bad. They're following their directives from the government and that's where the issue lies. Though holding out on requests for documents has become the main issue, how much the government knew about this and when STILL has something to do with what's going on. I don't care what party it is, the fact that we've been handing people over to torture is going to have international ramifications no matter what. It's up to parliament to decide what has gone wrong, why it has gone wrong and how we can fix it. If the government had just been honest in the first place in saying yes, there has been troubles that we frankly didn't expect and here are some proposed solutions up for debate, there would've been no controversy. Instead, they first denied anything happen and then when the CDS stood up and said wait, prisoners had been abused, they tried everything to pin it on the transfer agreement put in place by the Liberals which had been changed by the Conservatives earlier. Then, the infamous documents were simply not provided to parliament. It looks like a witch hunt right now but there were about 8 outs the government has and knew they had but they simply decided to stonewall which makes everyone wonder truly what they're actually hiding.

This also wasn't originally about Mackay. Mackay made it about Mackay when he stood up in parliament and obviously lied through his teeth.

[nicky10013]

I haven't seen a poll stating Canadians want an election, just because your guys are tied in opinion polls does not mean that an election is wanted by Canadians, just like when the tories were polling at 39% it did not translate into Canadians wanting an election.

From Ignatieffs own mouth

http://canuckpolitics.com/2010/01/08/ignatieff-and-haper-on-prorogation/

Nice try. When there's been a massive shift in support and the sitting government is starting to become unpopular, you think it's odd that people would say, "gee, we don't like him, why don't we get rid of him?"

EDIT: where in that video does he say, "We are not going to have an election." He says he wants to make parliament work, which ironically is what Harper was saying months before he pulled the plug breaking his own election law.

Edited February 4, 2010 by nicky10013

[ToadBrother]

I haven't seen a poll stating Canadians want an election, just because your guys are tied in opinion polls does not mean that an election is wanted by Canadians, just like when the tories were polling at 39% it did not translate into Canadians wanting an election.

From Ignatieffs own mouth

http://canuckpolitics.com/2010/01/08/ignatieff-and-haper-on-prorogation/

That certainly explains why the Tories went to the polls in November 2008...

At any rate, I don't think anyone who actually sees the numbers believes anyone wants to go to the polls this spring. Iggy clearly has no expectation that the Liberals are going to start getting the kind of lead in the polls that would make chancing forcing an election worth it.

But it amusing watching you Tories squirm right now. You deserve every bit of that discomfort, and I hope it is multiplied many times as you try to justify a flagrant disregard for Parliament.

Edited February 4, 2010 by ToadBrother

[nicky10013]

That certainly explains why the Tories went to the polls in November 2008...

At any rate, I don't think anyone who actually sees the numbers believes anyone wants to go to the polls this spring. Iggy clearly has no expectation that the Liberals are going to start getting the kind of lead in the polls that would make chancing forcing an election worth it.

But it amusing watching you Tories squirm right now. You deserve every bit of that discomfort, and I hope it is multiplied many times as you try to justify a flagrant disregard for Parliament.

It really depends on how the polls are looking in march. We've had polling for months saying Canadians are sick of minority governenmts and now we have polls clearly saying they're sick of Harper. The Liberals have a 9 point lead in Ontario and a 10 point lead over the Tories (though clearly short of the Bloc) in Quebec. This is all before the writ is even dropped. Who knows which way an election could go but it could certainly be a decisive result either way.

[Alta4ever]

Nice try. When there's been a massive shift in support and the sitting government is starting to become unpopular, you think it's odd that people would say, "gee, we don't like him, why don't we get rid of him?"

EDIT: where in that video does he say, "We are not going to have an election." He says he wants to make parliament work, which ironically is what Harper was saying months before he pulled the plug breaking his own election law.

A massive shift in Support where do you come up with this Crap, the liberals were polling at 27% not they are polling 30-31% where is the massive shift? The only massive shift I can see is the disappearing of nine points of conservative support to don't know/won't vote column.

Take of your rose colored glasses and look at the reality, not what you want to see. You post the poll the asks the question of Canadians do you want a federal election in the last two weeks that shows a majority for an election, and I'll eat my words.

[nicky10013]

A massive shift in Support where do you come up with this Crap, the liberals were polling at 27% not they are polling 30-31% where is the massive shift? The only massive shift I can see is the disappearing of nine points of conservative support to don't know/won't vote column.

Take of your rose colored glasses and look at the reality, not what you want to see. You post the poll the asks the question of Canadians do you want a federal election in the last two weeks that shows a majority for an election, and I'll eat my words.

I believe the numbers were down around 23 if we want to be accurate. Either way, even if there isn't that significant a shift in support for the Liberals, just look at the numbers in Ontario. The Tories can get 70% of the vote in Alberta (which by the way skews the national numbers) but they can't win anymore seats than they already have. Ontario is the province you win to win government and for the Tories, the numbers here are awful. That's not bias my friend, just a little dose of reality.