Ontario Poll Tracker

[betsy]

On 6/4/2018 at 3:30 PM, PIK said:

 With ford there is a chance to get back on track.

 

And, if he does a good job at it........the federal Liberals will be in big trouble in the coming election.  According to Nick Nanos,  just the word "Liberal" makes people see red.....no pun intended.

[angrypenguin]

No updates with the CBC poll this morning. Probabilities were only very slightly changed with this poll analyzer dude: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/last-day-of-campaign.html

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker just updated with the new Leger poll

 

87.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

3.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.8%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

5.8%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

[betsy]

PC

38.0%

 

NDP

36.5%

 

LIB

19.1%

 

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

[angrypenguin]

LOL. Liberals projected to win 1 seat.

 

BAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHA

[turningrite]

As I've said previously, don't rely on the polls alone to predict the outcome here. About one-fifth of voters haven't yet decided and yesterday's news of the lawsuit Ford now faces could have an impact. This election will be decided on vote splits in a couple dozen ridings. I haven't put any money on the outcome although prior to yesterday I believed the trends favoured Ford's PCs. Now, I'm not so sure. I think that if the PCs had selected Elliot or Mulroney as their leader, this election would long ago have been decided. 

[OftenWrong]

4 hours ago, angrypenguin said:

Liberals projected to win 1 seat.

"If recent polls are correct, the Liberals look poised to drop from the governing party in Ontario to losing their official party status."

Link

Pretty shocking how far they've fallen. Final result of unfettered Liberalism...

[angrypenguin]

1 hour ago, turningrite said:

As I've said previously, don't rely on the polls alone to predict the outcome here. About one-fifth of voters haven't yet decided and yesterday's news of the lawsuit Ford now faces could have an impact. This election will be decided on vote splits in a couple dozen ridings. I haven't put any money on the outcome although prior to yesterday I believed the trends favoured Ford's PCs. Now, I'm not so sure. I think that if the PCs had selected Elliot or Mulroney as their leader, this election would long ago have been decided. 

If you look at any of the polls you'll see the overwhelming majority of undecided voters are Liberal or NDP. With the Liberals projected to win 1 seat, then, well, whoop. The NDP doesn't have enough support anyways to "win".

Edited June 6, 2018 by angrypenguin

[taxme]

8 hours ago, betsy said:

 

And, if he does a good job at it........the federal Liberals will be in big trouble in the coming election.  According to Nick Nanos,  just the word "Liberal" makes people see red.....no pun intended.

As long as the Conservatives stick to a program of more freedom, less government and less taxes they should do quite well as a government and be able to stay in power for decades to come. If Ford will work for the people and not the elite or special interest groups who are only out for themselves and money and power. But that is all up to them. Canadians need a commons sense and logical government and not an emotional and foolish talking one. 

I know that just hearing the name liberal myself makes me always want to go to the bathroom and upchuck. Just watching all the reaction by the liberals in America after Trump became President and how they have constantly attacked and mocked Trump ever since day one tells me that liberals are not for we the people. Some of their so-called liberal comedians are a bunch of sore losing classless scum. Calling the Presidents daughter a "feckless "c" word should tell us all as to where liberals stand on morality and decency. They truly do give liberalism a bad name. Pun accepted. Better dead than red.   

[capricorn]

Quote

The final Ipsos poll of the campaign, conducted between June 3 and 5, points to a three-point Progressive Conservative lead province-wide and a double-digit lead in the 905. That’s majority territory for Ford, who has seemingly emerged unscathed from two days of high-profile family drama centering around a lawsuit launched by his sister-in-law.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford-pc-majority/

In the end, I think voters are looking not only at the leader, but the team that comes with them and what their cabinet would look like.

[taxme]

1 hour ago, angrypenguin said:

If you look at any of the polls you'll see the overwhelming majority of undecided voters are Liberal or NDP. With the Liberals projected to win 1 seat, then, well, whoop. The NDP doesn't have enough support anyways to "win".

It's fun to play and try to predict an outcome but it still means nothing at all. The only poll that is going to count is the one on election day.  I predict and hope that Ford will win. LOL. 

[taxme]

1 minute ago, capricorn said:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford-pc-majority/

In the end, I think voters are looking not only at the leader, but the team that comes with them and what their cabinet would look like.

Easily said than done. It would be quite the task to take that project on. 

[betsy]

49 minutes ago, capricorn said:

https://globalnews.ca/news/4256612/ontario-election-ipsos-poll-doug-ford-pc-majority/

In the end, I think voters are looking not only at the leader, but the team that comes with them and what their cabinet would look like.

Elliott is a big asset!

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker just updated with Ipsos info

 

Probability of winning

 

87.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

3.3%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.5%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

6.2%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

[OftenWrong]

Sickening. That people would vote in such a reactionary way raises questions about the value of democracy as we know it. Thanks to the greedy, moronic leadership of the PC party we now face giving them a majority in this province, without a platform and with a premier who is totally unknown. Or rather, what little is known about him is hardly impressive, to say the least. PC party leadership thought they could pull a fast one. They knew the government would be theirs, and somebody wanted it to be someone other than Patrick Brown. Who that is, I don't know but I have my suspicions. Obviously they never expected that Doug Ford would step up to the podium, like a bogeyman coming out of the closet.

Yet this, apparently, makes no difference to voters in Ontario according to the polls. Starting tomorrow, Ontarians venture into completely uncharted territory, adrift, without a plan and with no direction. And they will do it BY MAJORITY.

I'd say an Andrea Horwath Ontario would be the most frightening. PC Majority follows a close second, if taken on a wing and a prayer. PC minority is not likely to stand. NDP most horrific, either as majority or minority. 

Not a done deal until tomorrow... no matter what, Ontario shall see a new dawn.

Edited June 7, 2018 by OftenWrong
sp

[capricorn]

36 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

Starting tomorrow, Ontarians venture into completed uncharted territory, adrift, ithout a plan and with no direction. And they will do it BY MAJORITY.

Just because a political party has a plan/platform doesn't ensure the province has direction. There have been many instances where governments have set aside their plans or were unable to deliver for various reasons. Some never intended to implement those promises in the first place. Proof is look at the Federal Liberals.

In Ontario's case, a majority PC win is necessary to avert a NDP/Liberal coalition and to negate uncertainty. It looks to me like this is where we are headed. I for one would be more than pleased with that outcome.

Edited June 6, 2018 by capricorn

[angrypenguin]

88.3%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

3.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.4%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

5.4%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

[angrypenguin]

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/final-projections-for-ontario-2018.html

[OftenWrong]

 

2 hours ago, capricorn said:

Just because a political party has a plan/platform doesn't ensure the province has direction. There have been many instances where governments have set aside their plans or were unable to deliver for various reasons. Some never intended to implement those promises in the first place. Proof is look at the Federal Liberals.

In Ontario's case, a majority PC win is necessary to avert a NDP/Liberal coalition and to negate uncertainty. It looks to me like this is where we are headed. I for one would be more than pleased with that outcome.

There's little question this is where we are headed, but I cannot see Doug Ford as a vote for certainty. In fact to me he's the least certain of all 3 candidates, having little to no political history and no time to explain his vision as newly appointed leader of the PC Party, let alone what he will do as Premier, and how he intends to do it. He hasn't even had time to think about it himself. We know where Horwath stands, she is the devil incarnate. Voters have turned their backs on Wynne, she is political chandala.

That's why I'm having a hard time understanding the rationale for the polls. Voters seem to be more affected by emotion and group think, than making an informed choice.

Help, my faith in democracy is waning

[angrypenguin]

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/

 

Even poor and young people will vote for Ford. Goes to show the Ontario electorate does have a brain after all.

[angrypenguin]

3 minutes ago, OftenWrong said:

 

There's little question this is where we are headed, but I cannot see Doug Ford as a vote for certainty. In fact to me he's the least certain of all 3 candidates, having little to no political history and no time to explain his vision as newly appointed leader of the PC Party, let alone what he will do as Premier, and how he intends to do it. He hasn't even had time to think about it himself. We know where Horwath stands, she is the devil incarnate. Voters have turned their backs on Wynne, she is political chandala.

That's why I'm having a hard time understanding the rationale for the polls. Voters seem to be more affected by emotion and group think, than making an informed choice.

Help, my faith in democracy is waning

Oh please.

[taxme]

6 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Sickening. That people would vote in such a reactionary way raises questions about the value of democracy as we know it. Thanks to the greedy, moronic leadership of the PC party we now face giving them a majority in this province, without a platform and with a premier who is totally unknown. Or rather, what little is known about him is hardly impressive, to say the least. PC party leadership thought they could pull a fast one. They knew the government would be theirs, and somebody wanted it to be someone other than Patrick Brown. Who that is, I don't know but I have my suspicions. Obviously they never expected that Doug Ford would step up to the podium, like a bogeyman coming out of the closet.

Yet this, apparently, makes no difference to voters in Ontario according to the polls. Starting tomorrow, Ontarians venture into completely uncharted territory, adrift, without a plan and with no direction. And they will do it BY MAJORITY.

I'd say an Andrea Horwath Ontario would be the most frightening. PC Majority follows a close second, if taken on a wing and a prayer. PC minority is not likely to stand. NDP most horrific, either as majority or minority. 

Not a done deal until tomorrow... no matter what, Ontario shall see a new dawn.

WTH can Ford do any worse to Ontario than what the liberals and the NDP and the red tories have done to that province already over the past several decades? One can only hope that Ford is a real and true conservative and not like those conservatives of the past who called themselves conservatives but were really just another bunch of liberals in conservative clothing. If Ford does become premier we all should know by now that the Canadian lieberal lying MSM will do whatever they can to ride Ford's ass every day of his premiership just like the lieberals in the American MSM are doing to Trump every day since Trump became President. Trump does not care what the media thinks of him and let us hope that Ford won't let the Canadian media try to influence him in anyway. What our Canadian liberal media needs to be told by Ford is to got to hell. Attack and mock them and enjoy watching them squirm whine and cry like the crybabies that they are. They don't like you Ford already so show them how much you dislike them. You are the boss now. All they can do now is just sit there and sulk. Works for me. 

[taxme]

3 hours ago, angrypenguin said:

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/ekos-predicts-pc-majority/

 

Even poor and young people will vote for Ford. Goes to show the Ontario electorate does have a brain after all.

Either they do vote for Ford or they can vote liberal or NDP and stay poor for another five years. It is up to them. 

[taxme]

3 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

 

There's little question this is where we are headed, but I cannot see Doug Ford as a vote for certainty. In fact to me he's the least certain of all 3 candidates, having little to no political history and no time to explain his vision as newly appointed leader of the PC Party, let alone what he will do as Premier, and how he intends to do it. He hasn't even had time to think about it himself. We know where Horwath stands, she is the devil incarnate. Voters have turned their backs on Wynne, she is political chandala.

That's why I'm having a hard time understanding the rationale for the polls. Voters seem to be more affected by emotion and group think, than making an informed choice.

Help, my faith in democracy is waning

If Ford does not win then democracy will be dead in Ontario for good. Just hold your nose and vote for Ford. The people gave Wynne the premiers job and look what she has done to Ontario. The NDP will be no better. You have no choice but to vote for Ford. Ontario needs your help to make Ontario great again. 

[H10]

17 hours ago, angrypenguin said:

CBC poll tracker just updated with the new Leger poll

 

87.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

3.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.8%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

5.8%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

The polls don't count for strategic voters who will switch NDP from Liberal come election day to block ford.  It also doesn't account for undecided voters.  Historically in Ontario, voters have gone left.  The conservatives have a 40% ceiling because 60% of Ontarians are leftwing progressives.