Where are Ontario's vaccines?

[myata]

Ontario reports up to 100,000 vaccines administered daily. If the rate was sustained, in four months of the rollout (100 days) the entire adult population of the province would have been vaccinated. With a linear increase in the rate, half of the adult population (i.e. approximately, 5 million).

On the other hand, in my community it is Phase 2, registration open for ages 60+. Even in that group, I'm hearing that registration is less than reliable and scheduling can take weeks. Personally I don't know anyone under 70 who has received regular vaccination (i.e. via provincial or municipal program, not pharmacies).

Ontario vaccination progress site reports the total of 3.2 million vaccinations as of today, roughly the same as the population of the province over 60 (below). Yet as far as I know not everybody in that group received it and not by far.

What has been your experience so far? And where are Ontario's vaccines going as they cannot be seen anywhere around (other than in Toronto and AZ)?

Demographics of Ontario by age

Edited April 12, 2021 by myata

[Michael Hardner]

38 minutes ago, myata said:

 What has been your experience so far? And where are Ontario's vaccines going as they cannot be seen anywhere around (other than in Toronto and AZ)?

I defend the right to hold conflicting views that:
1) Governments have a difficult job against them, and we shouldn't judge too harshly and

2) They have done a bad job federally and provincially.

Just the communication alone has been pooched and fitting of a Saturday morning park clean-up party organized by stoned half-moms.  

But I wouldn't say they are lying either.

[myata]

1 minute ago, Michael Hardner said:

But I wouldn't say they are lying either.

It's only a question at  this point. Another is, how do we find that out.

[Shady]

I don’t think the province got to 100,000+ vaccinations per day until recently.  There wasn’t the necessary quantity of vaccines available in January, February and most of March to accomplish that level of vaccinations.

[OftenWrong]

Here in Smallville people are being told there is a long wait. I know a person in their 70's who had a hard time figuring out how to get an appointment. They did not have internet, or a cell phone with texting as required when they notify you. If you call by phone, all you get is an appointment at the pharmacy and they only have Astrazeneca.

So someone else had to help them get registered online and when they did, were told the appointment is in four weeks! That's a pretty long to wait for your turn at 75. Then they had to pick another date for the second shot, which is in 5 months.

And tell you what, tell you what. I'll bet 100 that in a month when the time comes, they will only offer Astrazeneca to seniors. Even if not for the first shot, they'll max it in for the second one. The way the authorititties are going on about it, they have no problem playing roulette with people's immune system.

[myata]

Maybe it would serve common good to have an independent oversight over the distribution process? And I don't mean another office with a $20 K monthly "czar". No bureaucrat paid for these vaccines we did.

 

[myata]

10 hours ago, Shady said:

I don’t think the province got to 100,000+ vaccinations per day until recently. 

It does not explain everything though. The site above reports 3.2 million as of now plus 100 K daily. The population of above 70 in the province is approx. 1.7 million. So where is the rest? And as we hear anecdotally, not everyone in that group has actually gotten it as of now.

The numbers do not seem to line up. We need a detailed, verifiable breakdown by location, purpose etc. If fact it was needed back in September (last year) when the planning and "exercises" began. But that would take another decade and billions and screw-ups.

[CITIZEN_2015]

I think Ontario over 60 population is 3 to 3.5 million alone though they have also vaccinated hundreds of thousands of health care workers (and rightly so) and more recently many were vaccinated in hotspots and some 1,5 million AstraZeneca given to those age 55 to 69. So the 3.2 million is not all those over 60. That said I agree it takes weeks to set up appointment for vaccine and many in age range 60 to 69 became eligible a week ago but have their appointment for vaccination scheduled for next months.

Edited April 13, 2021 by CITIZEN_2015

[Boges]

I don't know anyone over 60 that hasn't had the vaccine made available to them. My parents and inlaws all got their first dose. They all live in a Hotspot though. 

The cruel irony is that these Hotspots will need to get the vaccine first. The plan is to open it up to people 18+. Not sure if that's exactly possible yet. And then you have people in areas that have a more manageable spread get their entire economies shutdown AND put to the back of the vaccine line. Double Edge sword of resentment. 

 

[myata]

20 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

That said I agree it takes weeks to set up appointment for vaccine and many in age range 60 to 69 became eligible a week ago but have their appointment for vaccination scheduled for next months.

Indeed let's take a snapshot as of yesterday.

Vaccinated: 3.2 million.

Phase 1 (70+ and priority): 1.7 million + some hundred thousand.

Phase 2(60+): I personally know nobody in this group as of now, except self-appointment with AZ that can't be many.

That makes, as of now, less than 1.7 (by how much we don't know but not everyone in this group has gotten it yet by anecdotal stories) + maybe a few hundred thousand. That's a gap of at least a million. Where?

[myata]

4 minutes ago, Boges said:

And then you have people in areas that have a more manageable spread get their entire economies shutdown AND put to the back of the vaccine line. Double Edge sword of resentment.

True. Also "made available" does not necessarily mean "vaccinated as of now" as scheduling can take weeks so I'm not sure how the math adds up, as above. And now the "hotspots" throwing wrench into even attempts to keep track. Do we have no hope of knowing at this point where the vaccines are going in the province?

[Boges]

33 minutes ago, myata said:

True. Also "made available" does not necessarily mean "vaccinated as of now" as scheduling can take weeks so I'm not sure how the math adds up, as above. And now the "hotspots" throwing wrench into even attempts to keep track. Do we have no hope of knowing at this point where the vaccines are going in the province?

Anecdotally, I have not heard that. Perhaps in more rural areas. But if you're over 50 in the Hot Spots, you could get a vaccine this week. 

[myata]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

Anecdotally, I have not heard that. Perhaps in more rural areas. But if you're over 50 in the Hot Spots, you could get a vaccine this week. 

"Hotspots" is a new invention and as I understand, mostly in Toronto. In my area it's 60+ from last Friday or so, and I don't know anyone personally who has received it.

[myata]

GTA is already ahead in Ontario's vaccination progress: 46% of delivered vaccines in the province vs. 42% population. And the "hotspot" approach will make it more unequal. Can it be justified?

[Boges]

41 minutes ago, myata said:

"Hotspots" is a new invention and as I understand, mostly in Toronto. In my area it's 60+ from last Friday or so, and I don't know anyone personally who has received it.

It's the most important factor. The Provinces ICU capacity is being effected by the proportion of people getting sick in these areas. 

[Boges]

18 minutes ago, myata said:

GTA is already ahead in Ontario's vaccination progress: 46% of delivered vaccines in the province vs. 42% population. And the "hotspot" approach will make it more unequal. Can it be justified?

100% it can be justified. 

Unlike in the early days of the pandemic where people in LTC homes and the elderly were bearing the human cost of COVID-19, now it's younger people who work essential front line jobs. People that live in multi-generational homes in densely urban and suburban areas of the province. 

Those are the people that need the vaccine and not 60+ retirees in rural Ontario. 

The drop in death rate is an indicator that people who were dying in the early days of the virus are no longer dying. The increase in ICU admissions is an indication that more young people are getting much sicker with the proliferation of these variants.  

Edited April 13, 2021 by Boges

[Shady]

I have no problem if Toronto is vaccinated much quicker than the rest of the province.  If you fix Toronto, you pretty much fix the province anyways.

[myata]

28 minutes ago, Boges said:

It's the most important factor. The Provinces ICU capacity is being effected by the proportion of people getting sick in these areas. 

ICU capacity is determined by many factors, including effectiveness of health policy, hospital administration and others, but the vaccines are paid for by the taxpayers who deserve and have the right to demand fairness, clarity and transparency in these decisions.

[myata]

11 minutes ago, Shady said:

I have no problem if Toronto is vaccinated much quicker than the rest of the province.  If you fix Toronto, you pretty much fix the province anyways.

Sorry but no, with inept and inefficient management you aren't going to fix anything because vaccine immunity has limited term and it'll be all over again.

[Boges]

Just now, myata said:

ICU capacity is determined by many factors, including effectiveness of health policy, hospital administration and others, but the vaccines are paid for by the taxpayers who deserve and have the right to demand fairness, clarity and transparency in these decisions.

I'm sure those taxpayers would prefer to be done away with these Provincewide lockdowns. 

These areas are what's driving these lockdowns. Hospitals in Peel and Toronto reaching capacity and flying patients out to other regions. And because they had effectively been locked down since November, people are also leaving these regions and going to other regions. 

I suspect, had emphasis been put to distributing vaccines in  these areas earlier in the winter, we wouldn't be experiencing such a widespread shutdown. 

[Boges]

1 minute ago, myata said:

Sorry but no, with inept and inefficient management you aren't going to fix anything because vaccine immunity has limited term and it'll be all over again.

Cite? 

People who are getting vaccinated now are getting appointments for July. This will be going on until September. I just hope enough people have enough protection to ensure severe illness is minimized. 

[Boges]

Note that the goal of vaccination is less to reduce spread but to reduce severe sickness. So even if someone gets COVID-19, it will keep them out of the hospital. 

We'll be dealing with Mask Wearing in public places for at least the rest of the year, I reckon. 

[myata]

1 hour ago, Boges said:

Cite? 

People who are getting vaccinated now are getting appointments for July. This will be going on until September. I just hope enough people have enough protection to ensure severe illness is minimized. 

Feel free to google it's no secret. Given that the virus moves freely with people the idea to limit the spread by postal code isn't very smart imv. It will just move to the next, less protected area. There's way more densely populated areas in the country than a few postal codes so again smacks of ad hoc, stick a band aid solution in place of a solid plan and effective execution.

[Boges]

2 minutes ago, myata said:

Feel free to google it's no secret. Given that the virus moves freely with people the idea to limit the spread by postal code isn't very smart imv. It will just move to the next, less protected area. There's way more densely populated areas in the country than a few postal codes so again smacks of ad hoc, stick a band aid solution in place of a solid plan and effective execution.

A few? It's the most populated part of Canada. 

It's also got some of the most disadvantaged people who are way more likely to get COVID-19 and have a negative outcome. 

 

[myata]

2 minutes ago, Boges said:

It's also got some of the most disadvantaged people who are way more likely to get COVID-19 and have a negative outcome.

Sure we can explain it away, and still it wouldn't work as it has no solid rational foundation supported by necessary resources. This is more for the TV that still tries to preach to the virus. Good luck.