Vancouver King

Won't that drive you homophobe (anti-gay) CPC types crazy when " Sven Rides Again".... <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Few things in politics are certain. This is the exception: Robinson is going down in Vancouver Centre. You can take that prediction to the bank. Get over it. It has nothing - repeat nothing - to do with homophobia. It has everything to do with opportunism, lack of ethics and a parachuting candidate.

[ (see 2006 Election Results)

"Harper's stance on SSM is far from strict." Sorry , I disagree. His first headline of the campaign came from a new conference where he reiterated his conservative and controversial stand to revisit the SSM non-issue. The fact that he did this in full knowledge of the media flak it would generate tells you how important it is to him. "Closer ties to the US would help resolve disputes like softwood lumber ..." Today, America rewarded our NAFTA victories with an approx. reduction in duties of 50%. Total levies are adjusted to about 11% on softwood (now only about 50 million per month). Let's cozy up to the US when George Dubya is retired in Texas.

Downside? With a new leader in place and social/religious conservative Harper desperately relying on the radical BQ to prop him up as PM in return for Mulroney-style handouts to Quebec, the Liberals will forget Martin as quickly as they forgot Chretien, and will go on to form a majority. Upside is that Canadians finally get a majority government again and CPC will have to wait a little longer to get a palatable leader or better still, transform into the PCs. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Resolved, a minority govt under Harper will be a disaster for the CPC and the county. What if the current polls are right and Martin is returned with another NDP propped govt and, in short order, Tories anoint Peter McKay as leader? I wonder if your dynamic of fresh new CPC leader vs. tired, can't-seem-to-win Martin, hold true? McKay could be expected to disavow Harper's strict stance on SSM, close ties to USA etc. This might be Tories earliest winning scenario.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}> CPC will also have time because of a new Liberal leadership race, plus the Bloc will side with any provincial rights motions. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> True. Harper could live with 10 official nations within a loose framework called Canada. Besides provincial rights there are other areas of potential eye to eye contact: personal/corporate tax cuts, areas of health care agreement (remember Quebec leads the nation in private health care delivery). The downside of all this potential cooperation with the Bloc is that it gives the new Liberal leader a very big stick to bloody the Tories.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> To most everyone; Layton and Van Centre voters included, Svend looks like an opportunist parachuting in from Burnaby to take "easy advantage" of a riding that has a 30% concentration of gays. This riding is far too sophisticated to be taken in by a non-convicted thief - voters here will hold their noses and return Hedy Fry.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}> Someone has to shake up the Fisheries bureaucracy. In BC enforcement against over-fishing is non-existent, particularly against first nations on the Fraser. I am a defender of First Nations rights to feed their people from the resource but anecdotal evidence says that if you sit down in a bar in Chilliwack you will soon be offered sockeye at a ridiculous low price. This is so widespread that only DFO authorities are unaware it's going on. Meanwhile, salmon are getting so scarce that the commercial fishery is almost history and the recreational catch is just that: history. What a mess.

Longevity? There is little hope he can garner cooperation from NDP or Bloc unless he succums to expediency, ie. In exchange for allowing the Bloc to appear on the podium at every international meeting (G7, Kyoto etc.) his vulnerable position will only allow his caucus time to draft a tentative budget loaded with giveaways and generic treats and use it as an election tool to head immediately back to voters in another election. Who knows though, with a taste of foreign affairs responsibility - an eventual trapping of sovereignty - Duceppe might be so drunk with new influence he could sustain Harper for years.

The single biggest unanswered political question in the country is this: What happened to the man of steel, that determined deficit slayer, year after year cutting pork and useless spending, a stalwart fiscal conservative who commanded national respect, even from his enemies including his own boss? How did this towering presence become Mr. Dithers?

Didn't Rex Murphy say that Martin was the only saint in the brothel?

Quote; Eureka: [ "Ontarians do and have supported "ousiders." Diefenbaker comes readily to mind. They do not sipport politicians with a regional bias .": those who refer to Canada as a "Community of communitiesor as "not a real country," for example. Ontarians have usually considered themselves Canadians first. Only parts of the Maritimes can say that of themselves as well." .......................................... Interesting example although it is half a century old. Wasn't Diefenbaker's success less a Conservative victory than a revulsion to Liberal arrogance - ie. to cost over runs on govt supported pipe line project, then Finance Minister responded in the Commons, "what's a million?" Ironic that 45 years later the Libs are accused of similar disrespect of the public purse.

If we start with the simple proposition that Ontario & Quebec will not support outsiders (defined as politicians outside their regions) you have an explanation for why Harper will again run headlong into an invisible brick wall at the Manitoba/Ontario border. This simple, unspoken truth also has the benefit of explaining the failure of Joe Clark, Kim Campbell and Preston Manning. Not a member of the Golden Triangle establishment? Don't bother campaigning here, you outsider. It's discrimination disguised as regionalism. Is it any wonder BC & Alberta have notable separation movements?

Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre. You might remember her references to KKK burning crosses on front yards in Prince George. Give me a break. There's only one minor problem - if she goes down it will likely be to Svend Robinson, who has never seen a diamond ring he didn't like.