Trudeau Liberals face ruin in upcoming byelections

[CdnFox]

Trudeau Liberals face ruin in upcoming byelections | National Post

If they lose Quebec riding, it could spell disaster for the future of the party

Liberals are gearing up for another pair of byelections, in the Quebec riding of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun and the Manitoba riding of Elmwood—Transcona. It's  A three way race in quebec between the libs the dips and the bloc, and it's conservatives vs ndp in manitoba

If the libs do not win quebec - this is going to be seen as a massive massive panic situation inside the party.  But they're about tied with the other two right now and they just parachuted in a candidate which has made the locals a little pissed off.  They won that riding by 20 points last time, even if they win with a squeaker it's gong to be horrible. 

The manitoba riding is ndp and has been for ever but the conservatives have a chance and they're running it as  a 'mini carbon tax referendum',  and if they take it from the ndp it's going to show the CPC is stronger than ever and the carbon tax is an absolute albatross. 

If they lose quebec it will be a massive battle to get trudeau out, and i suspect he'd be gone by January which is far too late for them to pick a new leader and get up to speed for the next election, they could totally kim campbell it. 

If the cpc wins manitoba it's going to send shockwaves to the libs but also rattle the hell out of the ndp. Losing a generational seat to the cpc would not bode well for them. 

[500channelsurfer]

For the Quebec riding, recent federal polls in Quebec have been trending toward the Bloc.

The most recent two elections and byelections, inclusively, however, in that riding and the one next to it, have been Liberal defeats to the more leftist party, albeit at the provincial level:

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/by-election-results/2023-03-13/326/

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/300/

The Quebec Liberal party has been perhaps more weakened than the federal Liberal Party at the time of these elections. But the federal NDP is also not exactly at a strong point in its support. Also, votes for QS are not guaranteed votes for the federal NDP even though those two parties share a significant portion of their voters. Since part of the QS platform is pro-sovereignty, easily some QS voters might vote Bloc instead of NDP.

It is rare for Anglophones in Quebec to switch their Liberal votes to another party. Even in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec, most federal ridings where there is a high percentage of Anglophones remained Liberal while most other Quebec ridings voted NDP. Since this riding is not nearly as Anglophone as reliably Liberal high-Anglo Quebec ridings, and the riding did vote NDP in 2011, it is not a Liberal stronghold. 

In the last Federal Election, the Liberals had a commanding lead, about twice that of the NDP and Bloc Québecois:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/53/11707e.html

While Liberal vote losses across Canada currently tend to go Conservative, this riding has a historically low support for Conservatives. Toronto—St. Paul's was a narrow Conservative victory.

Due to the Liberal and NDP candidates being city councilors representing different municipal divisions of the same federal riding, while overall trends are toward the Bloc, this riding remains a 3-way coin-toss, and the margin of victory will be narrow.

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, 500channelsurfer said:

For the Quebec riding, recent federal polls in Quebec have been trending toward the Bloc.

The most recent two elections and byelections, inclusively, however, in that riding and the one next to it, have been Liberal defeats to the more leftist party, albeit at the provincial level:

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/by-election-results/2023-03-13/326/

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/en/results-and-statistics/general-election-results/2022-10-03/300/

The Quebec Liberal party has been perhaps more weakened than the federal Liberal Party at the time of these elections. But the federal NDP is also not exactly at a strong point in its support. Also, votes for QS are not guaranteed votes for the federal NDP even though those two parties share a significant portion of their voters. Since part of the QS platform is pro-sovereignty, easily some QS voters might vote Bloc instead of NDP.

It is rare for Anglophones in Quebec to switch their Liberal votes to another party. Even in the 2011 Orange Wave in Quebec, most federal ridings where there is a high percentage of Anglophones remained Liberal while most other Quebec ridings voted NDP. Since this riding is not nearly as Anglophone as reliably Liberal high-Anglo Quebec ridings, and the riding did vote NDP in 2011, it is not a Liberal stronghold. 

In the last Federal Election, the Liberals had a commanding lead, about twice that of the NDP and Bloc Québecois:

https://www.elections.ca/res/rep/off/ovr2021app/53/11707e.html

While Liberal vote losses across Canada currently tend to go Conservative, this riding has a historically low support for Conservatives. Toronto—St. Paul's was a narrow Conservative victory.

Due to the Liberal and NDP candidates being city councilors representing different municipal divisions of the same federal riding, while overall trends are toward the Bloc, this riding remains a 3-way coin-toss, and the margin of victory will be narrow.

All good points. The end of the day though if the liberals cannot win this the caucus is going to be extremely upset. There's almost no chance to see PC will win, if they lose it will be to the block but that will still be a major defeat for them in the eyes of their party. And haven't helped them if the CPC is even remotely competitive

And in  Manitoba even though there's no chance the liberals are likely to win and it is normally an NDP riding, if the conservatives take it away it will be seen again as a slap in the face of the liberal NDP coalition.

These losses would put tremendous additional pressure on Justin to step down. But we are basically past the point of no return as far as electing another liberal leader. There just isn't enough time to do a proper leadership race and for that person to have enough time to get their act together before the next election. They would likely be slaughtered