kimmy Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 And they know this how? It's all conjecture. The pollsters don't know if people are hiding their true feelings. How would they know if they aren't admitting to it? How would the Telegraph have a "source" if those being polled are "hiding their feelings?" The Telegraph article didn't claim that they know voters are lying to pollsters. The Telegraph article claims that Democratic strategists are worried that people are lying to pollsters. I realize that your motto is "Listen What I Say", but perhaps you might want to sometimes try to "Read What the Article Says" or maybe even "Listen What Other People Say" some day. It's not as if they're saying "Put me down for Obama so I don't look like a racist but I really won't be voting for him." And how would they know if they said they weren't voting for Obama it would be because of racism? Why would anyone think they can't say they were voting for McCain without the pollster thinking they are doing it out of racism? They might decide not to vote for Obama for any number of reasons, but the reason people might lie to pollsters about intending to vote for Obama would most likely be that they don't want to appear racially prejudiced. The wikipedia article JBG linked to earlier provides several historical examples to suggest that this is a real phenomenon. No one has any way of knowing if people are "hiding racism" or not. It's all pure conjecture, and I really doubt if there's any substance to it. Time will tell. However, I suspect that the Democrat strategists know their business a lot better than you do. -k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 (edited) Don't you love discussing American politics with someone who has never heard of the Bradley Effect? Especially since it was so easily observed during the Democratic primary elections. It's like talking to a brick wall. The RCP average of polls in New Hampshire had Obama leading by 8.3 percent; he lost by 2.6 percent. In Nevada, the RCP average was 4 percent; she won by 5.5 percent. In Pennsylvania, the RCP average was Clinton by 6.1 percent; she won by 9.2 percent. The final RCP average in Ohio had Clinton by 7.1 percent, but she won by 10.1 percent. In Texas, the RCP average had Clinton ahead by 1.7 percent, but she won by 3.5 percent. In some other states, including Oregon and the Carolinas, Obama did overperform the final polls. LinkAlso, for the first time, Intrade has McCain's price above Obama's. The CNN Political Market (not real money) still has Obama shares well above McCain's. Link Edited September 16, 2008 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 I love how the Telegraph completely misrepresents the nature of the Bradley effect presuming that racism against blacks the reason voters lie to the pollsters. The real reason is most likely the exact opposite: i.e. white voters don't want to be perceived as racist so they feel obligated to vote for a black candidate even if they don't agree with his/her position on the issues. They may feel obligated to tell the pollster they will vote for a black, knowing full well that they may act differently at the polling station. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 Also, for the first time, Intrade has McCain's price above Obama's. The CNN Political Market (not real money) still has Obama shares well above McCain's. It's been like that for a while--well before you were still discrediting it and saying it was an Internet hoax among Obama supporters. You might not want to give it any credence now in anticipation of the October surprise and Obama's resurgence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June Link Minnesota Poll: Obama, McCain are dead even in state Link Obama's crashing in New York, and it's all tied in Minnesota now. If Obama has to fight to keep NY he's in very serious trouble; he must have a dependable base. Even if he holds NY after a fight, he loses nationally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 And they know this how? It's all conjecture. The pollsters don't know if people are hiding their true feelings. How would they know if they aren't admitting to it? Ask Bradley and Dukmajian (sp). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August1991 Posted September 16, 2008 Report Share Posted September 16, 2008 (edited) It's been like that for a while--well before you were still discrediting it and saying it was an Internet hoax among Obama supporters. You might not want to give it any credence now in anticipation of the October surprise and Obama's resurgence.I don't give it much credence because it's too easy to manipulate such markets - as the CNN site shows.From my reading, McCain's price rose above 50 cents for the first time about 4 days ago but I guess it depends how you define "a while". Incidentally, volumes increased substantially when McCain's price rose and you can draw your own conclusion from that. Edited September 16, 2008 by August1991 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gc1765 Posted September 20, 2008 Report Share Posted September 20, 2008 After a while of McCain being in the lead, Obama has regained a slight lead... link Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam Posted September 20, 2008 Report Share Posted September 20, 2008 Real Clear Politics is a pretty good source. Pollster.com does a pretty good job of averaging out the more trusted polls. I tend to watch the Gallup polls just so I'm seeing the race through a single site with consistent sampling and methodology. Otherwise, you can be whip-sawed (up 3 on CNN, up 5 on Zogby, down 2 on Rasmussen, up 1 on ABC News, etc.). Immediately after the RNC, McCain had a five point lead on gallup.com. As of today (9/20), Obama has a six point lead on gallup.com. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted September 20, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 20, 2008 After a while of McCain being in the lead, Obama has regained a slight lead... 50 to 44 is slight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted September 20, 2008 Report Share Posted September 20, 2008 50 to 44 is slight? The RCP avg is 2.3%. You can always find polls that are outside of the norm. Like last week, when one poll had McCain up by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 50 to 44 is slight? That's one outlier of a poll and given the "Bradley effect", yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest American Woman Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 (edited) QUOTE: After a while of McCain being in the lead, Obama has regained a slight lead...50 to 44 is slight? Perhaps it's a "slight lead" when it's Obama's lead, but a significant lead when it's McCain's lead. Edited September 21, 2008 by American Woman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 Economic calamity seems to favour Obama, as this mess is a direct result of irresponsible Republican deregulation that McCain has long advocated. I expect Obama's numbers to improve even further over the next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liam Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 Aside from the general polling, what matters more are the individual state races and how they award their electoral votes. fivethirtyeight.com has some pretty detailed stats if anyone is interested. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 (edited) That's one outlier of a poll and given the "Bradley effect", yes. The Bradley effect will be more than eaten up by the "cellphone" effect. Edited September 21, 2008 by BubberMiley Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 The Bradley effect will be more than eaten up by the "cellphone" effect. Oh yes, the so-called cellphone effect. I remember hearing about that 4 years ago, and John Kerry lost by 4 million votes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 Oh yes, the so-called cellphone effect. I remember hearing about that 4 years ago, and John Kerry lost by 4 million votes. Four years is a long time. And Kerry didn't mobilize 18-35 year olds like Obama does. It holds more water than racists being shy in front of pollsters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 Four years is a long time. And Kerry didn't mobilize 18-35 year olds like Obama does. It holds more water than racists being shy in front of pollsters. Except that the Bradley effect was clearly observed during the Democratic Primary. And it's not about racist voters, it's about people who don't want to appear being racist, because they've decided they don't want to vote for Barack Obama. There's a big difference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gc1765 Posted September 21, 2008 Report Share Posted September 21, 2008 50 to 44 is slight? I was looking at the poll of polls. If I remember correctly, at the time he was up by 1 in the poll of polls. Now he is up by 2 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BubberMiley Posted September 25, 2008 Report Share Posted September 25, 2008 Economic calamity seems to favour Obama, as this mess is a direct result of irresponsible Republican deregulation that McCain has long advocated. I expect Obama's numbers to improve even further over the next week. My ability to forecast events before they happen never ceases to amaze me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gc1765 Posted September 25, 2008 Report Share Posted September 25, 2008 My ability to forecast events before they happen never ceases to amaze me. Then you should have foreseen your amazement Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest American Woman Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 The latest political polls show Obama with a projected 250 electoral votes and McCain with a projected 237 electoral votes. The projected electoral votes are now Obama 325 and McCain 180. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted October 1, 2008 Author Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 The projected electoral votes are now Obama 325 and McCain 180. The economy was always going to be McCain's weak point. He is linked very closely to the deregulation and the economic management of the Bush government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bush_cheney2004 Posted October 1, 2008 Report Share Posted October 1, 2008 The economy was always going to be McCain's weak point. He is linked very closely to the deregulation and the economic management of the Bush government. By definition, there is no such thing as "the Bush government". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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