Vancouver King

They have gained about 5 points - measured repeatedly - a figure Conservatives would die for. The reason I write Harper off is simply Conservatives have no upside potential - NDP and Liberal candidates have vast pools off potential voters relative to Tories. Lately, polls hint the Conservative "rock solid" core base might, inordinately, not bother going to the polls.

Most Conservative supporters here do not appreciate how unlikely their chances are becoming. For a snap shot of their predicament simply go page #1 and post #1 (Punked). This post, at the beginning of the 2011 campaign, showed Conservative support at 43%, a third higher than current soundings. All this loss, and more, has poured into the NDP column. Will Tories accept their fate without trying extreme options?

Desperate men do desperate things.

Yes, this would play to Conservative's only remaining strong suit - national security. Who doubts manufacturing such an incident is beneath this gov't?

Before I endorse Doug Ford, or his brother Rob, I want to know what was discussed between Stephen Harper and Rob Ford during those fishing trips on Harrington Lake.

Mulcair will morph into Mugabe? This kind of lunatic fringe mentality is creeping into the CPC's campaign - witness the incoherent swear fest from a Harper supporter directed to the media at a recent CPC event. There is a bunker mentality taking over the Conservative campaign reflecting the desperation they face.

Your party depends on limited public awareness of issues when it indulges in character assassination attack ads. The same public - with little care for details - holds the Conservatives generally accountable for economic issues on their watch. Politics can be unfair, this time - for a change - circumstances have the Tories suffering the public's indifference to detail. Live by the sword, die by the sword...

This scenario or a variation is beginning to look like the odds-on outcome. There isn't the slightest indication 8 weeks out that Conservatives are closing this race, indeed most recent polling data suggests Quebec and Atlantic Canada can be written off by the CPC. With the baggage Tories must drag along - two recessions on their watch, uninterrupted budgetary deficits, Duffy/PMO scandal among many others - it seems highly unlikely this campaign can be salvaged.

I believe he would make it work informally - for a time and for a legislative price. Both parties accomplish voters over riding priority, turning Harper from power while also affording the NDP an "apprenticeship" at the helm.

Conservatives are going to have to improve their 2011 Ontario results as the increasing NDP strength in Quebec and Atlantic Canada spell losses for the CPC. For the first time in decades BC, with 42 seats, will be where the party with the biggest seat count will be crowned. The province can hardly be described as Conservative friendly.

This means the nation could be in store for a post-election Donald Trump type leadership race - I can't wait.

Salve your pain with this breaking news: Rob Ford of Toronto mayoralty infamy, has announced his brother Doug Ford will seek Harper's job if the Conservatives are tossed Oct. 19th. Bring on the circus.

Poll Tracker seat projections has them at twice your estimate. Even with inefficient voter spread, it is hard to believe 39% regional support will only yield 5 of 32 seats.

New Forum poll today showing race is stabilizing: NDP - 34 CPC - 29 Libs - 28 Bloc - 4 Grn - 4 One regional surprise - Atlantic Canada is now in the NDP column.

The Abacus poll on Poll Tracker has in Quebec: NDP - 47 Libs - 20 The CROP poll released today has in Quebec: NDP - 47 Libs - 20 There are differences between the two polls on the minor party numbers.

Its confirmed. CROP released a Quebec-only poll today reflecting the exact numbers Abacus released previously (for NDP/Libs): NDP - 47 Libs - 20 BQ - 16 CPC - 13 Quebecers like to back a winner and the NDP at 47% is 5 points ahead of their 2011 finish.

Another Abacus finding that needs confirming - the regional breakdown for Quebec shows the NDP at 47%. Virtually 1 in 2 Quebec voters will cast a vote for Mulcair. Second place goes to Liberals at 20%. I will believe this dominance when it is confirmed.

I'm guessing you believe the far right Liberal provincial gov't we have in BC is somehow related to Trudeau's Liberals.

The damage will be done by then. Can $30 million worth of attack ads turn this around? I doubt it.

This Duffy business is having a subtle but important influence on the campaign by debasing the Conservative brand. Few in the general public have the time to explore the complexities of this situation, what they come away with is a sense of self-inflicted scandal and leadership found lacking by allowing such a situation to develop.

Clark taught Political Science at U of A, Edmonton, in 1963. I remember him as a decent, progressive young man who could easily have found a comfortable home with the Liberals.

Take heart, the same poll says many Conservatives are not "certain or likely to vote on Oct 19th." This campaign is, apparently, so depressing so early, Tories will be staying home in droves.

Here is a potential problem for Conservatives (from the newest Abacus poll). In answer to the question, "are you certain or fairly likely to vote?", more New Democrats answered in the affirmative than Conservatives. This implies trouble in getting the core to the voting booth for Conservatives. Has this campaign become so gloomy so early for Tories they will stay home in droves?

Let me update that number. Today's Abacus poll says it's 76%, which could mean some Harper voters have joined the chorus for change.

One day after Conservatives sang "happy days are here again", along comes Abacus to rain on their parade. NDP - 35 CPC - 29 Lib - 26 Grn - 6 Blc - 3 76% want a change in gov't and the regional Ontario numbers are: NDP - 32 CPC - 30 Libs - 30 Nanos appears to have had it wrong in battleground Ontario.