Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, betsy said:

 

I suppose, I'll keep my kleenex handy.  😁

Yes, either way a nice bottle of Scotch on standby is called for

[WestCanMan]

On 4/27/2025 at 2:46 AM, betsy said:

 

It always "tightens up" in the last few days of the campaign. 

The LPOC lead was never 11%.

like we've been saying all along, the "huge LPOC lead in the polls" is just advertising for Mark Carney. It basically says "A large portion of Canadians see exactly what we see in Mr Dreamy and Mr Hateful."

End of the day the CPC win the popular vote, but by a lot less that they would have if the news and polling were legitimate. 

Edited April 28 by WestCanMan

[CdnFox]

Just now, WestCanMan said:

It always "tightens up" in the last few days of the campaign. 

The LPOC lead was never 11%.

like we've been saying all along, the "huge LPOC lead in the polls" is just advertising for Mark Carney. It basically says "A large portion of Canadians see exactly what we see in Mr Dreamy and Mr Hateful."

 Whoever's got momentum tends to go up one or two points or so and whoever doesn't have it tends to go down one or two points.

But this was been tightening up all week, I posted about that right at the beginning of the week. And it magically happened with a huge massive shift for many of the posters going into the last week

As you say, the lead was manufactured. Some companies like ecos did it intentionally because Frank Grieves hates Poilievre and has stated that he would do anything necessary to make sure he doesn't win which obviously includes skewing his polls, I think a number of the others did not want to look too out of whack just in case.

The race was always fairly close I think and the small liberal advantage evaporated by the end of the third week. If I had to guess right now I would say the CPC should be actually polling about two points ahead of The liberals. Sadly that would still mean a liberal minority government, but I have a feeling that voter turnout may decide this election and it might give the conservatives the edge they need to get a weak minority.

In my perfect world, the liberals probably win but by like three seats  With any party including the greens being able to take them down with the cpc  they will wind up looking ineffective and stupid And it will be a short-lived minority followed by a conservative win when people see how terrible carney really is

[WestCanMan]

6 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

If I had to guess right now I would say the CPC should be actually polling about two points ahead of The liberals. Sadly that would still mean a liberal minority government, but I have a feeling that voter turnout may decide this election and it might give the conservatives the edge they need to get a weak minority.

In my perfect world, the liberals probably win but by like three seats  With any party including the greens being able to take them down with the cpc  they will wind up looking ineffective and stupid And it will be a short-lived minority followed by a conservative win when people see how terrible carney really is

My hope for Canada is that the CPC do better than expected in Ontario, the Bloc get back up to 40 seats, and the NDP siphon more votes away from the Chinese than expected. 

Even a small majority gov't will be great for the country. I don't want to see Poilievre have to deal with slimy Libs, Greens, BQ or NDP to get things done. It would basically be a Lib gov't all over again. 

[taxme]

On 4/24/2025 at 6:45 PM, CdnFox said:

Bettors strongly back Conservative win, despite a Liberal polling lead | National Post

A recent Postmedia-Leger poll last week found that the Liberals are hanging onto the lead in the federal election with 43 per cent of support nationally, five points ahead of the Conservatives who are at 38 per cent support.

But the sports betting site FanDuel, which only operates in Ontario and carries odds for political events, says that 70 per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party, with only 28 per cent of bettors wagering on the Liberals. The company says that more than 80 per cent of the bets on the Conservatives were placed after March 25, when the election was underway and the Liberals were pulling away as favourites.

 

I just don't get this election anymore. Usually the bedding is a pretty good indicate of how things are:. Every time I turn around there's another indicator that conflicts with every other indicator which conflicts with every other indicator.

I'm usually pretty good at reading the tea leaves, but this is like reading the tea leaves while wearing a blindfold inside a tornado.

I'm just going to stick with what I originally said at the beginning when and everyone's going to be surprised.

The only poll that will count is the one we will see tomorrow morning. It better be a conservative victory or else Canada is doomed. WEF globalist Corney will rip apart this country to pieces. 

Apparently by 2035 there will be no more ICE vehicles allowed to be sold in Canada. Every year, less and less ICE vehicles will be allowed to be sold in Canada. Corney the dictator has spoken and has told us all as to what kind of car we can drive. Are we living in a communist country or what? I do believe that we truly are today. Shocking indeed. 

[CdnFox]

45 minutes ago, WestCanMan said:

My hope for Canada is that the CPC do better than expected in Ontario, the Bloc get back up to 40 seats, and the NDP siphon more votes away from the Chinese than expected. 

Even a small majority gov't will be great for the country. I don't want to see Poilievre have to deal with slimy Libs, Greens, BQ or NDP to get things done. It would basically be a Lib gov't all over again. 

Oh for sure.  Even  a majority of like 3 seats is all it takes. 

The thing is, it's quite possible and even probable that the CPC will overperform the polls in BC. They might even close up alberta a bit.  And i think they'll do better than expected in Ontario. 

But ... the indications are that the NDP won't be bouncing back. Which means the libs will keep their votes.  Voter turn out may be an issue but it's hard to say. 

I think the best we could reasonably likely expect is about 165 seats. which would put us about 8 seats shy of a majority. we'd have a strong minority and we'd be in the driver's seat but i think a majority would require us doing a little better in ontario than it looks like we're going to be able to reasonably do. 

Still - this is Canada. It wouldn't be the biggest upset we've seen .

[SpankyMcFarland]

Apparently, the Liberals outperformed in the advance vote which is counted late in a lot of cases. They may break even in Atlantic Canada and a majority government is possible. . 

[CdnFox]

47 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Apparently, the Liberals outperformed in the advance vote which is counted late in a lot of cases. They may break even in Atlantic Canada and a majority government is possible. . 

They're not deliberately counted late. But they count one box at a time so some of the ones that are remaining me very well be advanced. But a majority government isn't possible

[SpankyMcFarland]

5 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

They're not deliberately counted late. But they count one box at a time so some of the ones that are remaining me very well be advanced. But a majority government isn't possible

No, not deliberately. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

FPTP is an elderly system built for two national parties and a few regional parties. Smaller national parties are wasting their time and I think voters are wising up to that. 

Edited April 29 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

FPTP is an elderly system built for two national parties and a few regional parties. Smaller national parties are wasting their time and I think voters are wising up to that. 

We just came off of 6 years of minority governments where every party had to say and had an effect. And in fact that has been the case for the vast majority of time in the 21st century so far.

First past the post is the best possible system we could have even though it's not perfect. All others are worse. Which is pretty much what you could say about democracy as well

[SpankyMcFarland]

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

We just came off of 6 years of minority governments where every party had to say and had an effect. And in fact that has been the case for the vast majority of time in the 21st century so far.

First past the post is the best possible system we could have even though it's not perfect. All others are worse. Which is pretty much what you could say about democracy as well

FPTP makes voting a waste of time in many constituencies and reduces alternatives to what we have. if we were more mature we would have formal coalitions and be honest about the compromises needed to run a country. 

 

[TreeBeard]

11 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

FPTP makes voting a waste of time in many constituencies and reduces alternatives to what we have. if we were more mature we would have formal coalitions and be honest about the compromises needed to run a country. 

 

Agreed.  I hope the NDP/Greens, if they hold the balance of power, force the Libs to live up to their promises of 10 years ago. 

[CdnFox]

47 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

FPTP makes voting a waste of time in many constituencies and reduces alternatives to what we have. if we were more mature we would have formal coalitions and be honest about the compromises needed to run a country. 

 

Not only is that untrue but it doesn't change if you move to representational. It has the appearance of change but it really doesn't. You actually run that through a bunch of Elections but you get is some minor differences but no real actual change in actual representation because we have a party system

What does happen though is you tend to get management by committee and popularity. It dilutes the ability of an actual party to do things and makes it all about popularity contests basically you wind up running a non-Stop 365 day election campaign. It is extremely inefficient and it doesn't work

If you want to increase representation there are better ways to do it by far. It would be easier and vastly more effective to improve the power of minorities without removing all of the responsibility and accountability that comes with our current system.

First pass the post is the only system that actually works well and if you feel that we need more representation than you tweak it. But having 50 different parties with 50 different agendas spending all of their time trying to get in front of the cameras and not worrying about what's good for the country but who they can blame things on in no way shape or form makes our country better

[SpankyMcFarland]

13 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Not only is that untrue but it doesn't change if you move to representational. It has the appearance of change but it really doesn't. You actually run that through a bunch of Elections but you get is some minor differences but no real actual change in actual representation because we have a party systeM

In multiseat PR, parties end up with a much closer seat count to their vote count than we do or the Brits do. And if parties are mature they form coalitions that last. 

Even worse, FPTP favours regional parties, often separatist ones like the BQ or SNP, over national parties like the NDP or Reform UK. 

 

Edited April 29 by SpankyMcFarland

[CdnFox]

5 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

In multiseat PR, parties end up with a much closer seat count to their vote count than we do or the Brits do. And if parties are mature they form coalitions that last. 

 

 

That's just not what happens. Anybody who gets into politics gets into politics because they want to win. Nobody winds up being accountable, it's nothing but a popularity contest, elections could happen in any moment, there's instability no accountability and nobody has the ability to put forward a four-year plan and actually execute it with any reliability

Management by committee fails every single time. Again I would refer you to the last 10 years where most of it was minority with so-called mature parties forming coalitions that lasted. It was a disaster

That is not the way to improve the ability of smaller parties to have a voice.

You need to understand something fundamental. Democracy is a horrible way to run things. Democracy is the tyranny of the majority. Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on what's for dinner. Democracy is exclusionary by its very nature.

However, having democratic input into who runs the country on a regular basis solves a lot of the problems with the other systems. But it has to be severely limited or else you get some really horrible problems associated with democratic governance.

First pass the post makes sense and works well. As I say if you want to improve the representation of other parties then there are far better ways to do it

[SpankyMcFarland]

Well, at least Poilievre conceded that his party lost. We haven’t descended to America’s level yet. 

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Well, at least Poilievre conceded that his party lost. We haven’t descended to America’s level yet. 

We'll have to wait for carney to sell us out before that happens

[Chrissy1979]

On 4/24/2025 at 9:29 PM, CdnFox said:

And not just a win but a strong majority. It is painfully obvious that some posters were deliberately faking their results. There can be no doubt that ekos Deliberately lied. Has their owner said they would sometime ago

But others that are normally considered relatively reliable are also way off if a conservative victory happens. In fact they will have much explaining to do, it will be difficult to dismiss this as simply being an error and methodology

Did Ekos lie when they predicted the total collapse of the Liberals and a CPC supermajority in December?

[ExFlyer]

9 hours ago, CdnFox said:

We'll have to wait for carney to sell us out before that happens

Exactly what a poor loser says

[Dave L]

The wool was pulled over Conservative voters eyes with the "vote for change" 3 word liner that Poilievre was saying.  The west didn't vote for change, they voted for the status quo.  Sending more Liberal MPs to Ottawa would have been a vote for change and made the voice of the west heard within the government.  When a leader can't win his own seat, they need a new leader, the people have spoken.

Edited April 29 by Dave L
additional comment

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Dave L said:

The wool was pulled over Conservative voters eyes with the "vote for change" 3 word liner that Poilievre was saying.  The west didn't vote for change, they voted for the status quo.  Sending more Liberal MPs to Ottawa would have been a vote for change and made the voice of the west heard within the government

.  When a leader can't win his own seat, they need a new leader, the sooner the better.

The west absolutely voted for change. Something like 3/4 of the seats in the west went conservative.

The liberals won of minority, and they had almost the same number of people vote for them as the conservatives did

Carney is absolutely just like Justin and is going to run the country the same way with a few cosmetic differences. This was not change, the same liberals doing the same job with the same program and platform are still in power

And we don't need a lefty liberal like yourself telling us who should run our party. The guy won more seats, and did the best boat wise from any conservative going back to Mulroney. If trump hadn't scared the ndp and bloc voters so badly this would be a huge cpc majority 

Hard to hate someone who delivered close to 41 percent of the vote. 

[Dave L]

14 minutes ago, Chrissy1979 said:

Did Ekos lie when they predicted the total collapse of the Liberals and a CPC supermajority in December?

No but Carney killed both the Carbon tax and Trudeau stepped aside.  These were the only things PP wanted to do.  Polls from that day on were fairly accurate.

[CdnFox]

21 minutes ago, Chrissy1979 said:

Did Ekos lie when they predicted the total collapse of the Liberals and a CPC supermajority in December?

Looks that way

[Dave L]

Just now, CdnFox said:

The west absolutely voted for change. Something like 3/4 of the seats in the west went conservative.

The liberals won of minority, and they had almost the same number of people vote for them as the conservatives did

Carney is absolutely just like Justin and is going to run the country the same way with a few cosmetic differences. This was not change, the same liberals doing the same job with the same program and platform are still in power

And we don't need a lefty liberal like yourself telling us who should run our party. The guy won more seats, and did the best boat wise from any conservative going back to Mulroney. If trump hadn't scared the ndp and bloc voters so badly this would be a huge cpc majority 

Hard to hate someone who delivered close to 41 percent of the vote. 

I don't hate PP.  I never said anything of the sort.  When the Conservative movement installs a leader, people will follow they will get elected as the government.  The only person to blame, for the CPC is PP.  Excuses are just that, excuses.  The failure of PP to adjust to the circumstances is not a valid reason to blame anyone else.  Did you ever notice that the name calling from you is your only real consistency.  The spin cycle is over, time to put it in the dryer.