"Travel from Wuhan is not a problem for our system" (Lab leak: "most likely origin", FBI)

[myata]

Today on BBC News: FBI director Wray acknowledges the lab leak as the "most likely" cause of the Coronavirus pandemic.

"The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident," he told Fox News.

In this anniversary period of the beginning of the first serious wave of infections in the country, maybe it's worthwhile to return and evaluate the statements, actions, preparedness and the results. Even because in the rapidly changing word of today, future epidemics and pandemics are all but assured.

[myata]

Does it sound like (or at which point it will): "we have no clue; we'll say anything to get on the bandwagon; and we'll punish you merrily for our oversights, cluelessness and incompetence, for your own good?"

If not this time, at which next terrible pandemic we will understand it for what it is? Because it won't change. Because it can't. That much we know for certain, assured and guaranteed.

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, myata said:

Does it sound like (or at which point it will): "we have no clue; we'll say anything to get on the bandwagon; and we'll punish you merrily for our oversights, cluelessness and incompetence, for your own good?"

If not this time, at which next terrible pandemic we will understand it for what it is? Because it won't change. Because it can't. That much we know for certain, assured and guaranteed.

?

[ExFlyer]

3 hours ago, myata said:

Today on BBC News: FBI director Wray acknowledges the lab leak as the "most likely" cause of the Coronavirus pandemic.

"The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident," he told Fox News.

In this anniversary period of the beginning of the first serious wave of infections in the country, maybe it's worthwhile to return and evaluate the statements, actions, preparedness and the results. Even because in the rapidly changing word of today, future epidemics and pandemics are all but assured.

Another dramatic title LOL

And further into the article it is stated:

"Many scientists point out there is no evidence that it leaked from a lab.

And other US government agencies have drawn differing conclusions to the FBI's."
 

3 hours ago, myata said:

Does it sound like (or at which point it will): "we have no clue; we'll say anything to get on the bandwagon; and we'll punish you merrily for our oversights, cluelessness and incompetence, for your own good?"

If not this time, at which next terrible pandemic we will understand it for what it is? Because it won't change. Because it can't. That much we know for certain, assured and guaranteed.

Which is something you so often do.... jump on a bandwagon without seeing what is on it LOL

[myata]

2 hours ago, ExFlyer said:

And other US government agencies

US Department of Energy came to the same conclusion, though with lower confidence. That's two. The next milestone is if / when the agencies would harmonize their findings and present the common position to the Senate and the world.

This is a lot better, to me and I want to think, many reasonable intelligent citizens than a mouth with no brain connected to the Central Committee table barking out the truth of the day.

[ExFlyer]

21 minutes ago, myata said:

US Department of Energy came to the same conclusion, though with lower confidence. That's two. The next milestone is if / when the agencies would harmonize their findings and present the common position to the Senate and the world.

This is a lot better, to me and I want to think, many reasonable intelligent citizens than a mouth with no brain connected to the Central Committee table barking out the truth of the day.

Taking part of a sentence and making up what you want around it is typical. The article says a lot of nothing.

"Many scientists point out there is no evidence that it leaked from a lab.

And other US government agencies have drawn differing conclusions to the FBI's."

"Some of them have said - but with a low level of certainty - that the virus did not start in a lab but instead jumped from animals to humans."

"the US Department of Energy said it had found the virus was most likely the result of a lab leak in Wuhan but could only reach that conclusion with "low confidence"."  Low confidence, not "lower".

And very important ""If we have something that is ready to be briefed to the American people and the Congress, we will do that."

 

 

[myata]

You can be so convincingly clueless when it works in your favor. Great job, there!

Edited March 1, 2023 by myata

[Moonbox]

Have to at least give myata credit for not making up what these articles or reports are saying.  He himself is highlighting the "low confidence" and the "most likely" qualifiers attached to all of these statements.  That's a welcome departure from what some of the other..."human beings" do here.  

[eyeball]

It still really doesn't matter unless SARS-CoV-2 was engineered with a more malevolent purpose like depopulating Earth. In which case the usual suspects should be screaming for even greater protective measures as opposed to screeching for none whatsoever.

[myata]

I don't know the final answer but I look at it this way: all the evidence that is known to the "it has to be natural" professor is known to US DoE and FBI. The opposite isn't necessarily true.

The professor has been wrong before and had to retract and comment. So their assessment of possibilites, short of convincing evidence can be taken with a grain of salt.

That's the status quo. Further it'll be an interesting problem to analyze what is more likely: to find finally the mysterious chain animal? or to obtain factual evidence from a top secret China government lab.

[Moonbox]

1 hour ago, eyeball said:

It still really doesn't matter unless SARS-CoV-2 was engineered with a more malevolent purpose like depopulating Earth. In which case the usual suspects should be screaming for even greater protective measures as opposed to screeching for none whatsoever.

It does matter, because if it was an experiment gone awry and the Chinese covered it up then we have even more reason not to trust them than before, and certainly plenty more reason not to cooperate with them on further research projects.  

[ExFlyer]

4 hours ago, myata said:

You can be so convincingly clueless when it works in your favor. Great job, there!

Hey, if you are going to make rectal plucks from an article, use them all and in context.

Problem is that "when it works in your favor" you select specific portions, but by using them all, they don't fit your narrative. In which case, you should just have left well enough alone  LOL

[suds]

So basically we have 2 theories at play here...

Theory #1 (animal to man theory)   Past experience tells us this is likely the most probable route for transmission. That said, thousands and thousands of animals have been tested so far and no animal source has been found that could have possibly transmitted this virus to humans.

Theory #2 ( Wuhan lab leak theory)  Lax bio-safety measures were being used at the Wuhan lab.  Gain-of-function research was also being carried out at the Wuhan lab, partly  funded (directly or indirectly) by the U.S. government. In this case, gain-of-function refers to viruses taken from animals (such as bats) and genetically modified to make them more transmissible (deadly) to humans. We know the Wuhan lab is only a short walk from the wet market where it was first believed the virus jumped from animal to human. Finally, the actions (and in-actions) of the Chinese government in co-operating with the World Health Organization and other countries was dismal at best leading to suspicions of a major cover-up.

Based on what we know so far, I'll go with #2.

 

 

[suds]

28 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

It does matter, because if it was an experiment gone awry and the Chinese covered it up then we have even more reason not to trust them than before, and certainly plenty more reason not to cooperate with them on further research projects.  

I agree partially, but what does that solve? What happens in China (or the U.S.), doesn't stay in China. It gets exported all over the world. What we need is universal co-operation in order to nip any future pandemic out while in its bud. To share information with one another. What we need is some kind of action plan that all countries agree on to confine the virus geographically to the best of our abilities, at whatever the cost. And perhaps even outlawing this gain-of-function research. I mean, what else could go wrong?

[eyeball]

44 minutes ago, Moonbox said:

It does matter, because if it was an experiment gone awry and the Chinese covered it up then we have even more reason not to trust them than before, and certainly plenty more reason not to cooperate with them on further research projects.  

I mean in terms of measures of protecting ourselves from COVID. As for China, I've been prescribing no truck nor trade on general principles for decades. This is just one more reason AFAIC.

As for measures in terms of protecting ourselves from our government's wheeling and dealing with dictators I'm not aware of many if any that are worth the paper they're written on.

We're all rather exposed to whatever happens.

 

[Moonbox]

It's about more than just COVID though, or even American involvement and research funding.  It could be Chernobyl-type moment, where a corrupt and oppressive regime is held to account by the global community for releasing a virus that killed millions.  Was it their shitty practices and general corruption/robot-think, or really just an unavoidable fluke?  

[eyeball]

Whatever it is why should it make any difference in how we solve the more immediate consequences?

There's just no excuse whatsoever for all the freaked out politics whether we're faced with a disaster that stems from (a) an unambiguously natural event (b) a human accident or (c) a deliberate release of Murder Hornets.

I seems we have to pick sides first or decide whether we believe it or if it aligns with our identity.

I mean FFS, really?

[SpankyMcFarland]

Is there new evidence supporting the lab leak hypothesis? I am as keen to criticize the PRC as the next man but facts are needed. Two recent scientific papers I came across suggested the wet market theory was more plausible. 

[myata]

3 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

Two recent scientific papers I came across suggested the wet market theory was more plausible. 

There was a paper awhile back on high probability of the animals source that was widely criticized if not retracted. Speculations on probabilities would not add much confidence at this point, short of new and convincing evidence.

And again, any serious intelligence evidence or factors short of convincing evidence would not necessarily be open to the general research community. We will have to wait a while longer to see if a common determination will be produced by the investigating agencies and presented to the public and the Congress. In that case it would be clear that there are some additional factors and/or evidence on top of random probabilities. And if it doesn't happen, the question will remain open, possibly indefinitely.

But one conclusion is quite clear already: whatever the outcome of the investigation, China was not and is not cooperating in good faith and nowhere near the extent needed. Given the magnitude of the impact on the global scale, that in itself can be the most important conclusion for the foreseeable perspective.

[myata]

If the issue is discussed on the level of informed citizen rather than specialist/expert (no S) here's some obvious tensions with the "natural origin" theory:

- in all previous instances, SARS, MERS, coronaviruses were transmitting slowly, adapting to new host immune system so individual quarantines worked. This as I understand is common for infections jumping hosts. Why Covid had such a high transmission ability right from the get go?

- if the virus has been developing slowly for some time in a human population, why has not it been detected earlier?

- if it happened in the animal population, two points: why it hasn't been detected earlier and found in an extensive search? and even with a "close" animal host, could transmission be so high, right from the outset?

- finally, if the natural origin is true, why the obscurity and in the early days, actual coverup?

I would be interested to see reasonable, meaningful answers to these in a clear, plain human language before quoting likelihoods and probabilities.

Edited March 2, 2023 by myata

[myata]

Upon a further thought, maybe speculations of animal origin, more or less grounded, short of convincing factual evidence have significance only in the theoretical perspective. This mutation more or less likely than that one sure, but it says nothing about what actually happened. It makes sense only if other possibilities have been ruled out that clearly is not the case.

We already know that incidents in critical infrastructure can, have and will happen. With the combination of factors in this case even those in the public domain, it's not only possible but appears to be plausible. So there's at least one plausible cause that can be ruled out only with factual evidence, finding the animal source.

Edited March 2, 2023 by myata

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 3/2/2023 at 3:22 AM, myata said:

But one conclusion is quite clear already: whatever the outcome of the investigation, China was not and is not cooperating in good faith and nowhere near the extent needed. Given the magnitude of the impact on the global scale, that in itself can be the most important conclusion for the foreseeable perspective.

I am as keen as anyone to criticize the PRC but that proves nothing with regard to the origin of this virus. It’s a secretive totalitarian regime after all. The question remains an open one and the tone taken by Wray is surprising. He should back up his opinion with evidence. If he has something new to add he should share it. 

[myata]

2 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

The question remains an open one and the tone taken by Wray is surprising. He should back up his opinion with evidence. If he has something new to add he should share it. 

Any one piece of insider evidence would tip the balance of likelihood toward an incident in a top secret government lab in a totalitarian state with zero accountability and transparency (rings distant bells btw?) versus random dance of probabilities in an unknown animal chain. Quite obviously we may not know the full details of it instantly or any time soon.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Just now, myata said:

Any one piece of insider evidence would tip the balance of likelihood toward an incident in a top secret government lab in a totalitarian state with zero accountability and transparency (rings distant bells btw?) versus random dance of probabilities in an unknown animal chain. Quite obviously we may not know the full details of it instantly or any time soon.

We may never know. Either way human activity caused it and we are woefully vulnerable to the next viral pandemic. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 3/2/2023 at 4:18 AM, myata said:

If the issue is discussed on the level of informed citizen rather than specialist/expert (no S) here's some obvious tensions with the "natural origin" theory:

- in all previous instances, SARS, MERS, coronaviruses were transmitting slowly, adapting to new host immune system so individual quarantines worked. This as I understand is common for infections jumping hosts. Why Covid had such a high transmission ability right from the get go?

- if the virus has been developing slowly for some time in a human population, why has not it been detected earlier?

- if it happened in the animal population, two points: why it hasn't been detected earlier and found in an extensive search? and even with a "close" animal host, could transmission be so high, right from the outset?

- finally, if the natural origin is true, why the obscurity and in the early days, actual coverup?

I would be interested to see reasonable, meaningful answers to these in a clear, plain human language before quoting likelihoods and probabilities.

You’re unlikely to get peer-worthy answers here. It is probable that as habitats are disrupted and destroyed, animal viruses, including coronaviruses, are crossing species barriers much more frequently than we realize and just fail, fortunately, to start a plague. Thus it’s very hard to say how these viruses behave because so many are not detected at all. For example, AIDS probably infected humans many decades before the Eighties. There could have been numerous outbreaks of Covid before. Who would notice some old people dying of pneumonia in China? 

Edited March 3, 2023 by SpankyMcFarland