U.S. Election Polls

[jbg]

Not wrong, but Obama can nail down NY and CA by picking Hillary as veep. Then it's just a blues states - red states game....again.

If Obama has to so much lift a finger to hold NY and CA he's finished.

[Shady]

McCain creeps ahead, 46% to 44%

PRINCETON, NJ -- It's official: Barack Obama has received no bounce in voter support out of his selection of Sen. Joe Biden to be his vice presidential running mate.

Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 23-25, the first three-day period falling entirely after Obama's Saturday morning vice presidential announcement, shows 46% of national registered voters backing John McCain and 44% supporting Obama, not appreciably different from the previous week's standing for both candidates. This is the first time since Obama clinched the nomination in early June, though, that McCain has held any kind of advantage over Obama in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

Gallup

[jdobbin]

Latest polls on the election:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/200...01/1322961.aspx

Two new polls of note out today… CBS/New York Times has Obama with a slight bounce, up 48%-40%. An earlier poll, showed Obama up 45%-42%. CNN/Opinion Research, however, has Obama up just one point, 49%-48%

Both surveys were conducted Aug. 29-31. Obama's convention speech was made on Thursday, Aug. 28th; Palin was picked the next morning, Friday, Aug. 29th.

The five-point post-convention jump is the biggest for a Democrat in the CBS poll since 1996 when Bill Clinton also saw a 5-point increase. It shows a big swing in independents. McCain had led with the group in the last poll by 12 percentage points, but now Obama leads with them by 7.

It also finds Obama beats McCain, 63%-41%, on who most “understands the needs and problems of people like you.” And Obama got a boost on toughness after the convention. On, “Is he tough enough?” just 48% said he was in early August, but now 58% say so. Though Obama saw an increase in the commander-in-chief question, McCain still beats him by plenty -- 45%-29% say McCain is very likely to be an effective commander in chief. 19% say McCain's not likely to be effective; 34% say the same of Obama.

[jdobbin]

Latest Gallup poll.

http://voices.kansascity.com/node/1968

Tuesday's new Gallup Poll delivers some good news for Barack Obama: Americans are trusting him more and more to lead the country. And also...

A lot of Hillary Clinton's supporters didn't mean what they said when they threatened to vote for John McCain.

According to the poll, a higher percentage of Clinton's supporters now say they will support Obama.

Overall, Obama still leads McCain, 49-43 percent, the same as Gallup's Labor Day poll.

[moderateamericain]

Latest Gallup poll.

http://voices.kansascity.com/node/1968

Only poll that means a crap to me is on election day.

[jdobbin]

Only poll that means a crap to me is on election day.

I've heard that before many times. It is why I placed the post in an thread called election polls because there are some who don't want to read them.

[moderateamericain]

I've heard that before many times. It is why I placed the post in an thread called election polls because there are some who don't want to read them.

Yeah fair enough, some people do buy into em tho

I think the last post said 48 to 44 percent. Wonder where the sampling was taken. and what the standard deviation was. If the sample was among Liberal New York city I would say its slightly skewed.

[jdobbin]

I think the last post said 48 to 44 percent. Wonder where the sampling was taken. and what the standard deviation was. If the sample was among Liberal New York city I would say its slightly skewed.

They say the poll was national. I have no reason to think it was all New York.

This poll was conducted among a random sample of 875 adults nationwide, including 781 registered voters, interviewed by telephone August 29-31, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points; for registered voters the sampling error could be plus or minus four percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.

[moderateamericain]

They say the poll was national. I have no reason to think it was all New York.

Fair enough but a 3 percent Deviation. Could be up to a 6 percent swing either way.

so base 44 Mccain to 48 Obama could really be

47 mccain, 45 Obama

or

51 Obama 41 Mccain

I guess my point is one shows Mccain kicking ass the other Obama, you gotta take those with a grain of salt.

[jdobbin]

I guess my point is one shows Mccain kicking ass the other Obama, you gotta take those with a grain of salt.

All true. However, ignoring the polls completely is like ignoring gathering storm clouds. Don't be surprised when it rains.

[jdobbin]

From CNN's poll of polls:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/...to-four-points/

Obama now leads McCain by four percentage points – 47 percent to 43 percent — with 10 percent undecided about their choice for president. Since the previous CNN poll of polls released Wednesday, Obama has dropped two percentage points – from 49 percent percent previously to his current support level of 47 percent – while McCain’s support remains steady at 43 percent since Wednesday.

[bush_cheney2004]

Ahhh...poll watchers...bless their hearts...now it's all tied up says this one:

(CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

[kimmy]

Ahhh...poll watchers...bless their hearts...now it's all tied up says this one:

(CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

...so like I was saying, that MILF and her skank daughter and her retarded baby are running that party into the ground.

-k

[Shady]

...so like I was saying, that MILF and her skank daughter and her retarded baby are running that party into the ground.

-k

Nice!

But...but...but, I thought that pick was as bad as Dan Quayle?

[Black Dog]

...so like I was saying, that MILF and her skank daughter and her retarded baby are running that party into the ground.

Yeah, no one could have predicted a post-convention bounce. No one's even heard of such a thing before.

[jdobbin]

Yeah, no one could have predicted a post-convention bounce. No one's even heard of such a thing before.

He did get a bounce but economic reports are dragging people down and maybe affecting Republican votes.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/erbe/2008/09/0...d-hurt-him.html

"Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Tuesday through Thursday finds Barack Obama with a four-percentage-point lead over John McCain in the presidential preferences of registered voters, 48 percent to 44 percent. While the difference between today's result and Thursday's 49 percent to 42 percent lead for Obama is not statistically significant, some of the broader shifts seen over the past 10 days, spanning both parties' national conventions, have been meaningful."

"The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows the beginning of John McCain's convention bounce and the race is essentially back where it was before Barack Obama's bounce. Obama now attracts 46 percent of the vote while McCain earns 45 percent. When 'leaners' are included, it's Obama 48 percent, McCain 46 percent."

[Shady]

This is just the beginning of Palinmania!

[Guest American Woman]

The latest political polls show Obama with a projected 250 electoral votes and McCain with a projected 237 electoral votes.

[jbg]

The latest political polls show Obama with a projected 250 electoral votes and McCain with a projected 237 electoral votes.

I disagree with doubting that Virginia (13), Nevada (5) and/or Colorado (9) are going for McCain. Clearly they are as is "no data" states West Virginia (5), South Dakota (3), Wyoming (3) and Idaho (4). On the other hand, New Hampshire (4) and "no data" states Maryland (10), Delaware (3) (remember Biden), Hawaii (4) and Vermont (3) are going to Obama. This would make the total 274 McCain, 266 Obama. I disagree with calling Wisconsin (10) or Iowa (7) for Obama as well.

Thus, while Palin's position on many issues makes my skin crawl, I expect a McCain-Palin victory.

[jdobbin]

McCain gets bounce after convention.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/07/ga...-ma-over-obama/

John McCain has taken a slight lead over Barack Obama, 48-45 percent, according to the latest Gallup Daily Tracking poll out Sunday. It is the largest advantage for McCain, though still within the 2-point margin of error, since May.

The 48 percent also registers the largest raw number McCain has received in the poll since Gallup started its daily tracking of the two presidential candidates in March. McCain matched that number in May.

Edited September 8, 2008 by jdobbin

[August1991]

Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.

McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

USA Today

Wow. I expected a bounce but not as much as this. I think this is an outlier.

Then again, Obama seemed to know that the numbers were not holding.

[Shady]

Not only that, but the Intrade market odds are now 52.2 Obama, 46.2 McCain. Obama once held a 25 point lead.

[August1991]

Not only that, but the Intrade market odds are now 52.2 Obama, 46.2 McCain. Obama once held a 25 point lead.

These markets are too thin to be accurate. I tried registering to trade but ran into all kinds of problems so I dropped it.

There are clearly arbitrage profits possible if you compare with this market.

I happen to like the CNN Political Market because it's purely for fun.

I have a strong suspicion that some Obamatons are manipulating prices (just as the Ron Paul fanatics manipulated Internet polls when he was still in the race). Dunno.

[jdobbin]

Latest polls show tie.

http://africa.reuters.com/world/news/usnN08441757.html

The polls were taken Friday through Sunday after last week's Republican convention, which ended on Thursday. A CNN/Time poll showed the race deadlocked at 48 percent, and a Hotline/Diageo poll put the two candidates even at 44 percent.

The CNN/Time poll was largely unchanged from the previous week, when Obama led McCain by 49 percent to 48 percent. The Hotline poll showed a significant convention bounce for McCain, who trailed Obama by 9 percentage points in a poll taken the week before.

[bush_cheney2004]

Real Clear Politics tracks multiple polling sources....McCain has a slight edge:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20..._obama-225.html