Liberal Majority in View

[August1991]

The Liberals are heading into the election campaign with a majority victory in sight and a lead of almost 10 percentage points over the second-place Conservatives, a new Toronto Star poll says.

Recovering from the negative impact of Justice John Gomery's sponsorship report, the Liberals stand at 38.7 per cent of voter support, while the Conservatives have 29.4 per cent and New Democrats have 16.9 per cent, according to EKOS Research Associates Inc.

The Bloc Québécois, which fields candidates only in Quebec, has 10.6 per cent while the Green Party stands at 3.9 per cent support among decided voters.

Toronto Star

What can I say? Ralph Klein was right?

[shoop]

You could provide a more accurate title.

The poll basically means that the Liberals are a couple points back from where they started in 2004. We all know how that one turned out.

Looks like the Liberals and CPC are trading support in Ontario and BC from the last go round. Better to do well in "vote-rich" Ontario me thinks.

What can I say?  Ralph Klein was right?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[BigGunner]

The Liberals are heading into the election campaign with a majority victory in sight and a lead of almost 10 percentage points over the second-place Conservatives, a new Toronto Star poll says.

Recovering from the negative impact of Justice John Gomery's sponsorship report, the Liberals stand at 38.7 per cent of voter support, while the Conservatives have 29.4 per cent and New Democrats have 16.9 per cent, according to EKOS Research Associates Inc.

The Bloc Québécois, which fields candidates only in Quebec, has 10.6 per cent while the Green Party stands at 3.9 per cent support among decided voters.

Toronto Star

What can I say? Ralph Klein was right?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

HAHAHAHA

Liberals at 43% in BC?!

EKOS is a Liberal-friendly pollster. Their numbers are so skewed, it borders on propaganda.

[Neal.F.]

[on the wall. It says "Stephen! Withdraw the motion! You've been weighed in the balance and found wanting!"

This poll is Not good news for anyone except Federalists and Liberals.

Note that Bloc support appears to have declined (from 13%-10.6 nationally) despite the disturbing finding that 50% thought Quebec separationwas likely in the next 5 years.

By knocking the Bloc down to pre-2004 levels we could see that number reduced as well. If all Federalists line up together, and don't cast protest votes for (especially!) the Bloc Quebecois, as happened in '04, there is a good chance of taking back 15-20 seats from teh separatists.

I am a Canadian first, and a Conservative second. A a canadian, I would be pleased to see the Bloc's momentum shattered, or better yet destroyed. As a Conservative, I am saddened that we appear headed for another term in Stornoway.

The lesson to be learned is that though scandal may contribute to the groundwork that will result in a government's fall, to wit, give someone motivation to vote against the poops in power, but the corrollary is that the alternative needs to give the jaded voter a reason to go through with the switch.

Ths clearly has not happened,given that Tory numbers haven't been able to crack the 30% level for more than a few hours. Given the scandals that have plagued this Govt, not to mention its excreble perfomance as a government, the alternative government party should be at a minimum of 40%!

This won't make me popular with anyone, but it is the truth, and needs to be stated. w'll hear the typical rantings about how Ekos and frank Graves are in teh Liberals' pocket, but would somebody care to explain why all the other polls fail to show the Conservatives cracking 30%? And don't say its the policies...Most people don't know what those policies are!It's been all Adscam all the time, and all people see is the anger, and not the substance. And righteous indignation will only take you so far. The voters response is "We're angry too, but why should i trust you, and why should i vote for you?"

It's not the policies so much as having done a poor job of articulating them.

[shoop]

That number made me blink as well. This poll gives the Conservatives 13 More points in BC than the Ekos poll does.

I also found the 43% number a little fishy because it has been *32 years* since the Liberals even broke 30% in a Federal Election in BC. What has happened in BC in the past 17 months to cause the Liberals to gain over 14 points there?

Robbins Poll

Liberals at 43% in BC?!

EKOS is a Liberal-friendly pollster. Their numbers are so skewed, it borders on propaganda.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Riverwind]

I also found the 43% number a little fishy because it has been *32 years* since the Liberals even broke 30% in a Federal Election in BC. What has happened in BC in the past 17 months to cause the Liberals to gain over 14 points there?

The BC Liberal gov't is really the Conservative party (they even used blue signs in the last election ) and dissatisfaction with the provincial gov't may be translating into more center or left wing votes.

[shoop]

I hear you and agree to a point. There is still a lot of membership in both the Provincial and Federal wings of the Liberal party.

Still, when I come across two polls with such drastically different numbers for B.C. I am gonna stick with the one that has more of a basis in history...

The BC Liberal gov't is really the Conservative party (they even used blue signs in the last election ) and dissatisfaction with the provincial gov't may be translating into more center or left wing votes.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

[Canuck E Stan]

The poll results are based on telephone interviews with 802 adults between Nov. 22 and Nov. 24. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error increases for regional breakdowns of the results.

In what may be a measure of Canadians' dissatisfaction with political leaders on the eve of an election, 43 per cent told pollsters they "don't know" who would make the best prime minister.

But, among those who did express a preference, Martin is on top, with 21 per cent support, compared to 12 per cent for Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and 8 per cent for the NDP's Jack Layton.

Pretty low sample for a poll (802 adults)....how do they know they are adults on the phone?

Margin of error seems higher than most polls(3.5%)

The margin of error increases for regional breakdowns of the results. What does that mean...most calls were in Toronto?

43% "don't know" that's means the poll was based on 57% of 802.

Should give the Toronto area Liberals a boost.....for a few days.

[apollo19]

HAHAHAHA

Liberals at 43% in BC?!

EKOS is a Liberal-friendly pollster. Their numbers are so skewed, it borders on propaganda.

I have to agree with you here on the BC numbers. I don't know how these companies can believe their own data -- there is a safe amount of votes in BC for the Tories (in the Interior/Bible Belt) where they will never dip below a certain number of seats or votes (short of an adscam of their own happening). In the last election, the CPC got 36% in BC, while the Liberals had 29%. The NDP is obviously picking up support from the left-side of the Liberals, so I don't really see how one can put the Tories at 21% in BC. That would mean they lost nearly half their voters since the last election there. On the Ontario numbers, it seems the CPC is still climbing there, albeit slowly. I think they should be able to break into the Brampton-Mississauga area with their increase in the upcoming election.

[apollo19]

Well.. I guess we can all throw this EKOS poll out the window with a new poll coming in:

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=2876

Toronto, ON – According to the latest Ipsos Reid poll conducted for CanWest News Service/Global News, the governing Liberal Party, with 34% of voter support (-2 points from a poll conducted last week), holds a slim lead over their chief rivals, the Conservatives (30%, +3 points). Meanwhile, the NDP at 16% (unchanged) and the Green Party (5%, -1 point) hold steady. And in Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is up 9 points and now hold 59% of federal votes in this province versus 23% for the federal Liberals (-5 points).

This was released today, the 26th, with a larger sample size, so I would assume it to be more accurate.

[Rovik]

We all know that polls can change drastically from week-to-week or even day-to-day, therefore, people should take these polls with a grain of salt.

But having said that, if indeed when election day comes and there is a perception of a Liberal majority, this could be good for the NDP. Many soft-core NDP voters who would be scared to death of a Conservative govt might feel it's safe to vote NDP without the fear of a Conservative govt. Many of these voters voted Liberal last election to thwart a Conservative govt. Of course this was due to blatant scaremongering by the Liberals who will do anything to win an election including vote-buying and stealing policies from other parties, but that's another topic.

[sharkman]

I've read some more results from the IPSOS-REID poll. 67% believe the recent Liberal spending binge is a cynical attempt to win votes.

62% say the Liberals do not deserve to be re-elected and it's time for a change.

53% say their impression of Paul Martin has worsened in recent weeks.

I'd say the Liberals have something to be worried about, bigtime.

[Kliege]

People can't really be that surprise by these poll numbers.

The majority of the electorate in Canada would rather be more afraid of what the ruling Liberal party says that the Conservatives MIGHT do, rather than what the ruling Liberal party actually DOES do.

And so the country is ruled by the aforementioned majority's fear and loathing of a particular political party, inspired and orchestrated by the Liberals and enthusiastically abetted by the NDP and the media.

This has nothing to do with Harper.

Does the the leader of the Conservative Party actually need to be the perfect political figure? It doesn't matter; the liberals and their allies in the NDP and the media will find something wrong, some tiny skeleton, a missed or mumbled word, a gesture, a high-school detention. Preston was too intellectual, Stockwell was too religious, Stephen is too aloof - honest men who are too something to be trusted with the government instead of those petulant, self-centred children and petty (and worse) crooks now in power.

The print and electronic media say that Harper is scary. The greater number of my my fellow former countrymen catch a few thoughts like this and embed them into psyche. After all, politics isn't as important as the sacred hockey, is it?

Scare a few Ontario residents who vote, and the election is over by the time it gets to the Manitoba border.

It is not very hard for the Liberals to stay in power; badmouth any up-and-comers, drop billions of dollars to assure enough votes to win an election, make a "rich climber" an instant cabinet minister. Somebody gets a real tape that could sink a party? plant the seed. It's fake. Doesn't have to be true. RCMP investigate? Don't be silly. They got some of the money, and put it into a non-Mountie bank account. Lose a non-confidence vote?

Ignore it. The Governor General won't dissolve Parliament; the Liberals fund her regal life style after all.

Will the fifth estate save the country?

Don't hold your nose. The national broadcaster is funded by the ruling party. Jeopardize funding? Nah. The other outlets are ruling party members and minions. Betray your friends? You got to be kidding.

There aren't any Canadian Woodwards or Bernsteins...or any Deep Throats for that manner.

The Liberals have nothing to fear by going to the polls. They have been caught doing some pretty egregious stuff and are still ahead in the polls; the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star say so, so it must be true. And who cares how the Albertans vote? The election is settled by the time the polls close in Alberta, and besides, they're all rednecks anyway.

Cynical?

No just reality. I feel sorry for those that don't realize it.

Inertia, propaganda, corruption, anti-americanism, un-examined biases, and when all else fails, sheer carelessness. Bet Liberal it's always the 'safe' bet.

Thats the Canadian Way.

[sharkman]

People can't really be that surprise by these poll numbers.

The majority of the electorate in Canada would rather be more afraid of what the ruling Liberal party says that the Conservatives MIGHT do, rather than what the ruling Liberal party actually DOES do.

This has been very true in the past. But the danger with this strategy is human nature. People get desensitized to the scaremongering. So the Liberals must try harder to overcome this, and end up sounding rather shrill in the process.

The more recent Ipsos Reid poll shows people are just not scared enough of the Conservatives. It will be interesting to see if the Liberal party responds with the same old tired 'scary' label.

[Kliege]

Trust me the Liberals will use the same old playbook they have being using for years and it will work like a charm on the Ontario voter.

Democracy in Canada is basically dead for all pretence and purpose.

Don't be surprise when this elections turnout is one of the lowest in history.

[Yaro]

People can't really be that surprise by these poll numbers.

The majority of the electorate in Canada would rather be more afraid of what the ruling Liberal party says that the Conservatives MIGHT do, rather than what the ruling Liberal party actually DOES do.

And so the country is ruled by the aforementioned majority's fear and loathing of a particular political party, inspired and orchestrated by the Liberals and enthusiastically abetted by the NDP and the media.

Or maybe people see actual problems in the conservative party? Like a leader with the mind of a head of lettuce? Or the powerful minority in the party that are hardcore social conservatives? Or the foreign policy disaster in the making?

I don't like allot of things about the liberals, but honestly the more I hear some of you the more I realize that if these are the people that make up the current conservative movement then Canadians really do have something to fear, and to think before I came here I was planning on voting conservative.

Does the the leader of the Conservative Party actually need to be the perfect political figure? It doesn't matter; the liberals and their allies in the NDP and the media will find something wrong, some tiny skeleton, a missed or mumbled word, a gesture, a high-school detention. Preston was too intellectual, Stockwell was too religious, Stephen is too aloof - honest men who are too something to be trusted with the government instead of those petulant, self-centred children and petty (and worse) crooks now in power.

Perfect? No, halfway competent? Yes. Preston was never too intellectual, Stockwell was a nutcase, and Stephen is a policy moron. It’s not the nature of conservatism that’s the problem its just that this current batch really is that bad, sorry but as we move along it becomes more and more obvious that some people just refuse to see the most obvious warts. To honest? Are you insane? No party has spread the retarded rhetoric around thicker then this incarnation of the Conservatives, PM is soft on Pedophiles? The Liberals are in bed with organized crime? They actually said these things.

The print and electronic media say that Harper is scary. The greater number of my my fellow former countrymen catch a few thoughts like this and embed them into psyche. After all, politics isn't as important as the sacred hockey, is it?

You know, its funny there is a grand total of 2 media empires in Canada, one founded by a man that called himself a conservative and also stated that his media will of course be a reflection of his personal beliefs, the other run by a massive corporate body. I would like to know where this ridiculous notion of an anti-conservative media started, is it just another one of those uneducated wild sprays like the attacks on academia? I tend to see the similarity I suppose.

It is not very hard for the Liberals to stay in power; badmouth any up-and-comers, drop billions of dollars to assure enough votes to win an election, make a "rich climber" an instant cabinet minister. Somebody gets a real tape that could sink a party? Plant the seed. It's fake. Doesn't have to be true. RCMP investigate? Don't be silly. They got some of the money, and put it into a non-Mountie bank account. Lose a non-confidence vote?

A real tape? I guess you missed the part where the Conservatives admitted it had been altered right? What I found shocking out of the whole thing is that the guy was allowed to stay in the party. But go on, continue with your paranoid fantasies there highly entertaining.

The Liberals have nothing to fear by going to the polls. They have been caught doing some pretty egregious stuff and are still ahead in the polls; the Globe and Mail and Toronto Star say so, so it must be true. And who cares how the Albertans vote? The election is settled by the time the polls close in Alberta, and besides, they're all rednecks anyway.

Its odd, but this is always what it comes down to isn't it? Obviously democracy isn't the right system since its not giving you personally what you want. People in Alberta have (about) the same ability to influence the election as people anywhere else, yes there are small issues with vote distribution but that doesn't change the fact that everyone gets to vote, and just because they don't vote with you doesn't mean there vote shouldn't count.

Cynical?

No just reality. I feel sorry for those that don't realize it.

Inertia, propaganda, corruption, anti-americanism, un-examined biases, and when all else fails, sheer carelessness. Bet Liberal it's always the 'safe' bet.

Thats the Canadian Way.

Actually I would bet your not Cynical, just another angry loner who thinks they have it all figured out even though they have never even opened a book on history or politics. But let’s have fun with your little list anyways?

Inertia? Well considering the number one reason that anyone is going to vote for this group of "conservatives" is because they want a change in government after 15 years I would tend to think that the Inertia is pretty solidly in the Conservative corner.

Propaganda? Oh you mean like the PM is soft on pedophiles? Or like the Liberals are in bed with organized labour? Or maybe those great tapes? If any party in Canada is guilty of propaganda it’s not the liberals. Unless of course you can come up with some examples of this wonderful propaganda?

Corruption? Well it’s hard to be corrupt when you have no power, but there is no doubt there is corruption issues within the liberal party. Hardly surprising after 15 years in power and maybe a reason to change the government all on its own. Now if we could only get a realistic replacement we would be all set.

Anti-Americanism? Ok what exactly does this mean? Do we as a country have to always agree with the US on everything? Maybe always do what they say? Just roll over regardless of how big a mistake they make?

Unexamined Bias? What the hell does this even mean? What political party isn't biased?

Sheer Carelessness? Huh? Are you binging?

At the end of the day do you actually have any topic of some substance to post? I mean by that do you have an issue? Something that you think the Conservatives will do right that the Liberals are doing wrong? I would love to have a reason to vote for the Conservatives, but they give me NOTHING to vote for, and they show huge holes, and I am not voting for change for the sake of change when the party in power has done a very good job even if there are corruption issues.

[scribblet]

Trust me the Liberals will use the same old playbook they have being using for years and it will work like a charm on the Ontario voter.

Democracy in Canada is basically dead for all pretence and purpose.

Don't be surprise when this elections turnout is one of the lowest in history.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It will probably be the nastiest in history, according to the Globe and Mail last week, The Paul Martin Liberals are planning to run a negative election campaign that will unfold over three phases with most of their advertising budget earmarked for phase three, when they expect most Canadians to be listening.

[August1991]

Propaganda? Oh you mean like the PM is soft on pedophiles? Or like the Liberals are in bed with organized labour?

Yaro, you are welcome to demonize Stephen Harper, or take his comments out of context. That is what the Liberal Party (and yes, the media) will do in the upcoming campaign.

It will work in Ontario and the Liberals, according to the Toronto Star, may form a majority government.

IMV, Canadians will have re-elected for PM a senior member of the LPCQ - an institution which, in the words of Gomery, had two successive directors and many workers directly involved in illegal money transfers. That is apparent to almost everyone in French Quebec and many people in Western Canada.

The country will be fundamentally split. While you and others demonize Harper, what you fail to realize is that it is now the Liberal Party which is truly divisive.

You know, its funny there is a grand total of 2 media empires in Canada, one founded by a man that called himself a conservative and also stated that his media will of course be a reflection of his personal beliefs, the other run by a massive corporate body.

You forgot the CBC. Izzy Asper was a longtime Liberal. The Toronto Star is "independent", but Honderich was a Liberal's Liberal.

I won't engage in blaming the media but I will say that it makes the task of any outsider like Stephen Harper truly difficult. This is one reason that, excepting Joe Clark's nine months, Albertans generally don't do well in federal politics.

[sharkman]

Or maybe people see actual problems in the conservative party? Like a leader with the mind of a head of lettuce? Or the powerful minority in the party that are hardcore social conservatives? Or the foreign policy disaster in the making?

I don't like allot of things about the liberals, but honestly the more I hear some of you the more I realize that if these are the people that make up the current conservative movement then Canadians really do have something to fear, and to think before I came here I was planning on voting conservative...

Perfect? No, halfway competent? Yes. Preston was never too intellectual, Stockwell was a nutcase, and Stephen is a policy moron. It’s not the nature of conservatism that’s the problem its just that this current batch really is that bad, sorry but as we move along it becomes more and more obvious that some people just refuse to see the most obvious warts. To honest? Are you insane? No party has spread the retarded rhetoric around thicker then this incarnation of the Conservatives, PM is soft on Pedophiles? The Liberals are in bed with organized crime? They actually said these things...

Actually I would bet your not Cynical, just another angry loner who thinks they have it all figured out even though they have never even opened a book on history or politics. But let’s have fun with your little list anyways?

Yaro it's really hard to believe you. You state how Harper's mind is a head of lettuce, the CPC party 'shows huge holes' and has a hardcore minority that are (eek) social conservatives, and yet you were going to vote for them until you came here. It's a real stretch to say the least.

Like all the others who hate the CPC you are willing to overlook 12 years of Liberal governing filled with corruption, waste, arrogence and international embarrasment, and freak out over what the Conservatives might do if they are in power. Your logic speaks for itself.

I've read some of your posts, and you're kind of a one trick pony. This one is par for the course: You have this insulting sneer and talk down to whoever you decide to side swipe, pointing out all their faulty thinking and characterizing them with angry loner, paranoid fantasies, and not having anything of substance to offer.

Why is it that you have to put other people down so much? Perhaps you have some self esteem issues? Other than put others and the CPC down you are the one who didn't offer anything in the way of substance. Why don't you lose the attitude and treat others with a little bit of respect.

[Guest eureka]

The difference, August, is that Asper is a Liberal; Honderich a liberal.