Trudeau Liberals face ruin in upcoming byelections

[CdnFox]

Trudeau Liberals face ruin in upcoming byelections | National Post

If they lose Quebec riding, it could spell disaster for the future of the party

Liberals are gearing up for another pair of byelections, in the Quebec riding of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun and the Manitoba riding of Elmwood—Transcona. It's  A three way race in quebec between the libs the dips and the bloc, and it's conservatives vs ndp in manitoba

If the libs do not win quebec - this is going to be seen as a massive massive panic situation inside the party.  But they're about tied with the other two right now and they just parachuted in a candidate which has made the locals a little pissed off.  They won that riding by 20 points last time, even if they win with a squeaker it's gong to be horrible. 

The manitoba riding is ndp and has been for ever but the conservatives have a chance and they're running it as  a 'mini carbon tax referendum',  and if they take it from the ndp it's going to show the CPC is stronger than ever and the carbon tax is an absolute albatross. 

If they lose quebec it will be a massive battle to get trudeau out, and i suspect he'd be gone by January which is far too late for them to pick a new leader and get up to speed for the next election, they could totally kim campbell it. 

If the cpc wins manitoba it's going to send shockwaves to the libs but also rattle the hell out of the ndp. Losing a generational seat to the cpc would not bode well for them. 

[500channelsurfer]

For the Quebec riding, recent federal polls in Quebec have been trending toward the Bloc.

The most recent two elections and byelections, inclusively, however, in that riding and the one next to it, have been Liberal defeats to the more leftist party, albeit at the provincial level:

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/by-election-results/2023-03-13/326/

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/300/

The Quebec Liberal party has been perhaps more weakened than the federal Liberal Party at the time of these elections. But the federal NDP is also not exactly at a strong point in its support. Also, votes for QS are not guaranteed votes for the federal NDP even though those two parties share a significant portion of their voters. Since part of the QS platform is pro-sovereignty, easily some QS voters might vote Bloc instead of NDP.

It is rare for Anglophones in Quebec to switch their Liberal votes to another party. Even in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec, most federal ridings where there is a high percentage of Anglophones remained Liberal while most other Quebec ridings voted NDP. Since this riding is not nearly as Anglophone as reliably Liberal high-Anglo Quebec ridings, and the riding did vote NDP in 2011, it is not a Liberal stronghold. 

In the last Federal Election, the Liberals had a commanding lead, about twice that of the NDP and Bloc Québecois:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/53/11707e.html

While Liberal vote losses across Canada currently tend to go Conservative, this riding has a historically low support for Conservatives. Toronto—St. Paul's was a narrow Conservative victory.

Due to the Liberal and NDP candidates being city councilors representing different municipal divisions of the same federal riding, while overall trends are toward the Bloc, this riding remains a 3-way coin-toss, and the margin of victory will be narrow.

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, 500channelsurfer said:

For the Quebec riding, recent federal polls in Quebec have been trending toward the Bloc.

The most recent two elections and byelections, inclusively, however, in that riding and the one next to it, have been Liberal defeats to the more leftist party, albeit at the provincial level:

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/by-election-results/2023-03-13/326/

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/300/

The Quebec Liberal party has been perhaps more weakened than the federal Liberal Party at the time of these elections. But the federal NDP is also not exactly at a strong point in its support. Also, votes for QS are not guaranteed votes for the federal NDP even though those two parties share a significant portion of their voters. Since part of the QS platform is pro-sovereignty, easily some QS voters might vote Bloc instead of NDP.

It is rare for Anglophones in Quebec to switch their Liberal votes to another party. Even in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec, most federal ridings where there is a high percentage of Anglophones remained Liberal while most other Quebec ridings voted NDP. Since this riding is not nearly as Anglophone as reliably Liberal high-Anglo Quebec ridings, and the riding did vote NDP in 2011, it is not a Liberal stronghold. 

In the last Federal Election, the Liberals had a commanding lead, about twice that of the NDP and Bloc Québecois:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/53/11707e.html

While Liberal vote losses across Canada currently tend to go Conservative, this riding has a historically low support for Conservatives. Toronto—St. Paul's was a narrow Conservative victory.

Due to the Liberal and NDP candidates being city councilors representing different municipal divisions of the same federal riding, while overall trends are toward the Bloc, this riding remains a 3-way coin-toss, and the margin of victory will be narrow.

All good points. The end of the day though if the liberals cannot win this the caucus is going to be extremely upset. There's almost no chance to see PC will win, if they lose it will be to the block but that will still be a major defeat for them in the eyes of their party. And haven't helped them if the CPC is even remotely competitive

And in  Manitoba even though there's no chance the liberals are likely to win and it is normally an NDP riding, if the conservatives take it away it will be seen again as a slap in the face of the liberal NDP coalition.

These losses would put tremendous additional pressure on Justin to step down. But we are basically past the point of no return as far as electing another liberal leader. There just isn't enough time to do a proper leadership race and for that person to have enough time to get their act together before the next election. They would likely be slaughtered

[August1991]

I reckon that the NPD will win the Manitoba riding.

The Verdun riding? It is a toss-up: 30/30/30/10.

Liberal/NDP/BQ/Conservative. Rather than who wins, look at the numbers.

I predict BQ.

====

Imagine those Americans and their ballot.

[August1991]

Justin Trudeau, with our simple ballot, is well placed to win a future federal election.

[CdnFox]

On 8/4/2024 at 5:09 PM, 500channelsurfer said:

For the Quebec riding, recent federal polls in Quebec have been trending toward the Bloc.

The most recent two elections and byelections, inclusively, however, in that riding and the one next to it, have been Liberal defeats to the more leftist party, albeit at the provincial level:

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/by-election-results/2023-03-13/326/

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/300/

The Quebec Liberal party has been perhaps more weakened than the federal Liberal Party at the time of these elections. But the federal NDP is also not exactly at a strong point in its support. Also, votes for QS are not guaranteed votes for the federal NDP even though those two parties share a significant portion of their voters. Since part of the QS platform is pro-sovereignty, easily some QS voters might vote Bloc instead of NDP.

It is rare for Anglophones in Quebec to switch their Liberal votes to another party. Even in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec, most federal ridings where there is a high percentage of Anglophones remained Liberal while most other Quebec ridings voted NDP. Since this riding is not nearly as Anglophone as reliably Liberal high-Anglo Quebec ridings, and the riding did vote NDP in 2011, it is not a Liberal stronghold. 

In the last Federal Election, the Liberals had a commanding lead, about twice that of the NDP and Bloc Québecois:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/53/11707e.html

While Liberal vote losses across Canada currently tend to go Conservative, this riding has a historically low support for Conservatives. Toronto—St. Paul's was a narrow Conservative victory.

Due to the Liberal and NDP candidates being city councilors representing different municipal divisions of the same federal riding, while overall trends are toward the Bloc, this riding remains a 3-way coin-toss, and the margin of victory will be narrow.

oh valid but of course by-elections are kind of weird things. Voter turnout tends to play a much larger role than traditionally and it often becomes a protest vote for or against the government because nothing that happens will actually change anything.

I'm suspecting a block victory but we will see. Trudeau may still eke it out. I don't think he's confident tho, he's already insisting he's not leaving if there's a loss and that's not what you do when you think you're going win. 

Edited September 16, 2024 by CdnFox

[August1991]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

... by-elections are kind of weird things.

...Trudeau may still eke it out.

By-elections are a way to express an opinion.

Agreed. In 2025, Trudeau Jnr can still win - even a majority.

[CdnFox]

7 hours ago, August1991 said:

By-elections are a way to express an opinion.

 

Exactly, because there's no chance of the gov't changing the public feels more free to "send a message" rather than worry about who they want to lead the country.

Quote

Agreed. In 2025, Trudeau Jnr can still win - even a majority.

No, you'd have to be 7 different kinds of stupid to think that.  Unless you mean that technically anything is possible in the universe, like if PP and the rest of the conservatives were hit by a meteor and killed and all the ndp decided to quit politics and start a commune or something.  Then it's possible  

 

[Nefarious Banana]

24 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

 

 . . .you'd have to be 7 different kinds of stupid to think that.  Unless you mean that technically anything is possible in the universe, like if PP and the rest of the conservatives were hit by a meteor and killed and all the ndp decided to quit politics and start a commune or something.  Then it's possible  

 

Where's our resident 'little guy' herbie?  Hiding behind the couch, under the bed?  His appalling Trudeau govt. is in free-fall.  

[CdnFox]

28 minutes ago, Nefarious Banana said:

Where's our resident 'little guy' herbie?  Hiding behind the couch, under the bed?  His appalling Trudeau govt. is in free-fall.  

He's still moping about the BC NDP possibly losing the election here in the province. they kind of had it locked up but then suddenly the Conservative party who hasn't won a seat in about 60 years and most people didn't even know about suddenly took off and is now poised to have a good chance of winning and he's a little salty about it. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The fortunes of parties rise and fall. Most will disappear. This is a good thing. 

[CdnFox]

Just now, SpankyMcFarland said:

The fortunes of parties rise and fall. Most will disappear. This is a good thing. 

It is a good thing - which is why the states system has become so corrupted.  And why it's probably time for the liberals federally to go bye bye for good. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

3 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

It is a good thing - which is why the states system has become so corrupted.  And why it's probably time for the liberals federally to go bye bye for good. 

I doubt that the Liberals will entirely disappear. If they do, something centre-left will naturally rise up to replace them.

[taxme]

9 hours ago, August1991 said:

By-elections are a way to express an opinion.

Agreed. In 2025, Trudeau Jnr can still win - even a majority.

If you want to live in and see what living in a third world country is all about then vote for the Cuban Marxist gay loving dictator in Ottawa in the next federal election once again. That dictator will make all of your Marxist dreams come true. 

Canada needs a real and true conservative party that will get Canada back on the road to normality, morality and decency. All this liberal Marxist gender, pronouns, woke, gay/trans/dragster nonsense will not help Canada in getting back where it once was several decades ago where all of that nonsense mentioned above was never heard of or spoken. How do any of those things will help make Canada great again?

Equality and division will cause any nation to fail, and that is what we have going here in Canada today. There is no way that can help Canada continue to exist as long as there are people who will still continue to vote like fools for liberalism, socialism and environmentalism. It is those three ism's mentioned that is now destroying what once was a great country called Canada. Just my opinion. 

[CdnFox]

55 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

I doubt that the Liberals will entirely disappear. If they do, something centre-left will naturally rise up to replace them.

Of course - just like the PC didn't disappear federally or the conservatives in alberta didn't disappear provincially etc

But the party renews when it's recreated.  the power blocks inside tend to be broken down and it's something like a fresh start. And that's necessary from time to time.  The old pc party was very stagnant, the current CPC is much less so. But in time it'll need to be replaced as well. 

The liberal party has been around far too long and is desperately in need of being torn down and rebuilt. 

[Legato]

10 hours ago, August1991 said:

By-elections are a way to express an opinion.

Agreed. In 2025, Trudeau Jnr can still win - even a majority.

That's like returning the Soul Stone will get you a soul back. Won't happen. Ask the red guy.

[August1991]

On 9/16/2024 at 2:23 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

I doubt that the Liberals will entirely disappear. If they do, something centre-left will naturally rise up to replace them.

Centre-left? The federal Liberals are not centre-left and will never disappear.

Pierre Trudeau once described them as "the radical centre".

Brian Mulroney got the point.

[August1991]

On 9/16/2024 at 2:50 PM, taxme said:

If you want to live in and see what living in a third world country is all about then vote for the Cuban Marxist gay loving dictator in Ottawa in the next federal election once again. That dictator will make all of your Marxist dreams come true.

....

Canada is a federal State. And we now have a Charter of Rights that further restricts the State.

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, August1991 said:

Centre-left? The federal Liberals are not centre-left and will never disappear.

Pierre Trudeau once described them as "the radical centre".

Brian Mulroney got the point.

dude, the average cocker spaniel has a better understanding of politics than you do

[500channelsurfer]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

The Liberal vote loss in Verdun was split quite evenly between the Bloc, NDP and Conservatives. The Bloc just have the most historic support in this riding and its predecessors, where they normally come in 2nd, giving them a higher starting point.

Also big Liberal drop in the Manitoba riding, where traditional NDP support held.

Can be seen as good news for everyone except the Liberals.

[August1991]

21 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

dude, the average cocker spaniel has a better understanding of politics than you do

My beau-fils has an espanol belge.

====

Federal Canada politics is not left/right. It is "get along".

[August1991]

5 minutes ago, 500channelsurfer said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaSalle—Émard—Verdun

The Liberal vote loss in Verdun was split quite evenly between the Bloc, NDP and Conservatives.

....

I know the riding.

I was surprised at the Liberal results. And the Tories.

Both higher than expected.

 

[500channelsurfer]

In much of western Montreal and the West Island, it is said you could run a pig as a Liberal candidate and it will still win. 

The results follow the polls overall when applied to the ridings. I saw no surprises.

[August1991]

6 minutes ago, 500channelsurfer said:

In much of western Montreal and the West Island, it is said you could run a pig as a Liberal candidate and it will still win. 

The results follow the polls overall when applied to the ridings. I saw no surprises.

I disagree.

Montreal is like Lemberg, Lvov: A city where different people live together.

[500channelsurfer]

14 minutes ago, August1991 said:

Montreal is like Lemberg, Lvov: A city where different people live together.

I agree with you here.

I just think it is very difficult to get traditional Liberal voters in the Montreal area to vote for other parties. In this bi-election, just enough Liberal vote loss occurred and enough gain to Bloc and NDP to put the Bloc on top and make the NDP competitive.

This Verdun riding has been changing demographically, and the new demographics favour more progressive and more independence-leaning electorate.

The Liberals are very down in the polls. The last time they were this low more closely resembles Mulroney's 1984 win than any other recent Federal election. That election was the exception where Conservatives won a few Montreal-area traditional Liberal ridings.