2019: Trudeau Wins

[August1991]

Quote

On 5/29/2017 at 1:50 AM, hernanday said:

I believe that the conservatives knew they'd lose the 2019 election.  Trudeau is too popular right now and enjoys too much support to lose the next election, Harper imploded his own party.  That is why their best canidates like Kenny and Mackay chose not to run.  The best candidate the conservatives had was probably bernier or chong.  Sheer's election has guaranteed that Trudeau will win again.

1. Sheer is a Western Canadian with poor french running against a francophone liberal.

2. Central Canada particularly Ontario has become increasingly more liberal and it will be almost impossible for a social conservative to win without cracking this region and it is almost impossible for a social conservative to win this region.

3.  Trudeau has pivoted to the left of the ndp making it hard for anyone to beat him.

4.  There are 4 maritime provinces who are dependent on government handouts mostly federal.  No real conservative will crack these areas.

Another poster (hernanday) posted this elsewhere but this forum software is so crappy that I can't easily/don't know how to quote/link while creating a new thread.

Anyway... 

I agree that the federal Liberals/Trudeau Jnr will likely win the next election with a majority - they are currently above 40% and the Tories are at best at 30%.

But, recall that Trudeau Snr almost lost his first re-election in 1972 - for similar reasons that Trudeau Jnr may jeopardise his first re-election. (In 1972, Trudeau Snr believed in his own ego "The Land is Strong"); his son will likely do the same in 2019: "They said I would  lose. I left them in the dust.") CBC

=====

Harper did NOT implode the party. Like in the card game of Bridge, the split was bad. In 2015, more or less, Trudeau Jnr managed to make one in ten NDP voters switch Liberal; and make one in ten non-voters vote Liberal.

What happened recently in BC and Nova Scotia should cause concern: in the Maritimes, people want a change. In BC, the extremists are nipping at the heels of the middle ground.

In 2019, I suspect that the Trudeau Liberals will be re-elected with a reduced majority. But they will face the age-old federal Liberal (Ontario Liberal) problem: how to be the radical middle.

 

Edited June 1, 2017 by August1991

[-1=e^ipi]

I think a minority government is a possibility. Also, if NDP choose Guy Caron, I'd give them a decent chance to form government.

[Rue]

10 hours ago, August1991 said:

Another poster (hernanday) posted this elsewhere but this forum software is so crappy that I can't easily/don't know how to quote/link while creating a new thread.

Anyway... 

I agree that the federal Liberals/Trudeau Jnr will likely win the next election with a majority - they are currently above 40% and the Tories are at best at 30%.

But, recall that Trudeau Snr almost lost his first re-election in 1972 - for similar reasons that Trudeau Jnr may jeopardise his first re-election. (In 1972, Trudeau Snr believed in his own ego "The Land is Strong"); his son will likely do the same in 2019: "They said I would  lose. I left them in the dust.") CBC

=====

Harper did NOT implode the party. Like in the card game of Bridge, the split was bad. In 2015, more or less, Trudeau Jnr managed to make one in ten NDP voters switch Liberal; and make one in ten non-voters vote Liberal.

What happened recently in BC and Nova Scotia should cause concern: in the Maritimes, people want a change. In BC, the extremists are nipping at the heels of the middle ground.

In 2019, I suspect that the Trudeau Liberals will be re-elected with a reduced majority. But they will face the age-old federal Liberal (Ontario Liberal) problem: how to be the radical middle.

 

Thanks for that depressing analysis. Very cheery indeed.

Let me play devil's advocate. Maybe Scheer recaptures 905 ridings in Ontario. Also maybe seats you think will go to Trudeau next election go NDP. That said if both happened Scheer could get a minority government. A lot depends on how bad the economy is doing in the next election. I can't help but think poor economic records in Alberta and Ontario may trigger enough of a concern to shy away from Trudeau but after seing Wyne get elected with her horrible record maybe you may be  right. So I go with IPEI and say minority either way?

Good God another 4 years of photo ops. Where's my medication I am getting an anxiety attack. I  see visions of Justin and the French Prime Minister bursting into a G7 meeting wrestling like in the Borat movie while Frau Merkel and Mr. Donald wink at each other. I can't handle it. New world order. Yeck.

Edited June 1, 2017 by Rue

[Bob Macadoo]

Ummmmm....Canadian economy is revving up with the lower dollar (who woulda thunk)......as much as others will bark raving mad against it.  So what will be the achille's heel now?  Special treatment to QC?  Oops....no constitution/distinct nation fear mongering.......the hippy dippy list is shortening.

[PIK]

We had peace under harper. Now trudeau has opened up a can of worms, with the provinces.

[Omni]

16 minutes ago, PIK said:

We had peace under harper. Now trudeau has opened up a can of worms, with the provinces.

Peace? The only "peace" Harper had with the provinces was because he hid in his office and refused to meet with them. Six years went by without a first ministers meeting under his administration. That's the longest stretch in 97 years.

[-TSS-]

Two terms for one party in the government is the standard in your anglosphere countries. After two terms winning a third term requires that the alternative must be really lousy. Otherwise people have grown tired after two terms and let the pendulum swing again.

[H10]

On 5/31/2017 at 9:06 PM, August1991 said:

Another poster (hernanday) posted this elsewhere but this forum software is so crappy that I can't easily/don't know how to quote/link while creating a new thread.

Anyway... 

I agree that the federal Liberals/Trudeau Jnr will likely win the next election with a majority - they are currently above 40% and the Tories are at best at 30%.

But, recall that Trudeau Snr almost lost his first re-election in 1972 - for similar reasons that Trudeau Jnr may jeopardise his first re-election. (In 1972, Trudeau Snr believed in his own ego "The Land is Strong"); his son will likely do the same in 2019: "They said I would  lose. I left them in the dust.") CBC

=====

Harper did NOT implode the party. Like in the card game of Bridge, the split was bad. In 2015, more or less, Trudeau Jnr managed to make one in ten NDP voters switch Liberal; and make one in ten non-voters vote Liberal.

What happened recently in BC and Nova Scotia should cause concern: in the Maritimes, people want a change. In BC, the extremists are nipping at the heels of the middle ground.

In 2019, I suspect that the Trudeau Liberals will be re-elected with a reduced majority. But they will face the age-old federal Liberal (Ontario Liberal) problem: how to be the radical middle.

 

Harper imploded his party by playing the race card and neglecting everything East of Alberta.  While it is true Liberals often neglect Alberta and oil policies that would help them, this only works because no one lives in Alberta compared to Quebec and Ontario.  Harper got 1 majority government and was given the boot, he imploded his party and was lucky the liberals under dion and ignatieff was so weak that the NDP refused to form a coalition with them because they simply assumed that once Harper imploded the nation everyone would vote NDP due to weak liberal leadership.  And this was almost true as NDP was projected to win the election but Trudeau stole it away from them in a surprise win.

The difference is that Trudeau has shifted the national liberal party to the left, taking the NDP votes.  Most of the provincial liberals haven't done this (Except recently kathlen wynne).  Trudeau was the change candidate, the conservatives (nationally speaking) are the status quo party.  Now in BC the NDP were the change party since the liberals had been governing for a while and to be fair they just barely lost a majority government.

I agree, 2019, liberals will have a reduced majority.  I think Trudeau is facing this issue of radical middle with marijuana legalization.  It is a grossly impractical policy but he must do it to maintain the stoner vote.  Luckily, Trudeau is not driven by corporate money so he can be a little more radical than lets say, previous liberal candidates, who just tried to be middle ground candidates.

[H10]

On 6/1/2017 at 7:20 AM, Rue said:

Thanks for that depressing analysis. Very cheery indeed.

Let me play devil's advocate. Maybe Scheer recaptures 905 ridings in Ontario. Also maybe seats you think will go to Trudeau next election go NDP. That said if both happened Scheer could get a minority government. A lot depends on how bad the economy is doing in the next election. I can't help but think poor economic records in Alberta and Ontario may trigger enough of a concern to shy away from Trudeau but after seing Wyne get elected with her horrible record maybe you may be  right. So I go with IPEI and say minority either way?

Good God another 4 years of photo ops. Where's my medication I am getting an anxiety attack. I  see visions of Justin and the French Prime Minister bursting into a G7 meeting wrestling like in the Borat movie while Frau Merkel and Mr. Donald wink at each other. I can't handle it. New world order. Yeck.

Ontario's economy is the strongest in the nation and the strongest it has been in a very long time, unemployment is quiet low here now.

[PIK]

On 6/3/2017 at 12:17 AM, hernanday said:

Ontario's economy is the strongest in the nation and the strongest it has been in a very long time, unemployment is quiet low here now.

Are you fucking nuts.

[?Impact]

1 hour ago, PIK said:

Are you fucking nuts.

Lowest unemployment rates in the country are in order: Yukon, BC, Quebec, and Ontario

Of course facts are a problem for you.

[PIK]

16 hours ago, ?Impact said:

Lowest unemployment rates in the country are in order: Yukon, BC, Quebec, and Ontario

Of course facts are a problem for you.

I live in ONT and run businesses, I know what is really going on and we just shed 55,000 jobs in january because of the minimum wage. Industry are moving across the river into quebec because it is much cheaper to do business.

[-TSS-]

So it is more relevant who is in charge at the provincial level than which party leads the federal government?

[Argus]

2 hours ago, -TSS- said:

So it is more relevant who is in charge at the provincial level than which party leads the federal government?

Not necessarily. That depends on the ambitions of the federal government. This one has few ambitions other than to stay in power. Not that the previous one was a hell of a lot better, mind you. A really bad federal government can make things bad across the country. We have yet to experience the economic effects of the Trudeau climate change policies, remember, because they've been so slow to enact them. I think they want to ensure that the next election is held before the impact of those policies is felt by ordinary people. Much as the provincial liberals raised minimum wages by an unheard of percentage knowing the full economic impact will not be felt until after the upcoming election. She gets the credit - and votes - of people whose wages rose, but those who lose their jobs, well, most of that won't happen until after the election.

[Rue]

On 2/21/2018 at 10:06 AM, PIK said:

I live in ONT and run businesses, I know what is really going on and we just shed 55,000 jobs in january because of the minimum wage. Industry are moving across the river into quebec because it is much cheaper to do business.

Shut up. You are evil. How dare you run a business and expect to make a profit. 

[Rue]

3 hours ago, -TSS- said:

So it is more relevant who is in charge at the provincial level than which party leads the federal government?

It might depending on your kind of business. Provincial legislation can have devastating impact on businesses within any province as Kathleen Wynne is proving. I am surprise you need to ask. The differences in provincial governments have a direct positive or  negative impact on business. Where have you been with the inter-provincial  trade disputes  or disputes between provinces and federal governments? There are plenty of examples from the past and present. Start with trying to start a business in Ontario compared to other provinces. Ontario is not a province welcoming business. Its regulations and laws make it easier to set up shop in other provinces. Start with the minimum wage, income taxes, corporate taxes. Start there but it does not end there.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Rue

[-TSS-]

The thing is that as I'm coming from a small country and I can only understand a unitary form of government. The very concept of federalism is totally alien to me.

 

[?Impact]

2 hours ago, Rue said:

Start with the minimum wage, income taxes, corporate taxes. Start there but it does not end there.

It would be nice if you did the smallest bit of research before dumping on Ontario.

 

Alberta lead with the highest minimum wage, and it will again be the highest in October.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, all have higher corporate tax rates.

Income tax is much more difficult to compare because it is graduated differently by province so you would have to know an exact amount to make a comparison. Ontario however is the absolute lowest tax rate for the highest tax bracket.

Edited February 26, 2018 by ?Impact

[PIK]

So now trudeau wants to buy the next election with free drugs for all. Why not take the money and give the seniors some more on thier pensions.

[Rue]

20 hours ago, -TSS- said:

The thing is that as I'm coming from a small country and I can only understand a unitary form of government. The very concept of federalism is totally alien to me.

 

I apologize. I forgot you were from Finland. Genuine apology. In your case a very good question. Our laws are confusing. The province has primary power to pass laws on business within the province. Then if the business deals with businesses outside the one province with other provinces or other businesses in other countries it calls under federal legislation and so it can overlap. You can incorporate under federal law or provincial law. Sorry TSS I forgot you came from somewhere civilized. I have been on this board so long I have become a mean old man. I actually respect you a lot. I love your posts. I forgot it was you. Anyways to make a long story shot yah man, the provincial governments have a lot of legal power to impact on business. The actual laws in Ontario have caused many  businesses to move out. Its not so much just the taxes its the excessive paper work in compliance. Companies now spend a fortune on compliance departments just to properly fill out all the government forms. Minimum wage is one of many factors that can impact on the decision to locate in Ontario.

Here you go TSS:

 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ontario-drives-manufacturers-away-with-overpriced-electricity/article14854752/

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ontario-economy-entrepreneurs/article35454118/

 

[Argus]

5 hours ago, PIK said:

So now trudeau wants to buy the next election with free drugs for all. Why not take the money and give the seniors some more on thier pensions.

Because pharmacare sounds better, and seniors vote conservative too much. This is a good idea. And it's good politics. Canadians will love it. Someone else paying for their drugs!

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

If Trudeau marginalizes the NDP it’s hard to see where the seats will come from for the Conservatives. Barring some economic catastrophe, they have a vote ceiling. 

[Omni]

5 hours ago, PIK said:

So now trudeau wants to buy the next election with free drugs for all. Why not take the money and give the seniors some more on thier pensions.

Seniors aren't the only people who need pharmaceuticals. Many Canadians cannot afford the drugs they need partly because we pay more than any where else in the world for them. Acquiring the required drugs in the quantities needed for a socialized system drives the price down considerably. 

[SpankyMcFarland]

The much-maligned NHS manages to cover drug costs and it does so more cheaply per person than we do:

http://healthydebate.ca/2015/03/topic/pharmacare-2

Our system discriminates against the working poor who aren’t on welfare but don’t have good drug plans at work. 

 

Edited February 27, 2018 by SpankyMcFarland

[SpankyMcFarland]

Minor quibble: the four provinces referred to above consist of the Maritimes and NL.  Together they are called Atlantic Canada.