Vancouver King

Let me be the first to offer an apology to Nick Nanos, how could I have doubted his Liberal lead?

That is is an accurate reflection of what happened. In fact, the first post-niqab polls showed huge gains for the Bloc and significant gains for the CPC but far less improvement for Liberals. Hindsight suggests this initial miniscule Liberal gain probably reflected the unpopularity of Trudeau's agreement with the NDP on the niqab issue. Only a week later, after the bottom truly fell out of the NDP's support did Liberals begin to receive it's share of disaffected New Democrats. The Quebec polling tells a story of a campaign gone awry due to the NDP leader's failure to appreciate the niqab's impact on his province's primary constituency. As such it will be an important part of this election's post mortem.

At the niqab pronouncement by Mulcair, the NDP was at an astonishing 51% in Quebec, within 5 points of it's rivals in Ontario and 40+% in BC. It was a successful campaign until the niqab reared it's dark silhouette.

You are too cynical - a gov't acting for everyone, not just the well-off, has the potential to avoid traditional pitfalls including corruption.

No, it was the wrong thing to do. His stance has prevented the first truly progressive gov't in Canada. More years of Tory or Liberal policies designed to enrich the well-off while working class Canadians fall further behind. We are witnessing the usual Liberal dance of campaigning from the left only to rule from the right. Tory or Liberal? what damn difference does it make other than to remove one gang of corrupt pigs for another ready to assume it's historical spot at the trough?

Do you accept the NDP's chances to form gov't are now completely blown due in large part to Mulcair's niqab stance? Surely, if there ever was a trade off for the greater good this was it. From front runner to ignoble defeat - at least Mulcair will have his principles intact.

Trudeau 's Quebec strength is English enclaves in Montreal. Mulcair's strength was among French Canadians that as a group were far more opposed to the wearing of the niqab than, for instance, English Quebecers. The NDP was uniquely vulnerable in Quebec on this issue and the NDP brain-trust missed it - or gambled it's overwhelming lead in the province could absorb a 'principled hit'.

You think his stance on the niqab was politically right? I don't, and all national polls show conclusively the NDP decline began the day after his morally correct but politically naïve pronouncement on the niqab. I'm amazed this obvious fact has escaped you.

Thank Mulcair"s principled but naïve stance on the niqab issue. That he failed to anticipate how his stance would play out in his own home province calls into question his judgement on other sensitive files.

In most cases, downtown condos owned by off shore interests are rented out - not, as you say, collecting dust. Why would an owner not desire a revenue property that can be rented in minutes? In fact, since Harper gutted a national affordable housing strategy, renting investment condos is the only answer to local demand for affordable housing.

Gov'ts need affordable housing action to house those unable to afford home purchases or rents here. The world is scrambling to live/invest here, rather than Seattle, for many reasons - not the least is no over-arching, pervasive gun culture to contend with as in the USA, far superior medical and education systems in BC and a natural mountain/water setting many cuts above the Seattle experience.

Home ownership in Vancouver is frequently a live-in retirement investment, often the only retirement vehicle for seniors. A crackdown in the expensive end of the market might discourage free-loading Asian buyers, however, it will unduly impact the value of local retirement assets.

Seems to be a consensus building here that Nanos stands alone with his Liberal lead. This implies Conservatives at 35% is likely closer and, therefore, adding in a given 3-5% for more efficiently getting out it's vote, etc. and we have another 4 years of Stephen Harper.

Time to adjust the teaching priorities of Political Science 101 as the reality of minority politics becomes the norm. "Quite likely, without being aware of the fact, Canadians might be seeing their last majority government. Not for the next four years, but forever." .... Jeffrey Simpson, The Globe and Mail

This is a revision from a week ago. CPC - 155 Liberal - 123 NDP - 59 Green - 1 This supposes NDP support in Quebec has stabilized.

The glut of oil will only get worse as Iranian production will soon be back on stream with the lifting of sanctions. The Saudi gov't stated months ago it's decision to cut the price drastically was to protect the Kingdom's market share and to increase the cost differential between oil and alternative sun and wind energy sources. With a $15 per barrel cost of production the Saudis are well equipped to fight such a battle. Canada's oil patch will have to adjust to $50 oil,

You mean you hope Harper stalls the inevitable?

Who could guess my newly erected Liberal lawn sign - upgraded from an NDP window placard - would move the region's voting so quickly and so decisively.

The latest EKOS results contain info 3 days old, Nanos has numbers collected up until Oct. 1st. Here is what the freshest sounding says about the BC regional race: Liberal - 34.1 NDP - 30.5 Cons - 26.9 CPC will likely win this election but it will have more to do with the Quebec shake-up than with the BC region.

Difficult to find that exact question among pollsters, however, 68% is unquestionably light given the tightness of the campaign plus the strength of belief of Conservative supporters. Contrast that to 'fair weather" Liberal supporters and the inescapable conclusion is a definite benefit to the CPC in terms of motivated adherents and getting out the vote.

The rate of disintegration by NDP's Quebec base extrapolated over final 2 weeks. Plus there are the usual Tory enhancements - vote efficiency, supporters "rabid devotion' equates into ALL supporters actually showing up to vote, the legendary 3-5% Tory election day bump above poll consensus, CPC legislation designed to discourage youth and or poor voters, etc. etc.

Yes, 170-175 MPs.

This election is over. A soon to be released Leger poll confirms the continuing disintegration of the NDP's Quebec core, and it's not Trudeau's Liberals benefiting from this crumbling NDP base - it is the Bloc and Conservatives. The Bloc's prospects are now 17 seats and Conservatives can expect 11-12 elected MPs. Mulcair's stand on niqabs at citizenship swearing in ceremonies is almost entirely responsible for this situation, according to Leger. His principled but somewhat foolish stand has not only cost his party a legitimate shot at power, his controversial stance has handed Harper the extra seats required to form another govt. Couldn't Mulcair foresee how his policy would play out among French Canadians? All the strategic voting that can realistically be mustered will not offset the 'bonus' MPs handed to Harper over the niqab issue. This election is over.

103 + 80 + 118 + 4 + 9 = 314 What happened to the other 24 seats?

Your source has a disclaimer; "These riding projections are not polls and are not necessarily an accurate reflection of current voter intention in each of these ridings." So where did your numbers come from - examining the entrails of birds?