Charting the Danger of the Modern Left

Deluge · March 12

9 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

Unemployment is defined as below. If the top goes up due to federal layoffs.. the ratio goes up. I challenge you to disprove this. It is a mathematical certainty. Second, it is human nature to see a rising unemployment rate and to react. It may only rise from 4.1 to 4.6 but folks will react.. your acceptance of that reality again is not necessary.

unemployed / labor force (employed + unemployed).

I'm not worried about federal layoffs. I'm not worried about an uptick in unemployment. All I care about is trimming the government fat, and DOGE is doing one hell of a job at that.

I'm here for the not too distant future for this country and it looks pretty f*cking bright. Your concerns will be swallowed up in a robust economy.

impartialobserver · March 12

4 minutes ago, Deluge said:

I'm not worried about federal layoffs. I'm not worried about an uptick in unemployment. All I care about is trimming the government fat, and DOGE is doing one hell of a job at that.

I'm here for the not too distant future for this country and it looks pretty f*cking bright. Your concerns will be swallowed up in a robust economy.

By all metrics.. economy is going to see a slow down in the short term (read that carefully). Unemployment up, CES (the jobs number that the BLS put out) jobs down, stock market down, and in most states per capita personal income. That will result most likely in Dems doing better in the midterms like it or not. Believe it or not.. you are only person and your one vote does not change every Congressional race. I do not have an emotional dog in the fight unlike you. I am just explaining the math equation that is economic metrics.

Edited March 12 by impartialobserver

Deluge · March 12

9 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

By all metrics.. economy is going to see a slow down in the short term (read that carefully). Unemployment up, CES (the jobs number that the BLS put out) jobs down, stock market down, and in most states per capita personal income. That will result most likely in Dems doing better in the midterms like it or not. Believe it or not.. you are only person and your one vote does not change every Congressional race. I do not have an emotional dog in the fight unlike you. I am just explaining the math equation that is economic metrics.

By all metrics? It sounds like woke bullshit to me. Where are you getting this information?

gatomontes99 · March 12

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

By all metrics.. economy is going to see a slow down in the short term (read that carefully). Unemployment up, CES (the jobs number that the BLS put out) jobs down, stock market down, and in most states per capita personal income. That will result most likely in Dems doing better in the midterms like it or not. Believe it or not.. you are only person and your one vote does not change every Congressional race. I do not have an emotional dog in the fight unlike you. I am just explaining the math equation that is economic metrics.

Lmao. Do you know how bad it has to be for the government to layoff a small fraction of its workforce and that has a substantial effect on jobs reports?

Nationalist · March 12

1 hour ago, impartialobserver said:

By all metrics.. economy is going to see a slow down in the short term (read that carefully). Unemployment up, CES (the jobs number that the BLS put out) jobs down, stock market down, and in most states per capita personal income. That will result most likely in Dems doing better in the midterms like it or not. Believe it or not.. you are only person and your one vote does not change every Congressional race. I do not have an emotional dog in the fight unlike you. I am just explaining the math equation that is economic metrics.

And this is probably mostly true. Hence trump's blizzard of changes. However...if the economy begins to turn before the midterms...all bets are off.

eyeball · March 12

On 3/7/2025 at 1:22 PM, Deluge said:

It sure is.

What a f*cking mess.

You aren't better off now than you were 50 days ago? He's stickin' it to libbies so that must count for something. Are the shits and giggles wearing a little too thin?

CdnFox · March 12

8 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Tariffs and the federal layoffs are going to make for an interesting midterm election season. Its a simple math equation.. if you add to the unemployed number, the unemployment rate goes up. Folks tend to react to that number.. like it or not. Is the increase going to be profound? Probably not. You will see this increase in the april numbers.

The challenges that the Matthew just mentioned is simple, but it also tends to lead to a slightly more complex interaction whereby more people unemployed tends to lead to more people unemployed.

The tariffs and other actions may see fewer people employed in general and when you compound that with layoffs the number can begin to climb dramatically.

There is a very real chance that well before the midterms the us could be in a declared official recession and a modestly deep one at that. It hasn't gone quite that far yet but there's damage being done structurally that puts him at risk of that. The tariffs are causing slowdowns in the market and employment, the stock market plummet is happening because investors are sitting on the sidelines instead of putting their money in the market because of uncertainty. Uncertainty that isn't likely to change any time in the immediate future according to trump.

And trump isn't helping by saying that they're probably will be a recession and that that's okay.

If we enter into a recession and the job numbers are down and costs are up and eggs are unaffordable and gasoline is pricey he is going to have one hell of a mess to deal with come the midterms.

And not only is he at risk of losing the house in the senate but if they managed to pick up 15 of the current republican seats they would have enough to successfully impeach him and make it stick. That's got to be in the back of his mind

eyeball · March 12

1 minute ago, CdnFox said:

he is going to have one hell of a mess to deal with come the midterms.

Shitty midterms won't bother him a bit. They'll just inspire him to throw even more gasoline on the conflagration he's igniting.

CdnFox · March 12

1 minute ago, eyeball said:

Shitty midterms won't bother him a bit. They'll just inspire him to throw even more gasoline on the conflagration he's igniting.

The vast majority of the senate seats up for grabs are republican if 15 of them flip there will be enough republicans in the senate to actually vote yes on impeachment

It's kind of a big deal. Not to mention if a bunch of senators and congressmen think they're going to lose their seats their support for him will change

Deluge · March 12

12 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Lmao. Do you know how bad it has to be for the government to layoff a small fraction of its workforce and that has a substantial effect on jobs reports?

I think what he's trying to say is that the majority of Americans want big government, and they will turn on the Republicans if DOGE continues making cuts.

Or some shit like that.

Deluge · March 12

10 hours ago, eyeball said:

You aren't better off now than you were 50 days ago?

Of course I'm better off - what a stupid question. The border's secure, DEI is going extinct, and the IRS's back is against the wall.

The mess I'm referring to comes from the Biden administration - those perverts really did hate this country, and they still do.

Deluge · March 12

12 hours ago, Nationalist said:

And this is probably mostly true. Hence trump's blizzard of changes. However...if the economy begins to turn before the midterms...all bets are off.

I like what Trump's trying to do, and I think we'll be just fine.

Nationalist · March 12

28 minutes ago, Deluge said:

I like what Trump's trying to do, and I think we'll be just fine.

I hope you're right

Deluge · March 12

19 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I hope you're right

I think I am.

Unlike his last term, Trump is completely unfettered. He's in a lame duck presidency so there is absolutely ZERO to lose - no sucking up to anyone. All he needs to do is keep laying the groundwork for his MAGA successor.

Nationalist · March 12

19 minutes ago, Deluge said:

I think I am.

Unlike his last term, Trump is completely unfettered. He's in a lame duck presidency so there is absolutely ZERO to lose - no sucking up to anyone. All he needs to do is keep laying the groundwork for his MAGA successor.

I think the question is more like, 'is imposing all these reciprocal tariffs a "good" thing for all concerned?'

We won't know the answer for several months.

Edited March 12 by Nationalist

Deluge · March 12

2 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

I think the question is more like, 'is imposing all these reciprocal tariffs a "good" thing for all concerned?'

We won't know the answer for several months.

Karoline Leavitt spoke to that I believe yesterday. It's stuff I've never heard so I don't know what to think.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6369894923112

eyeball · March 12

49 minutes ago, Deluge said:

Karoline Leavitt spoke to that I believe yesterday. It's stuff I've never heard so I don't know what to think.

https://www.foxnews.com/video/6369894923112

You can't go wrong putting your faith in the stuff Karoline Leavitt does.

...tariffs are tax hikes on other countries...tariffs are tax cuts for American people...

Yup, it'll be rainbows and lollipops for all. Sunny ways for sure.

LMAO!

CdnFox · March 12

3 hours ago, Deluge said:

I think I am.

Unlike his last term, Trump is completely unfettered. He's in a lame duck presidency so there is absolutely ZERO to lose - no sucking up to anyone. All he needs to do is keep laying the groundwork for his MAGA successor.

That's not quite accurate. If the republicans who remain since that they're going to lose their seats because of his antics they will turn on it. A president can lose power extremely quickly if his party decides they're not behind him.

And he runs into real problems if the democrats managed to flip the tables in the house in the senate in the next midterms which is a very real possibility. There's no doubt in my mind that the democrats will impeach him and throw him out and possibly in jail if they get a quarter of a chance.

If he winds up plunging the country into a recession he may very well face that reality.

Deluge · March 13

18 hours ago, CdnFox said:

That's not quite accurate. If the republicans who remain since that they're going to lose their seats because of his antics they will turn on it. A president can lose power extremely quickly if his party decides they're not behind him.

And he runs into real problems if the democrats managed to flip the tables in the house in the senate in the next midterms which is a very real possibility. There's no doubt in my mind that the democrats will impeach him and throw him out and possibly in jail if they get a quarter of a chance.

If he winds up plunging the country into a recession he may very well face that reality.

That's why these next two years are critical.

If it turns out that the man is an unhinged lunatic, we won't be any worse off than we would've been with Harris, so it's a wash as far as I'm concerned.

impartialobserver · March 13

On 3/11/2025 at 7:15 PM, Nationalist said:

And this is probably mostly true. Hence trump's blizzard of changes. However...if the economy begins to turn before the midterms...all bets are off.

That is my point. Now are these slight downturns going to be permanent? No. They are not systemic or based on lower demand. Will the unemployment rate, CES Jobs, QCEW jobs, etc recover? Most likely. however, the modern American does not look beyond the moment. They read on April 21, 2025 that the unemployment rate is up and immediately they think the following, "This is the start of something worse". Also, they blame the President only. Now, when it goes back up in July 2025.. they conveniently forget their paranoia on April 21, 2025.

Deluge · March 13

3 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

That is my point. Now are these slight downturns going to be permanent? No. They are not systemic or based on lower demand. Will the unemployment rate, CES Jobs, QCEW jobs, etc recover? Most likely. however, the modern American does not look beyond the moment. They read on April 21, 2025 that the unemployment rate is up and immediately they think the following, "This is the start of something worse". Also, they blame the President only. Now, when it goes back up in July 2025.. they conveniently forget their paranoia on April 21, 2025.

That's what the media is pushing, but most Americans have learned to stop listening to those liars. If things feel better than they were before Trump took over, they aren't going to give a shit about the democrats' favorite stat, because they will know DOGE has been busy bouncing the pronoun users out of DC.

impartialobserver · March 13

1 minute ago, Deluge said:

That's what the media is pushing, but most Americans have learned to stop listening to those liars. If things feel better than they were before Trump took over, they aren't going to give a shit about the democrats' favorite stat, because they will know DOGE has been busy bouncing the pronoun users out of DC.

I hate to tell you but Conservatives pay attention to these metrics. They pay very close attention to them. The media knows that folks care about this and so cater the content to that. Folks have short memories.

Can you tell me where the lies are in this? If you find them.. can you give precise information (not feelings, opinions, or rhetoric) to counter it?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

Deluge · March 13

19 minutes ago, impartialobserver said:

I hate to tell you but Conservatives pay attention to these metrics. They pay very close attention to them. The media knows that folks care about this and so cater the content to that. Folks have short memories.

Can you tell me where the lies are in this? If you find them.. can you give precise information (not feelings, opinions, or rhetoric) to counter it?

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm

The lies come from fixating on unemployment. They do this because they know that when democrats are in power, all they have to do is balloon federal government hires enough to manipulate the numbers, and they think that'll shut enough voters up - it didn't this time, and it's part of the reason they lost.

impartialobserver · March 13

6 minutes ago, Deluge said:

The lies come from fixating on unemployment. They do this because they know that when democrats are in power, all they have to do is balloon federal government hires enough to manipulate the numbers, and they think that'll shut enough voters up - it didn't this time, and it's part of the reason they lost.

I hate to tell you again but there are 3 main econometric metrics that folks want every month.. every single month. The unemployment rate, CES jobs number, and consumer price index. Now every quarter, they want QCEW and GDP. Folks (on both sides) pay very close attention that unemployment rate.. whether you like it or not.

Care to guess how much total employment in the US is Federal? If you want to know.. start here
https://www.bls.gov/cew/data.htm. Click on one screen and I can tell you the rest if you are interested

Edited March 13 by impartialobserver

Deluge · March 13

1 minute ago, impartialobserver said:

I hate to tell you again but there are 3 main econometric metrics that folks want every month.. every single month. The unemployment rate, CES jobs number, and consumer price index. Now every quarter, they want QCEW and GDP. Folks (on both sides) pay very close attention that unemployment rate.. whether you like it or not.

Care to guess how much total employment in the US is Federal?

Dude, your entire hopes rest on unemployment figures - as if that's all Americans ever think about. lol

I'm telling you now, if Americans feel generally content about what Trump is doing, they aren't going to give a shit about your precious little unemployment spikes, if there are even spikes at all. You're not going to convince me otherwise, so the only thing to do now is wait and see.