Trump's Economy

[gatomontes99]

Dallas Morning News: Inflation falls to five-year low as prices for fuel, housing slow growth The cost of food, gas, and apartment have soared since the pandemic.

BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

BLS: Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost job

If the GDP comes out where they say it might, this will be insanely good. 

Edited February 13 by gatomontes99

[Nationalist]

Its comin'.

[Hodad]

A "K" shaped economy fueled by record debt and an AI boom/bubble. I wonder where this will lead?

[Nationalist]

5 minutes ago, Hodad said:

A "K" shaped economy fueled by record debt and an AI boom/bubble. I wonder where this will lead?

To a pressing delegate. How do you power it?

I have a feeling AI is around for some time to come. Its human nature to ask "is this possible?".

Im not convinced it's a good idea.

[herbie]

[gatomontes99]

Funny how the left thinks that good news for Amerocans is bad news. 

[Nationalist]

1 hour ago, gatomontes99 said:

Funny how the left thinks that good news for Amerocans is bad news. 

It is bad news for Libbies. They are traitors.

[CdnFox]

On 2/13/2026 at 7:42 AM, gatomontes99 said:

Dallas Morning News: Inflation falls to five-year low as prices for fuel, housing slow growth The cost of food, gas, and apartment have soared since the pandemic.

BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.4 percent before seasonal adjustment.

BLS: Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.3 percent from December to January, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This result stems from an increase of 0.4 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.2 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 130,000 in January, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, social assistance, and construction, while federal government and financial activities lost job

If the GDP comes out where they say it might, this will be insanely good. 

It would be wrong to call it insanely good. But it certainly better than bad   The wage growth is weak, but the inflation numbers (especially the core inflation) is good news. It's got to come down a LITTLE bit but it's still well within control. 

And apperently wages kept up which they havent' been which is good.   Unemployment is still about where it was but it was low to begin with. 

IT's nothing to write home about at all, but it's solid. 

The one sour note of course is the deficit. He's currently propping up the economy with spending.  But, one thing at a time, looks like the consumer economy is on good footing. 

[gatomontes99]

4 hours ago, CdnFox said:

It would be wrong to call it insanely good. But it certainly better than bad   The wage growth is weak, but the inflation numbers (especially the core inflation) is good news. It's got to come down a LITTLE bit but it's still well within control. 

And apperently wages kept up which they havent' been which is good.   Unemployment is still about where it was but it was low to begin with. 

IT's nothing to write home about at all, but it's solid. 

The one sour note of course is the deficit. He's currently propping up the economy with spending.  But, one thing at a time, looks like the consumer economy is on good footing. 

GDP growth is the highest since 99.

Jobs are growing despite the government shrinking by 10%

Real wages are up

You are a hard guy to please. 

[paxamericana]

On 2/13/2026 at 10:40 AM, Hodad said:

A "K" shaped economy fueled by record debt and an AI boom/bubble. I wonder where this will lead?

Not a bubble, it’s real demand.

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

GDP growth is the highest since 99.

So is deficit spending. And all government spending shows up in GDP. Now that doesn't make the GDP numbers a bad thing but it does mean you have to take them with a little grain of salt. The GDP isn't being driven exclusively by market forces. The democrats try to use this argument as well if you'll recall and I said the same thing then with Biden's overspending

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't want to give the impression this is a bad report card. I think when you look at all the numbers you would classify the current economic situation as being a modestly strong and healthy economy. Nothing to write home about but certainly nothing to be unhappy with

Flying the ointment is the government spending and it was before trump showed up and I realize you cannot just turn that around overnight. I think his plan is that the economy will grow fast enough that the deficit will begin to come down on its own just through financial growth, but we haven't hit that quite yet. That might take a year or two

, it should be coming up relatively soon. Hopefully it will include some relief for the deficit spending. He ain't getting back to zero in a year that's for sure

[Hodad]

4 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

Not a bubble, it’s real demand.

The demand is real. The value is not. Not yet anyway. I have a front row seat to the industry-wide scramble to make the promise of AI real. Most of the time it doesn't work out. Some of the value will stick. A LOT of it will fade and the market will correct.

Really mirroring the .com bubble. It's not that the Internet wasn't revolutionary and hugely valuable in the long run, but investors were way over their skis. 

[paxamericana]

51 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Really mirroring the .com bubble. It's not that the Internet wasn't revolutionary and hugely valuable in the long run, but investors were way over their skis. 

I tend to agree but still it is too soon to see what will ”stick”. The application is almost limitless.

Edited February 17 by paxamericana

[gatomontes99]

8 hours ago, CdnFox said:

So is deficit spending. And all government spending shows up in GDP. Now that doesn't make the GDP numbers a bad thing but it does mean you have to take them with a little grain of salt. The GDP isn't being driven exclusively by market forces. The democrats try to use this argument as well if you'll recall and I said the same thing then with Biden's overspending

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't want to give the impression this is a bad report card. I think when you look at all the numbers you would classify the current economic situation as being a modestly strong and healthy economy. Nothing to write home about but certainly nothing to be unhappy with

Flying the ointment is the government spending and it was before trump showed up and I realize you cannot just turn that around overnight. I think his plan is that the economy will grow fast enough that the deficit will begin to come down on its own just through financial growth, but we haven't hit that quite yet. That might take a year or two

, it should be coming up relatively soon. Hopefully it will include some relief for the deficit spending. He ain't getting back to zero in a year that's for sure

Deficit spending was high in the Biden years. It has been trimmed back under Trump. Growth was primarily in consumer spending and exports. So the tariffs that resulted in better trade deals gave us more exports. 

[John Stone]

"It's the economy, stupid"

Still true to a degree .......depends on the emotions of the two layers. 

Main street / Wall Street? 

........... political power lays with  Main  Street. 

[Gaétan]

On 2/15/2026 at 7:46 PM, gatomontes99 said:

Funny how the left thinks that good news for Amerocans is bad news. 

You supported Biden and the Democrats, but now that your boss changed, you’ve flipped to Trump and the Republicans. You are paid to manipulate the population for your government. The favorite meal of Americans, rare beef, has doubled in price, so inflation is 100%.

Edited February 17 by Gaétan

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Deficit spending was high in the Biden years.

Very true and i said it was a bad thing then as well   Although in fairness to trump it's being used for very different things between then and now.  Biden used it to prop up failed economic policy and buy votes with special interests.  Trump is using it more to fund transition and pay for tax cuts he hopes will drive the economy, AND he hoped that tariffs would offset the costs of that and bring the deficit down somewhat.   So - two different approaches. 

But that doesn't change the fact that the deficit is brutally out of control and that offsets the gains to the economy.  if that gov't spending were cut off tomorrow the economy would crash, the growth insn't entirely martket based right now. 

Quote

It has been trimmed back under Trump.

Well, no. Not so far. The difference between 2024 and 2025 is almost zero. It went from something like 1.8 to 1.75 trillion, basically no difference. 

The CONCERN is that the fed estimates for 2026 at this point is that the deficit will CLIMB this year to 1,9 trillion and will continue to rise each year after that based on CURRENT spending projections. That's the budget that was already passed this year (remember the "shutdown")  So  it's going to be higher this year than it was last year. And unless something radically changes it'll be higher the year after that as well. 

But of course, trump COULD address that one way or another in his upcoming budgets in 2027 and 2028. But that's not going to be easy, the current economic growth won't cover it, he doesn't want to add taxes. he's already cut a lot of spending, so where's that coming from?  Tariffs are only likely lo produce about 250 billion, and that's already figurd into the 1.9 trillion figure. Tariffs aren't likely to increase that much and if they do it'll hurt the economic growth. 

Soooo.... we'll see.  But the us cannot be racking up 2 trillion dollar deficits year after year for very long. Basically, you're funding today's economy with tomorrow's income and we all know how that turns out.  And it's currently getting WORSE under trump, not better. 

Quote

Growth was primarily in consumer spending and exports. So the tariffs that resulted in better trade deals gave us more exports. 

No, that's not how tariffs work    Tariffs reduce imports, they don't improve exports   

The export numbers are good news,  THat's a healthy sign.

but the consumer spending isn't really.  Where are the consumers getting that money? A LOT of it is coming from deficit funded govt'  spending. Both directly and indirectly. Gov't spends money with company A, company A pays it's staff, staff goes out and buys consumer goods.  And the companies that sell those consumer good make more money so they pay THEIR staff who go out and buy more goods, etc. 

IF the gov't cut that 1.75 trillion deficit out of its' spending the consumer market would crash hard. And that's why i say it's been artificially keeping the economy afloat. 

As of this moment in time the modestly strong economic growth that the US is seeing is being funded by deficit government spending. So while this isn't bad news by any stretch of the imagination it's not good news until it can happen on its own with government deficits shrinking instead of growing.

Anyone can buy themselves an economy, until the credit card runs out. Will have to see if he has a plan for that

 

[Fluffypants]

12 hours ago, paxamericana said:

Not a bubble, it’s real demand.

Honestly its a bubble, there is little profit in it. It is essentially a fancy search engine which has a hard time distinguishing between real and fake. Thus many lawyers trying to count on it for briefs are getting fined because the output found some fan fiction cases they cite.

[gatomontes99]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Well, no. Not so far. The difference between 2024 and 2025 is almost zero. It went from something like 1.8 to 1.75 trillion, basically no difference. 

No. That is a huge difference. Before Trump, that deficit increases every year. That fact that it dropped, even a little, is monumental. 

2 hours ago, Gaétan said:

You supported Biden and the Democrats, but now that your boss changed, you’ve flipped to Trump and the Republicans. You are paid to manipulate the population for your government. The favorite meal of Americans, rare beef, has doubled in price, so inflation is 100%.

Wtf?

[CdnFox]

9 minutes ago, Fluffypants said:

Honestly its a bubble, there is little profit in it. It is essentially a fancy search engine which has a hard time distinguishing between real and fake. Thus many lawyers trying to count on it for briefs are getting fined because the output found some fan fiction cases they cite.

Flashbacks to 1999

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, gatomontes99 said:

No. That is a huge difference. Before Trump, that deficit increases every year. That fact that it dropped, even a little, is monumental. 

 

It's tiny and it's going up again this year so we're back to climbing every year under trump.

There's a lot of positive things you can say about what's happening in the economy but it's important to be honest with yourself and not behave like the democrats who convince themselves against all facts and figures that Biden was doing really great

We spend about the same and now this year with the budget that trump has passed he will be spending considerably more so we're back to year after year increases according to his current fiscal plan

This is a simple truth and it's important to accept it for what it is and deal with it with your representatives. The deficit was out of control under Biden, the deficit is currently under out of control under trump. He was the one that forced this budget through without changes after a government shutdown. This isn't a budget that was inflicted on him by the democrats. And it's got 150 billion dollars more spending in deficit with more plans for the following year

And even under Biden he had years where the deficit got better.

Trump has a deficit problem. And it's a huge problem. If he doesn't get that under control soon then there will be a backlash down the road which will severely impact the American economy and a massively negative way. The us spent about the same and now this year with the budget that trump has passed he will be spending considerably more so we're back to year after year increases according to his current fiscal plan.

This is a simple truth and it's important to accept it for what it is and deal with it with your representatives. The deficit was out of control under Biden, the deficit is currently under out of control under trump . He was the one that forced this budget through without changes after a government shutdown . This isn't a budget that was inflicted on him by the democrats .

And it's got 150 billion dollars more spending in deficit, with more plans for the following year. If you take out the cover years he's scheduled to become seriously worse than Biden was.

Trump has a deficit problem. And it's a huge problem . If he doesn't get that under control soon then there will be a backlash down the road which will severely impact the American economy and a massively negative way.

 

[gatomontes99]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

The CONCERN is that the fed estimates for 2026 at this point is that the deficit will CLIMB this year to 1,9 trillion and will continue to rise each year after that based on CURRENT spending projections.

The Fed and the CBO use woefully inaccurate numbers. Have for as long as u have been paying attention to these matters (starting in the late 90's). The new budget is almost done and cuts a lot of spending. The tariffs are bringing in plenty of new revenue and growth over 4% will add even more revenue. We do need to do a lot more to cut spending, but that will only happen if we get rid of the threaten to fillabuster is a fillabuster rule. Once that is gone, a real deep cutting budget can be passed.

[paxamericana]

4 hours ago, Fluffypants said:

fancy search engine

No, it’s a training model that can be used to teach other systems. Including but not limited to robots and self driving cars. 

[robosmith]

On 2/15/2026 at 6:47 PM, Nationalist said:

It is bad news for Libbies. They are traitors.

Trump is the LIAR-in-Chief, and you constantly defend HIS LIES because you are a LIAR, too.

[robosmith]

On 2/13/2026 at 8:40 AM, Hodad said:

A "K" shaped economy fueled by record debt and an AI boom/bubble. I wonder where this will lead?

Down. I bought Nvidia April 2025, doubled my money by November and got out. Been going sideways ever since.

Quote

Based on data released on February 20, 2026, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. 

Fox Business +1

This growth rate was lower than expected, marking a sharp deceleration from the 4.4% growth experienced in the third quarter of 2025. 

Fox Business +1

Key Details for Q4 2025:

• Driver of Slowdown: The lower-than-expected growth was heavily impacted by a six-week government shutdown and a cooling of consumer spending.
• Consumer Spending: While still growing, consumer spending slowed to a 2.4% annual rate, down from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
• Economic Context: Despite the slowdown, the economy was supported by continued, albeit slower, investment, with some economists describing it as a "K-shaped" recovery where high-income households and specific sectors like AI continued to perform well, while others felt the pressure of inflation and debt. 
  KSL.com +2

Note: Some projections made earlier, such as those by the Congressional Budget Office in early 2025, had estimated that growth might average around 1.8% in the latter part of the decade, but the advance data for Q4 2025 showed a 1.4% rate.