Ndp Showing Strength

maplesyrup · March 8, 2004

NDP are poised to make substantial gains in BC, particularly in the urban areas such as Vancouver and Victoria. One of the reasons is the current unpopularity of the BC Liberals who have been in freefall, and they are connected both with the federal Liberals and the CPC.

These are unbiased opinions of university political scientists, rather than the rah rah party boosters, that post here on these discussion boards.

There is a good possibility the NDP might take 1/2 the seats in BC.

In Quebec not by much but the NDP are ahead of the the CPC and it will be the NDP, not the CPC who could possibity pick up a seat or two there.

sir_springer · March 8, 2004

Maple...or Stan, as the case may be...

Those predictions for the NDP in BC are absolute nonsense.

1) You cannot find even so much as one little hint of co-relation between federal and provincial voting patterns for the NDP.

In fact, during the NDP's entire reign provincially in this province, the Reform/CA ruled federally while the NDP got trashed repeatedly.

2) For the NDP to win more than 4 ridings in the entire province would require a massive and fundamental shift in federal voting habits in this province.

What...in your wildest dreams...could you possibly predicate such a shift upon? Discontent with Gordon Campbell's Liberals??? That's so inane it's beyond even being funny.

The BC Liberals have gone out of their way to distance themselves from the federal Libs, and for damn good reason, too. Not the least of which is that a huge percentage of the their membership and/or constituency workers are also members of the Reform/CA/CPC.

With the emergence of this latest scandal involving Martin campaign funding, etc, here in BC, the BC Libs...if any at all were toying with the federal party...deffinitely are keeping their distance now.

The only reason the provincial NDP are contenders in this province is because they're the only alternative to the incumbant government du jour.

British Columbians, contrary to the blatherings of professors operating in hotbeds of socialist drivel in our universities, are about as leftwing as your average American across the border in Montana.

The federal NDP are a joke in this province. And every time someone wants to have a good chuckle at their expense, they bring up the likes of Svend or Libby...or that jackass, Layton.

For the NDP to take half the seats in this province would require them to swing at least...AT LEAST...35% of the voters to their side. That's in addition to what they got in 2000.

And that, pal, ain't gonna happen. Not now, not any time soon...if ever in BC.

BigGunner · March 8, 2004

Maple...or Stan, as the case may be...
Those predictions for the NDP in BC are absolute nonsense.

1) You cannot find even so much as one little hint of co-relation between federal and provincial voting patterns for the NDP.

In fact, during the NDP's entire reign provincially in this province, the Reform/CA ruled federally while the NDP got trashed repeatedly.

2) For the NDP to win more than 4 ridings in the entire province would require a massive and fundamental shift in federal voting habits in this province.

What...in your wildest dreams...could you possibly predicate such a shift upon? Discontent with Gordon Campbell's Liberals??? That's so inane it's beyond even being funny.

The BC Liberals have gone out of their way to distance themselves from the federal Libs, and for damn good reason, too. Not the least of which is that a huge percentage of the their membership and/or constituency workers are also members of the Reform/CA/CPC.

With the emergence of this latest scandal involving Martin campaign funding, etc, here in BC, the BC Libs...if any at all were toying with the federal party...deffinitely are keeping their distance now.

The only reason the provincial NDP are contenders in this province is because they're the only alternative to the incumbant government du jour.

British Columbians, contrary to the blatherings of professors operating in hotbeds of socialist drivel in our universities, are about as leftwing as your average American across the border in Montana.

The federal NDP are a joke in this province. And every time someone wants to have a good chuckle at their expense, they bring up the likes of Svend or Libby...or that jackass, Layton.

For the NDP to take half the seats in this province would require them to swing at least...AT LEAST...35% of the voters to their side. That's in addition to what they got in 2000.

And that, pal, ain't gonna happen. Not now, not any time soon...if ever in BC.

Say what you want about the federal NDP's chances in BC, but Ipsos-Reid's last poll put the NDP at 26% (liberals also 26% and the conservatives 33%)

Given that breakdown of support, I'd suggest that we really looking at the kind of earth shifting change in voting patters in BC that you spoke of, and dismissed.

Given that the Alliance scored almost 50% of the entire popular vote in 2000, for them to lose 17 points is more than significant. The Liberals scored 27% in 2000 in BC - so where do you think the NDP is getting its support from?

Knowing how voter concentrations work in my home province, I can advise you that if these numbers hold up, the Conservatives will be swept from a number of their seats in areas they thought were 'theirs'.

Vancouver Island is NOT Conservative turf. While the Reform and Alliance party did very well on the Island, the eastern dominated Conservative party will get turfed in favour of Canada's other anti-establishment/western rooted populist party, the NDP.

The conservatives will easily retain northen BC seats, and areas around Kelowna, eastern frazer valley, and greater Vancouver's North Shore ridings, but have no hope in urban BC.

It is more than a possibility that the NDP will take 12 or more seats in BC in this upcoming election.

August1991 · March 8, 2004

Until we get close to an election date, or at least the election is called, the polls are good but far from perfect. As noted above by sir_springer about BC, people don't pay attention until they have to. This is true elsewhere also.

Layton is slick and speaks well to an urban crowd, particularly in Ontario but these people won't vote NDP. I think they just won't vote. I don't know what effect he'll have in the west. There are 32 seats in the Maritimes. They'll stay largely Liberal, although the CPC may get a few.

The CBC makes a big deal about the NDP, Layton'll be interviewed like the others and this gives the impression they're a contender. But then they finish last. Happens everytime.

There are alot of people who voted Liberal last time out in Ontario. These people don't follow politics closely, hear the stories and are upset. What do they do? They're uncomfortable with CPC/Reform and they don't like the NDP. In a poll, they might say Liberal or undecided. Election day comes, I bet they just don't vote.

Galahad · March 8, 2004

Atlantic Canada (only the ignorant now call it The Maritmes).

Back on the subject of Canada's favorite region (Atlantic Canada ... formerly known as the Maritimes).

I now formally apologize for any slurs I made against this region, in light of the reply to Don Martin's article (below) by Carol Tooton in the letters to the Editor today.

Here's Don's article:

"Who's afraid of the vocabulary constabulary?

Don Martin

National Post

Thursday, March 04, 2004

OTTAWA - WARNING: This column contains objectionable material if read in Nova Scotia. On a brighter note, residents could win $2,000 to report its chronically inappropriate contents to government authorities.

** Admin - The remainder of the article was removed due to copyright infringment **

Here's Carol's reply. In light of the stunningly high incidence of mental illness in Nova Scotia ( she puts it at 20%), I feel bad that I mocked the afflicted.

"Words can hurt

National Post

Monday, March 08, 2004

Re: Who's Afraid Of the Vocabulary Constabulary?, Don Martin, March 4.

The initiative referred to in this column, co-sponsored by the Nova Scotia Division of the Canadian Mental Health Association and the Nova Scotia Department of Health, was intended to serve as an indicator of how well the media address issues related to mental illness and suicide.

** Admin - The remainder of the article was removed due to copyright infringment **

PS - BTW, I can recognize the Baron's style of writing anywhere and unless he & Don are identical twins the article that Carol wants Don and NP to apologize for was NOT written by Don Martin but the Baron of Banality himself and I have a good mind exposing it, somewhere. But where, that is the question.

PSS - Happy International Womens day to all the ladies here.

maplesyrup · March 8, 2004

Galahad wrote:

PSS - Happy International Womens day to all the ladies here.

Hear! Hear!

Ditto.

And thanks for publishing that response to that unfortunate Don Martin article, and for exposing Don Martin as well.

Galahad · March 8, 2004

And thanks for publishing that response to that unfortunate Don Martin article, and for exposing Don Martin as well.

You're welcome.

BTW - Does he do that often, put his name to another writer's material?

Alliance Fanatic · March 9, 2004

I doubt that the NDP will make any gains in the election. The NDP used to be the party for the blue collar worker, but have moved to far left in their social policies. If the NDP ever wants to make any gains nationally they have to put in place some real alternative's for Canadians, and policies that dont make them sound like just a bunch of left wing socialists, green nuts, marxists, and anti americans. If the NDP adopted policies that were more isolationist, Canada first, and was moderate in regards to social policies, then yes the NDP has a chance to make gains.

PS: Why did'nt you guys vote for Nystrom, or Blaikie, I also think that you should get rid of nutjobs like Libby Davies, and Svend Robinson, hey the Alliance got rid of Spencer, so you get rid of those people.

BigGunner · March 9, 2004

I doubt that the NDP will make any gains in the election. The NDP used to be the party for the blue collar worker, but have moved to far left in their social policies. If the NDP ever wants to make any gains nationally they have to put in place some real alternative's for Canadians, and policies that dont make them sound like just a bunch of left wing socialists, green nuts, marxists, and anti americans. If the NDP adopted policies that were more isolationist, Canada first, and was moderate in regards to social policies, then yes the NDP has a chance to make gains.
PS: Why did'nt you guys vote for Nystrom, or Blaikie, I also think that you should get rid of nutjobs like Libby Davies, and Svend Robinson, hey the Alliance got rid of Spencer, so you get rid of those people.

The NDP will make gains in the next federal election. Every poll is suggesting a dramatic recovery for the party. NDP can usually count on a 15-20% popular support nationally, which is higher in its core support regions.

Factors that held down the NDP in 93-2000 were the fact that the party had 2 very unpopular NDP provincial governments in power, and the federal party paid the price.

For Ontario, the NDP has been out of power for almost 10 years, and the provincial Liberals and PC party have actually damaged themselves somewhat.

In BC, the NDP has had a stunning recovery, and according to some polls, could actually win if the election was held today.

While national polling puts the conservatives within striking distance of the Liberals, it is due to their polling recovery in Ontario - not the west. In fact, in every western province that the Reform and Alliance party swept in the last three elections, their support is actually lower now. Most of their support has drifted to the NDP.

Look it up...

2000

Alliance, 50% popular support

Liberals, 27%

NDP, 11%

2004 (so far)

Conservative, 33%

NDP, 26%

Liberal, 26%

...you see, the liberals haven't moved anywhere, but the alliance/CPC party has lost 17 points to the NDP.

Ps..

As for nutjobs, the kind of left-wing rhetoric from Svend and Libby is popular in east Vancouver and it wins them elections. Strange eh?

maplesyrup · March 9, 2004

Interesting to see the CPC are now in third place in BC as I supsected was going to happen all along.

Norman Ruff, the U of Victoria political scientist, is dead on when he sees the NDP making gains in BC.

With Layton's effective leadership, and the unpolularity of Gordon Campbell, I expect the NDP to take about half the seats in BC.

Galahad · March 9, 2004

Atlantic Canada (only the ignorant now call it The Maritmes).

Back on the subject of Canada's favorite region (Atlantic Canada ... formerly known as the Maritimes).

I now formally apologize for any slurs I made against this region, in light of the reply to Don Martin's article (below) by Carol Tooton in the letters to the Editor today.

Here's Don's article:

"Who's afraid of the vocabulary constabulary?

Don Martin

National Post

Thursday, March 04, 2004

OTTAWA - WARNING: This column contains objectionable material if read in Nova Scotia. On a brighter note, residents could win $2,000 to report its chronically inappropriate contents to government authorities.

** Admin - The remainder of the article was removed due to copyright infringment **

If one goes to the article by Don Martin in the NP (due to the new electronic versions of papers...I can't send you a valid URL, so you'll have to wend your way there yourself), please look down at the bottom right hand corner of the article.

It has a wee "send to a friend" button.

So Don is not worried in the least about "copyright infringement" by forwarding his article all over the WorldWideWeb, but for some reason this tiny little website IS worried.

Can anyone explain this to me?

PS - I have already bragged to Don about how I have sent it to all of my friends & acquaintances on the Mapleleaf board .... and now most of it is gone. He won't be pleased, Greg!

Greg · March 9, 2004

I'll tell you what Galahad,

you have Don Martin contact me directly, that way he can give me his personal permission to reprint his articles in full on Maple Leaf Web.

Hey, this might just be a great idea! The National Post will pay Don to produce his witty and informative articles, and MLW will simple reproduce his work for those too cheap to purchase the online or offline copies.

Wow, why didn't I think of that before?

Oh ya, cause it's illegal. Now Galahad, if you would please refrain from posting off-topic posts in this "tiny little website," we can get back to the topic at hand.

maplesyrup · March 9, 2004

As the NDP has continued to show strength in national polling I have been trying to figure out some of the reasons for their popularity amongst Canadians.

One of the reasons I believe is addressed in the following article:

A leaders' race to nowhere
Evoking Pierre Trudeau's evergreen concern that a prime minister must be more than a headwaiter to the premiers, Harper seems more comfortable living within the confines of a 140-year-old Constitution than in providing a challenge to the status quo that would amaze, perhaps even delight, the Fathers of Confederation.

http://www.torontostar.com/NASApp/cs/Conte...ist969907626423

I too share these concerns that Mr Travers raises in his article. We need a Canadian prime minister who is going to stand up to the provinces. Someone who will represent Canada as a whole entity, otherwise we will continue to drift towards a bulcanized state of being in Canada.

willy · March 9, 2004

Maplesyrup:

You can’t think that Layton is the man.

He does go against the grain, and wants to fight business, the provinces, and the Americans. Help us all if he is successful.

His latest mess of an idea has been to set tariffs on our own energy before it goes to the states as a pressure mechanism for trade talks. I don’t even know where to start with what is wrong with that.

I look forward to him getting a lot of press and being examined. Some people you don’t have to discredit, you just have to give them a rope and they will hang themselves.

Galahad · March 9, 2004

I'll tell you what Galahad,
you have Don Martin contact me directly,

Consider it done!

Black Dog · March 9, 2004

You can’t think that Layton is the man.
He does go against the grain, and wants to fight business, the provinces, and the Americans. Help us all if he is successful.

Wow. Insightful. :rolleyes:

And who gives a crap about Don Martin?

maplesyrup · March 9, 2004

You can’t think that Layton is the man.
He does go against the grain, and wants to fight business, the provinces, and the Americans. Help us all if he is successful.

Willy.....yes actually I do believe Layton is the man. But more importantly so do more and more Canadians, as we can see by the trends in the Ipsos-Reid polls, one of which came out today.

Layton has turned the NDP around. He wants to fight the abuses of multinationals, the whinning of the provinces, and the bullying of the US against Canada.

If people are so concerned about government spending, maybe we should abolish the provinces. I'm sick of the premier's whinning and we would save a lot of taxpayer's money in the process.

Perhaps with a federal government and a municipal government, that is all the government we need.

willy · March 9, 2004

Careful what you wish for. For the last fifty years we have had a continually centralized power base. It now resides in the Prime Ministers Office. This is obviously not new news.

What you are advocating is less check and balance and less democracy.

And I thought MaCarthy was a wack job but maybe socialism does lead to communism.

Well I sure am glad to have a provincial government because under out representative system BC might not even have roads if it was left up to the PMO in the last ten years. After the cuts that Martin made to Health and Education transfers we are lucky to have hospitals and schools.

More power to the provinces might be a good think.

We need foreign policy, military, and justice. These are the things best left to the Feds.

maplesyrup · March 10, 2004

Proportional Representation will control fairness in Canada's voting system.

The NDP is making quite a resurgence, not since Broadbent was leader have the NDP been been this strong. New leader Jack Layton is having a remarkably positive impact on the party's fortunes.

NDP eyes chances in Calgary ridings
Nystrom says the New Democratic Party is the only federal party that has gone up in the polls since the last federal election.

That shows people now see the NDP as a viable alternative, he says.

''They find the new Conservative Party too right wing, too extreme,'' he says. ''People like Joe Clark have left. It's really the Alliance Party with a new name.''

http://edmonton.cbc.ca/regional/servlet/Vi...e=edm_ndp040308

BigGunner · March 10, 2004

Proportional Representation will control fairness in Canada's voting system.
The NDP is making quite a resurgence, not since Broadbent was leader have the NDP been been this strong. New leader Jack Layton is having a remarkably positive impact on the party's fortunes.

NDP eyes chances in Calgary ridings

Nystrom says the New Democratic Party is the only federal party that has gone up in the polls since the last federal election.

That shows people now see the NDP as a viable alternative, he says.

''They find the new Conservative Party too right wing, too extreme,'' he says. ''People like Joe Clark have left. It's really the Alliance Party with a new name.''

http://edmonton.cbc.ca/regional/servlet/Vi...e=edm_ndp040308

Imagine that...the NDP seriously considering seats in Calgary...the one city that even Liberals fear to tread.

maplesyrup · March 10, 2004

Here is some additional big news for the NDP.

There is no question the NDP is on a roll these days. And their timing couldn't be better for a spring election.

I'm curious to hear which particular riding Monia will be running in.

Maher Arar's wife to announce NDP candidacy
Monia Mazigh, an Ottawa woman who led a year-long campaign to have her husband released from a Syrian prison, is expected to announce Wednesday she will run for the New Democratic Party in the next federal election.

Mazigh is married to Maher Arar, the Canadian who was deported to Syria by U.S. officials on suspicion of being connected to al-Qaeda.

http://cbc.ca/stories/2004/03/09/canada/ma...azigh_ndp040309

maplesyrup · March 10, 2004

Just heard on the CBC The National that Monia is going to run in John Manley's old seat - Ottawa South.

2000 election results

Ottawa South (LIB 23,203)

xJohn Manley LIB 26,590

Brad Darbyson CA 12,648

Kevin Lister PC 8,100

Jeannie Page NDP 3,468

Ron Whalen MP 699

James Hea NL 141

Marsha Fine ML 80

Mick Panesar COM 79

No kidding she is not running for the Liberals.

Ottawa is beginning to look quite interesting for the NDP.

willy · March 10, 2004

Arar was attached to Al-Qaeda. If we are to believe the CBC.

Good luck with that association.

maplesyrup · March 10, 2004

willy......here's a URL to some infomation on Mahar Arar.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/arar/ara..._statement.html

personal_ideaology · March 10, 2004

NDP are poised to make substantial gains in BC, particularly in the urban areas such as Vancouver and Victoria. One of the reasons is the current unpopularity of the BC Liberals who have been in freefall, and they are connected both with the federal Liberals and the CPC.
These are unbiased opinions of university political scientists

There is a good possibility the NDP might take 1/2 the seats in BC.

Coming from Vancouver and being left of centre, I find this paticular information hard to believe.

If the NDP makes gains it will be in the rural and interior ridings of British Columbia, the Provincial liberal party's strongest support at the moment is in Vancouver's lower fraser valley region, the liberal blowback will not come from most urban ridings.

The NDP in British Columbia also does not usually recieve the ethnic vote during federal elections, the Liberals normally do, and for this reason I perdict the liberals will hold on to ridings like Vancouver-South Burnaby.

Another reason why thier will be no major breakthrough in the Fraser Valley, is because despite the sponser ship scandel, Paul Martin still has a broad support out here. This means that the left of center vote in middle class communites like Port Moody/Coquitlam, will probably be split down the center allowing the CPC to sneak in.

Lastly, if the CPC elects Harper as their leader, the former Alliance with still retain alot of the protest vote in B.C.

Despite this, the NDP in urban areas has three shoe in's

1) Vancouver East

2) Burnaby-Douglas

3) New Westminster/Coquitlam

They also have a "very" good chance of knocking of CPC member Chuck Cadman off in -North Surrey

and with the unpopularity of Hedy Fry they could take Vancouver Centre.

Outside of the lower mainland the NDP will most likely regain Esquilmalt and Kamloops, possibly Skeena and a few others.

Lets also try to remember that the average University Proffesor tends to be a little more left leaning than your average folk.

So in total I think the NDP has the potential to win 7 or 8 seats in B.C. , 1/4 of the ridings yes, 1/2 no way!

Does anyone know how they will do in Atlantic Canada?