SpankyMcFarland

That prediction covers most possible outcomes other than a small loss for Carney. FPTP greatly exacerbates small swings in the popular vote anyway. Again Poilievre is not fully committing to an attack on Trump. He’s not a newbie. We know the level of snark he is capable of.

Here’s a Globe piece making the same obvious point: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-pierre-poilievres-strength-is-as-an-attack-dog-but-hes-growling/

Harris, Turner and Campbell didn’t have a foreign enemy threatening to take over our country. Carney also benefits from the peculiar narrative of ‘not being a politician’ which has become rooted in North American culture. A problem with Poilievre - even now he hasn’t properly pivoted to a fully pro-Canada, anti-Trump campaign. Competing more subtly with the Liberals as the better alternative to fight Trump seems to be very hard for him. He’s still obsessed with Trudeau, Carney and Liberals as the main problem for our country which is not how most people see it any more. Yes, Carney will see some big fluctuations. Not being a politician has a big downside in a campaign where everything said and unsaid, every gesture is remorselessly examined. He needs to be less snarky about his blind trust (although I have to laugh at some MAGA fans suddenly being concerned by such relatively minor matters compared to their hero’s ongoing mega-larceny) and Lord knows what he’ll say in French in the coming months. One thing I think can say. Trudeau’s departure and Trump’s arrival have ensured the Liberals will not be wiped out in this election. Every Liberal MP must have an energy boost thinking of that.

I would prefer an elected ceremonial president. There’s lots of things for them to do around the country. The head of state should represent everybody.

Canadians who have admired Trump are more likely to support PP or PPC, I would say. You can still see that affinity in what they write online.

To make Canada more like Germany, Ireland or Israel we should elect the GG, perhaps with a series of secret votes by parliament, enabling MPs and senators to vote against any lunatics in their own parties without suffering punishment. The Canadian public has little enthusiasm for the elections we already have so let the politicians do this one. We don’t need a charismatic vote-getter anyway who is too ambitious for the role, more a safe pair of hands like David Johnston. The votes could be non-binding and be taken as ‘advice’ by the PM, thus minimizing the constitutional changes necessary. This way the GG would be completely independent of the PM. In the meantime, I think the GG should be speaking out about our current crisis, given that our head of state is being muzzled by Starmer. Nothing too confrontational but more a series of speeches in favour of Canada, eg highlighting the fun in holidaying at home.

Watching Grenier on P and P - 8-9% vote lead required by the Cons for a majority versus 1-2% for the Liberals because of greater vote efficiency.

On the non-Trump issues the Tories do have a strong hand and Poilievre is a capable spokesperson. It’s also likely Carney will have some major flubs, especially en français.

PP is hemorrhaging support at the moment. This should have been a landslide victory for him. One fundamental thing has changed and that is Trump.

Trump aside for a second, we shouldn’t be starting any crisis from here financially. Trudeau’s spending has put us in a much weaker position to hold out against our enemy in the White House.

One person is responsible for this trade war. If you live in Canada you should at least know that much.

He got their attention. Like sociopaths generally, Trump and his goons have a big problem seeing other countries as real, with national pride of their own.

This whole line about Trump ‘only joking’ about Canada really doesn’t wash when we’re dealing with a guy who sounds like Tony Soprano half the time. If a dangerous criminal lived next door to you and started joking about wanting to take your house off you, would you really take it as just a bit of eccentric humour?

I‘m sure Starmer has a firm grip on King Charles’s mouth these days, making sure nothing about Canada emerges that might insult the orange nincompoop in any way, shape or form. This is awkward for us colonials because Charles is our, like, head of state, albeit a very part-time one, and we would welcome a little fiery rhetoric right now from him. Our current humiliating situation should demonstrate to any reasonable person that the jig is up on this quaint arrangement. It was a good jig while it lasted but it’s time is well and truly done and dusted now. We need our own head of state answerable to us alone.

1. Our head of state has been silenced on this vital matter by a foreign head of government, a disgraceful situation that I predicted would occur one day - didn’t expect it so soon. 2. President Trump has repeatedly threatened our sovereignty. No reasonable person can deny that any more or pass it off as a joke.

I think that post illustrates a key Poilievre problem in this election. Some on the right are sympathetic to Trump.

It would be different. Imagine being in a national crisis where your country’s head of state is forbidden to say anything by a foreign government. That’s the humiliating predicament we find ourselves in. In many countries a ceremonial head of state is supposed to be above politics, speaking for the entire nation and not just one party or constituency. It turns out we don’t have that. Somewhat underwhelmed does not describe my feelings of betrayal when I listen to Starmer’s flattery of Trump. We have been abandoned by Britain. Could you explain that a little further.

You mean America.

What modern US president has publicly spoken of Canada as Trump has? Other people in Rubio’s position didn’t have to stand behind such outlandish statements.

By whom is it known as that? Say what you like about PPE but it’s the course the British political elite tend to take to, well, an almost comical degree: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2017/feb/23/ppe-oxford-university-degree-that-rules-britain?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Not exactly. The problem is what Trump is saying about Canada. Who was the last president to question our sovereignty like that again and again? It’s not a normal conversation between allies.

The charges looked fairly straightforward to me. He does appear to have benefited from gifts from the Turkish government.

Rubio has to parrot the offensive nonsense of his master. That’s how things are now with them.

I think this particular election requires a different message from Poilievre. As usual there are opponents but there is also a foreign enemy looming far larger. The big question this time: who is the best leader to combat Trumpism?

Just saw the ‘bring it home’ ad for Poilievre. That’s the first positive Tory ad I can recall seeing - no mention of the Liberals. He’ll need an awful lot more of that.