ABACUS: Poilievre’s Conservatives lead by 13 over Liberals. A deep dive on why more than half of Canadians have a negative impression of Justin Trudeau

[CdnFox]

https://abacusdata.ca/poilievres-conservatives-lead-by-13-over-liberals-a-deep-dive-on-why-more-than-half-of-canadians-have-a-negative-impression-of-justin-trudeau/

November 6, 2023

From October 27 to November 1, 2023, Abacus Data conducted a national survey of 2,220 adults exploring several topics related to Canadian politics and current events as part of our regular national omnibus surveys. This survey was conducted entirely after the carbon tax announcement on Thursday afternoon.

In this report, we share new data on:

• Federal vote intentions with a deeper look at the possible road back for the Liberals.
• Party leader impressions with a deep dive on why more than half of Canadians have a negative view of Justin Trudeau.
• Which party Canadians think will win the next election.

Key points:

 

Since our last survey, we see almost no change with the Conservatives and NDP down 1 and the Liberals holding steady at 26%. In fact, since the end of July, vote intentions have changed very little and it appears we have entered a new normal where the Conservatives consistently lead by double digits.

Who will win the next election?

For the first time since the last election, we asked Canadians who they thought would win the next election. By a significant margin, Canadians are far more likely to think the Conservatives will win than the Liberals (43% to 20%). Another 10% think the NDP will win with 28% saying they are undecided.

 

According to Abacus Data CEO David Coletto: “These results suggest that the political opinion environment has solidified to some extent. After more than four years of a fairly competitive environment between the Liberals and Conservatives, we have clearly entered a new phase where the Conservatives have and sustain a sizeable lead over the Liberals.

The path back for the Liberal is there but it’s incredibly narrow. Once someone has a negative impression of you, it’s very hard to change that view. Once they decide they are tired of you, they are less likely to listen to what you say and may even discount your arguments simply because they have lost interest, respect, or affection. This is where the Liberals and Justin Trudeau find themselves right now.”

 

[CdnFox]

When you read the numbers - it's not just that people hate trudeau. I mean - they clearly do.  But it's also increasingly that they LIKE  Pierre.  The most important issue to people is the economy and finance broadly, and they see him as the best choice to deal with that.

No current liberal is likely to beat PP.   the only person who might stand a chance specifically because he's NOT a current liberal and he has SOME credibility on finance is Mark Carney.

The problem is that he's indicated that if he DID run it woudln't be till after trudeau loses - not just steps down but till the libs lose the next election because he's not an 1diot and knows that he couldn't win.  AND - the other problem is he's never even run for a seat, he has no idea how to win elections and it's not that easy.

Further - i don't think many remember who he is, and it would be very easy to paint him as a uber-elitist, All he's done is play with other people's money and it hasn't always gone well.

So if he goes in 2025 and wins the party leadership, he will be a guy who's never won a seat with no experience in politics fighting a guy who's probably got a majority and will be the incumbent of only 4 years.  That is a TOUGH row to hoe, and it could mean an early death for the liberals only 'shining star' that they could put forward,

[SpankyMcFarland]

Most people don’t know PP yet. They’ll really decide whether they like him if and when he becomes PM and has to make unpopular decisions.

[Gaétan]

Trudeau and Poilievre can't be considered prime ministers because both gave the green light to murder children in Gaza

[Michael Hardner]

With all respect to abacus "deep dive on impressions" is pretty close to an oxymoron.

I suspect that we're about to undergo a cognitive boost pretty soon, after Pierre wins and we start to get educated that the massive weight of problems on us aren't so easy to fix.  Democracy needs to be smarter.  "Throw the bums out" isn't an answer to anything. 

[Legato]

4 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

 Democracy needs to be smarter.  "Throw the bums out" isn't an answer to anything. 

No it is not but it sure is a good start.

[CdnFox]

2 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Most people don’t know PP yet. They’ll really decide whether they like him if and when he becomes PM and has to make unpopular decisions.

The polling indicates that not only do the majority know him, they like him.

And they're not going to care about his decisions as long as they see results. Food becomes affordable, rent stops rocketing up, the interest rate situation eases -  they won't care about much else.

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

With all respect to abacus "deep dive on impressions" is pretty close to an oxymoron.

 

Whereas you're just a regular m0r0n?  

Quote

Democracy needs to be smarter.  "Throw the bums out" isn't an answer to anything. 

Again - the indications are that PP is gaining popularity nicely.  This isn't just 'throw the bums out' - if it was he'd have been gone with Erin

But of course liberal supporters have to pretend that it COULDN"T BE that anyone LIKES the conservatives .. oh no can't have that. It's just that theyre "Foolishly" against trudeau.  Despite the fact that he has left canada in demonstrably the worst shape it's ever been in and it's entirely a result of his bad leadership.

What do you think PP will do that will be worse than dividing our people and turning them against each other? Borrowing more than all other prime ministers combined?  Dropping us far down the list in quality of life? Ruining critical trade relationships? Ruining our reputation on the world stage? creating marches against trans and gay people in the streets with identity politics? Selling us out to china? corruptly interfering with the justice system to get friends off?

 

What is PP going to do that you think people will look at him and say 'gosh we're really sorry we gave up trudeau?"

[Michael Hardner]

14 hours ago, CdnFox said:

What is PP going to do that you think people will look at him and say 'gosh we're really sorry we gave up trudeau?"

It's what he won't do that's in question.  

If you think he's going to unite people and fix the economy, ok but... how?  We haven't heard that.

Merely being not Trudeau isn't enough.  And that's what my point is: people are going to have to start paying attention to the details somehow.

I'm trying to post this in a way to sidestep your vilifying of politics that you don't like and look at the problems at a higher level.

Trudeau's time has come but the need is for a leader who can repurpose what works while creating a new vision for us.

I haven't seen anything from Poilievre beyond clever smartass politics against a hapless and beaten incumbent, but I hope that he has something up his sleeve beyond that, and beyond the usual austerity and tax cuts for the wealthy.

 

[OftenWrong]

17 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

"Throw the bums out" isn't an answer to anything. 

So you would keep the Liberals? It figures.

[OftenWrong]

40 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

you think he's going to unite people and fix the economy, ok but... how?

Stop government overspending to start. All Poilievre needs to do to right the boat is stop the waste and insanity. Stop being divisive.

Edited November 8, 2023 by OftenWrong

[Michael Hardner]

20 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

So you would keep the Liberals? It figures.

No.  I'm referring to the level of dialogue that produces that sentiment.

[Michael Hardner]

16 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Stop government overspending to start. All Poilievre needs to do to right the boat is stop the waste and insanity. Stop being divisive.

Divisive? Hahahaha... People call Trudeau divisive because they don't like him.  I'm talking about policy.

No, spending reductions alone won't do it.  People already criticize voters for electing governments that hand out cheques so there has to be more to their vision.

We have a brand new set of major challenges.  I hope he can succeed.

[OftenWrong]

16 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Divisive? Hahahaha... People call Trudeau divisive because they don't like him.  I'm talking about policy.

No, spending reductions alone won't do it.  People already criticize voters for electing governments that hand out cheques so there has to be more to their vision.

We have a brand new set of major challenges.  I hope he can succeed.

Please describe these major challenges that you think are brand new, and not due to Trudeau's personality flaws or overspending.

Edited November 8, 2023 by OftenWrong

[Michael Hardner]

3 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Please describe these major challenges that you think are brand new, and not due to Trudeau's personality flaws or overspending.

Changes in America's trade and defense outlook.

Shifting international alliances in general.

World Trade patterns reversing.

Foreign influence and propaganda attempts.

International Climate Treaties and Climate Response.

Demographic challenges of aging population.

I'm sure you think all of our unity problems are due to trudeau, but I would say National unity is a problem apart from him.  Or do you think you're not withstanding calls will cease to be used, Alberta will abandon its separatist tendencies as well Quebec etc?  That tolerance towards first Nations, inuit, metti, religious groups will increase somehow?  These are pervasive challenges, to my mind.

[OftenWrong]

6 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

I'm sure you think all of our unity problems are due to trudeau, but I would say National unity is a problem apart from him. 

None of those things are any different than the usual problems that any government will face. That's why we have a government, to do their job. Poilievre is a career politician so no doubt has many accomplishments under his belt over the years. Who is Justin Trudeau? What skills, knowledge, experience did he bring? Answer none. There is no reason any longer to believe he has the ability to lead. You should really be asking why this man got elected in the first place.

And then... re-elected. We deserve this, thanks to stupidity in the electorate.

And now you're in here like, "Well, Poilievre can't do anything about it either."

 

 

No, basic fact is Trudeau's incompetent.

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

1. None of those things are any different than the usual problems that any government will face.

2. That's why we have a government, to do their job.

3. Poilievre is a career politician so no doubt has many accomplishments under his belt over the years.

4. Who is Justin Trudeau? What skills, knowledge, experience did he bring? Answer none.

5. There is no reason any longer to believe he has the ability to lead. You should really be asking why this man got elected in the first place.

6. And then... re-elected. We deserve this, thanks to stupidity in the electorate.

7 And now you're in here like, "Well, Poilievre can't do anything about it either."

8. No, basic fact is Trudeau's incompetent.

1. I strongly disagree with your opinion.  Did Chretien or Harper have to deal with anything of this scale ?  I don't see it.
2. Yes, that's obvious.  Not even worth mentioning.
3. "No doubt" ?  Then why wouldn't you have just listed them here ?  I see him as a great orator, political strategist of great ability, but in terms of accomplishing real things in the real world I would need examples.
4. Not many, and in a way that's a praise of him despite the failures.  Again it's obvious and I can only guess you have time to kill and are throwing in obvious points to extend the discussion...
5. I know why - people were sick of Harper's face for the most part and the fluffy campaign around Trudeau was well designed... what year was it 2015 ?  I don't remember there being major crises or for that matter why people were sick of Harper...
6. I think it's hilarious when people call the electorate stupid.  The same electorate loves Poilievre now so... I'm guessing you just thought they "got smart" ...
7. Yes but ... well I didn't say much of anything good about Trudeau.  I'm just speculating about the challenges facing Poilievre.  I'm also wishing him well if you didn't notice.
8. The long list of challenges I wrote is untouched by you... both as something Poilievre can tackle and as something Trudeau could have had something to do about.

I'm starting to think the Poilievre lovers are thin-skinned and hate politics in general.  Well, as I said I hope for the best for Poilievre and Canada whenever the election is.  I'm also starting to wonder if my positivity around his tenure aggravates people who are so partisan that they actually *hate* politicians as well as politics.

Anyway...

[ExFlyer]

4 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. I strongly disagree with your opinion.  Did Chretien or Harper have to deal with anything of this scale ?  I don't see it.
2. Yes, that's obvious.  Not even worth mentioning.
3. "No doubt" ?  Then why wouldn't you have just listed them here ?  I see him as a great orator, political strategist of great ability, but in terms of accomplishing real things in the real world I would need examples.
4. Not many, and in a way that's a praise of him despite the failures.  Again it's obvious and I can only guess you have time to kill and are throwing in obvious points to extend the discussion...
5. I know why - people were sick of Harper's face for the most part and the fluffy campaign around Trudeau was well designed... what year was it 2015 ?  I don't remember there being major crises or for that matter why people were sick of Harper...
6. I think it's hilarious when people call the electorate stupid.  The same electorate loves Poilievre now so... I'm guessing you just thought they "got smart" ...
7. Yes but ... well I didn't say much of anything good about Trudeau.  I'm just speculating about the challenges facing Poilievre.  I'm also wishing him well if you didn't notice.
8. The long list of challenges I wrote is untouched by you... both as something Poilievre can tackle and as something Trudeau could have had something to do about.

I'm starting to think the Poilievre lovers are thin-skinned and hate politics in general.  Well, as I said I hope for the best for Poilievre and Canada whenever the election is.  I'm also starting to wonder if my positivity around his tenure aggravates people who are so partisan that they actually *hate* politicians as well as politics.

Anyway...

While the poll shows Conservatives over Liberals, 61% are not in favour of conservatives.

[Michael Hardner]

6 minutes ago, ExFlyer said:

While the poll shows Conservatives over Liberals, 61% are not in favour of conservatives.

39% is a lot, enough for a majority in our system.  

[CdnFox]

6 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

It's what he won't do that's in question.  

 

Well he won't double the debt, won't ruin our trade relations, won't pit every canadian against every other canadian, won't invite a nazi to parliament to thank him for his service....   I think people will be fine with that,

Quote

If you think he's going to unite people and fix the economy, ok but... how?  We haven't heard that.

We have heard this.  And it's simple. Spend less and don't go on the national stage and call anyone who disagrees with you a bigot misogyist for starters.  There's a bunch of other things he will and can do.  We had a VERY united country under harper.

 

Quote

Merely being not Trudeau isn't enough. 

He's been quite clear as to what he'd like to do differently. And people are agreeing with him in large numbers.

Quote

I'm trying to post this in a way to sidestep your vilifying of politics that you don't like and look at the problems at a higher level.

Oh are you   I'm trying to answer this in a way that sidesteps your ignorance, bigotry and deceitful nature.

Quote

Trudeau's time has come but the need is for a leader who can repurpose what works while creating a new vision for us.

And we have one. And people are realizing it and are ready to hand him a strong majority.

 

Quote

I haven't seen anything from Poilievre beyond clever smartass politics against a hapless and beaten incumbent, but I hope that he has something up his sleeve beyond that, and beyond the usual austerity and tax cuts for the wealthy.

You will never see it - not because it's not there but because you will always turn a blind eye to anything that isn't your beloved liberals.  What you REALLY want is for trudeau to lose the election by a hair, the libs to find a new leader you can like, and then immediately go back to the polls and take their rightful seat as rulers of the country.

To suggest that PP has not said how he would be different than justin is a farce.  To pretend he's not identified key areas of concern is dishonest. Which is fairly typical of your responses.

Polievre has made it clear that his priorities are to get spending under control as fast as reasonably possible, to reduce beurocracy and red tape, to stop wasteful programs like the 'arrivecan' app, to ease the tax burdens on Canadians and to promote and encourage investment so that we get back some of our competativeness and improve our quality of life.

That's being a hell of a lot better than justin.

[blackbird]

5 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Who is Justin Trudeau? What skills, knowledge, experience did he bring? Answer none.

It is worse than that.  He pontificates and lectures Canadians on the CBC, CTV news regularly.  A guy who has said bad things about the truckers / anti vax protesters, evangelical Christians, conservatives, and now people who burn natural gas to heat their homes are unworthy.  Only his Liberal constituencies in the maritimes deserve a break on the carbon taxes on home heating.  He is nobody to be lecturing Canadians about anything.  He is a real cause of division.

Edited November 8, 2023 by blackbird

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

While the poll shows Conservatives over Liberals, 61% are not in favour of conservatives.

A lot more than 61 percent are against trudeau. And far less even than that for the ndp.

Sooooooo...

Also - the poll doesn't ask who's "not in favour" of the cpc. Many people might say the libs are their first choice and the cpc is their second and they're just fine with that.  The fact you prefer one doesn't mean you don't support the other.

[Michael Hardner]

44 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

1. Well he won't double the debt,
2. won't ruin our trade relations
3. won't pit every canadian against every other canadian,
4. won't invite a nazi to parliament to thank him for his service....   I think people will be fine with that,
5. We have heard this.  And it's simple. Spend less and don't go on the national stage and call anyone who disagrees with you a bigot misogyist for starters. 
6. There's a bunch of other things he will and can do. 
7. We had a VERY united country under harper.
8. To suggest that PP has not said how he would be different than justin is a farce.  To pretend he's not identified key areas of concern is dishonest. Which is fairly typical of your responses.

1. Adding a massive amount to the debt is required sometimes.  Conservatives do it too.
2. I agree that Poilievre won't make the stupid moves Trudeau made against Trump however it won't help him that much as there's unlikely to be a Trump back in the WH.  If there is, I don't know if licking his boots will help any.
3. Already addressed that.
4. Pierre gets his picture taken with lots of unsavory folks... nobody much cares either way about gaffes.  And anyway I think that the Speaker took ownership of that one.
5. We already talked about that. Cutting spending isn't going to make a big difference especially if we're in deep recession.  Poilievre will be forced to spend just like Harper did.  And I never called Harper out for that.
6. Ha.  "Bunch of other things" which I have already asked about twice and nobody seems to have the depth of understanding to explain.  I guess because he himself hasn't said.
7. Do you mean Western Separatism was quiet ?  I would agree, especially because Harper amended the equalization formula that they are squawking about now again that Trudeau is in office... amusing
8. No - he has made plenty of criticisms and some of them are apt but given the weight of perceived and actual problems what is the plan?  You seem to say he has revealed it - so post it here already.

The parts of your post that I left out imply I'm a secret Trudeau lover or Liberal lover.  I want Poilievre to do something different and have wished him well on this very thread.

It's almost like you equate wishing harm on the government that affects all of our lives is a natural and good thing.  It's not.  We are "the public" and we should be discussing issues and making decisions based on rational assessments of the visions and plans of the leaders.

Not basing our decisions on dispising a "type" of person or whatnot...

I listed a bunch of issues that Poilievre will have to deal with.  I would guess that he has many advantages over Trudeau in addressing them but I am curious as to what the plan would be on these.  "Cutting spending" is not going to fix any of the ones in the list as far as I can see.  But there are things that can be done that includes cutting spending and restructuring.

We'll see and like my fellow Canadians I will cheer him on if he succeeds.

[OftenWrong]

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

I strongly disagree with your opinion.

I know, because I support conservatives and you want to cover the damage being done by Liberals.

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Did Chretien or Harper have to deal with anything of this scale ? 

What scale. The economy? Environment, Foreign affairs? All failures of this government. Did Chretien and Harper have to do their job? Yes. Or be dismissed at the next election. That's how it works, not, just shrug and say "oh well anyway..."

4 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

The long list of challenges I wrote is untouched by you... both as something Poilievre can tackle and as something Trudeau could have had something to do about.

I see no reason to pick through that list. What you wrote is exactly what I expected. There is nothing in that list that is atypical of issues for government to work on. Trudeau has not worked on those items in your list to the point of being successful, otherwise we wouldn't be talking about him as we are.

When I say Poilievre is a career politician with years of working experience compared to Trudeau, that is a fact not opinion. My "opinion" as you call it doesn't need to be backed by links. It is simple common sense, backed by the facts in reality we have today.

You wish Poilievre good luck but say you are not confident he can fix the issues. Sounds like you are excusing Trudeau by saying it's not his fault, because no one can fix these brand-new major challenges.

Edited November 8, 2023 by OftenWrong

[ExFlyer]

1 hour ago, CdnFox said:

A lot more than 61 percent are against trudeau. And far less even than that for the ndp.

Sooooooo...

Also - the poll doesn't ask who's "not in favour" of the cpc. Many people might say the libs are their first choice and the cpc is their second and they're just fine with that.  The fact you prefer one doesn't mean you don't support the other.

Yup, I can do the math.

But, not all are for PP either. Only 39%

But as Michael Hardner said "39% is a lot, enough for a majority in our system."

You are right, the poll does not ask "who is not in favour" of PP, but, it does demonstrate it just by publishing the numbers that most do not. More people in Canada are not for PP than are.

Edited November 8, 2023 by ExFlyer