tradewar CHINA FOLDS! DEAL MADE! details to follow

[gatomontes99]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Yeah but so far none of those are actually in the deal. The reducing some of the tariffs on both sides but that's about it and that buys them sometimes to negotiate. Meanwhile those tariffs are still affecting the American economy

Yep. Its awful. We have $6T+ in new foreign investments, increased job growth and slowing inflation. Its just horrific here.

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

Imagine it's the best they could do considering these are sensitive negotiations that aren't going to be resolved in 15 minutes, but I think it was a little premature to suggest that they had struck a deal. It's more like they struck a deal to start talking seriously about striking a deal.

Still, any news is good news

Would we have that without tariffs? F-No.

[CdnFox]

36 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Yep. Its awful. We have $6T+ in new foreign investments, increased job growth and slowing inflation. Its just horrific here.

 

Do you really    And can you show me the actual new buildings or factories? Can you point to the actual workers? 

No? Hmmm  

Someone has said they'll invest. Announcements aren't worth much.  there are often delays. These aren't contracts. 

Job growth is flaccid. Wages are stagnant and job growth is meh. It looked better for a minute with this month exceeding expectations but then it turned out the last two months were overreported. So unemployment is still around 4.5  to 5 (unadjusted).   It's not horrible at all, but it's actually lower than what you were on track for before the trade wars and while inflation went up by a fairly modest 2.5 percent, wages didn't at the same rate so you're seeing stagflation with the tariffs expected to drive up the Consumer price index next month. 

Again, not the disaster that some suggest at this point, but definitely not a success yet either. Damage has been done, the economy is underperforming and stagflation is a real threat. 

But, changes today don't show up for many months, so it's possible the situation will change and the net benefits will still outweight the negatives by far at the end of the day. 

Don't get caught up by the flash on either side of the spectrum.  There's no investment till it's been invested, not announced. And one or two slow months does not equal a catastrophe.  Trust the proper indicators and it'll be a bit before they tell us the truth one way or another. 

 

[gatomontes99]

19 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Do you really    And can you show me the actual new buildings or factories? Can you point to the actual workers? 

No? Hmmm  

Oh ffs, the ink isn't even dry on the deals.

20 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Someone has said they'll invest. Announcements aren't worth much.  there are often delays. These aren't contracts. 

They also aren't no's.

 

[herbie]

Move the goalposts to the 35 yard line and claim you made a touchdown. Be just like Boss Daddy Trump

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Oh ffs, the ink isn't even dry on the deals.

 

 

They're not deals. That's the point. They're announcements. They have no legal weight, the people involved are not obliged to spend a nickle, they can back out, change their minds, delay, whatever they want.

When they've spent the money, they've spent the money.  And it will show up in the GDP figures.  Then it's real. Otherwise it's smoke and mirrors.  Canada had this HUGE investment by honda for an ev plant, all done and dusted and announced.... today they announced it's delayed for 2 years. And in two years they can cancel it.  15 billion dollar deal which in comparison to the us economy would be a 150 billion dollar deal. 

When the money's spent you have it, right now it's just bullshit and 'mabey's.   Better than nothing but of no value till they start spending, and that's just a simple truth 

Quote

They also aren't no's.

Sure.  It's not BAD news thats for sure. Which is why they're rushing out these announcements as much as possible, they want some good news to hit the markets and boost stocks and such.  Which is perfectly legit. 

I have no doubt some of the money will get spent, companies spend billions of dollars every year investing and such. As you can see here even in 2024 companies invested about an average of 6.4 trillion dollars PER QUARTER in actual investment, that's per quarter not spread over a number of years.

United States - Gross domestic investment - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1947-2024 Historical

So there's going to be some investment.  Which is good. But the announcements don't add up to much.

The problem is that we won't see real results for at least another quarter. So maybe september we'll start seeing REAL good news.  And that's a long time away. They have to give markets and people a litlte hope between now and then. 

 

Also  remember the tariffs are phase one of his plan. Tax cuts are coming up and that's phase 2.  If we're being honest, i think that's going to do more than the tariffs. I think they fumbled the tariffs a fair bit and they're not going to get the results they were hoping for out of them, but the tax cuts almost always spur some growth. 

[robosmith]

7 hours ago, WestCanMan said:

Because of how different countries define a covid death, among other things. 

FYI a "covid death" isn't like a "cancer death" or a MVA death. 

It's not uncommon for cancer to be the sole cause of a death for an otherwise-healthy person, ditto for a motor-vehicle accident, whereas it's unheard of for covid to be the sole cause of the death of a healthy person. 

If an octogenarian with stage 4 cancer and diabetes coughed this morning, last week, or ten days ago, and then died at noon, does that qualify as a "covid death"? It depends where they lived, and how much pressure there was from the MSM and local politicians on the medical community, to record the death as being "from covid". But the answer is usually "yes".

• In NY State the governor was caught interfering in covid death accounting, and forcing care homes to take in people who were likely covid-positive and forbade them from being tested prior to going into the care homes. Maybe we didn't do that kind of thing here. <- and all of that stuff wasn't enough to get him fired. He was fired because he may have smacked a girl's bottom or smooched someone on the cheek at some point. 

It is true that many elderly with CHRONIC diseases can be pushed over the edge by suffocation from a COVID lung infection. While not the sole cause, it was what turned a chronic condition fatal..

[WestCanMan]

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-china-agrees-fully-open-countrys-markets-us-businesses

• Specifically, the trade deal stipulates that the U.S. will cut down its tariffs against Chinese imports from 145% to 30%. Likewise, China will reduce its tariffs against U.S. imports from 125% to 10%. 

  However, tariffs against some Chinese imports will not lighten up, according to Trump. Existing tariffs against cars, steel and aluminum will still remain in place, he said. 

Trump is really working the rust belt hard. 

All of these protections for the auto industry, aluminum and steel play right to the voters in Michigan, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. 

[xul]

The greatest enemy of USA is some of its citizens' IQ....😜😢

The phases of this tariff war:

Phase 1

On February 2, US imposed 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods;

On February 10，China imposed 10-15% reciprocal tariff on American coal, LNG, oil, agricultural machines, large displacement cars and pickup trucks ;

Phase 2 

On March 3, US imposed  additional 10%  "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods;

On March 4, China announced 10-15% tariff on American agriculture products;

Phase 3

On April 2, Trump announce 34% tariff on Chinese goods;

On April 4, China announce 34% tariff on American goods;

After Phase 3

Trump added the tariff up to 184% on Chinese goods;

China added 125% tariff on American goods;

 

The current "cease fire" agreement

Now the current agreement is to roll back the tariffs on both sides to Phase 2, and both sides keep add 10% base tariffs, so:

US side tariff:            10% base tariff+20% fentanyl tariff

China side tariff:        10% base tariff+10-15% reciprocal fentanyl tariff on American auto, energy and agricultural products.

The next step of negotiation is to cancel the fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs.

Who wins?

I guess some Trump believers would say: look the figures. Trump impose 20% fentanyl tariff on all Chinese goods but Chinese reciprocal tariffs are only imposed on partial American goods, so Trump wins. But they are wrong because:

American buyers can't find replacement of most Chinese goods, so regardless the tariff is 10% or 30%, they have to buy these goods. Chinese sellers are mostly not effected by the tariff. It is American importers who pay the tariff and American consumers will pay the tariff in the end.

On the other hand, these American goods under Chinese reciprocal tariff mostly can be replaced by goods from other countries. Oil for example: If you were a Chinese importer, why would you pay 10%+10%=20% tariff for American oil if you can buy 0% tariff oil from Saudi, Russia or Canada?

Even those US goods which are not listed on Chinese reciprocal tariff may have some problem in Chinese market. Boeing for example: If a Chinese customer needs to pay 10% base tariff to buy a Boeing plane, why shouldn't he buy a 0% tariff Airbus? 

China doesn't impose reciprocal tariff on all US goods because Chinese leaders are smarter than their current US counterparts---they know if they imposed tariff on irreplaceable American goods, like CPU or something, It would  just punish Chinese people not US.😂

 

Edited Thursday at 11:17 PM by xul