Vancouver King

Overnights from Nanos: Liberal - 32 CPC - 31 NDP - 30 Will any party break from the stalemate?

My, oh my. One decent day of poll results and every racist ignoramus in the party base is emboldened to crawl from under their rocks.

Today's results suggest the polling/media assumption that the refugee issue is a loser for Harper is in error. We should have realized it - despite the recent platitudes on Canadians generosity, we can be selfish towards outsiders. Harper gaining support on the refugee issue? - unfortunately it has the ring of truth.

As with refugee crisis, Harperites will feign concern then quietly work to bury action or investigations into this mammoth rip-off by the wealthiest.

Liberals have had 3rd party status for last 4 years. 5 1/2 weeks out with Conservative bubble campaign in disarray.

Yes, even with 105 seats they will still officially be referred to as the third party.

Quebec nationalism is in dormancy. The NDP represents a federalist option on the left with a real chance of forming gov't - with Quebec MPs playing a very prominent role in cabinet.

Quality guesses, you even left 9% for Greens & Bloq. It will be interesting to see if Liberals can continue current uptick, obviously you have your doubts.

Good grief, have you considered professional counseling?

I'm taking side bets the final Conservative vote total will be between 22 to 26% of votes cast.

The rumblings you hear are most likely dissent within the Conservative campaign. The campaign's manager is now under open fire; heavily vetted "trained seals" now boo media questions at every stop, its leader now grovels for votes with "I'm not perfect" statements, and the entire dysfunctional Tory bubble campaign will soon be polling south of 25%. Time to accept the inevitable, Pik.

I wouldn't wager against any of the above although the Liberals up 3 in a week seems a tad optimistic. Most observers are now fixated at an all-important decreasing Tory number. For legions of voters, myself included, the only priority is Harper's defeat. Once that becomes a certainty we can worry about which left of center option will form gov't. If the campaign polls resemble your predicted trends on Oct. 19th, I will happily stroke my ballot for the Liberals.

I've never read a more devastating poll on the subject of an election's undecided. An important remaining hope of Tories is effectively crushed.

You will recall it was Nanos recently measuring relatively high support for Conservatives. Whatever he saw, it is now gone and like virtually all other respected pollsters, now sees the CPC trending lower. We are now about 2-3 weeks away from the first big call of the campaign - certain defeat for Harpers Conservatives.

I agree it's a little early to put the champagne on ice, but hell, the NDP transition team has now met twice and CPC candidates are peeing into coffee mugs. What could possibly go wrong?

This poll repeals a historical truth - that the undecided always breaks down exactly as the decided do. Of the 24% declaring as undecided - only a 5% slice of that group feels it is best to keep Conservatives in office. This is as close to unanimous as the polling world gets.

Could you move this rant to where it belongs - the Alberta section of the Provincial forum.

Through the jungle of numbers one crucial trend is apparent: Conservatives are in trouble. Initial feedback from the refugee issue (ie. Nick Nanos on CTV's Question Period today) is not pleasant news for Tories. Harper's adopted stance as the war leader is not playing well among voters who want increased, timely efforts in accepting additional refugees. If Pamela Wallin is charged during this campaign - a real possibility - Conservatives are guaranteed official third party status. Tories cannot absorb another hit of that magnitude. The numbers will vary by region from day to day, but one thing is becoming relentlessly obvious: the current gov't is going down.

Harper will gravitate to his true calling - pulling wings off flies.

Despite character assassination attack ads in heavy rotation, Poll Tracker has Trudeau's Liberals poised to elect 58 seats in Ontario. I wonder what proportion of this surge is related to voter rejection of sleazy Tory campaign tactics.

There are plenty of surprises in these newest polls but none more important (or shocking) than this set of numbers for the Ontario regional battleground (Forum): Liberal - 42 NDP - 32 CPC - 21 Given the absolute necessity of Ontario forming the nucleus of any positive Conservative result, if these numbers reflect anywhere near current reality then this campaign is all but over for Stephen Harper. Confirmation of anything approaching this split will move many New Democrats, myself included, into the Liberal camp.

We shall see how Harper's response to the humanitarian refugee crisis - emphasizing military involvement - plays with voters.

Today's EKOS poll confirms recent soundings - all 3 major parties are in a dead heat. NDP - 30.2 CPC - 29.5 Libs - 27.7

Canadians entered the job market in droves in August - 50,000 more looking vs. only12,500 jobs created. This futile search for non-existent jobs jumped the unemployment rate to 7.0% (contrast that to 5.1% this month in America). The recession continues unabated.

Ok, ok, sign me up - with one proviso: only 10% of net revenue for pot head addiction treatment (there are few of these around), with the considerable balance poured into the treasury.