Ontario Poll Tracker

[angrypenguin]

As we get closer to June 7th, thought I'd start a thread tracking polls to consolidate.

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/4236201/ontario-election-poll-ndp-soften-pc-lead/

[betsy]

Pundits are saying that even when the NDP and PC were tied - the PC would've still have a majority of seats.

 

Incidentally - another poll was given by Nanos yesterday on Powerplay.  This one is about the Federal Government.  For the first time, PC takes the lead.  Nanos says that the very name "Liberal" seems to sound negative to people.

 

 

Horvath's government is really, really scarey!  It'll be worse than the Liberals.  I think with the NDP surge, people are scrutinizing the platform of Horvath........ and they're beginning to realize she's living in a dream world - a dream world for her, but a terrible nightmare for Ontarians.

But.......let's not be complacent about this.   Let's not assume it's a slam dunk.   Make sure we all go out, and vote!

 

Edited May 29, 2018 by betsy

[Centerpiece]

Here's the actual CBC Poll Tracker.....

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/poll-tracker/

[Michael Hardner]

To those of you left-wing conspiracy types, please note that the CBC tracker has always shown a PC majority and still does so.

[angrypenguin]

48 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

To those of you left-wing conspiracy types, please note that the CBC tracker has always shown a PC majority and still does so.

On what basis are you assuming that there is such a group?

A poll is a poll is a poll, that's all it is.

[angrypenguin]

Where the hell is the data behind this poll?

https://globalnews.ca/news/4236201/ontario-election-poll-ndp-soften-pc-lead/

I've looked everywhere. I don't want the fluffy all up stuff in the article, I'm looking for the detailed report.

[Michael Hardner]

35 minutes ago, angrypenguin said:

On what basis are you assuming that there is such a group?

A poll is a poll is a poll, that's all it is.

A group that decries fake news when they don't like what it is saying ?  Jeez, Penguin, stick around and watch ! 

[Michael Hardner]

By the way, I see selective acceptance of MSM information as the ultimate sign of vanity in a public individual.  You can see it everywhere here and in my forms.

 

One is to decry "the people" as sheep or stupid when they make a choice you don't like, and lauding them when they make a choice that you do.  I like to focus on ensuring we agree on quality information.  The best conservatives pay attention to political polls, but also budgets & deficits, laws and service levels which are hard information.  The best liberals pay attention to polls querying public attitudes, economic statistics, constitutional discussions and service levels.

[OftenWrong]

3 hours ago, betsy said:

Horvath's government is really, really scarey!  It'll be worse than the Liberals.  I think with the NDP surge, people are scrutinizing the platform of Horvath........ and they're beginning to realize she's living in a dream world - a dream world for her, but a terrible nightmare for Ontarians.

I basically agree, would prefer a Liberal or PC government over the NDP.

[capricorn]

30 minutes ago, angrypenguin said:

Where the hell is the data behind this poll?

https://globalnews.ca/news/4236201/ontario-election-poll-ndp-soften-pc-lead/

I've looked everywhere. I don't want the fluffy all up stuff in the article, I'm looking for the detailed report.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Global-News-Ontario-Vote-Horserace-Poll-May-28-2018

[CITIZEN_2015]

It seems Ontario Conservatives are ahead at 37% and NDP close second at 34% and Liberal way behind at 22.

I don't know who to vote. NDP brings back the dark memories of Bob Rae and Conservatives reminds me of corrupt scandalist Harper and the Liberals have done so many bad deeds past many years in Ontario. Maybe best vote would be a protest vote. None of the above.

Edited May 29, 2018 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

38 minutes ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

It seems Ontario Conservatives are ahead at 37% and NDP close second at 34% and Liberal way behind at 22.

I don't know who to vote. NDP brings back the dark memories of Bob Rae and Conservatives reminds me of corrupt scandalist Harper and the Liberals have done so many bad deeds past many years in Ontario. Maybe best vote would be a protest vote. None of the above.

Corrupt scandalist Harper? Are you kidding me? If you're even comparing Harper to the Liberal days of the sponsorship scandal, please do tell, how much did both governments cost the taxpayor? You're literally comparing a prostitute's sexual number versus a virgins. They're not even on the same planet.

[angrypenguin]

https://innovativeresearch.ca/election-tracking-wave-4-the-ndp-move-ahead/

[CITIZEN_2015]

6 minutes ago, angrypenguin said:

Corrupt scandalist Harper? Are you kidding me? If you're even comparing Harper to the Liberal days of the sponsorship scandal, please do tell, how much did both governments cost the taxpayor? You're literally comparing a prostitute's sexual number versus a virgins. They're not even on the same planet.

I can write a book about the scandals and corruptions during Harper's regime especially last 4 years when he had a majority. Happiest day of my life when he and his regime was kicked out of office in a disgraceful manner in October 2015 by intelligent voters.

[angrypenguin]

Just now, CITIZEN_2015 said:

I can write a book about the scandals and corruptions during Harper's regime especially last 4 years when he had a majority. Happiest day of my life when he and his regime was kicked out of office in a disgraceful manner in October 2015 by intelligent voters.

Sure, write said book, and I may just take the time to write the book on the Liberals track record. Idiots voted him out of office.

[CITIZEN_2015]

5 minutes ago, angrypenguin said:

 Idiots voted him out of office.

You just called close to  40% of Canadians idiots. Shame on you as the only idiot here is you who makes such a call.

Edited May 29, 2018 by CITIZEN_2015

[angrypenguin]

2 hours ago, CITIZEN_2015 said:

You just called close to  40% of Canadians idiots. Shame on you as the only idiot here is you who makes such a call.

 

Too bad, I was looking forward to reading your so called novel. Well, technically, that number was a lot higher than 40% if you really think it through, but clearly numbers aren't your forte.

And based on today's poll, calling those individuals an idiot is actually not that far off, given the fact that many Liberal supporters have changed their voting intentions.

Edited May 30, 2018 by angrypenguin

[angrypenguin]

May 30th info has come in. Two new polls added in the last 27 mins.

 

New info is:

 

71.9%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

11.6%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

9.2%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

6.1%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

[angrypenguin]

So at what point do the Liberals lose their status as a party in the House? E.g. how many seats does one have to be an official party in the House?

[angrypenguin]

May 31st projections: http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2018/05/projections-update-of-may-31st-2018.html

[angrypenguin]

New poll just released. (not accounted for at the CBC poll tracker as of yet) May 31st, 1023am EST

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2848/ontario-horserace-may-28/

[angrypenguin]

CBC poll tracker updated. May 31st, 1041am with Forum research poll results.

 

Probability of winning

 

81.5%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

5.6%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

8.4%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

3.6%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

[betsy]

10 hours ago, angrypenguin said:

CBC poll tracker updated. May 31st, 1041am with Forum research poll results.

 

Probability of winning

 

81.5%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

5.6%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

8.4%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

3.6%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority

 

I know......I know what I've said about polls.....

.....but this is still exciting, nevertheless.  

Edited June 1, 2018 by betsy

[Michael Hardner]

In other words.  If the polls work for my guy then they are accurate and great.  If not, it's leftist propaganda and fake news.

 

FWIW - the numbers haven't ever shown Ford close to 50% chance of majority.  It has ranged from 70% to 95%.

[angrypenguin]

Updated today:

 

82.9%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning a majority

4.9%

Probability of the Progressive Conservatives winning the most seats but not a majority

7.8%

Probability of the NDP winning a majority

3.3%

Probability of the NDP winning the most seats but not a majority