Softwood lumber - AGAIN!

[Topaz]

Not sure if this is true, but apparently after talking to Trudeau, Trump has back off on NAFTA....it seems the pipeline is worth more than lumber to the US, time will only tell.

[bush_cheney2004]

I'm sure this is true...Trudeau will not approve Clark's requested ban on thermal coal transport to BC ports.

Canada would suffer far more from U.S. border crossing bans.

Otherwise Trudeau can kiss the KXL pipeline goodbye.

[blackbird]

President Trump says NAFTA has been horrible for the U.S.   I am not sure in what way he thinks that. 

[Wilber]

11 minutes ago, blackbird said:

President Trump says NAFTA has been horrible for the U.S.   I am not sure in what way he thinks that. 

Ignorance. I don't think he knows or cares. It's all just part of the show.

[bush_cheney2004]

1 minute ago, Wilber said:

Ignorance. I don't think he knows or cares. It's all just part of the show.

 

Agreed....Canadian politicians have bemoaned and threatened to leave NAFTA for political gain, just like Trump.

 

 

[Wilber]

Not Just Canada

[Rue]

Let's get real. The US is 0 in 5 when its pulled the lumber stunt before and that is because their contention that we are engaging in unfair trading of lumber has been proven false time and time again.

Trump doesn't care. His m.o. is to make sound bites or what some rightfuly describe as loud farts. He screams, he yells for then behind closed doors backs off. Its all posturing. Now with the milk issue its not milk. Its a cheese by-product and in total we are talking 70, I repeat 70 farmers in Wisconsin who feel their cheese by-product can't compete with the cost of the Canadian one. The very amendment they want for their cheese by-product would screw  other Wisconsin dairy farmers trading milk not cheese by-product and so its a non issue that may piss off those 70 farmers but in the long run benefits other dairy farmers in far larger numbers.

Each time in the past the US put a retaliatory protectionist tax on Canadian lumber, US lumber prices sky rocketed causing more h arm to the US construction industry than any supposed benefit the tax was supposed to bring in.

Isn't it interesting Donald Trump who claims he is for free markets is not and wants to control world market prices with US monopolies and thinks if he farts and bellows countries like Canada and Mexico will engage in weak deals for themselves. Uh no. This is why the idiot Trump a day after claiming he was going to rip up NAFTA said he won't. Listen up. He could have the day he was elected announced he is ripping up NAFTA. He has to give 6 months notice to do this. Nothing is stopping him. He won't. He can't. The more he bellows the more the US Senators and Congress officials who need free access to Canadian markets fight him. As for his absolute massacre of the Great Lakes environmental initiative-it was a classic example of an idiot who knows nothing about how much money those initiatives made Great Lakes U.S. states screwing these states and we haven't heard the last about that.

If people take the time to study NAFTA its done more benefit then negative for US industry and employment which was its very  intent and most Americans in state politics know that. . Its a red herring for them. Without free trade, red tape would prevent and hinder cross border business and our economies and since the US exports more to us then we do to them to go backwords and put back up costly tarrifs, taxes and paper work hindering that flow makes zero cents and won't recapture in taxes the tax cuts Trump claims he will make but still be able to hve moneyt o fund his military expansion.

The bottom line. It won't be Trump or Justin deciding our economic relationship with each other, It will be regulatory lawyers and economists behind closed doors deciding what's best and neither side can screw the other side-the two need each other to continue to fend off China, and  the faltering Euro economy and NAFTA will have cosmetic changes done to make Trump sound tough but in the long run nothing will change.

Trump can not bring back cheap labour manufacturing to the US from Mexico, Vietnam, China, Bangladesh. Its way too late for that.

The irony is Trump made all his money selling inferior products made in these cheap labour states at the expense of American labourers and now he poses as the saviour of American labourers. What a friggin joke. This is someone who used bankruptcy laws to avoid paying his labourers and never once used a made in America garment manufacturer for his brand name shirts, suits, pants, or products.

I believe and support US foreign policy he's bringing back but when it comes to international trade, he's an idiot but he is also surrounded by 33 US governors and 66 senators and 66 Congressman who can't afford not to have free trade with Canada.

Our Natural Resources Minister actually did a masterful response to his latest bellows. Far better than the uh er uh er uh er uh burping on air by Trudeau. Also our little midget Foreign Minister handles sound bites very well on economic issues given her days as an economic journalist taught her to hold her own explaining supply and demand theories. I like her sound bites although she can sound a little snotty at times. Clearly though the right person for this.

It matters little what Trudeau thinks or says. We have some very experienced negotiators hired by the provinces of BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, Quebec, etc., not to mention the federal government and they are all on the same page. One beneficial side effect in this is it will prove to Quebec once and for all they are better off in a Canadian economic network protecting them from US protectionism then going it alone v.s. the US.

Each time Trump bellows he puts another nail in Quebec separatism so bring it in. Canada has a very simple solution. If Trump wants to screw us and  try bully us into unfair deals we simply turn to China, Australia, New Zealand, South America, Europe and the UK to offset. In this world climate thinking the US is Canada's only option is simply not true anymore like it was in the 60's or even 70's. We could enter free trade agreements with Brazil, Argentina, the UK, South Korea, China, Japan, etc., on our own.

I think its all prattle myself. A strong healthy mutually positive relationship with the Yanks is the way to go. Its been so far a win win not a lose win for both sides. I think its all loud meaningless sound bites and posturing. Eventually any irritants will be ironed out as they always have been.

 

 

 

Edited April 27, 2017 by Rue

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada is acting like this is the first time countervailing duty has been imposed on softwood lumber.

This has been going for more than 30 years !

[Wilber]

Family Farms Dying in US

 

Is this what we want to imitate? It's what Trump is trying to protect. Family farm earnings stay in their communities by buyng their needs locally. A country of 35 million cannot save an industry that a country of 350 million has fucked up.

[bush_cheney2004]

U.S. family farms are dead...they become corporate farms with huge subsidies.

The U.S. is not responsible for Canada's farms or farming "communities".

Whine to Ottawa...not to Washington D.C.

[Omni]

1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

Canada is acting like this is the first time countervailing duty has been imposed on softwood lumber.

This has been going for more than 30 years !

And we're up 5-zip. Maybe the US should upgrade their mills.

[blackbird]

The problem is tree farming is on privately owned land in the U.S. and in Canada tree farming (or logging) is done on crown land.  I suppose a lumber company in the U.S. must pay more to land owners to log on private land, while in Canada logging companies pay the government so much for each cubic meter of logs taken off crown land and the logging company must restore the forest I believe.  I'm not sure who pays for re-planting trees on logged off areas.

The thing is it's not Canada's fault if we have lots of crown land and logging is more profitable in Canada.  It is our natural resource and we don't have to give away our natural resources for a low price.  It's just like any other natural resource Canada or any country has.  I don't think the natural resources in Canada are an international resource any more than natural resources in the U.S. belong to other countries.  Every country charges a fair price for it's resources or should be able to as far as I know.  The U.S. is probably getting a good deal on Canadian lumber because they are the biggest buyer and close by.  We are tired of this game of charging a 20% tariff and then having it ruled as illegitimate years later and then having to try to collect billions of dollars refund, some of which has not been paid back.

[bush_cheney2004]

2 minutes ago, blackbird said:

.... We are tired of this game of charging a 20% tariff and then having it ruled as illegitimate years later and then having to try to collect billions of dollars refund, some of which has not been paid back.

 

Can't be that tired...Canada has been doing it for over 30 years.

[bush_cheney2004]

The beauty of all this is that even if Canada finally gets enough courage/brains to diversify from the U.S. export market it is so dependent on, the Americans will just buy more of Canada's base to capture the new markets anyway.

50% of Canada's manufacturing base is owned by U.S. corps/interests.

[blackbird]

  Was glad Trudeau called him a couple times on the phone in the last couple days and seemed to reach some kind of agreement to keep NAFTA for now and negotiate changes.  Agreements work best when leaders talk personally.  It is such a complex thing and apparently thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of jobs in the U.S. depend on NAFTA as well as the same in Canada.  Hundreds of millions of dollars, maybe billions, of trade is done every day. 

Edited April 27, 2017 by blackbird

[bush_cheney2004]

President Trump let everybody know early on that he was going to break a lot of rules and shake things up on many issues.   Nothing special about NAFTA in that regard, as it was specifically targeted as part of the election campaign.    Both Trump and Clinton said they would not support TPP, and it had zero chance of being ratified anyway. 

Trump's antics are now understood to be a purposeful strategy of media manipulation, misdirection, backtracking, and compromise.

The softwood lumber "file" has existed for many years before Trump ever got elected.

 

 

[Omni]

11 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said:

The softwood lumber "file" has existed for many years before Trump ever got elected.

So why doesn't he read the damn thing and learn from it instead of making the same mistake over again?

[blackbird]

Former Prime Minister Mulroney gave an very enlightening interview about NAFTA on CBC today.  Mulroney was the PM when the original NAFTA agreement was signed back around 1990.  It will probably be broadcast on the news this evening and maybe on the weekend.   It is a very re-assuring interview.  He doesn't believe there is much to be worried about.  He says there are millions of jobs in the U.S. dependent on it and he thinks once the facts are known, things will settle down.  He said the federal government has a very good team and will present the facts when the time comes.

[Rue]

17 minutes ago, blackbird said:

Former Prime Minister Mulroney gave an very enlightening interview about NAFTA on CBC today.  Mulroney was the PM when the original NAFTA agreement was signed back around 1990.  It will probably be broadcast on the news this evening and maybe on the weekend.   It is a very re-assuring interview.  He doesn't believe there is much to be worried about.  He says there are millions of jobs in the U.S. dependent on it and he thinks once the facts are known, things will settle down.  He said the federal government has a very good team and will present the facts when the time comes.

I think he's right BB. I mean with Trump anything is possible but when saner heads prevail no one is blowing up anything. The Yanks are not idiots and neither are we and if we had screwed one another this could not have worked. There are always periodic adjustments. Both countries have the right to look after their interests. Trump is posturing for domestic consumption. I listen more to the Governors and senators and congressman from the states trading with Canada first. It was proven false that Canada has screwed the US over not by  us, but those Governors and senators.

If Trump really cares he will not hut the Great Lakes environmental initiative- he's going to seriously hurt Americans whose livelihood is tied to the  lakes. The US did great things helping clean up the lakes. To end that work is a collosal mistake. I think the US should be commended for its  bi-partisan effort to clean up the lakes with Canada and we have to continue to work together. It makes no sense or cents to feud with one another.

Edited April 28, 2017 by Rue

[Omni]

Trudeau phoned him up and told him to "stay calm and carry on", and I assume the other amigo gave him a similar talking to and he came to his senses, at least for the moment, and, well, at least on one issue. And then there is the wall....

[Wilber]

Yup, they are all best buddies now according to Trump. Someone needs to tell him that good cop, bad cop requires two people. Trying to do it yourself just makes you look schizophrenic.

[bush_cheney2004]

President Trump can go rogue on NAFTA whenever he wants...it is great leverage for other "files" to be negotiated.

NAFTA has provision for any of the parties to leave after 6 months notice...by design.

[Omni]

14 hours ago, Wilber said:

Yup, they are all best buddies now according to Trump. Someone needs to tell him that good cop, bad cop requires two people. Trying to do it yourself just makes you look schizophrenic.

And that would be about all he has accomplished so far. It's easy to think up a list of his numerous flip flops: "China is a currency manipulator, China is not a currency manipulator, NATO is obsolete,  NATO is not obsolete, I'm going to rip up NAFTA, I'm going to negotiate NAFTA" and the list goes on and on. My guess is he will do the same with lumber.

[SpankyMcFarland]

It's a tax on new houses. People down south will figure that out at some point.   

Has Trump even got his nominee for trade, Lighthizer, appointed yet? That would be a start. 

 

[bush_cheney2004]

9 minutes ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

It's a tax on new houses. People down south will figure that out at some point.  

 

Sure...when we bought our new construction house, we were keen to know how much was the cost for U.S. vs. Canada framing lumber !