SpankyMcFarland

It’s such an odd campaign, dominated by the whims of a delinquent foreign octogenarian. Many of the new Liberal supporters have misgivings about the party and its troubled stewardship of the country this last decade. Carney is definitely striking a more centrist tone on policy and ducking a debate shows he also has insight into his limitations. He’s a very old dog to be learning new tricks at this stage.

Danielle Smith is clearly a Chinese-made robot working for the Liberals.

So you think Mexican levels of drugs could be coming over and the Americans would be too stupid to know that? That’s your position?

It’s not meaningless at all. It’s a measure of the amount getting through and the amount is being grossly overstated. You think the Americans wouldn’t notice if Mexican levels of fentanyl were coming across their northern border?

Bloody hell, the amount of fentanyl seized by the US last year that is definitely attributable to Canada may be less than one pound! Did you get that, Republicans? One frigging pound. We’ll use your weirdly anachronistic system of weights so as not to confuse you. Great work by the Globe here. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-new-fentanyl-data-undercuts-white-houses-portrayal-of-canadas-role-in/

What matters in general elections is who wins. What usually matters more in special elections, or by-elections, is the swing. America is one of the few democracies with only two big parties. This is problematic for many reasons but at least makes swing assessments between them easy. And the swing in these Florida elections was significant. Any Republican politician who won by less than 15 points will be taking interest and wondering quietly whether Trump’s real agenda of tariff taxes, chainsaw cuts to government and antagonizing every friendly country on earth is really for them.

Another politically clueless press conference by Danielle Smith. In the event of a Grit win she should pen a memoir along these lines: Pierre Poilievre My Part in His Downfall.

This remains my favourite deselection story which may say more about me than I care to think about: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jerry-bance-marketplace-1.3217797

I don’t think it would be a headline issue discussed by governments in trade talks. Look at recreational drugs like N-bomb. They bring tragedy to families across the world, including Canada, but the numbers are too small to merit wider discussion.

The vetting of candidates is going to become challenging as more of their lives are documented than ever before. We’re dealing with people who are passionate about politics already and who may have held extreme views in the past. The Conservatives dealt with this disturbed person swiftly: https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-2025/article/conservative-candidate-gets-boot-after-ctv-news-uncovers-audio-of-him-supporting-public-hangings-joked-trudeau-should-receive-death-penalty/ I’d say all parties are just praying they don’t have to drop people later in the campaign.

They are also saying he is part of the ‘elite’, very weird for a part of the political spectrum that used to celebrate success. I don’t know anybody who is saying that ‘Canadian conservatives are identical to 'maga'’ but there is an overlap which is quite different. It is undeniable that some Tory voters approve of Trump. I meet Canadians like that all the time. Generally speaking, they have no big problem with Trump’s grotesque history of outright fraud.

If all the fentanyl used in the US last year was the amount smuggled in from Canada, nobody would be talking about it. It wouldn’t be a significant problem.

Anyway, thank goodness he is gone. I hope no more like him lurk among the candidates of any party.

As it happens, I prefer PMs to be experienced MPs first but we’ve seen a complete shift in what Tories value. In this campaign they encourage suspicion of a successful executive with experience in foreign countries. Obviously, one tries to paint the other guy as badly as possible but who would have imagined such attack lines from our right-wing party a generation ago? And then there’s the Trump angle. Some Tories remain MAGA fans who loved the line that Trump ‘wasn’t a politician’ when he came down the escalator and dismissed any concerns about his literally criminal business empire. Yet now some of the same people claim to be ‘troubled’ by Carney’s Brookfield associations. It’s a strange world.

The Chiang episode was damaging. He should have been fired immediately. There are no ‘jokes’ permissible on that subject. Our problems with CCP interference are going to get a lot worse so let’s put down a few markers now.

OTOH expectations are lower for Carney. He’s benefiting from the ‘not a politician’ tag at the moment.

If you come from a major position in the private sector you’re likely to have some potential conflicts of interest, not bizarre Trumpy ones where you’re clearly trying to rip the whole country off but as a natural consequence of your previous work. If we want such people in politics we need to give them some leeway on this. Somebody even mentioned the use of tax havens. To this I would say, if something is legal and you don’t like it, campaign to get the law changed.

Not surprising at all. Their support is volatile. Here’s a candidate who should be canned. Joking about handing someone over to the CCP is not acceptable: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-paul-chiang-bounty-joe-tay-conservative-1.7496751

The Tories have a high floor. Their core voters know full well they’re a minority in Canada and turn out loyally for their party. All PP has to do is convince a modest number of centrists that he’s trustworthy on Trump and the election is his. Simple but he’s making heavy weather of it so far.

The total of fentanyl seized is in dispute: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/toronto/article-fentanyl-crisis-canada-us-border/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-white-house-misusing-fentanyl-data-to-justify-tariffs-globe/

It’s an open race and Poilievre has many advantages here as I think I have tried to point out. One of many: his support is more deeply committed and should turn out to vote in greater numbers. Here the lesson for any crazed fan: just because you support a team doesn’t mean you can’t see and suggest ‘opportunities for improvement ’. Denying the obvious failings on your side is a type of loyalty that isn’t useful.

Well, I don’t know anything about Kearney. You know, I don’t think we can. It’s pretty clear that PP is disappointing a lot of people in his own camp. There will always be a few who are unhappy but most fair observers can see it’s far more than that. You know far better than I do that criticism of Poilievre’s campaign is not confined to people like me. It’s a pity you can’t admit that. With all the advantages he has he should be winning easily.

Mulroney excepted, the federal Tories are Canada’s version of Mr. Buckley’s. They taste so bad we’ll only take them if they dilute the dose, as Harper did, or things are truly dire as they were at the beginning of 2025. Poilievre has got to sound more PC in both senses, more centrist on policy and more normal in style. We haven’t the strength for nauseating medicine right now when we’re facing an enemy at the gates.

I wouldn’t have thought that, probably because I place too much weight on retro skills like parliamentary debate. I still think he would have had an easy enough time in 2024 against Trudeau. However, with Trump looming over everything, a dependable, hard to dislike, PC-flavoured Tory of the O’Toole variety would be ahead IMO.

Carney’s position is a response to Trump. It can’t be considered in isolation.