Canadian Political Polls

[Smallc]

Even tougher if you're dead.

And that is why people on the left and in the centre are nervous of Conservative majority government.

[Smallc]

You have to learn to question the 'experts' then..

By that logic smallc, if increased sentencing will do NOTHING to help, then ANY sentence must not help either.

Hard to commit repeat offences when you are in jail, don't ya think?

Whatever Quebec and many parts of Europe are doing seems to be working. Tougher sentences aren't always the answer for everything, and neither is charging 8 year olds with adult crimes.

[Moonbox]

Whatever Quebec and many parts of Europe are doing seems to be working. Tougher sentences aren't always the answer for everything, and neither is charging 8 year olds with adult crimes.

Please, elaborate and support this statement.

Your opinion on what 'seems' to be working is worthless unless you explain and support it.

[Smallc]

Please, elaborate and support this statement.

Your opinion on what 'seems' to be working is worthless unless you explain and support it.

In 2007 Quebec City had (I think) 0 homicides. I'm not sure what they're doing. Maybe they're not doing anything? If they are doing something though, we should be looking to it as an example of what to do elsewhere (and yes, I realize that every area is different).

[noahbody]

And that is why people on the left and in the centre are nervous of Conservative majority government.

The only way to find out is to give them a majority. If they bring the death penalty in, vote them out. Number of people harmed: 0.

[Smallc]

The only way to find out is to give them a majority. If they bring the death penalty in, vote them out. Number of people harmed: 0.

I'm not personally afraid of the Conservatives forming majority, but many are. I have such a hard time in that I'm usually on both sides of an issue, and so I'm never really sure what I think about things.

Edited September 26, 2008 by Smallc

[White Doors]

Whatever Quebec and many parts of Europe are doing seems to be working. Tougher sentences aren't always the answer for everything, and neither is charging 8 year olds with adult crimes.

Oh really? So rioting suburbs where cars are burned routinely and areas where the police and ambulances refuse to go is what you call the justice system 'working'?

Go race riots! lol

I don't seem to remember any race riots in Texas. I do remember them in Quebec and France.

Go figure I guess.

[myata]

Much of that information was already discussed at length in the other threads (e.g Gun Control). Such as that the center of "tough justice" in the developed world - the US - (up to the ultimate, proposed by somebody here - and not exactly shunned by Harpers' Conservatives, given their subtle changes of policy w.r.t. death penalty abroad) also has consistently highest violent crime rates. Or that Canada's incarceration rate is already among the highest among the developed countries, while its violent crime rate definitely isn't. The asnwer, as has been already pointed out, is in persistent meticulous adressing specific crime challenges - most importantly, gang related, with an array of measures, rather than fanning out non existent general crime scare, with a quick "get tough" solution. But why do I have that feeling that scared population, that won't listen to the facts and arguments from experts in "ivory towers" (quoting Harper), and instead would follow a leader promising a quick and easy to grasp solution to a complex long term problem, is much more of the electorate Conservatives would like to see?

Edited September 26, 2008 by myata

[White Doors]

given their subtle changes of policy w.r.t. death penalty abroad) also has consistently highest violent crime rates

You are assuming that the chicken comes before the egg.

your premise is blinding you to other possibilities.

[jdobbin]

That's hard to believe, considering the Conservatives increased arts funding by 19% over what the Liberals were doing.

It got good spin for a day or two, but the BS the opposition parties pulled this week does not stand up to scrutiny.

I agree. The Tories are overspending on all programs.

Harper decided to cut some arts programs for political reasons and this has alarmed some in Quebec who want more arms length roles in funding.

[Smallc]

Oh really? So rioting suburbs where cars are burned routinely and areas where the police and ambulances refuse to go is what you call the justice system 'working'?

Go race riots! lol

I don't seem to remember any race riots in Texas. I do remember them in Quebec and France.

Go figure I guess.

I thought that was Montreal? I was talking specifically of what Quebec City is doing.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ipsos poll:

http://www.canada.com/topics/news/features...f5-399ce2c232b7

"What's happening right now is that both the Conservatives and the NDP have given voters very good, affirmative reasons for voting for them," said Darrell Bricker, Ipsos CEO. "People who are opposed to the agenda Stephen Harper is eventually going to bring to Canada are finding a very happy home in the NDP. For the Conservatives, it's not that they're growing so much, it's that the Liberals are falling apart."

Thirty-nine per cent of the respondents said they would vote Conservative, about the same number as a similar poll a week ago. Just 23 per cent of respondents said they would vote Liberal, a drop of four percentage points in a week while 18 per cent would pick the NDP, a gain for that party of three percentage points.

It is more and more looking like the Liberals will lose as big as I predicted at the beginning of the election.

The NDP could very well end up Official Opposition. The end of the Liberal party is very much a possibility.

[Smallc]

Angus Reid just put out a poll, reported on CTVNN, that the CPC is at 40%, the LPC is at 21%, the NDP is at 21%, the BQ is at 10%, and the GPC is at 7%

Interesting is the rise in the bloc. Very interesting is that the NDP and Liberals are tied. This really could be bad for the Liberals.

At these levels it would probably make the BQ the official opposition and would put the Liberals in 4th place according to the not necessarily accurate Hill and Knowlton predictor. It would also mean a CPC majority.

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca/predictor/

Edited September 27, 2008 by Smallc

[jdobbin]

Angus Reid just put out a poll, reported on CTVNN, that the CPC is at 41%, the LPC is at 21%, the NDP is at 21%, the BQ is at 10%, and the GPC is at 7%

Interesting is the rise in the bloc. Very interesting is that the NDP and Liberals are tied. This really could be bad for the Liberals.

At these levels it would probably make the BQ the official opposition and would put the Liberals in 4th place according to the not necessarily accurate Hill and Knowlton predictor. It would also mean a CPC majority.

Wouldn't be surprised at a fourth place finish.

The majority the Tories could win might be massive.

[Vancouver King]

Wouldn't be surprised at a fourth place finish.

The majority the Tories could win might be massive.

Hard to imagine Toronto's GTA abandoning Liberals for Tories. Also, resurgence of Bloc will put brakes on significant seat increases for CPC in Quebec - while, incidentally, also isolating the province in the context of forthcoming substantial - but not massive - Conservative majority.

The real horse race now is for Official Oppostion party and the Bloc, NDP and Libs are all conceivably in the 45+ seat realm. An NDP second place finish will change Canadian politics forever - imagine voters given clear policy alternatives by a now-respectable party only one step away from power.

Your prediction of a permanently hobbled Liberal Party could very well come true.

[Smallc]

Hard to imagine Toronto's GTA abandoning Liberals for Tories. Also, resurgence of Bloc will put brakes on significant seat increases for CPC in Quebec

If the CPC gets as high of numbers as this poll says, as long as they hold what they have in Quebec, thats good enough.

[jdobbin]

Hard to imagine Toronto's GTA abandoning Liberals for Tories. Also, resurgence of Bloc will put brakes on significant seat increases for CPC in Quebec - while, incidentally, also isolating the province in the context of forthcoming substantial - but not massive - Conservative majority.

I always said the Bloc are hard to completely bury. You could be right.

The real horse race now is for Official Oppostion party and the Bloc, NDP and Libs are all conceivably in the 45+ seat realm. An NDP second place finish will change Canadian politics forever - imagine voters given clear policy alternatives by a now-respectable party only one step away from power.

My prediction still had the Liberals winning Official Opposition but that now looks like a toss up.

An NDP second place finish would mean the end of the Liberals as a national party in all likelihood. I don't know that it would mean the NDP would have the support to win government. We could be seeing many, many years of Tory rule.

Your prediction of a permanently hobbled Liberal Party could very well come true.

I have seen it happen in Manitoba.

This past election the provincial Liberals had the most money ever for a campaign, ran a full slate, had one of the best platforms according to a number of analysts and were completely blown out of the water once again by a populist NDP.

I don't know that Layton is a populist enough for the Liberal vote to migrate completely to him. Certainly not enough of the vote to unseat the Tories.

[Vancouver King]

Newest Nanos numbers - they seem like an unwelcome pothole on the majority highway for Stephen Harper.

CPC - 36%

Libs - 27

NDP - 19

Bloc - 9

Grn - 9

"With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for Harper Conservatives. "

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

[betsy]

Newest Nanos numbers - they seem like an unwelcome pothole on the majority highway for Stephen Harper.

CPC - 36%

Libs - 27

NDP - 19

Bloc - 9

Grn - 9

"With their 15 point margin last week, the campaign was looking like a runaway freight train for Harper Conservatives. "

http://www.nanosresearch.com/main.asp

It looks like the Liberals got a boost and the Cons came down a bit. But what about the other polls also done by Nanos as shown in that link you've provided? I'm particularly referring to the polls on the party moslt likely to deliver the promise and about feeling of security. Harper is way ahead on those.

Lately, Layton had been focusing too much on Harper, which might have been a big mistake. Although possible, it is quite unlikely for Layton to become the Prime Minister. If I were Layton at this point, I'd concentrate on Dion. Anyway the real objective of Layton is to become the official opposition.

[jdobbin]

Latest Leger poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080929/...politics_quebec

The pollster previously had the Conservatives two points ahead of the Bloc in the French-speaking province. But the separatists now are ahead, by 33 percent to 26 percent.

The Bloc seeks independence for Quebec but cannot achieve it in the federal Parliament.

The Conservatives still have a strong lead in national polls. but this latest poll suggests their scope for strong gains in Canada's second-most populous province will be limited, if this poll holds true on the October 14 election day.

The Liberals are polling at 23 percent in Quebec, the left-wing New Democrats at 12 percent and the Greens at 5 percent.

I guess this confirms the comeback the Bloc seems to have had in the first week. The arts cuts framed as a Quebec issue might be working.

[blueblood]

Latest Leger poll.

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/080929/...politics_quebec

I guess this confirms the comeback the Bloc seems to have had in the first week. The arts cuts framed as a Quebec issue might be working.

The French language debate is now even more critical for Harper to win.

[Vancouver King]

It looks like the Liberals got a boost and the Cons came down a bit. But what about the other polls also done by Nanos as shown in that link you've provided?

Those old figures are as relevent as yesterday's newspapers. When a downturn of significance - and 3% off one party's column is significant - there is always the possibility that party's popularity will stay there, get worse or bounce back up. If it stays at 36% it almost certainly spells another minority for Harper.

However, the campaign so far has steered clear of the issues - environment, Afghanistan etc. - which favors the personal attacks approach of the Tories, enhancing the possibilities of a bounce back.

Lately, Layton had been focusing too much on Harper, which might have been a big mistake. Although possible, it is quite unlikely for Layton to become the Prime Minister. If I were Layton at this point, I'd concentrate on Dion. Anyway the real objective of Layton is to become the official opposition.

It's tough to argue with success and directing his party's resources at the govt instead of the weak opposition leader has so far paid dividends. Here in B.C. the NDP are set to upset in up to 10 ridings, including the defeat of Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre.

[independent]

delete

Edited September 30, 2008 by independent

[independent]

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/

Conservatives are projected to have 15 seats short of a majority. I understand that undecided has risen. and still a long way to go. the NDP seem buoyed by their popular vote but that does not translate into seats. Green has 8.9% of the vote and that translates as 0 seats.

[Vancouver King]

The big question is whether a new campaign focus on issues during the upcoming debates will carve support off Tory popularity. The fact that Harper has avoided any talk of the environment or Afghanistan up to now tells me he realizes his party is vulnerable on these issues.

Voters have other concerns besides the economy and leadership.