shoop

A little clearer. Still not all that clear. At least we agree on one thing. i.e. student government isn't *real politics*. What is your real political experience?

The ad in question was the Jack Layton ad released in BC only. *Are you referring to that ad as Martin-type fear-mongering?*

There is a reason why these ads were released just in BC. Persuadables in BC are definitely not voting Liberal. As strange as it sounds their choice is between the CPC and the NDP. It is these people the ads are targeted at.

Wow, you keep proving the point as to why the Liberals have lost this election. *arrogance* Are you referring to the participants on this board in the 90-100 category? Are you actually saying that only the Liberals appeal to those with IQs above 100? I ain't too shure but I am thinkin my IQ ia probly over 100. mebbe 102 or 103?

Were you a debater in university? Seriously. You remind me of those pathetic debate kids who made prouncements without support or fully explaining their argument. For those of us less enlightened than you do explain your *dominoes waiting to fall* line...

Agreed, but part of the problem with the Chretien ads was that it appeared to mock his Bell's palsy. There is a huge difference between making fun of someboy's personal choice in facial hair and making fun of a medical condition. I didn't vote PC in that election. Those ads were a big part of my decision making process. The only people who would be *offended* by ads of this nature are very unlikely to vote CPC in the first place. Back on point, the *backlash* you predicted from these ads will not come about.

Well said scriblett. The one question I do have is - What has happened to the Sun newspaper chain? Between this and trying to scare people with misleading headlines in the Toronto Sun i.e. "Harper muses about majority." when that was far too early. Do they just instinctively want to attack the party in power?

Politics is all about staying on point. My point was that you were dreaming in talking about a backlash against the CPC. Point is that none of these four issues are hot-button enough to create the backlash on the ads you talked about. A couple reasons? Many Canadians *don't* favour legalizing marijuana. Some Canadians actually support tax cuts for corporations. = no backlash Do any Canadians really want armed soldiers in the steets? See the contrast.

I'm thinking you are wrong on that one. Look at your second post in this thread. You had to *try* and give a nuanced, and a little rambling, response in order to prove why you *think* the CPC ads are wrong. It takes 16 words to explain what was wrong with the Pinochet ad. "Stephen Harper will not put armed soldiers in the streets of Canada, like Pierre Trudeau did." That is why there hasn't been a backlash on these ads.

k, Agreed that 135 is closer to the more likely outcome than 166, but I feel he is being to favourable to the Liberals in two key provinces. i.e. BC and Ontario. I feel he is giving the Liberals three to many seats in BC [two of those going CPC and the other going NDP] and 11 too many in Ontario [7 CPC and 4 NDP]. With those changes I would guess the CPC is in very solid minority territory yet still shy of a majority. CPC 146 seats Lib 71 BQ 59 NDP 37 Now the big question is can the CPC move another 10 seats to their side in the remaining days. It will be fascinating to many of the local races in other provinces (being from Alberta and all )

Did you start this thread to discuss uncosted policy proposals or attack the CPC at regardless of facts presented to you?

Spar, I think your *inverse hype model* misses the point on this election. This election is all about change. We are going to see a change in government on January 23rd. How big a change is the only story left to be told. I would be shocked if the CPC only hits 135 seats (the lower end of your margin of error). A combined 114 NDP/Liberal seats is also unlikely. I would be shocked if they top 105 between them.

The Conservative plan makes it more affordable for parents to stay home with their children. Not all parents see it as a *sacrifice* to stay home with their children. Many would actually prefer to do so if they could.

Really? So in 2006 you are bemoaning a change made to U.S. politcs over a 100 years ago? Why is this on a discussion of a Canadian Polics forum? Wrong forum perhaps?

eureka, Who are you working to dispose? There are only a handful of currently-held CPC seats that are in danger of being lost. After writing off BC Southern Interior there are less than 10 that *might* be lost - although the CPC will probably win most of those ten. We are looking at a big, big CPC win a week from Monday.

Is any cabinet position a *key* position? Norman Mineta, former Democratic Congressman, has been Buh`s Sec. of Transportation for more than five years now?

It is tax breaks for corporations to set up daycare spaces *for their employees/children of their employees*. That is a very big part of the policy you have missed. The proposal isn't for big box, for-profit daycare.

Wow, You must be correct mar. *Winning* the MLW ad contest as judged by you. Too bad the Conservatives are winning the only race that really counts. i.e. the 2006 federal election! I will take that anytime.

Stan, Who are your independents? Bev Desjarlais in Manitoba? I have no idea who it could be in Quebec....

Yeah, the ad was terrible. I have a feeling the "Pinochet ad" nickname is going to stick. I think the Liberals just got arrogant and thought they could go as far as possible to *make sure* they won the election. Another example of the poor political instincts of the Martinites.

The U.S. has gone closer to meeting its Kyoto targets, than we have gone in meeting ours. What is more important? The signature on a document or what the real action a government takes?

The Liberals may not have been in freefall before, but they definitely are now!

Wow Boru, quite the partisan start here at MLW. The fact that Gomery is still dogging the Liberals ALSO goes to show that the Canadian public doesn't buy into the exhonerated by 'due process' mumbo jumbo either. Here is a little legal lesson for you. Charges would not show up in a criminal background check. Only convictions. Innocent until proven guilty and all that. Pesky that Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

You don't understand how he can lose to Harper? Just look at the unfocused, uninspired and lazy campaigns the Martinites have run so far.

The Hill and Knowlton prediction site is the best one out there. Not sophisticated enough to examine nuances in polls but they apply national numbers to riding projections pretty well. There is even a tool for you to get projection numbers based on inputing national support levels of your choosing. H & K Prediction site On the basis of today's Stretegic Counsel polls the numbers appear as follows: CPC 165 BQ 65 LPC 51 NDP 27 The Strategic Counsel`s own projection based on those numbers is as follows: CPC 152 BQ 60 LPC 74 NDP 22 That is probably a better indicator of where things stand. Appears that the H&K predictor has issues accounting for regional differences within a province. (Both models still had Cadman winning in Surrey-North - kinda tough given he is dead and all so I put his seat into the NDP numbers.)