Vancouver King

At this point 21/2 weeks out, if the bottom falls out of what is left of NDP support in Quebec, as long as the newly in play seats tumble into the Liberal column and not the Tory's, then an NDP disaster will serve a greater purpose - denying Harper another term..

Nanos has BC in 3 way tie within the margin of error - where do you get the Liberals "a distant third"? Furthermore, Nanos measured an astonishing 6.6 point increase for BC Liberals week over week. Unless this was some statistical aberration, a Liberal regional BC surge could stand in the way of a Tory majority.

Barely a point ahead of the Bloq, 15 points back of a diminished NDP and 5 back of their rivals - the Liberals. Quebec is hardly fertile ground for Cons. Best you worry about sizeable losses in Ontario and BC as measured by Nanos in the same poll. Better still, say a prayer that the huge 6.6 point increase for Liberals in BC results from being an anomaly due to a small regional sample size and not a true reflection of Liberals surging on the West Coast.

Liberals and Conservatives are still roughly tied in Ontario - poll tracker has each in the 50-60 seat range. The real surprise will be how BC's 42 seats break out assuming both parties are in the 120 range leaving Alberta.

B.C. only Liberal ads are in heavy rotation here. Today I watched the same ad 5 times during the Blue Jays game. Liberals smell Tory/NDP blood on the West Coast and Nanos says it's working - Libs + 6.6 points in BC is the best news I've heard this week.

yes - in addition to the 33 points (and growing) Tories now regularly poll, it is a safe wager that ALL 33% will actually show up to vote - the same cannot be said for opposition parties. This factor alone always underestimates Conservative election day support by about 4-5 points. Your continuing denial will not alter what is coming.

It is accurate to say given current polling, if we don't vote strategically on Oct. 19th we are destined for 4 more years of Stephen Harper.

Oh for a return to the political salad days of a revelation-a-day Duffy trial and the Tories back on their heels. Consider this: Only 2 - count 'em 2 - women have been refused Canadian citizenship since 2011 for failure to remove their niqabs. An entire regions electoral direction has been impacted by the facial clothing worn by a number of recent women immigrants who could comfortably fit in a phone booth. It is to weep. The political puppet master in charge of this almost-diabolical wedge issue continues his inexorable march to victory.

Agreed, Mulcair's calculated risk of fiscal moderation - no deficits - did not pay the returns he hoped and Trudeau's gamble of running several deficits to prime the economy seems to be a winner. Whatever the reasons, five separate pollsters now confirm the NDP is in decline. Let me be the first to trade my NDP placard for a 'real change' Liberal lawn sign.

How did Conservatives sneak in about 200 trained seals to applaud every utterance by Harper? When Harper tried to lay claim to provincial Ontario success in reducing coal CO2 emissions, and the seals clapped, I fell off the couch. Since when are these debate audiences a free for all?

Right now? $50-$60 oil is here to stay. What is Harper's plan to adjust to this probability?

Are you seriously suggesting Harper & company only yesterday realized many embassies are terror traps? Not even Harper could be that ignorant. The Americans have realized their diplomatic vulnerability for a year or more and invested billions in upgraded security including moving embassies to rural areas, away from undefendable urban locations. Harper has dragged his heels on spending for such security upgrades, effectively trading the lives of our diplomats for the political expediency of balancing his budget.

I might be reading this wrong, however, strategic voting will be an important factor in the final 3 weeks as droves of New Democrats jump ship to the Liberals in a final effort to stop Harper.

I will happily vote for big trouble.

Long after Stephen Harper fades into political obscurity that he so richly deserves, David Suzuki will be remembered for his relentless defense of our planet's environment.

Yesterday's leak of a secret report stating 20% of Canadian embassies - many in the Middle East - are at high risk for successful terrorist attack demonstrates that Harper will knowingly sacrifice the lives of our diplomats to political expediency by starving the budgets of our foreign missions in the name of taming the deficit.

Strategic voting must be kept simple if it's to be effective. It was suggested earlier as soon as either the NDP or Liberals make an unmistakable move in the polls, all non-Harper supporters should move to the party with measurable momentum. With 3 weeks to go that momentum appears to be with the Liberals.

So, you are tired of the never changing 30% for all poll dance. Major change is afoot - today's Nanos numbers show the NDP in trouble: Liberals - 32.5 CPC - 31.5 NDP - 27.6 Time for strategic voters to move to Liberals?

Left, far left.... what does it matter? Trudeau and his Liberals have arguably out flanked the NDP on the left by advocating deficit financing. Can the NDP, therefore, be described as centrist? Why don't we give the Greens the award for being the only federal party to truly give a damn about the health of the planet - and forget the nonsense of positioning them on the political spectrum.

Refer to my post #4095 & 4068. A recent Nanos sounding had Conservatives ahead of the NDP by 5 points in BC, a result easily dismissed considering the low regional sample size. Ekos, however, commented today: "The poll results now show the Conservatives with clear leads in British Columbia ..." Today's controversial poll tends to confirm recent significant movement here in BC. Despite the gloomy news for BC's federal NDP, Vancouver Island will likely be the last area - along with eastside Vancouver seats - to tumble out of the NDP column into the Conservatives. The Island's 7 seats are strictly a 2-way race between NDP & Greens.

The NDP is now clearly behind the Conservatives in BC. The added Tory seats here (10?) will likely out number Conservative gains around Quebec City.

This Ekos result was predictable. Even Nanos with it's "delayed" methodology was hinting at increased Conservative strength (currently 3 points up on the NDP). The second half of this campaign has been marked by the absence of negative news and issues for Tories relative to the earlier Duffy days.. Did anyone think the negative barrage would continue into the final weeks? The winner in terms of most seats has been decided, all that remains is whether those seats constitute a majority.

A month out I pray the KPMG tax avoidance scam has legs - this would be a good fit for an NDP attack.

Conservatives have pulled even with the NDP in BC according to Nanos, Forum concludes Conservative national support translates into 145 seats. I hope I'm wrong, however, there are less than subtle indications of movement back to Harper's gov't.

Nanos newest after debate; CPC - 30.8 Liberal - 30.3 NDP - 29.1 l Obviously, the debate did not propel any leader from the pack.