24 Days until the election what is your prediction

[Fluffypants]

I doubt very much there is going to be much more movement from now until then. So what is your predictions who wins, popular vote percentage, electoral votes.

Lets see who gets closest. Please just leave your prediction and don't comment on others predictions until after the votes are counted we have a winner.

I think they are under polling Trump again so considering the polls leading up to the election in 2016 and 2020 which looked like Democrat landslides and were decidedly not. In 2016 Trump won and 2020 the race was much tighter than the polls suggested, Biden had a 10 pt lead nationally in the polls.

Winner: Donald Trump

Popular Vote: Trump by 2 points

Electoral College Count: Trump 302 Harris 236

 

 

 

Edited October 11, 2024 by Fluffypants

[CdnFox]

The polls are all within the margin of error, so they're not much help in predicting.

But I've said since the beginning that without some sort of defining event the longer this drags on the more the advantage is to trump. What I've seen still leads me to believe that, and some of the comments that have been made by Kamala and her team along with some of her campaign choices indicate strongly to me that her internal polling is suggesting that she's in trouble.

With the caveat that a lot can happen in the remaining time and that's 24 hours is a long time in politics, I think trump is going to take enough of the swing states to win the election. I think his momentum is going to grow in the last month and hers will begin to dwindle a bit and it will be enough to push him over the top.

But it's still very close, like razor close. But my tea leaves and my magic 8-Ball suggest that it's about a 65% chance that trump will take it barring a major event

Edited October 12, 2024 by CdnFox

[gatomontes99]

Harris is desperate or she wouldn't have Obama out shaming black men. Trump 300+ EC

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Harris is desperate or she wouldn't have Obama out shaming black men. Trump 300+ EC

She would also be staying away from the talk show circuit. She also wouldn't be asking for another debate.

It seems fairly obvious to me that she is not happy with where she's at in the polls. She slipped a bit again today in the swing states, and while it's too soon to be calling it much of a trend considering it's still within the margin of error it might be the beginning of one. And she's already a little underwater there to begin with so if any significant sliding happens it becomes impossible for her to win.

You couldn't say that trump had it in the bag. In fact you couldn't say he had it in the cart and was quickly approaching the checkout. But at this point in time the advantage certainly does seem to be his and if she starts to slip it could be all over.

Plus my gut tells me she's going to have one hell of a time getting the turnout she wants. Most people didn't know her name a month and a half ago. One of the reasons for the primaries is to get everybody educated on the candidates and get everybody excited about the candidate who wins and get them motivated to put that person in office. Even with all of that it gets hard to get good turnout in the states.

She's really a no name at this point and all people have seen of her is giggling and gaffes. and that's not a lot to motivate people.  Some people hate trump and will get out and vote for an overripe avocado just to spite him but they aren't as many as some people think.  Many will just not vote and will sit out the election until the dems put forward a candidate worth voting for.  ANd that's death to her. 

[Hodad]

You guys are not making predictions, you're making wishes. There is no data to support these fantasies. Trump would trade poll numbers with her in a heartbeat. 

She'll almost certainly win the popular vote and has an easier path to a close EC victory.

Doesn't mean it's not a close race or that Trump can't win, but there's no reason to expect it. 

[robosmith]

5 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

Harris is desperate or she wouldn't have Obama out shaming black men. Trump 300+ EC

Says who? Your fantasies.

[West]

Joe is gonna knife Kamala so hard in the back on his way out the door and it'll be hilarious

44 minutes ago, Hodad said:

You guys are not making predictions, you're making wishes. There is no data to support these fantasies. Trump would trade poll numbers with her in a heartbeat. 

She'll almost certainly win the popular vote and has an easier path to a close EC victory.

Doesn't mean it's not a close race or that Trump can't win, but there's no reason to expect it. 

The real clear average has Donnie over 300 in the electoral college. 

[CdnFox]

49 minutes ago, West said:

Joe is gonna knife Kamala so hard in the back on his way out the door and it'll be hilarious

The real clear average has Donnie over 300 in the electoral college. 

More importantly there's a small lead for the Trumpinator opening up in the swing states.  It's very small, but it's growing and the over all trend line does not look good for Harris.  Whomever has momentum going into the last week or so of the election will probably win it, and Donners looks like he's right on the cusp of picking up steam. 

As i said back in august, Harris REALLY needed to come out of the convention with a 6 point lead over don nationally and about a 3 point lead in the battleground states.  She needed that because her abilities just weren't up to gaining ground over time and she needed a little room above to coast. 

And she just didn't get that. And she just hasn't gained ground since. 

The debate didn't really help her in the polls, at best it stopped her sinking against donald for a short time and it looks like she's starting to slide again and she's got no room to lose even an inch.  

And trump will have an easier time getting out his vote. 

I'd say she has two weeks to do something impressive and stop the drop.  After that it'll take a hell of an event to reverse the sink and pick up positive momentum. Which probably means we'll see some desperation moves in the near future

[Hodad]

51 minutes ago, West said:

Joe is gonna knife Kamala so hard in the back on his way out the door and it'll be hilarious

The real clear average has Donnie over 300 in the electoral college. 

No, it doesn't. And RCP includes polls they really shouldn't (Rasmussen) and it ends up skewing red. That's why they got fooled by the "red wave" at midterms.

 

[Nationalist]

5 hours ago, West said:

Joe is gonna knife Kamala so hard in the back on his way out the door and it'll be hilarious

The real clear average has Donnie over 300 in the electoral college. 

Ya I kind of expect Brandon to dump on Kamala at the last possible moment as well. He hates Kamala, and Dr. Jill really hates her.

[gatomontes99]

6 hours ago, Hodad said:

You guys are not making predictions, you're making wishes. There is no data to support these fantasies. Trump would trade poll numbers with her in a heartbeat. 

She'll almost certainly win the popular vote and has an easier path to a close EC victory.

Doesn't mean it's not a close race or that Trump can't win, but there's no reason to expect it. 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Data^^^

[gatomontes99]

6 hours ago, robosmith said:

Says who? Your fantasies.

Lmao.. man, you guys love to mimic.

[West]

5 hours ago, CdnFox said:

More importantly there's a small lead for the Trumpinator opening up in the swing states.  It's very small, but it's growing and the over all trend line does not look good for Harris.  Whomever has momentum going into the last week or so of the election will probably win it, and Donners looks like he's right on the cusp of picking up steam. 

As i said back in august, Harris REALLY needed to come out of the convention with a 6 point lead over don nationally and about a 3 point lead in the battleground states.  She needed that because her abilities just weren't up to gaining ground over time and she needed a little room above to coast. 

And she just didn't get that. And she just hasn't gained ground since. 

The debate didn't really help her in the polls, at best it stopped her sinking against donald for a short time and it looks like she's starting to slide again and she's got no room to lose even an inch.  

And trump will have an easier time getting out his vote. 

I'd say she has two weeks to do something impressive and stop the drop.  After that it'll take a hell of an event to reverse the sink and pick up positive momentum. Which probably means we'll see some desperation moves in the near future

I'm really hoping the democrats purge their party of Marxist radicals like Harris, Obama, AOC and Corey Booker and make a return to reason and sanity. 

 

Say what you want about Bill Clinton. At least he was centrist. And I'd cheat too if I were married to that crazy lady Hillary too 

[Fluffypants]

Jesus you people cannot follow simple instructions can you? I don't care about your feelings about anothers predictions and you couldn't help yourselves.

Your prediction may or may not be based in reality. Quickly this went from predictions to "your predictions are stupid" soon it will devolve into name calling and be complete off topic that is why I was trying to keep it in one lane. Make your predictions and thats it, don't worry about everyone else's prediction and we will see who was right or close to right in the end,

I was hoping to have a clean topic but that is impossible. i have seen toddlers with more maturity. I could go into a friggin daycare and ask a bunch of kids who their favorite superhero is and why and they would just give me their answer and not start just yelling out your superhero is stupid.

[Hodad]

3 hours ago, gatomontes99 said:

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

Data^^^

Setting the map to "no toss ups" = fantasy. Particularly in RCP. 

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, West said:

I'm really hoping the democrats purge their party of Marxist radicals like Harris, Obama, AOC and Corey Booker and make a return to reason and sanity. 

Know how that works though. In Canada when one of our parties gets to that point, and many have, we basically destroy the party. Something similar will start up or suddenly flare to life and even if it's got a lot of the same people it's a different party with a different structure and without the 'Old guard" holding key positions, so it's very much a fresh start.  The CPC had  a lot of the old pc and reform/alliance people but it was totally different than both parties. 

But.... there's no such thing as destroying the democrat party. it's "the other party' and that's not going to change. And the structure has been there forever and the key players are not likely to give up and go do something else, so i don't even know how they'd manage it.

Once in a blue moon you may get someone like trump who completely shakes up the party from the ground up for an extended period but that's rare. 

[Deluge]

18 hours ago, Fluffypants said:

I doubt very much there is going to be much more movement from now until then. So what is your predictions who wins, popular vote percentage, electoral votes.

Lets see who gets closest. Please just leave your prediction and don't comment on others predictions until after the votes are counted we have a winner.

I think they are under polling Trump again so considering the polls leading up to the election in 2016 and 2020 which looked like Democrat landslides and were decidedly not. In 2016 Trump won and 2020 the race was much tighter than the polls suggested, Biden had a 10 pt lead nationally in the polls.

Winner: Donald Trump

Popular Vote: Trump by 2 points

Electoral College Count: Trump 302 Harris 236

Trump takes it. Too many Americans see what the democrats are trying to foist on them. The hope is that it'll be a landslide. 

[CdnFox]

6 minutes ago, Deluge said:

Trump takes it. Too many Americans see what the democrats are trying to foist on them. The hope is that it'll be a landslide. 

If the slide continues even a little bit for the next week I think that they're going to start to get desperate. That's often when things get interesting. We've seen some pretty crazy stuff come out of a desperate campaign before. 

Obama begging the 'brothers'  to get on board is an example, but i think it gets worse from here. We'll see. 

[gatomontes99]

1 hour ago, Hodad said:

Setting the map to "no toss ups" = fantasy. Particularly in RCP. 

Oh I know. But it is your fantasy. Trump out performs the polls. That map is your best case scenario.

[CdnFox]

45 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Oh I know. But it is your fantasy. Trump out performs the polls. That map is your best case scenario.

Truth is trump's trending stronger in those states so the map probably is relatively accurate.  We'll see.