CPC 2017: Bernier vs Alexander

[betsy]

5 hours ago, Argus said:

No. I agree with Lietch on values testing, strongly agree. So do most Canadians. When Raitt called a special news conference to announce that the party had to stop Leitch because of this policy I decided not to vote for her. Clearly she's very liberal on immigration - or is just eager to get accolades from the liberal media, and that's not what I'm looking for.

That's the same thing that came to my mind.  I really got turned off with her.

[August1991]

On 3/14/2017 at 1:00 PM, Argus said:

Alexander was the guy who started his campaign by calling for a huge increase in immigration. So no, I don't think he stands much chance.

Argus,

You don't understand the voting system. It is not who wins the most votes. Heck, it's not even a US primary system where we can see who wins at each stage. It is who can win the most second/third hidden choices.

My call: Unless O'Leary wins on the first ballot, he will not win.

I suspect that Chris Alexander is the second/third choice of many CPC  voters; in the last ballot count, it will be a vote between Alexander and Bernier.

I've been wrong on many political predictions, maybe I'll be wrong in this political prediction too. 

Edited March 16, 2017 by August1991

[?Impact]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

My call: Unless O'Leary wins on the first ballot, he will not win.

I suspect that Chris Alexander is the second/third choice of many CPC  voters; in the last ballot count, it will be a vote between Alexander and Bernier.

I'm not sure I follow. While others will probably have more second and third choices than O'Leary, he doesn't lose his first choice (we assume he will be high enough not to be removed from the running and have his first choice ballots redistributed). He just has to cross the 16901 threshold, and if he is ahead on the first ballot count then he doesn't need as many second or third choices. The complication of having 100 points assigned to each electoral district and distributed based on percent vote in that district does change things as well.

[Newfoundlander]

On 2017-03-14 at 5:15 AM, August1991 said:

Newfoundlander, I suspect that given the voting system, Alexander will be the Protestant/left-over choice.

Like Joe Clark in 1979, another Catholic/left-over - or Dion in 2006..

 

How and why?

Whose supporters does he get? Who is voting for him as their second/third choice over say Scheer, Chong, O'Toole or Raitt?

[Newfoundlander]

August's assertion that Alexander will be able to make it to the final round just seems quite odd to me, and I'll explain why.

 

Despite several years as a prominent member of Harper's cabinet - and being mentioned as a possible successor 10 minutes after being elected as an MP - Alexander has attracted no prominent endorsements from Conservatives. As the media reported a few months ago it wasn't even clear who was running his campaign. Without a strong campaign team behind it won't be easy to even make an appeal to be second place choice.

 

In order to get second place votes, one needs to attract enough first-place support to be in probably the top 6. Saxton, Obrhai, Peterson, and Lemieux will likely be the first to drop off. None are considered to have much support so who their supporters select as second, third, or fourth will likely have little influence on the race. Trost doesn't appear to have much support either but social conservatives might give him enough support to have a little more influence than those previously mentioned. Then there's Blaney whose Quebec support could boost his numbers a bit that his votes have some influence. Right now Alexander only seems to have about as much support as Trost and Blaney. So he'd need to finish ahead of all those previously mentioned and have enough support to get ahead of candidates like Chong, Raitt, and O'Toole, all Ontario candidates who are seen as being in that top-mid tier. I could go on but me explaining it further is just a waste of time 

 

August has mentioned the fact that he is fluently bilingual as a reason he will do well. However, anyone who doesn’t speak French won’t know the difference between Alexander’s French and Chong’s French or Scheer’s French. As I have previously said it might help him get high on the ballots of supporters of Bernier and Blaney. However, it looks like Bernier will make it to the final ballot so Alexander would never have a chance at getting any of his supporters. I would imagine if Quebec roots and bilingualism is a big concern for the Blaney supporters they’ll choose Bernier as their second choice, and therefore Alexander is unlikely to see much of his support. 

 

I can’t see a path for Alexander to make it into the top tier let alone to be in the top two. Maybe August can explain further how exactly Alexander gets there.

[PIK]

On 3/15/2017 at 9:15 AM, betsy said:

We're seriously looking at Bernier.  Second will be Leitch.

 

I've taken Lisa Raitt off the list.  I'll never vote for her.  She put up an attack on Leitch for her immigration policy (screening applicants for compatibility to Canadian values) - what's wrong with that??? 

Raitt's spouting off the same liberal cliche', calling Leitch, divisive!  And yet, Raitt took the trouble to single out Leitch and O'Leary in her attack ads at her website!  Marginalizing someone is being maliciously divisive!  It's hypocritical, isn't it?  That makes Raitt very much just like any hypocritical Liberal who's for indiscriminate open borders, in my book.

That is when she dropped on my list. I was all for her at the start.

[PIK]

19 hours ago, dre said:

Sure but the conservative candidate here wont have the luxury of running against Hilary Clinton.

Only way the conservatives win is if there's a huge recession, or a sponsorship sized scandal.

Or wide open borders. And they will be running against the drama queen,which people are getting very tired of,  just as good as running against hill. And if he is just going to run on el reform and legal weed again, it will not work.

[capricorn]

49 minutes ago, Newfoundlander said:

I can’t see a path for Alexander to make it into the top tier let alone to be in the top two. Maybe August can explain further how exactly Alexander gets there.

To me, Alexander looks and sounds like a younger version of Stéphane (Green Shift) Dion. Dion vying for the top job did not end well.

[Newfoundlander]

2 hours ago, capricorn said:

To me, Alexander looks and sounds like a younger version of Stéphane (Green Shift) Dion. Dion vying for the top job did not end well.

I don't think he sounds like anyone because his campaign has done so little I've hardly heard anything from him. I have absolutely no clue why he's running. The only thing I know is that he wants to increase immigration levels. 

[Argus]

13 hours ago, August1991 said:

Argus,

You don't understand the voting system. It is not who wins the most votes. Heck, it's not even a US primary system where we can see who wins at each stage. It is who can win the most second/third hidden choices.

My call: Unless O'Leary wins on the first ballot, he will not win.

My understanding is there is only one ballot. It's a ranked ballot, where you put who you want, plus your second and third choices, and maybe, for all I know, your fourth and fifth. Each give a certain number of points. There's no need for a second ballot after that.

13 hours ago, August1991 said:

I suspect that Chris Alexander is the second/third choice of many CPC  voters; in the last ballot count, it will be a vote between Alexander and Bernier.

I seriously doubt it. The Anglos' second choice is more likely to be Scheer or O'Toole. The Francophones will go to Bernier or Blaney.

 

[capricorn]

1 hour ago, Newfoundlander said:

I have absolutely no clue why he's running.

Some MLW posters more astute than I on politics have posited that running for the leadership, while knowing in advance you will lose, is a move to increase your chance of a cabinet post should your party win government.  Your chances are increased if you ingratiate yourself to the leader.

Quote

The only thing I know is that he wants to increase immigration levels. 

IMO I doubt that policy position will serve him well in the current climate.

[Newfoundlander]

You only get second/third/fourth choice votes when a candidate drops off. 

For instance, Rick Peterson probably has a good chance of coming in last place. If he were to fall off first - and he may only have ~1% of the points - then his supporters second choice votes will be counted.

If Andrew Saxton were to fall off next then his second place votes would be looked at. For those Saxton supporters who ranked Peterson as number their 2 then their third choice will be counted.

So while it's great to be the second choice of many candidates, you may never see those votes if you fall off early. For instance, as it stands right not Bernier seems likely to finish in at least second place. Because of this who his supporters picked as their second choice will never be counted. 

Someone may also get 50% + 1 of the points needed when there are three or four candidates left.

Some people seem to think that everyone's second choices are looked at if nobody gets 50% + 1 on the first ballot, but it's only the person who finishes last.

[Argus]

What's that I smell? Is that a whiff of corrupt politics? I think Bernier is a little too overzealous and maybe Scheer is the way to go.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/conservative-party-expels-nearly-1400-members-after-three-leadership-campaigns-allege-fraud

Edited March 18, 2017 by Argus

[capricorn]

32 minutes ago, Argus said:

 maybe Scheer is the way to go.

I had a look at his policy platform. I could live with that.

http://www.andrewscheer.com/policy

[capricorn]

52 minutes ago, Argus said:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/conservative-party-expels-nearly-1400-members-after-three-leadership-campaigns-allege-fraud

The memberships were purchased anonymously through the party website with prepaid credit cards. The culprits could just as well be volunteers from the O'Leary camp.

[Argus]

30 minutes ago, capricorn said:

The memberships were purchased anonymously through the party website with prepaid credit cards. The culprits could just as well be volunteers from the O'Leary camp.

Don't see why O'Leary, Scheer and Lietch should complain to the party, if that were the case. All the media outlets I've seen are pointing at Bernier. Don't know on what evidence but it shouldn't be hard to find out.

[capricorn]

31 minutes ago, Argus said:

Don't see why O'Leary, Scheer and Lietch should complain to the party, if that were the case. All the media outlets I've seen are pointing at Bernier. Don't know on what evidence but it shouldn't be hard to find out.

Not according to party spokesman Cory Hann.

Quote

Party spokesman Cory Hann said it wasn’t possible to determine which leadership campaign or campaigns were behind the scheme since the memberships were purchased anonymously through the party’s website.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2017/03/17/tory-leadership-candidate-maxime-bernier-hits-back-after-kevin-oleary-camp-raises-fraud-allegations.html

[August1991]

On 3/16/2017 at 0:54 PM, Argus said:

My understanding is there is only one ballot. It's a ranked ballot, where you put who you want, plus your second and third choices, and maybe, for all I know, your fourth and fifth. Each give a certain number of points. There's no need for a second ballot after that.

I seriously doubt it. The Anglos' second choice is more likely to be Scheer or O'Toole. The Francophones will go to Bernier or Blaney.

 

Agreed, Argus. Alexander is not the Anglo's second choice. But is he third or fourth?

To make it a final choice between Bernier and Alexander.... 

Edited March 19, 2017 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

13 hours ago, August1991 said:

Agreed, Argus. Alexander is not the Anglo's second choice. But is he third or fourth?

To make it a final choice between Bernier and Alexander.... 

 

If Alexander isn't even the second choice of Anglo's how does he make it all the way to the final round?

[overthere]

Choice?  Vote for the white guy from Quebec, that is the only one with any hope of getting elected as PM eventually.

 

Since Blaney is a loon, that leaves Bernier.

[August1991]

On 3/19/2017 at 11:40 AM, Newfoundlander said:

If Alexander isn't even the second choice of Anglo's how does he make it all the way to the final round?

The same way that Dion became federal Liberal leader in 2006.

===

Let me explain myself: I am not predicting that Chris Alexander will be the next federal Conservative leader.

Heck, I am not even predicting that Alexander will be the best among the "three final choices" - however these final three are determined.

For all I know, Chris Alexander will be eliminated quickly. But I see a way for someone like Alexander to win.

Edited March 21, 2017 by August1991

[August1991]

On 3/19/2017 at 2:39 PM, overthere said:

Choice?  Vote for the white guy from Quebec, that is the only one with any hope of getting elected as PM eventually.

 

That worked well for Claude Wagner in 1976 against Joe Clark. [/sarcasm]

===

Overthere,

Since Mackenzie King, a Canadian federal PM must "speak" French and English. Full stop.

After that, like much in politics, it's a question of accent.

Edited March 21, 2017 by August1991

[August1991]

On 3/16/2017 at 9:10 AM, Newfoundlander said:

...

August has mentioned the fact that he is fluently bilingual as a reason he will do well. However, anyone who doesn’t speak French won’t know the difference between Alexander’s French and Chong’s French or Scheer’s French. As I have previously said it might help him get high on the ballots of supporters of Bernier and Blaney. However, it looks like Bernier will make it to the final ballot so Alexander would never have a chance at getting any of his supporters. I would imagine if Quebec roots and bilingualism is a big concern for the Blaney supporters they’ll choose Bernier as their second choice, and therefore Alexander is unlikely to see much of his support. 

I can’t see a path for Alexander to make it into the top tier let alone to be in the top two. Maybe August can explain further how exactly Alexander gets there.

Newfoundlander, I reckon that you make my point: who possibly will face Bernier in the final ballot/tally - with enough second-choice votes?

Blaney? Raitt? O'Leary? Chong? Scheer? Except for Scheer (and his French is awful), I only see Alexander.

Edited March 21, 2017 by August1991

[Newfoundlander]

3 hours ago, August1991 said:

The same way that Dion became federal Liberal leader in 2006.

===

Let me explain myself: I am not predicting that Chris Alexander will be the next federal Conservative leader.

Heck, I am not even predicting that Alexander will be the best among the "three final choices" - however these final three are determined.

For all I know, Chris Alexander will be eliminated quickly. But I see a way for someone like Alexander to win.

 

I must have gotten confused by the Bernier vs. Alexander thread.

[Newfoundlander]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

Newfoundlander, I reckon that you make my point: who possibly will face Bernier in the final ballot/tally - with enough second-choice votes?

Blaney? Raitt? O'Leary? Chong? Scheer? Except for Scheer (and his French is awful), I only see Alexander.

 

 

But Alexander has no support. As I've said it's just not enough to be people's second choice. Scheer for instance probably has a lot of second place appeal, but he's also popular on the first ballot. Same goes for O'Toole and Raitt to an extent and maybe Chong. 

You bring up Dion as someone who won because he was the second/third choice but he was also in the top 3 out of 8 candidates, and not significantly far behind the top two.

Edited March 21, 2017 by Newfoundlander