Liberal Party Takes Lead in Polls

[SpankyMcFarland]

Here’s a Trumpy preoccupation:

Quote

One Conservative suggested the tension — not only between Teneycke and Byrne but also between the Ontario and federal Conservative leaders — amounts to a "civil war" within the Conservative movement.

Yet another source said the campaign has a "weird fixation" with relatively minor issues, like how the media is reporting Poilievre's rally crowd sizes. This Conservative said this should not be a concern for senior leaders like Byrne, given other issues they are grappling with.

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

1 hour ago, Gaétan said:

Mark Carney doesn't want to show his financial assets because he has things to hide, it wouldn't be surprising if most of his assets are in tax havens.

Tactically speaking, the problem with disclosure is that it leads to more demands for disclosure and on and on. In a better world, Carney would have sorted out all his thesis and money problems long before the campaign started. We live in strange times when a Tory leader is in part stoking resentment of successful people. I know he’s doing more than that - and there are legitimate issues here - but distrust of the so-called ‘elites’, people the right used to praise, is certainly one element in the MAGA playbook. 

[Barquentine]

Starting to look like PeePee needs some kind of Aha! moment in the debates or some earth shaking,

smoking gun reveal. Other than that, it's just getting worse each day for the Pcs. 

[CdnFox]

11 minutes ago, Barquentine said:

Starting to look like PeePee needs some kind of Aha! moment in the debates or some earth shaking,

smoking gun reveal. Other than that, it's just getting worse each day for the Pcs. 

There are no PCS. Glad to see you're still paying attention

And it's certainly not getting worse for the conservatives in general, in fact the latest polling has them above 40 again. It's rare to see them doing much better than that so it's not that they're getting clobbered.

The problem is that the NDP is down to about 7. And while the CPC stole a bunch of their support some time ago, all of the recent losses are going straight to the liberals.  

Kearney isn't really beating the CPC, he's murdering the hell out of the NDP and this is become a two horse race. 

The NDP voters that remained who are now going to the liberals are hate-filled bigoted ignorant people who will do anything including trash Canada in order to see the CPC fail and always will.

The real question is will they really show up to vote. If the polling keeps showing that the liberals may win then that probably will happen, if carney slips a bit then that probably won't. There's no doubt that trump coming out in favor of Carney will give carney a bit of a boost Because he looks like he's handling things (nothing's been handled and a sane person would ask why trump likes carney but...)    So we'll see what happens, 

But if carney wins we'll see more of the same and i think that as we've already experienced it will be a poorer and angrier nation moving forward. 

[Barquentine]

18 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

There are no PCS. Glad to see you're still paying attention

The NDP voters that remained who are now going to the liberals are hate-filled bigoted ignorant people who will do anything including trash Canada in order to see the CPC fail and always will.

Right. The Progressive-Conservative (forward-backward) party were a national party. The CPC are basically the Reform Party reborn - a regional party like the Bloc.

And that's some bitter frustration you've got against the NDP.

[Moonbox]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

By contrast, Poilievre and Byrne seem to have generated a fair bit of resentment in the party with their open contempt for the opinions of others and it’s coming home to roost now. 

I said it when he took control of the Conservatives, but Poilievre was pretty much the only guy who could lose the next election for the Conservatives.  If they win the election, it'll be in spite of him and because of the Liberals' shitty record.  If the Liberals win, it'll because of Carney, and in spite of the Liberal's shitty record.  Weird contrast.  

[SpankyMcFarland]

29 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

I said it when he took control of the Conservatives, but Poilievre was pretty much the only guy who could lose the next election for the Conservatives.  If they win the election, it'll be in spite of him and because of the Liberals' shitty record.  If the Liberals win, it'll because of Carney, and in spite of the Liberal's shitty record.  Weird contrast.  

I wouldn’t have thought that, probably because I place too much weight on retro skills like parliamentary debate. I still think he would have had an easy enough time in 2024 against Trudeau. However, with Trump looming over everything, a dependable, hard to dislike, PC-flavoured Tory of the O’Toole variety would be ahead IMO. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

Mulroney excepted, the federal Tories are Canada’s version of Mr. Buckley’s. They taste so bad we’ll only take them if they dilute the dose, as Harper did, or things are truly dire as they were at the beginning of 2025. Poilievre has got to sound more PC in both senses, more centrist on policy and more normal in style. We haven’t the strength for nauseating medicine right now when we’re facing an enemy at the gates. 

[CdnFox]

4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

And you’re basing that on what an avowed enemy of our country says? Dear me. 

You'd have to be 15 different kinds of stupid not to. Trump has been extremely clear. Carney is trump's guy. He expects carney to win the election and expects great things to happen for America and Canada after that. Meanwhile he doesn't like Poilievre.

You would have to be one of the more dishonest people on the planet to pretend that somehow this means that Kearney isn't his choice

4 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Are you the kind of fan who can’t criticize his own team when they are screwing up?

Are you the kind of loser who tries to distract from a statement that's been made by changing the subject because he doesn't like the truth?

Never mind, I think we can all see the answer

And while there are things to criticize about his campaign and I have in fact been critical where appropriate, quoting the CBC is a complete joke. At the best of times they're extremely biased against conservatives, and right now while the conservatives are threatening to defend them do you actually honestly expect them to say the truth?

I have spelled it out elsewhere. The latest neutral polls show that the conservatives are around 42% which is where they've been pretty much for a year.

They show the liberals are at more like 44% and the NDP are somewhere between 7 and 9%

In other words, it's not that the CPC is doing badly per se, it's that the NDP is doing insanely badly and the relatively small amount of people that were still with them when all of this started have now fled them to join Kearney in the hopes of defeating the CPC because they are basically hatred and bigotry driven people

That is going to present a problem for Poilievre because nothing he can do is going to change the perception of those people. All he can do is try and win back some of the soft liberal support. I think he has to address the whole trump issue a little bit more effectively, But it is going to be challenging because the mainstream media absolutely intends to torpedo him and trump is sucking all of the air out of the room.

If you thought that just having him stand up and shake his fist at trump was going to make any substantial change to his campaign you are quite wrong.

[eyeball]

5 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Are you the kind of fan who can’t criticize his own team when they are screwing up?

I think he's more like a team owner who knows he invested in a lemon but he still has to try and sell it.

[SpankyMcFarland]

56 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

You'd have to be 15 different kinds of stupid not to. Trump has been extremely clear. Carney is trump's guy. He expects carney to win the election and expects great things to happen for America and Canada after that. Meanwhile he doesn't like Poilievre.

You would have to be one of the more dishonest people on the planet to pretend that somehow this means that Kearney isn't his choice

Well, I don’t know anything about Kearney. 

 

56 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Are you the kind of loser who tries to distract from a statement that's been made by changing the subject because he doesn't like the truth?

Never mind, I think we can all see the answer

You know, I don’t think we can. It’s pretty clear that PP is disappointing a lot of people in his own camp. There will always be a few who are unhappy but most fair observers can see it’s far more than that. 

 

 

 

56 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

And while there are things to criticize about his campaign and I have in fact been critical where appropriate, quoting the CBC is a complete joke. At the best of times they're extremely biased against conservatives, and right now while the conservatives are threatening to defend them do you actually honestly expect them to say the truth?

I have spelled it out elsewhere. The latest neutral polls show that the conservatives are around 42% which is where they've been pretty much for a year.

They show the liberals are at more like 44% and the NDP are somewhere between 7 and 9%

In other words, it's not that the CPC is doing badly per se, it's that the NDP is doing insanely badly and the relatively small amount of people that were still with them when all of this started have now fled them to join Kearney in the hopes of defeating the CPC because they are basically hatred and bigotry driven people

That is going to present a problem for Poilievre because nothing he can do is going to change the perception of those people. All he can do is try and win back some of the soft liberal support. I think he has to address the whole trump issue a little bit more effectively, But it is going to be challenging because the mainstream media absolutely intends to torpedo him and trump is sucking all of the air out of the room.

If you thought that just having him stand up and shake his fist at trump was going to make any substantial change to his campaign you are quite wrong.

You know far better than I do that criticism of Poilievre’s campaign is not confined to people like me. It’s a pity you can’t admit that. With all the advantages he has he should be winning easily. 
 

 

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

It’s an open race and Poilievre has many advantages here as I think I have tried to point out. One of many: his support is more deeply committed and should turn out to vote in greater numbers. 

Here the lesson for any crazed fan: just because you support a team doesn’t mean you can’t see and suggest ‘opportunities for improvement ’. Denying the obvious failings on your side is a type of loyalty that isn’t useful. 
 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Barquentine said:

Right. The Progressive-Conservative (forward-backward) party were a national party. The CPC are basically the Reform Party reborn - a regional party like the Bloc.

 

I suppose someone that hit their head off in enough might think that

Quote

And that's some bitter frustration you've got against the NDP.

No frustration. Merely an observation. If the conservative party didn't exist they wouldn't be voting for the liberals. They are voting for the liberals out of hatred and bigotry.  It's a simple fact. 

[eyeball]

1 minute ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Here the lesson for any crazed fan: just because you support a team doesn’t mean you can’t see and suggest ‘opportunities for improvement ’. Denying the obvious failings on your side is a type of loyalty that isn’t useful.

By the very same token...not bringing forward and using your advantages is irresponsible leadership.

Poilievre is sitting on a climate change/carbon tax revelation that could not only secure his election but lead the entire world to a whole new more effective way of dealing with AGW.

But apparently he's subscribed to the sense no one cares about climate change anymore.

Like woke and DEI, climate change is another issue that's evaporated.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, Moonbox said:

I said it when he took control of the Conservatives, but Poilievre was pretty much the only guy who could lose the next election for the Conservatives.

No you didn't.  Go dig up that quote. 

Quote

  If they win the election, it'll be in spite of him and because of the Liberals' shitty record.  If the Liberals win, it'll because of Carney, and in spite of the Liberal's shitty record.  Weird contrast.  

If they win the election it will be because he had the skill to deal with trump and the liberal media machine that's promoting Harris as the next god emperor.  Oh, sorry i mean Carney of course  

And if the liberals win it'll be because of trump. I think everyone can see that. 

SO we'll see how it pans out. 

[CdnFox]

16 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Well, I don’t know anything about Kearney. 

Or anything else for that matter but it's never stopped you from having an opinon before  

My voice to text insists on calling him 'kearny' about half the time.   i usually correct it but sometimes i miss it.  If it's too much for your brain to figure out that i meant Carney based on the context i'll try harder to spell it out for you. in crayon.

Quote

You know, I don’t think we can. It’s pretty clear that PP is disappointing a lot of people in his own camp. There will always be a few who are unhappy but most fair observers can see it’s far more than that. 

We absolutely can. That is precisely what you did.

And once again you're attempting to change the subject. I don't think that poilievre is disappointing a lot of people. I think a lot of people are frustrated with the circumstances, and if he loses there's going to be criticisms and he's going to have to answer for that. He began to become complacent with what appeared to be an easy win and then all of a sudden trump happened and he wasn't ready for it.

However the CBC would absolutely love everyone to believe that there's huge infighting amongst the conservatives and that all hope is lost. Gee, I can't imagine why the CBC would have any reason to be prejudiced against the guy who's going to cancel them if he wins   

Quote

You know far better than I do that criticism of Poilievre’s campaign is not confined to people like me. It’s a pity you can’t admit that. With all the advantages he has he should be winning easily. 

It is pretty much confined to people like you. Nobody else would start spouting that kind of nonsense this early in the campaign, it is day five for god's sake.

This is a concerted effort to give a sense of hopelessness to the conservatives. There are obviously many who would like to see the conservatives lose including the CBC and Doug Ford. 

As I have said, there are legitimate criticisms and we will have to see how the campaign plays out. But only the granddaddy of all town fools would suggest that five days in everybody's giving up hope and is turning on each other with knives out. That is pure propaganda and you know that as well as I do.

We will see. Trump is an X Factor that it is extremely unusual and hard to quantify. It is driving this election in a way that you just never see in the past so it's hard to predict the future. But I do know that the latest polls have the conservatives moving up. Not down.
 

 

[500channelsurfer]

Why is Carney Trump's guy?

I don't think Trump is interested in a Captain Canada that is going to stand up and get concessions from the Unites States, as Trump perceives past trade deals to have been. Is it not more likely that Carney is Trump's guy because Trump believes that after the election, with a Carney win, Trump will be better able to control and extract from Canada?

[500channelsurfer]

8 hours ago, TreeBeard said:

Why should we trust your feelings about this?

Look at this riding:

https://338canada.com/24035e.htm

This riding had a bi-election in September and the Bloc won, and it was 2.1% points difference separating the Bloc from the 3rd place NDP, with the Liberals in the middle, a tossup:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr_2024c/59/table12E.html

Now the same 338canada riding profile says the Liberals are ahead by 30%. The swing away from the Bloc is not that big overall, and this riding has a stronger than normal NDP/leftist vote, even with the NDP falling sharply nationally. The methodology-results relationship therefore seems to suggest a Liberal overestimation.

Edited Sunday at 02:41 AM by 500channelsurfer

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, 500channelsurfer said:

Why is Carney Trump's guy?

I don't think Trump is interested in a Captain Canada that is going to stand up and get concessions from the Unites States, as Trump perceives past trade deals to have been. Is it not more likely that Carney is Trump's guy because Trump believes that after the election, with a Carney win, Trump will be better able to control and extract from Canada?

For sure.  Or just like obama Carney said "i'll give you want you want if you help me get through this election" 

I have no doubt in the slightest that it will not go well for us. We'll still wind up with tariffs and a worse trade deal and probably concessions on water and artic sovereignty as well.  And we'll have to commit to buying american military hardware and not deal with china for cars. 

Basically we'll be screwed and the liberals and the CBC will pitch it as they saved us. 

PP has to win this election. We're about to be sold out. 

[Moonbox]

19 hours ago, CdnFox said:

No you didn't.  Go dig up that quote. 

Here you go muppet, as requested: 

Once again, a quick little search is all it takes to make a clown out of you.  

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Moonbox said:

Here you go muppet, as requested: 

Once again, a quick little search is all it takes to make a clown out of you.  

LOL quick? It took you Days   And lets take a look:

Your claim now:  I said it when he took control of the Conservatives, but Poilievre was pretty much the only guy who could lose the next election for the Conservatives. 

Your claim back then:

Pierre is unelectable. If folks want Trudeau in for another term, he's the path for that.

You said absolutely nothing back then about him being the "only guy who could lose the next election" You didn't think it was possible for him to be elected WHEN FACING TRUDEAU, and of course that has proven to be wrong.  He's still got a good chance of winning now, and trudeau will NOT be elected or running. 

So trudeau got driven out and now it's a neck and neck race with carney, and you said nothing about him being the "only guy who could lose a race   

But i love that you took the time to try to find something anywhere that was sort of close so you didn't look so stupid  

So we agree, you did NOT say he was the only person who could lose the race for the cpc. At all.  You said he was unelectable and that trudeau would win, both of which has tuned out to be false. 

Thanks for taking the time to prove me right tho  AHAAHAAHAHAHAA once again i have to do nothing but sit back and let you prove YOURSELF wrong  

[BeaverFever]

Well I see the conservatives have their “f-ck Carney” bumper stickers out already, that oughta turn things around for them. 

So I guess the public displays of vulgarity and vileness weren’t just a one-time extraordinary exception due to Trudeau after all, “f-ck (insert liberal name)” is now a fixture of conservative culture.  
 

I have 2 young kids they are old enough to read these things and ask questions.  I have to explain that just because you disagree with someones ideas it’s no excuse to be so vulgar and uncivil but some adults aren’t able to behave like adults. 

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, BeaverFever said:

Well I see the conservatives have their “f-ck Carney” bumper stickers out already, that oughta turn things around for them. 

So I guess the public displays of vulgarity and vileness weren’t just a one-time extraordinary exception due to Trudeau after all, “f-ck (insert liberal name)” is now a fixture of conservative culture.  
 

I have 2 young kids they are old enough to read these things and ask questions.  I have to explain that just because you disagree with someones ideas it’s no excuse to be so vulgar and uncivil but some adults aren’t able to behave like adults. 

First thing carney did was insult and lie about pp and call him a maga worshipper. 

Explain to your kids that if they want a more civil discourse maybe they should stop being a complete two faced hypocritical biatch like their father and not throw the first stone. 

[BeaverFever]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

First thing carney did was insult and lie about pp and call him a maga worshipper. 

Explain to your kids that if they want a more civil discourse maybe they should stop being a complete two faced hypocritical biatch like their father and not throw the first stone. 

First of all Danielle Smith confirms what we all knew, PP “is very much in sync ” with Trump policies and PP totally ripped off Trump’s “America first” slogan  He also likes trump-style populist politics, indulges conspiracy theories, insults and name calling 

Second of all even if it was a lie as you said thats just standard fare political sparring not in any way justifying or similar to your vulgar bumper sticker 

[Moonbox]

4 hours ago, CdnFox said:

LOL quick? It took you Days  

So your assumption is that I sat at my computer for "days" finding the quote you said that didn't exist, rather than that like most functioning adults, I don't spend my whole day arguing with people on the internet?  

Nobody does a better job making you look like a deadbeat than you yourself do here.  WELL DONE!   🤣