Canadian Political Polls

[blueblood]

Ekos poll numbers up to Sunday.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCATRE4950BI20081006

If Harper gets a minority, parliament is going to be a bigger gong show than it was last year.

Harper had the chance to light up Duceppe in the French debate. That didn't happen. Harper I think needs Dumont's help to win Quebec, and that isn't happening.

With a stronger more powerful NDP in a minority gov't and a stronger Bloc, I can see someone like Baird sharpening his knife.

[jdobbin]

With a stronger more powerful NDP in a minority gov't and a stronger Bloc, I can see someone like Baird sharpening his knife.

And bringing down the government in a few days. Good job. Guess the Governor General will have to be looking at the precedence for asking the Opposition if they want to form a government. If not, let's do it all over again and see if the economy becomes an even bigger issue for Harper to deal with.

[blueblood]

And bringing down the government in a few days. Good job. Guess the Governor General will have to be looking at the precedence for asking the Opposition if they want to form a government. If not, let's do it all over again and see if the economy becomes an even bigger issue for Harper to deal with.

Another election doesn't bode well for the Liberals either, it would make for an even stronger NDP. Harper should have dropped the writ in June when the greenshift was announced. And he threw away his chance to throw Duceppe in his place.

The other party's plans for the economy are far worse than Harper's, and Harper is pissing away prime campaigning time to waste time with his family. Harper would almost be better off blowing up his campaign and letting the opposition bear the brunt of this economic mess. Tory brass must not be impressed with this campaign. Harper needs a knockout and fast.

Harper needs Mario Dumont and his corner to win Quebec and that is not happening.

Edited October 6, 2008 by blueblood

[capricorn]

Harper would almost be better off blowing up his campaign and letting the opposition bear the brunt of this economic mess.

Should the Liberals win this election by a few seats over the Conservatives, Dion would remain leader. I wonder how this would sit with Iggy and Rae, and other leadership hopefuls. Internal rifts within the party would be sure to deepen.

Harper needs a knockout and fast.

This will come tomorrow with the release of the Conservative platform. As someone said on another forum, the advantages of a late release are that the Liberals could not steal any ideas from the platform, there is little time for the media and, the opposition to fully analyze and react to the platform before October 14. In addition, the platform will dominate in the media.

Voters who only tune into the election in the last week prior to the election and those who are undecided will compare Harper's promises to the high spending promises of the opposition parties. When those voters enter the voting booth, Conservative promises will be prominent in their minds simply because it was released closer to voting day and it made headlines in the media.

The polls leading up to election day will tell whether this strategy worked.

[Vancouver King]

Today's latest Nanos poll:

CPC - 34%

Libs - 29

NDP - 21

Bloc - 11

Grn - 6

Only change is NDP nibbling away at Liberal support. CBC said today Layton's gang will flood the airwaves with $7 million worth of new anti-Harper ads in the final week. The Liberals can only dream of such fund raising prowess.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-6-2008E.pdf

[jdobbin]

Another election doesn't bode well for the Liberals either, it would make for an even stronger NDP. Harper should have dropped the writ in June when the greenshift was announced. And he threw away his chance to throw Duceppe in his place.

Timing is evertything. In the spring, the Tories were coming off fairly slack polls. They wanted to spend money over the entire summer to rally support. They did that and the polls only jumped when he announced. Some say he peaked too soon but I think the unexpected has really put Harper on his heels.

People expected a possible recession but there was quite a lot of smugness that somehow Canada was immune. I don't know that many expected we'd be sideswiped so hard, so quickly and so fundamentally as we are now.

The other party's plans for the economy are far worse than Harper's, and Harper is pissing away prime campaigning time to waste time with his family. Harper would almost be better off blowing up his campaign and letting the opposition bear the brunt of this economic mess. Tory brass must not be impressed with this campaign. Harper needs a knockout and fast.

He is no longer just fighting Opposition leaders but the general feeling that he himself might not have the answers to ensure Canadians don't suffer in the downturn. He can't knock out a bad economy.

As far as his economic plan goes, it is your opinion that it is the best.

Harper needs Mario Dumont and his corner to win Quebec and that is not happening.

With a week left, I think that people in Quebec are not going to listen to Mario Dumont. They are as concerned as anyone, I imagine, about if Harper will represent their interests.

[jdobbin]

Should the Liberals win this election by a few seats over the Conservatives, Dion would remain leader. I wonder how this would sit with Iggy and Rae, and other leadership hopefuls. Internal rifts within the party would be sure to deepen.

A Liberal win seems unlikely. I think everyone agreed pretty much from the onset that it was unlikely. The question was if Harper could secure a majority. At the moment now it looks like no.

Is Harper's position so secure that people won't ask if it possible that he will ever win a majority?

This will come tomorrow with the release of the Conservative platform. As someone said on another forum, the advantages of a late release are that the Liberals could not steal any ideas from the platform, there is little time for the media and, the opposition to fully analyze and react to the platform before October 14. In addition, the platform will dominate in the media.

You seem to have a lot of faith in this amazing platform. The other platforms in this election didn't stir anyone. I have never seen the release of entire platform stir anyone. It is why policies are announced over the entire campaign to focus on the issue and build momentum.

Voters who only tune into the election in the last week prior to the election and those who are undecided will compare Harper's promises to the high spending promises of the opposition parties. When those voters enter the voting booth, Conservative promises will be prominent in their minds simply because it was released closer to voting day and it made headlines in the media.

The polls leading up to election day will tell whether this strategy worked.

You have a lot of faith in that approach. If people do focus on the last week, they are likely to see Harper on the defensive about the economy. The Opposition doesn't have to say a peep.

[blueblood]

Today's latest Nanos poll:

CPC - 34%

Libs - 29

NDP - 21

Bloc - 11

Grn - 6

Only change is NDP nibbling away at Liberal support. CBC said today Layton's gang will flood the airwaves with $7 million worth of new anti-Harper ads in the final week. The Liberals can only dream of such fund raising prowess.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-6-2008E.pdf

the libs are doing better in quebec. shows what a good debate does.

[jdobbin]

the libs are doing better in quebec. shows what a good debate does.

My opinion was that Dion lost the debate but he seems to have benefited from the exceeding the low expectations.

Edited October 7, 2008 by jdobbin

[blueblood]

A Liberal win seems unlikely. I think everyone agreed pretty much from the onset that it was unlikely. The question was if Harper could secure a majority. At the moment now it looks like no.

Is Harper's position so secure that people won't ask if it possible that he will ever win a majority?

You seem to have a lot of faith in this amazing platform. The other platforms in this election didn't stir anyone. I have never seen the release of entire platform stir anyone. It is why policies are announced over the entire campaign to focus on the issue and build momentum.

You have a lot of faith in that approach. If people do focus on the last week, they are likely to see Harper on the defensive about the economy. The Opposition doesn't have to say a peep.

I agree, Harper needed a strong French language debate, he went on cruise control in the wrong debate.

Harper knew the economy was going to be in rough shape, he said it a while ago at Christmas time. It's all down to who can sell to voters what the best strategy to deal with it is. It's hard for Harper to have a strategy when he doesn't have a platform.

Harper should be figuring out the best way to give a crash course in economics and take the wind out of Layton and Duceppe's sails.

[capricorn]

A Liberal win seems unlikely.

Agreed. But it's entertaining just the same to imagine what would happen in the close Liberal family if they did win.

The question was if Harper could secure a majority. At the moment now it looks like no.

I'll settle for a minority Conservative government over a minority Liberal government.

You seem to have a lot of faith in this amazing platform.

Yes I do.

The other platforms in this election didn't stir anyone.

Would you agree that the Green Shift is part of the platform? I would think yes. Are you saying that the Green Shift did not stir anyone, as in spur reaction?

It is why policies are announced over the entire campaign to focus on the issue and build momentum. You have a lot of faith in that approach.

You seem to be agreeing with this strategy as well.

[jdobbin]

Agreed. But it's entertaining just the same to imagine what would happen in the close Liberal family if they did win.

I imagine that if Dion won that Harper would be asked to step down.

I'll settle for a minority Conservative government over a minority Liberal government.

I imagine that if Harper does get another minority that there will be questions as to how long Harper can continue to lead the party and not deliver a majority

Yes I do.

Look forward to seeing you explain how amazing it is and why it is the answer to all the Tory woes.

Would you agree that the Green Shift is part of the platform? I would think yes. Are you saying that the Green Shift did not stir anyone, as in spur reaction?

One policy. Not the entire platform.

You seem to be agreeing with this strategy as well.

Not agreeing or disagreeing with it. Just saying what the strategy has been in the past. Sometimes it works for a party, sometimes not. Outside influences can take a party off message.

[normanchateau]

Latest Ekos poll has Conservatives at 33%, Liberals at 26% and NDP at 19% federally.

In Ontario, it's Conservatives 33%, Liberals 33% and NDP at 20%.

In Quebec, it's BQ 42%, Liberals 21%, Conservatives 17% and NDP at 15%.

http://www.ekoselection.com/index.php/2008...october-6-2008/

Given that more than 50% of Quebecers watched the French debate, the reversal in Harper's fortunes in Quebec is no surprise. Duceppe wisely pointed out to Quebecers that Harper wanted Canada to invade Iraq in 2003 while Harper squirmed and grinned weakly but failed to refute the point. The irony here is that Harper now wants, Layton-like, to cut and run from Afghanistan but the damage done in Quebec I suspect is now irreversible.

[myata]

Tories support continues to slide:

MSN News: Harris-Decima poll

Tories: 31%, -10% off their campaign high

Liberals: 26% (+1).

Liberals are now in the second place in Quebec and shot up to the first in Ontario (where Conservatives are neck in neck with NDP for the second/third).

Maybe, after all, an open, honest approach would have worked better than the strategy of late night tricks and ploys and laws nobody's going to heed? As promised, but never delivered by this transparent government?

[Vancouver King]

Tories support continues to slide:

MSN News: Harris-Decima poll

Tories: 31%, -10% off their campaign high

Liberals: 26% (+1).

Liberals are now in the second place in Quebec and shot up to the first in Ontario (where Conservatives are neck in neck with NDP for the second/third).

Maybe, after all, an open, honest approach would have worked better than the strategy of late night tricks and ploys and laws nobody's going to heed? As promised, but never delivered by this transparent government?

The quest for majority govt is over. The expectation of Tories bettering their 2006 showing lies in shambles. The PM's adamant refusal to display public empathy toward nervous Canadians - even if it amounts to an empty hand holding gesture - reduces the campaign question to this: can what's left of CPC momentum allow it a photo finish over rejuvenated Liberals?

[jdobbin]

Given that more than 50% of Quebecers watched the French debate, the reversal in Harper's fortunes in Quebec is no surprise. Duceppe wisely pointed out to Quebecers that Harper wanted Canada to invade Iraq in 2003 while Harper squirmed and grinned weakly but failed to refute the point. The irony here is that Harper now wants, Layton-like, to cut and run from Afghanistan but the damage done in Quebec I suspect is now irreversible.

I can honestly say that I was wrong assuming that nothing could stop the Tories from winning massively and the Liberals being decimated.

I just didn't think the economy was going to be a major negative influence given the timing. It seemed more like looming and ominous clouds rather than a torrential downpour that was going to hit mid-election.

For Harper, the major decline seem to be linked strongly with the collapse in the markets. Granted, there have been some gaffes and the campaign has not been as nearly smooth as their last one but it looked like the Liberals were on a freight train to the basement.

As Clinton used to say "It's the economy, stupid." The doubts from the electorate about Tory management of the economy is dragging them down.

There has not been a ringing endorsement of the Liberals as a result but the Liberals are recovering as more people seem to want to hold back from giving the Tories a blank check in terms of a majority.

[jdobbin]

Tories support continues to slide:

Maybe, after all, an open, honest approach would have worked better than the strategy of late night tricks and ploys and laws nobody's going to heed? As promised, but never delivered by this transparent government?

Still worried about splits in some ridings. What seems clear is that the Tories appear too late to breakthrough in Quebec.

Once again, Duceppe is the wily leader with a consistent play-off record.

The Liberal recovery is coming more as a rejection of Harper than from an embrace from the electorate.

Layton has run the smoothest campaign despite a few candidates being turfed. He may be holding steady right now in part because some people might who are centrist fear he might be too anti-business. Layton really stumped yesterday when asked who in his caucus would be a good finance minister. Not exactly what people want to hear from someone who is running to win.

[jdobbin]

reduces the campaign question to this: can what's left of CPC momentum allow it a photo finish over rejuvenated Liberals?

Rejuvenated is probably too strong a word: let's say in recovery. heh

If Harper falls below popular vote counts from 2006, will he step down? Will he step down if he receives a smaller minority? Will his party ask him to step down?

[Vancouver King]

Rejuvenated is probably too strong a word: let's say in recovery. heh

If Harper falls below popular vote counts from 2006, will he step down? Will he step down if he receives a smaller minority? Will his party ask him to step down?

Now it's my turn to admit I'm wrong. I predicted a Harper minority but I'm changing that right now to a Dion minority on the basis of these new Nanos numbers:

CPC 34%

Libs 31

NDP 18

Bloc 11

grn 6

[normanchateau]

Now it's my turn to admit I'm wrong. I predicted a Harper minority but I'm changing that right now to a Dion minority on the basis of these new Nanos numbers:

CPC 34%

Libs 31

NDP 18

Bloc 11

grn 6

I just looked at the Nanos numbers as well and am startled that the gap has narrowed to 3 points. The Liberals now lead the Conservatives 40% to 31% in Ontario. The Bloc as at an astounding 46% in Quebec.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election/CPAC...ber-7-2008E.pdf

Harper's reluctance to acknowledge today's economic realities along with the French language debate was the worst thing that could have happened to Harper. While the English language debate, which most Canadians missed, had little impact, the French debate saved Canada from a right wing majority government.

[jdobbin]

Now it's my turn to admit I'm wrong. I predicted a Harper minority but I'm changing that right now to a Dion minority on the basis of these new Nanos numbers:

Very interesting Nanos numbers.

I'll look at the aggregates later in the day. Ekos has the largest rolling sample size but I admit that I respect Nanos for the most part in their polling.

Let's see if this amazing platform of the Tories has any legs.

I'd be shocked out of my tree if Dion won a minority. Since 2006, I'd said a Tory minority seemed inevitable. I based it on the long climb the Liberals needed to get out of the mire in Quebec. That was compounded by the antipathy many Quebers held for Dion over the Clarity Act.

I felt the timing of the election changed everything but unlike the RCMP announcement of the investigation into Goodale, the economic announcements just keep piling on day after day Harper is suffering for it.

[PoliticalCitizen]

Ipsos Reid poll results for second choices for voters take on oct 3

NDP 27%

Liberals 26%

Greens 22%

Bloc 18%

Tories 14%

The Tories biggest chance to improve results is in Quebec where 25% of the Bloc supports have the conservatives as 2nd choice.

The biggest threat for the Liberals is the NDP who are targeting Liberal ridings for the NDP are the 2nd choice.

22% for the Greens as the second choice? Nice!

[normanchateau]

I can honestly say that I was wrong assuming that nothing could stop the Tories from winning massively and the Liberals being decimated.

I just didn't think the economy was going to be a major negative influence given the timing. It seemed more like looming and ominous clouds rather than a torrential downpour that was going to hit mid-election.

For Harper, the major decline seem to be linked strongly with the collapse in the markets. Granted, there have been some gaffes and the campaign has not been as nearly smooth as their last one but it looked like the Liberals were on a freight train to the basement.

As Clinton used to say "It's the economy, stupid." The doubts from the electorate about Tory management of the economy is dragging them down.

There has not been a ringing endorsement of the Liberals as a result but the Liberals are recovering as more people seem to want to hold back from giving the Tories a blank check in terms of a majority.

I was certainly wrong as well. In the early stages of the campaign, the momentum was clearly in favour of Harper as the Conservatives hit 40% while the Liberals concurrently appeared to be in free fall. There was every reason to assume that the trend would continue given Dion's English skills and Harper's incumbency advantage.

The economy is certainly a major factor in the current CPC decline but I think other factors are playing a significant role. For example, the opposition parties have only recently reminded Canadians that Harper wanted not only to go to war over Iraq but actually went on US television in 2003, a very unCanadian and unpatriotic action, to inform Americans that the Canadian government should have joined Bush in invading Iraq. Dion's focus on the economy has helped Dion but I think he should have pointed out Harper's similarities to Bush long ago. Duceppe has no problem successfully employing this strategy but Dion is far too much of a gentleman in failing to remind Canadians that Harper is a right wing, out-of-control spending, social conservative.

There is still a chance that Harper can turn things around if he comes up with an economic plan but he runs the risk of being accused of panicking given his response to Dion in the debates. My prediction now is a reduced Harper minority. He'll pick up some seats but will lose more. In my own riding of Vancouver Quadra, there is still a chance that Harper could take the riding. In the 2008 Quadra byelection, the CPC candidate lost by only 151 votes. Today my neighbourhood has about four times as many Conservative as Liberal signs so this could become a Liberal loss.

[capricorn]

This is just great, and I do mean great. Liberals and their supporters are lulling themselves into a false sense of security. This could not have turned out any better.

[jdobbin]

This is just great, and I do mean great. Liberals and their supporters are lulling themselves into a false sense of security. This could not have turned out any better.

Part of the master plan, huh?