Ontario Poll Tracker

[angrypenguin]

12 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

FWIW - the numbers haven't ever shown Ford close to 50% chance of majority.  It has ranged from 70% to 95%.

Not quite.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/how-much-uncertainty-is-there-in-this.html

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, angrypenguin said:

Not quite.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/how-much-uncertainty-is-there-in-this.html

First of all - I only have heard of this guy through this election.  His background is not what I would associate with polling experts, but let's see how he does. 

Secondly, the numbers I am referring to come from the CBC tracker.  What on that page tells you Ford has less than a 75%.  This person says:

 As I'm writing this article, the CBC is saying the NDP has a 12% chance of winning the most seats (8.4% for a majority, 3.6% for a minority). My model on the other hand is currently giving the NDP around 24% chances (and that's a sharp drop compared to the >40% of a few days ago, before polls started showing a slight PC rebound). 

[angrypenguin]

31 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

First of all - I only have heard of this guy through this election.  His background is not what I would associate with polling experts, but let's see how he does. 

Secondly, the numbers I am referring to come from the CBC tracker.  What on that page tells you Ford has less than a 75%.  This person says:

 As I'm writing this article, the CBC is saying the NDP has a 12% chance of winning the most seats (8.4% for a majority, 3.6% for a minority). My model on the other hand is currently giving the NDP around 24% chances (and that's a sharp drop compared to the >40% of a few days ago, before polls started showing a slight PC rebound). 

You're right re: that other guy, but he does bring up good points against Eric Grenier. We'll have to see who is more accurate on June 7th

 

That said though, for the CBC, it dropped as low as 70% at one point, but I don't know how to pull up historical numbers and it's one of the reasons i've been copying and pasting the results on a daily basis in our thread here

[Centerpiece]

1 hour ago, angrypenguin said:

You're right re: that other guy, but he does bring up good points against Eric Grenier. We'll have to see who is more accurate on June 7th

 

That said though, for the CBC, it dropped as low as 70% at one point, but I don't know how to pull up historical numbers and it's one of the reasons i've been copying and pasting the results on a daily basis in our thread here

I wouldn't put too much stock in the other poll aggregator - Brian Baguet (BB). I'm certainly not a CBC fan but I think Grenier has done a good job of smoothing out the peaks and valleys with his aggregation formulas. BB had two major complaints about Grenier/CBC and I believe both complaints have major flaws.

1) CBC gives more weight to recent polls while BB gives equal weight to all polls in a week. That misses the swings that occur with significant campaign "happenings" like debates or major news revelations..

2) CBC gave more weight to the most recent Forum poll.  That's because it had a much larger sampling. CBC gives more weight to larger samplings. It seems BB does not.

[angrypenguin]

13 minutes ago, Centerpiece said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in the other poll aggregator - Brian Baguet (BB). I'm certainly not a CBC fan but I think Grenier has done a good job of smoothing out the peaks and valleys with his aggregation formulas. BB had two major complaints about Grenier/CBC and I believe both complaints have major flaws.

1) CBC gives more weight to recent polls while BB gives equal weight to all polls in a week. That misses the swings that occur with significant campaign "happenings" like debates or major news revelations..

2) CBC gave more weight to the most recent Forum poll.  That's because it had a much larger sampling. CBC gives more weight to larger samplings. It seems BB does not.

Ok so on the Forum poll, I do sort of agree with BB here. Take a look at the last Forum poll which showed a LARGE lead with the NDP versus all of the other polls. For whatever reason, including with the last Federal election, Forum seems to be quite off the mark. When it was in the PCs favor with respect to the last Federal election, I was pointing to that and my hopes were high as a result, but it turns out the polling data was not consistent with the final election. I'm not sure if there are other reasons as to why BB is discounting the Forum poll, but there was a huge swing in results from the last Forum poll versus the more recent one.

With #1, I can see Grenier and BB's approach as both valid in their own way. While we are all digesting news as quickly as humanly possible and making up our minds, there is usually a lag with most voters who barely follow elections. Because of that lag, I would seem to agree with BB on this one. You're assuming (And Grenier is assuming) that voters are aware of political news as soon as they come out (within 24 hours). I'm not so sure that's right, but as I have mentioned, we'll see who is more accurate on election day!

[Michael Hardner]

55 minutes ago, Centerpiece said:

I wouldn't put too much stock in the other poll aggregator - Brian Baguet (BB). I'm certainly not a CBC fan but I think Grenier has done a good job of smoothing out the peaks and valleys with his aggregation formulas. BB had two major complaints about Grenier/CBC and I believe both complaints have major flaws.

You're looking at this the right way.   I suspect Grenier has expert help.  Baquet's background leads me to think he's more of a tinkerer than an expert.

[angrypenguin]

Latest poll tracker update including most recent EKOS poll.

PC - 37.2%

NDP 37.1%

Probability of winning

 

85.4%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

5.0%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

6.3%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

2.8%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

Edited June 1, 2018 by angrypenguin

[angrypenguin]

Ladies and gentlemen,

 

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/is-ndp-vote-really-that-inefficient.html

 

Thoughts on this post?

[OftenWrong]

On 5/31/2018 at 9:13 PM, Michael Hardner said:

In other words.  If the polls work for my guy then they are accurate and great.  If not, it's leftist propaganda and fake news.

 

FWIW - the numbers haven't ever shown Ford close to 50% chance of majority.  It has ranged from 70% to 95%.

That's right, as pointed out several times, the polls always showed at least 70% chance of majority, and now rebounding back up again. These are the weighted polls.

Leftist propaganda? Sorry to disappoint, but the reason is far more mundane than a conspiracy. Leftist silliness comes to mind, or leftist stupidity.

Lest we forget... these messages are brought to you courtesy of the people who add, when they should subtract.

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, OftenWrong said:

Sorry to disappoint, but the reason is far more mundane than a conspiracy. Leftist silliness comes to mind, or leftist stupidity.

So they're accidentally putting Ford out front ?  That's even crazier than the original conspiracy theory.

[OftenWrong]

7 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

So they're accidentally putting Ford out front ?  That's even crazier than the original conspiracy theory.

How you draw your conclusions sometimes is beyond me.

[Michael Hardner]

6 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

How you draw your conclusions sometimes is beyond me.

Let's have a look:

 

Quote

 

1) Leftist propaganda? Sorry to disappoint, but the reason is far more mundane than a conspiracy. Leftist silliness comes to mind, or leftist stupidity.

2) Lest we forget... these messages are brought to you courtesy of the people who add, when they should subtract.

 

1) It is other people on here who assert that polls are skewed due to leftist/mainstream media, not I.  No disappointment happening on my end of the phone.  "Leftist silliness" puts Doug Ford ahead ?  Or Behind ?  Or ...

2) The CBC is the NDP

The whole thing starts with people not liking poll results, then accusing leftists of cooking them... and when the same people show the conservatives again... all is well.  Or in the case of your post... it.... it... frankly I don't know.  Your post is like a purple unicorn who chewed on his own tail then morphed into a golden donut.

[angrypenguin]

New Abacus polling data just in and added to the CBC poll tracking info.

As per the CBC poll tracker:

New results

 

77.1%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

8.0%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

9.8%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

4.5%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

Edited June 3, 2018 by angrypenguin

[Michael Hardner]

From my university statistics, the first thing I look at when I care to analyze a poll is the methodology.  The CBC poll tracker doesn't have one listed.

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker just added Pollara/Maclean data poll. ->this last one is significant due to methodologies used.

 

79.3%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

7.5%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

4.2%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

8.2%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

Edited June 3, 2018 by angrypenguin

[Thinkinoutsidethebox]

It's no wonder voter turnout is so low... 

After reading this and listening to taxpayer funded "experts" state their point of view on taxpayer funded polsters Swag results (as stated by their disclaimers) and discussions on "strategic" voting, vote splitting and politians padding their platforms with fake promises to win votes why should we even bother? 

Polling during an electoral campaign is just a legal form of meddling. 

Polling during electoral campaigns should be banned, candidates run based on their original platforms, beliefs and track records, voters select who best represents their interests, simple as that.. 

Why is it human nature to over complicate everything? 

[angrypenguin]

Interesting post this AM.

 

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/06/with-3-days-to-go-in-ontario-election.html

 

CBC poll tracker has not updated for today yet.

[PIK]

One thing for sure a NDP win is going to end what is left in this province. I just can't believe people can be so fucking stupid or just down right greedy. The unions have had it very good for 15 yrs and now it is time for them to back off. So many people have suffered that last decade,but unions people seem not to care, it is all about them

[turningrite]

3 hours ago, PIK said:

One thing for sure a NDP win is going to end what is left in this province. I just can't believe people can be so fucking stupid or just down right greedy. The unions have had it very good for 15 yrs and now it is time for them to back off. So many people have suffered that last decade,but unions people seem not to care, it is all about them

I too fear the consequences of silly policies from the NDP but what is Ford offering? Some economists say his platform announcements would if carried out generate the biggest deficit among the three main parties. If the PCs had stuck to a mainstream leader like Elliot or Mulroney, they'd probably be cruising to a massive majority at this point. Instead, they're tied in the polls with the NDP. 

[Centerpiece]

5 hours ago, PIK said:

One thing for sure a NDP win is going to end what is left in this province. I just can't believe people can be so fucking stupid or just down right greedy. The unions have had it very good for 15 yrs and now it is time for them to back off. So many people have suffered that last decade,but unions people seem not to care, it is all about them

Funny you mention greedy. I was thinking this morning along a similar line. The Right is often called greedy at the corporate level - rich companies and CEOs - runaway capitalism - that sort of thing. But this election more than any I remember plays to individual greed - the "what's in it for me" attitude/entitlement. Started by the Liberals and doubled-down by the NDP, it's a schmorgasbord of "free" baubles in the window. I'm so damned disappointed that so many people are falling for the NDP "free" schtick - or are just plain greedy. There's a lot of buyer's remorse already at the federal level - so all I can say is.....be careful what you wish for.

[PIK]

2 hours ago, turningrite said:

I too fear the consequences of silly policies from the NDP but what is Ford offering? Some economists say his platform announcements would if carried out generate the biggest deficit among the three main parties. If the PCs had stuck to a mainstream leader like Elliot or Mulroney, they'd probably be cruising to a massive majority at this point. Instead, they're tied in the polls with the NDP. 

I agree about having another leader, but any other party right now is going to be worse. With ford there is a chance to get back on track.

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker updated now

 

Probability of winning

 

84.8%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

4.5%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

3.1%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

7.1%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker updated

 

86.5%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

5.2%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.8%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

4.9%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

[turningrite]

These days, polling has become a precariously inexact science. It's main role may be to predict trends rather than results. The actual election will probably come down to about two dozen ridings where vote splits will determine the ultimate winner. As polling indicates a slight improvement in Liberal fortunes, Wynne's decent debate performance (she is the best speaker among the three leaders and was less irritating than either Ford or Horwath) and her early concession speech seem to have strengthened Ford's hand in the swing ridings. So, the strategy backfired and now the Liberals seem to be backpedalling, focusing on demonizing Ford in order to get the minority legislature they supposedly prefer. Unless the NDP can siphon about a quarter of the 20% support now held by the Liberals, Ford will probably win a majority. But there are other factors in play, including overall voter turnout and whether younger voters will actually show up to vote. If only 50% of eligible voters cast ballots, Ford's likely the next premier. The trends are on Ford's side. I hope he has a great big thank you to Wynne written into his victory speech. 

Edited June 5, 2018 by turningrite

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker updated with Pollara poll. Conservatives pulling ahead.

 

88.1%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

3.6%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

2.5%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

5.2%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority