Kamala Harris Surges Past Trump in Latest Polls

[CdnFox]

31 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said:

Actually, she became the Presidential nominee 11 days ago...

 

LOL - dude it takes a year or so to properly prepare.  You interview and hire your team, you come up with various policies and attacks and then you have to cost them and test them and do focus groups and surveys on them, and then you have to prepare your media and your ads and so on and so on. 

11 days is NOTHING.  She's having to build a campaign from scratch with NO time. While it's going on !  That's not easy. 

Quote

That's very strange. I am looking at the illustration, and to me, it appears Harris is widening the gap, as of today. Am I missing something?

Presumably. As i said if you look at the bottom it shows she peaked on the 11th and fell from there relative to trump. You can go to the site and look at the data, may be more clear.  Right now there's a 1 percent spread.  At it's peak it was 1.2 i believe. 

Her next chance at a big bump is the convention - 3 days of what i assume will be Harris-mania and Harris-pollusa making her look like the second coming and promoting the hell out her, so she SHOULD get a bump.  But she needs it to be a very big bump, and i'm not sure she's going to get it. 

[NAME REMOVED]

17 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

538 had Harris +1.6 11 days ago and +3 now.

That's what I ahve been reading too. These MAGA clowns would have us believe that Harris is falling flat on her face.

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, DUI_Offender said:

That's what I ahve been reading too. These MAGA clowns would have us believe that Harris is falling flat on her face.

And like i said, two others don't and at least one of them is a more reliable and credible site. Their Weighting regularly seems to produce more accurate results. 

You're starting to sound frantic and desperate. The numbers are all there. As best as we can tell given that ALL the numbers are within the margin of error, she's stopped gaining over trump and is holding a small lead overall but not enough in the battleground states to win. By a hair. 

She'll either get the bump she needs next week or she's going to be in trouble. 

[Reg Volk]

Just now, CdnFox said:

And like i said, two others don't and at least one of them is a more reliable and credible site. Their Weighting regularly seems to produce more accurate results. 

You're starting to sound frantic and desperate. The numbers are all there. As best as we can tell given that ALL the numbers are within the margin of error, she's stopped gaining over trump and is holding a small lead overall but not enough in the battleground states to win. By a hair. 

She'll either get the bump she needs next week or she's going to be in trouble. 

These Dem commie clowns just aren't getting it. They are being played.

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Reg Volk said:

These Dem commie clowns just aren't getting it. They are being played.

Well the problem is even if you accept the 'play' as being true, it's not enough. 3 points barely breaks the margin. And she's just not going to be in a great spot to win voters hearts and minds as the campaign drags on. 

She really needs to be about 6 or 7 points ahead and preferably at least 2 in each of the battlefields.  She will likely lose ground between sep 5 and nov 5 so she needs some glide room. We'll see if she gets it.  

 

[Rebound]

3 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Well the problem is even if you accept the 'play' as being true, it's not enough. 3 points barely breaks the margin. And she's just not going to be in a great spot to win voters hearts and minds as the campaign drags on. 

She really needs to be about 6 or 7 points ahead and preferably at least 2 in each of the battlefields.  She will likely lose ground between sep 5 and nov 5 so she needs some glide room. We'll see if she gets it.  

 

[User]

4 hours ago, DUI_Offender said:

That's what I ahve been reading too. These MAGA clowns would have us believe that Harris is falling flat on her face.

No, hard to fall flat on her face when she is hiding from any adversarial questions... well, any journalism at all and is not going off teleprompter to any large degree. 

 

[Boges]

13 hours ago, CdnFox said:

Well the problem is even if you accept the 'play' as being true, it's not enough. 3 points barely breaks the margin. And she's just not going to be in a great spot to win voters hearts and minds as the campaign drags on. 

She really needs to be about 6 or 7 points ahead and preferably at least 2 in each of the battlefields.  She will likely lose ground between sep 5 and nov 5 so she needs some glide room. We'll see if she gets it.  

At least you concede the EC system heavily favours the GOP. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

The newest national poll had Harris up by 6. But at least Trump has Florida locked up. 😉

Edited August 16, 2024 by Boges

[User]

19 minutes ago, Boges said:

At least you concede the EC system heavily favours the GOP. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

The newest national poll had Harris up by 6. But at least Trump has Florida locked up. 😉

This is like complaining about how Chess favors intellectuals more than Checkers. 

 

[Boges]

2 minutes ago, User said:

This is like complaining about how Chess favors intellectuals more than Checkers. 

Yes it's intellectual that states with less than a million people get 3 EC votes no matter what. 

[User]

Just now, Boges said:

Yes it's intellectual that states with less than a million people get 3 EC votes no matter what. 

Are you not aware of the history of the United States or the writings explaining these things?

 

[Boges]

9 minutes ago, User said:

Are you not aware of the history of the United States or the writings explaining these things?

Sure. It's stupid AF though. All about keeping the majority from ruling over the minority, blah blah blah. 

I would be fine with it, if it wasn't winner-take-all. Maine and Nebraska correctly assign EC votes to the districts they represent. I think that would be a better system. More inline with Canada and the UK's FPTP. 

It's insane that all EC votes go to the winner of a state by the thinnest of margins. This works both ways. The Dems can win Georgia by 11,000 votes and get the entire state's EC votes. But the GOP can also get Texas or North Carolina with large swaths of Democratic voters. 

[User]

9 minutes ago, Boges said:

Sure. It's stupid AF though. All about keeping the majority from ruling over the minority, blah blah blah. 

No, it is a very smart balance of powers. It keeps a balance between the Federal Government and State Governments. 

We are the UNITED STATES of America. The President doesn't just represent a direct popular vote because of this.

The only reason folks on the left hate it is because, boo hoo, Clinton and Gore did not win it but did win the popular vote. 

 

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

At least you concede the EC system heavily favours the GOP. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

The newest national poll had Harris up by 6. But at least Trump has Florida locked up. 😉

LOL - why must you lie to prop up your points?  If you have to tell whoppers to support them then maybe your points aren't so good  

I 'conceded" nothing of the sort. The electoral college doesn't "Heavily favour" anyone. It exists to ensure a level of geographic fairness in the democratic process to prevent the tyranny of the majority. It does that regardless of party. 

Our riding sysetm in Canada has  a similar effect.  I would remind you that Justin trudeau did NOT win the popular vote in either of the last two elections but won the largest number of seats. Most democratic systems around the world have that kind of element baked in and for good reason. 

SO no. I certainly did not say that the EC system favours ANY political party , nor would i because that's not true. 

1 hour ago, Boges said:

The newest national poll had Harris up by 6. But at least Trump has Florida locked up.

The best polling aggregator in the country shows harris up by 1. 

2024 General Election: Trump vs. Harris Polls | RealClearPolling

ANother well respected and leading aggregator agrees and shows trump with the likely win if the election were held today

270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map

So. 

Cherry picking polls that make you feel better might .... well.... make you feel better.  But they're not reality. 

Given the margins of error it would be reasonable to say that they're about tied in practical terms. Going into september she needs to be much higher than that or the race will become very difficult for her. 

 

Edited August 16, 2024 by CdnFox

[impartialobserver]

mathematically speaking.. the EC does give certain low population marginally more influence than what their share of the total population would typically give. Marginal is the operative word. Lets use Wyoming as an example.. they are going for Trump and so will get 3 of 538. That comes to .55% of the total electoral votes. If we based this on population alone then they would account for .1% of the population  (581K / 333.3 million). .55% is still pretty small and not going to win/lose the election by itself. Other states that have this dynamic are North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota. 

[Reg Volk]

 

[impartialobserver]

Its almost like folks tie their own personal worth/happiness to who wins a certain race. Trump wins (assume I am conservative) then that validates me in some strange way. Or the opposite if Harris wins. Regardless of who wins.. I am the same person. Hence why life does not change much. 

Edited August 16, 2024 by impartialobserver

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

mathematically speaking.. the EC does give certain low population marginally more influence than what their share of the total population would typically give. Marginal is the operative word. Lets use Wyoming as an example.. they are going for Trump and so will get 3 of 538. That comes to .55% of the total electoral votes. If we based this on population alone then they would account for .1% of the population  (581K / 333.3 million). .55% is still pretty small and not going to win/lose the election by itself. Other states that have this dynamic are North Dakota, Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota. 

Well the point is the system benefits Wyoming (marginally) but not any political party. 

IF 20 years from now Wyoming leans left then the dems will be the recipients, but at the end of the day it's Wyoming and not any particular party that enjoys the benefit. 

[Hodad]

18 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Its almost like folks tie their own personal worth/happiness to who wins a certain race. Trump wins (assume I am conservative) then that validates me in some strange way. Or the opposite if Harris wins. Regardless of who wins.. I am the same person. Hence why life does not change much. 

I don't know your reality. Maybe you really won't be affected by the outcome of the presidential race, but you must realize that many people will be affected in profound and meaningful ways. 

The last time Trump was elected he nominated 3 Supreme Court justices hand picked by the Federalist Society to overturn Roe. Now half of the nation's reproductive rights are in jeopardy and in red states already lost. There are pregnant people suffering and dying because their doctors cannot intervene for fear of going to prison. 

His myriad abuses of power and outright criminality might not have affected you directly, but they certainly had a terribly corrosive effect on our government and society, undermining faith in the function of many important institutions and pushing social cohesion to the brink 

And while we used to take democracy for granted--the birthright of every American--it seems now that we need to recognize that it is fragile and just be protected. Trump tried to take that from all of us. 

There's a lot more on the line this election than marginal tax rates and foreign policy. 

Edited August 17, 2024 by Hodad

[robosmith]

On 8/15/2024 at 3:25 PM, Reg Volk said:

And let's just say that Dem cultists accusing anyone else of cheating is high comedy, and the best example of infinite hypocrisy you can provide. This shit party spent the entire last three years lying to the American people hiding the fact that their candidate was gibbled and had a cooked brain.

The Dems are disgusting cheating liars. The scum of the US political process. 

Trump is a CONMAN and you've been thoroughly CONNED. LMAO

[robosmith]

On 8/15/2024 at 4:19 PM, Rebound said:

But Biden is in command of the government and the military.  So there will be no forceful overthrow, and we’ll have plenty of National Guard on January 6, 2025. 

But right now, the RepubliCONS are stocking many county election official positions with election deniers that PLAN ON refusing to certify any vote total that Trump doesn't win. That is going to be a huge legal fight.

On 8/15/2024 at 4:21 PM, Nationalist said:

Because he didn't?

Neither did i.

I didn't either, but I did work at the McDonald's of electronics: Radio Shack.

[robosmith]

22 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Its almost like folks tie their own personal worth/happiness to who wins a certain race. Trump wins (assume I am conservative) then that validates me in some strange way. Or the opposite if Harris wins. Regardless of who wins.. I am the same person. Hence why life does not change much. 

But many peoples' lives can change dramatically. Esp those with young children or women who get pregnant.

Interesting though that you limit your concern/evaluation ONLY to factors which directly affect you. Very Trumpian.

Maybe you daughters (if any) could clue you into their lives.

[CdnFox]

8 hours ago, robosmith said:

But many peoples' lives can change dramatically. Esp those with young children or women who get pregnant.

Interesting though that you limit your concern/evaluation ONLY to factors which directly affect you. Very Trumpian.

Maybe you daughters (if any) could clue you into their lives.

Why? Biden has been in power since before and after the SCOTUS decision and did nothing. So obvoiusly whether trump or kamala is in power makes no difference, she's not doing anything now when she's already in power 

[impartialobserver]

On 8/17/2024 at 7:46 AM, Hodad said:

I don't know your reality. Maybe you really won't be affected by the outcome of the presidential race, but you must realize that many people will be affected in profound and meaningful ways. 

The last time Trump was elected he nominated 3 Supreme Court justices hand picked by the Federalist Society to overturn Roe. Now half of the nation's reproductive rights are in jeopardy and in red states already lost. There are pregnant people suffering and dying because their doctors cannot intervene for fear of going to prison. 

His myriad abuses of power and outright criminality might not have affected you directly, but they certainly had a terribly corrosive effect on our government and society, undermining faith in the function of many important institutions and pushing social cohesion to the brink 

And while we used to take democracy for granted--the birthright of every American--it seems now that we need to recognize that it is fragile and just be protected. Trump tried to take that from all of us. 

There's a lot more on the line this election than marginal tax rates and foreign policy. 

Its more like this. Person xyz is Conservative living in Idaho. They support Republican candidate x and lets just say that they lose. They view it as a reflection on their way of being. A republican candidate losing supposedly is a sign that their Conservative ways are under attack. Also, it diminishes them. Their candidate lost and so no bragging or front running. its like when your college football team loses.. supposedly it says something about you that you support team xyz and them losing reflects poorly on you. 

Edited August 19, 2024 by impartialobserver

[Rebound]

3 hours ago, impartialobserver said:

Its more like this. Person xyz is Conservative living in Idaho. They support Republican candidate x and lets just say that they lose. They view it as a reflection on their way of being. A republican candidate losing supposedly is a sign that their Conservative ways are under attack. Also, it diminishes them. Their candidate lost and so no bragging or front running. its like when your college football team loses.. supposedly it says something about you that you support team xyz and them losing reflects poorly on you. 

Well tough shlt. “My candidate lost.”  Boo Hoo. 
I voted Democrat in 1984, and 1988. It wasn’t until 1992 that a President I voted for won. That’s how it goes.  R’s win sometimes and D’s win sometimes. 
 

But if you treat your vote like it’s a football team, you’re not making a wise decision. 

Edited August 19, 2024 by Rebound