Vancouver King

Today's new Nanos sounding has an interesting regional battle in BC. All three major parties are in a 3-way lock with almost identical numbers to the national standings' The Greens are polling 10.7 in BC - probably most of it at the expense of the NDP.

I am under no illusions when it comes to promoting Green policies - to the extent they get out the message, my party, the NDP, suffers accordingly - particularly on Vancouver Island. That said I consider it a travesty that May was absent from the debate and Green's platform on climate change and green-related proposals were not touched upon. Keep up your good work, the Green message deserves to be heard.

Unfortunately of late, they continue to speak of a 3-way tie, not exactly conducive to strategic voting. Perhaps we should try examining the entrails of birds .....

Harper actually contended his rivals would open Canada's borders to "hundreds of thousands of unchecked refugees". How gullible does he think voters are? Garbage hyperbole like this might lose him more votes than it gets.

Maybe Harper refers to folks like the potty mouthed Tory supporter who referred to the press as "piles of sh*t". Old, white and Conservative, Harper's perfect definition of old stock Canadians.

"I know things are not exactly great in the economy", said Harper. Only in Canada would such an admission not be considered a fatal political mistake.

Trudeau is awful - stealing time from his opponents, talking over others, far too earnest, like a talented high schooler. Mulcair wins, Harper has neutral.performance. I can't see Liberals gaining off this effort.

And so it begins. Forum has NDP down 6 points, Liberals down 1 and Conservatives up 4. Nothing outlier about this one - these are reasonable numbers based on most recent campaign events. How does 76% approval for Harper's approach to Syrian refugees translate into party support? See above. How does a very positive Finance Dept. report impact support levels for parties? See above. Tonight is crucial. Unless Mulcair and Trudeau can serve up a miracle in the economic debate, and with a month of political despair behind him, Harper is poised to take firm charge of this campaign. Not a pleasant outlook for liberals but one that was predictable. Also remember the messenger does not deserve to be hung, - what the hell, don't forget you read it here first.

Yesterday you said a 155 - 165 seat Tory minority was doomed. What changed in 24 hours?

There will be a settling of political scores in any non-Tory outcome - this one looks promising.

Perhaps more important than Nanos' usual 3-way tie is it's measure of the undecided at only 9.7%. "Based on the tracking completed last night, the proportion of undecided voter stands at 9.7% which is lower than usual for the distance to election day. One month ago, near the beginning of the campaign, the undecided stood at 16.7%."

Harper would sooner remove his own spleen with a pickle fork than head a formal coalition. Pray he ends up with under 150 seats - that way he is doomed and the country can finally close the file on this prime minister.

What is your definition of "meaningful"

Ask yourself this: If somebody told you one of 3 major parties contesting the current election had the following happen on their watch: Two separate recessions, $150 billion of accumulated budget deficits, prominent senate appointee before courts and national tv for weeks, the party found in contempt of parliament, it's parliamentary ethics spokesman shackled and cuffed and led off to jail, it's PMO found covering up a scheme to deceive the public, etc. etc. Now, if I told you the same party is neck and neck for first place you would undoubtedly find it hard to believe. So, I assume, do it's opponents.

Here's a fresh perspective on NDP woes in Ontario. British Columbia is set to return more NDP MPs to Ottawa than Ontario. If this likelihood is taken as evidence of NDP popularity on the West Coast that would be wrong. They have a less-than-truly-comfortable 35% support level out here.

True enough, I should have added, "relative to NDP federal results". It still begs the question if the Ontario electorate's reluctance to embrace the NDP in 2015 is not related directly to Bob Rae's years, what explains the current reluctance - especially when it's Quebec neighbor now stands as an NDP monolith?

How else to explain the likelihood of the NDP electing only 20 seats, give or take, in the province. Today's Abacus poll gives the party only 25% support in the province - similar to other recent soundings. Ontario federally has always been Tory country. Unfortunately, I see this tradition happening again.

The Bloc has nothing to offer. Tories could offer many enticements - cabinet post, committee chair, crown corp CEO, etc. etc.

If I have missed on the prediction it's likely due to underestimating what is coming - a possible slim Tory majority. It doesn't stretch the imagination to predict 3-4 NDP Quebec MPs would cross the floor to become gov't side members. With a near majority on Oct. 19th Harper won't need a "massive scale mutiny".

Don't bet the farm on it. Harper's ego knows no boundaries - why is he running this time around if not an attempt to set a record for longest PM stewardship?

I see Harper with 155 - 165 seats. He can entice (bribe?) sufficient opposition MPs to join Tories formally, or on an issue by issue basis to hold out for about 2 years. It will be David Emerson on an industrial scale. It won't be pretty.

My guess would be 2 years.

There is nothing new or remarkable in this poll. Since early August we have known about 75% of respondents prefer a change of gov't, so as a stat it more represents Abacus catching up to it's competitors. Underlying these early last half numbers are clear problems for Harper's opponents. Today's budget report spells bad news for Liberals as it questions the need for the massive deficits strategy proposed by Trudeau. Past economic issues from former NDP provincial administrations continue to hold back Mulcair in the all important Ontario/BC battlegrounds. Ekos and Nanos both point to upticks for Harper on the refugee issue. As difficult as it is to accept, a sizeable minority - beyond the Tory core - appears opposed to substantial increases in refugee numbers. Now that the economy is again a strong suit for Tories, watch Harper for a strong debate performance this week. Add in a still-vast attack ad war chest, rabid core supporters and the entry of the Wizard of Oz and I am going to update my prediction - it looks, at a minimum, like a healthy Conservative minority.

Nightly Nanos tracking (Sept. 13th): CPC - 31.7 NDP - 30.8 Libs - 30.5 Prediction: there will be no consensus..

A 3-way lock is actually good news for anti-Harper forces. It means Conservatives will very likely be denied a majority - and anything short of a majority means Harper can be held in check or defeated in the Commons.