Canadian Political Polls

[Jobu]

Nanos has the Tories back up to an 11-point lead.

CPAC-Nanos Tracking CP 38, LP 27, NDP 21, BQ 8, GP 6 (ending September 22)

http://www.nikonthenumbers.com/topics/show/90

[LastViking]

...a blip or a trend?

TrendLines Research tracks the average of the 10 Seat Projection models.

[Topaz]

I'm not sure this is true but I was on a chatroom and people were saying that people against the Cons are saying that they would vote for Harper to the pollsters who call, to make Harpers think it may form a government again but at the voting poll, they will vote against him. I guess its true, don't believe the polls except the voting poll.

[OddSox]

I'm not sure this is true but I was on a chatroom and people were saying that people against the Cons are saying that they would vote for Harper to the pollsters who call, to make Harpers think it may form a government again but at the voting poll, they will vote against him. I guess its true, don't believe the polls except the voting poll.

People might be "planning" this, but I can't see how it could be effective. The pollsters only call a couple of hundred at a time and it's random - how many on here have actually been asked the question during this election?

[Bryan]

I'm not sure this is true but I was on a chatroom and people were saying that people against the Cons are saying that they would vote for Harper to the pollsters who call, to make Harpers think it may form a government again but at the voting poll, they will vote against him. I guess its true, don't believe the polls except the voting poll.

Why not? Most of the people who tell the pollsters that they will vote Green are lying, so wouldn't others do it as well?

[betsy]

People might be "planning" this, but I can't see how it could be effective. The pollsters only call a couple of hundred at a time and it's random - how many on here have actually been asked the question during this election?

It's a long shot. Is there anyone from here who ever got called? Besides I don't think they'd call the same people everytime.

Anyway one thing sure, the BC Nanos numbers are right. Today, the CTV journalist travelling with the Liberals to BC said that Dion is having a hard time forming a large rally, unlike Harper and Layton. Dion has now resorted to doing his campaigning in university campus because the students will gladly attend his campaign instead of sitting in class.

Edited September 25, 2008 by betsy

[Bryan]

People might be "planning" this, but I can't see how it could be effective. The pollsters only call a couple of hundred at a time and it's random - how many on here have actually been asked the question during this election?

I have, twice. Both times I gave a bogus answer.

To be fair, though, I have a strict personal policy of ALWAYS lying for any telephone survey. I just give any random answer other than what I really think. It's just because I fins people who call me at home for surveys annoying.

[OddSox]

I have, twice. Both times I gave a bogus answer.

To be fair, though, I have a strict personal policy of ALWAYS lying for any telephone survey. I just give any random answer other than what I really think. It's just because I fins people who call me at home for surveys annoying.

Heh, me too. I did get called once during the last election - I lied just for fun (but that's the only election call in 30+ years). It's when the caller has an obvious agenda (ie Export tobacco or Kraft Dinner or whatever) that it gets really fun...

[OddSox]

Heh, me too. I did get called once during the last election - I lied just for fun (but that's the only election call in 30+ years). It's when the caller has an obvious agenda (ie Export tobacco or Kraft Dinner or whatever) that it gets really fun...

To be honest, I didn't lie on the election call last time around. FWIW I told the truth. (not that anyone cares)

[M.Dancer]

Committed Voters - Canada (N=1027, MoE ± 3.1%, 19 times out of 20)

Conservative Party 40 (+3)

Liberal Party 25 (-1)

NDP 19 (-2)

BQ 9% (NC)

Green Party 8% (+1)

Undecided 15% (-1)

Todays nanos

[Jobu]

Todays nanos

Looks like a majority is on the horizon. There's still the debates to come, where I can't imagine there being any upside for Dion.

If the CPC can somehow turn the numbers up in Quebec after the recent slide, we could see a big majority.

[Vancouver King]

All recent polls are finally converging and it is not good news for the Liberals. Collapse of the Liberal vote not only ensures a CPC majority but in ridungs like mine - Vancouver Kingsway - it means another New Democrat will go to the Commons.

I hope the forthcoming parliament is noted for something above Harper's majority - NDP as Official Opposition party, although unlikely, would do nicely.

[capricorn]

Looks like a majority is on the horizon. There's still the debates to come, where I can't imagine there being any upside for Dion.

If the CPC can somehow turn the numbers up in Quebec after the recent slide, we could see a big majority.

It's possible that today's first guilty ruling in the terror trial held in Brampton, Ontario will push the Conservatives numbers up even more. The name of the youth found guilty cannot be made public because he was 17 years old at the time and considered a young offender.

The 20-year-old accused, who cannot be named because he was 17 at the time of his offences, showed little emotion as the verdict was read.

http://canadianpress.google.com/article/AL...z3xdOyPDcfpqCMg

Of course, the guilty plea will be appealed. But that is not what will stand out in the minds of Canadians as they digest the court's decision.

[Topaz]

There 's is a vast number of the "silent majority" in Canada and I still say its a minority and I really don't care with a minority government gets in. If Harper gets back in with a minority, then maybe he should resign as leader because he said he can't work with the oppositions, IF the Libs get in and Harper is the official opposition, yes we definitely won't get anything done, unless the Libs can work with the other two parties that Harper says that its impossible to do so.

[JerrySeinfeld]

There 's is a vast number of the "silent majority" in Canada and I still say its a minority and I really don't care with a minority government gets in. If Harper gets back in with a minority, then maybe he should resign as leader because he said he can't work with the oppositions, IF the Libs get in and Harper is the official opposition, yes we definitely won't get anything done, unless the Libs can work with the other two parties that Harper says that its impossible to do so.

If a minority government means the government can't get anything done, then damn it let's have a minority forever!!!!

Leave us alone!

[Moonbox]

There 's is a vast number of the "silent majority" in Canada and I still say its a minority and I really don't care with a minority government gets in. If Harper gets back in with a minority, then maybe he should resign as leader because he said he can't work with the oppositions, IF the Libs get in and Harper is the official opposition, yes we definitely won't get anything done, unless the Libs can work with the other two parties that Harper says that its impossible to do so.

This is a silly way to look at things. Even a renewed minority government would give Harper a renewed mandate. It effectively removes the opposition's ability to call an election on a frivolous issue just because polls favor them. Harper would have to do something tremendously stupid for an opposition to vote non-confidence and NOT feel voter backlash within a year or two of this election for calling another one so soon.

There is a huge benefit in a renewed minority but an even greater one in a majority government.

Harper said that the opposition wasn't willing to work with him, which they were quoted as saying. He did not say he wouldn't work with them. If Harper wins this election it gives him a stronger minority and shuts down the opposition for a time. They'll be even more afraid then they were recently to call another election.

[jdobbin]

Liberal vote continues to collapse nationally according to several polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli..._election,_2008

The Bloc seems to be staging a recovery.

[Smallc]

Liberal vote continues to collapse nationally according to several polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polli..._election,_2008

The Bloc seems to be staging a recovery.

According to analysis I've heard, it has to do with the CPC crime promises. They don't go over well in Quebec.

[Bryan]

According to analysis I've heard, it has to do with the CPC crime promises. They don't go over well in Quebec.

Quebec likes its crime?

[Smallc]

Quebec likes its crime?

No, they have a different view on how to fight it. Based on the homicide rate in Quebec City, they seem to have a better idea.

According to almost everything I've heard from almost every source, what the conservatives are proposing really looks good politically, but does nothing to help.

[jdobbin]

According to analysis I've heard, it has to do with the CPC crime promises. They don't go over well in Quebec.

I also heard it is the arts cuts.

However, at the beginning of the election that it was a mistake to count the Bloc out.

[Bryan]

I also heard it is the arts cuts.

That's hard to believe, considering the Conservatives increased arts funding by 19% over what the Liberals were doing.

It got good spin for a day or two, but the BS the opposition parties pulled this week does not stand up to scrutiny.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=726631

[Wild Bill]

That's hard to believe, considering the Conservatives increased arts funding by 19% over what the Liberals were doing.

It got good spin for a day or two, but the BS the opposition parties pulled this week does not stand up to scrutiny.

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=726631

Please, don't confuse the issue with facts! The people that believe that Harper has slashed arts funding tend to be artists! They are among the math-challenged. They simply won't believe you and will keep chugging along believing the same as they always have done.

You see, the "artistic" crowd have always been predominately left wing in their politics. They are not going to vote for Harper anyway and will say or do anything negative to attack him. Truth goes out the window. Their guys are saints and all others are demons.

The good news is that they don't represent the majority. Most Canadians are too busy working hard to make ends meet to have sympathy for the Barbara Streisands of the world.

[White Doors]

No, they have a different view on how to fight it. Based on the homicide rate in Quebec City, they seem to have a better idea.

According to almost everything I've heard from almost every source, what the conservatives are proposing really looks good politically, but does nothing to help.

You have to learn to question the 'experts' then..

By that logic smallc, if increased sentencing will do NOTHING to help, then ANY sentence must not help either.

Hard to commit repeat offences when you are in jail, don't ya think?

[Bryan]

Hard to commit repeat offences when you are in jail, don't ya think?

Even tougher if you're dead.