CPC 2017: Bernier vs Alexander

[Newfoundlander]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

Just like Dion, who won the federal Liberal leadership in 2006.

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By all polls, Bernier cannot win on the first ballot. From then, it's all about a "Anybody But Bernier" vote. IOW, who will non-Bernier voters choose?

I suspect that Alexander will be the catch-all non-Bernier choice. Simply put: what will a first choice O'Leary or Leitch voter put as a third or fourth choice? 

In 1976, the so-called "Progressive" Conservatives chose third place Clark rather than Wagner or Mulroney (all three Catholics, btw).

In 2017, I reckon the federal Conservatives will pick, for the first time, a leader with a French family name - but a WASP will come second. 

 

Alexander still needs to get a nice number of first ballot votes though. In 2006, Dion was in third place with 18% with Ignatieff at 29%, not an overly big gap to overcome.

Alexander would need to get above Chong, Raitt, and O'Toole to have any hope of getting enough support to propel him into one of those top spots. Unless he has signed up a lot of members there's no indication he can get ahead of the current mid-tier candidates.

[SpankyMcFarland]

4 hours ago, August1991 said:

Just like Dion, who won the federal Liberal leadership in 2006.

=====

By all polls, Bernier cannot win on the first ballot. From then, it's all about a "Anybody But Bernier" vote. IOW, who will non-Bernier voters choose?

I suspect that Alexander will be the catch-all non-Bernier choice. Simply put: what will a first choice O'Leary or Leitch voter put as a third or fourth choice? 

In 1976, the so-called "Progressive" Conservatives chose third place Clark rather than Wagner or Mulroney (all three Catholics, btw).

In 2017, I reckon the federal Conservatives will pick, for the first time, a leader with a French family name - but a WASP will come second. 

I can see 'French' and 'English' but I don't really see Catholic vs non-Catholic as a dividing factor any more. Did many people care Paul Martin was Catholic, for example? I don't remember it being mentioned. We have had a flurry of Catholic PMs after a very long period without them but that will subside. 

Dion was a mistake. Some people do not look like leaders. Why repeat it?

 

[Newfoundlander]

I don't have a clue what religion Trudeau is.

[PIK]

2 hours ago, Newfoundlander said:

I don't have a clue what religion Trudeau is.

I am back to max, for now.

[Argus]

9 hours ago, August1991 said:

Just like Dion, who won the federal Liberal leadership in 2006.

=====

By all polls, Bernier cannot win on the first ballot. From then, it's all about a "Anybody But Bernier" vote. IOW, who will non-Bernier voters choose?

I suspect that Alexander will be the catch-all non-Bernier choice. Simply put: what will a first choice O'Leary or Leitch voter put as a third or fourth choice? 

The only reason you like Alexander is he has decent French. There's simply nothing else to recommend him. He was a nonentity in cabinet.

[Rue]

I would go with O'Leary. Too many career politician idiots on the podium. Bernier is a dolt. He can't figure out how to use his  zipper is let alone a budget.

I would vote for Bonnie Raitt not Lisa Raitt.  You gonna play a tune it aint with Lisa.

[Newfoundlander]

19 hours ago, Argus said:

The only reason you like Alexander is he has decent French. There's simply nothing else to recommend him. He was a nonentity in cabinet.

The only thing I know is that he wants to increase immigration. Besides that, I don't know any other policy positions by him or why he's running. Time for him to quit and let the serious candidates debate. 

[August1991]

On 4/6/2017 at 0:46 PM, Argus said:

The only reason you like Alexander is he has decent French. There's simply nothing else to recommend him. He was a nonentity in cabinet.

If there were a decent Margaret Thatcher - this is not 1975, as our current PM frequently says - she would win.

[August1991]

On 4/6/2017 at 8:18 AM, SpankyMcFarland said:

I can see 'French' and 'English' but I don't really see Catholic vs non-Catholic as a dividing factor any more....

Spanky, it matters as "perception".

In the US, Catholics (like Jews in general) view themselves as a minority.

In Canada, like Ireland and France, Catholics are a majority - yet still in Canada, Catholics view themselves as a minority.

Edited April 8, 2017 by August1991

[SpankyMcFarland]

2 hours ago, August1991 said:

Spanky, it matters as "perception".

In the US, Catholics (like Jews in general) view themselves as a minority.

In Canada, like Ireland and France, Catholics are a majority - yet still in Canada, Catholics view themselves as a minority.

They are the largest denomination but less than 50% of the population, so they are in the minority. Like most Christian brands, the number of actual churchgoers is a lot smaller than the total.

I was surprised to find out that Clark and Turner are Catholics. 

 

 

 

 

[SpankyMcFarland]

On 2017-03-28 at 11:35 PM, SpankyMcFarland said:

Alexander is a nerd without a message, awkward and annoying, and I don't think disillusion with our country has yet reached O'Leary-friendly levels. So Bernier, Scheer and O'Toole for me. I'd like to see O'Toole win but Bernier is doing very well right now for some reason. Scheer and O'Toole have the best chance of beating Trudeau. 

 

Edited April 8, 2017 by SpankyMcFarland

[Newfoundlander]

Can't really give a proper prediction this early out and before we see the membership numbers, but I'd say Alexander will finish 9th or 10th.

The only ones it seems Alexander will finish ahead of are Saxton, Obrhai, and Peterson. Whether he can finish ahead of Lemieux, Trost, and Blaney, I don't know? 

[SpankyMcFarland]

This may be my problem but I always feel Alexander is talking down to me. He lacks the common touch. 

[Newfoundlander]

Support for the top seven candidates has increased recently while the bottom seven candidates have been stagnant or fallen. Since Mainstreet started polling the undecideds have dropped significantly but support for both Bernier and O'Leary hasn't really changed much. 

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/12/oleary-still-leading-followed-by-bernier-and-scheer-poll/

[PIK]

On 4/6/2017 at 2:44 PM, Rue said:

I would go with O'Leary. Too many career politician idiots on the podium. Bernier is a dolt. He can't figure out how to use his  zipper is let alone a budget.

I would vote for Bonnie Raitt not Lisa Raitt.  You gonna play a tune it aint with Lisa.

Bernier was the only one to have a plan put together.

[Argus]

1 hour ago, PIK said:

Bernier was the only one to have a plan put together.

Almost none of which he will be able to carry out.

[PIK]

3 hours ago, Argus said:

Almost none of which he will be able to carry out.

But he had a plan. lol

[Rue]

On ‎2017‎-‎04‎-‎08 at 1:33 AM, SpankyMcFarland said:

They are the largest denomination but less than 50% of the population, so they are in the minority. Like most Christian brands, the number of actual churchgoers is a lot smaller than the total.

I was surprised to find out that Clark and Turner are Catholics. 

 

 

 

 

Y'all look the same to me.

[SpankyMcFarland]

This is a pitch I have not seen before:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/boring-gets-the-job-done-tory-candidate-andrew-saxton-releases-defiantly-pro-boring-youtube-video

But there's something Canadian about it. Who would object to Saxton in the job? 

 

[Newfoundlander]

14 hours ago, SpankyMcFarland said:

This is a pitch I have not seen before:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/boring-gets-the-job-done-tory-candidate-andrew-saxton-releases-defiantly-pro-boring-youtube-video

But there's something Canadian about it. Who would object to Saxton in the job? 

 

 

Yet he still fails to add anything to the race and is only a hindrance on the whole leadership process. I hope members in his former riding make someone else their candidate in 2019. 

[August1991]

On 4/8/2017 at 7:53 AM, Newfoundlander said:

Can't really give a proper prediction this early out and before we see the membership numbers, but I'd say Alexander will finish 9th or 10th.

The only ones it seems Alexander will finish ahead of are Saxton, Obrhai, and Peterson. Whether he can finish ahead of Lemieux, Trost, and Blaney, I don't know? 

Agreed. Lemieux, Trost and Blaney will not win a majority of the 300 or so ridings.

And agreed, Alexander will finish ahead of Saxton, Obrhai, and Peterson on the first ballot.

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Newfoundlander, Chris Alexander may well finish 9th or 10th on the first ballot tally, but I predict that he will contest the last tally against Bernier.

[Newfoundlander]

7 hours ago, August1991 said:

Agreed. Lemieux, Trost and Blaney will not win a majority of the 300 or so ridings.

And agreed, Alexander will finish ahead of Saxton, Obrhai, and Peterson on the first ballot.

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Newfoundlander, Chris Alexander may well finish 9th or 10th on the first ballot tally, but I predict that he will contest the last tally against Bernier.

 

How? It would be impossible under the rules.

You only get someone's second place votes once they drop off. Alexander isn't going to get enough support from Saxton, Obrhai, and Peterson to start leapfrogging over those in the upper tier. If polls are to be believed support for those three will only equal a few of percentage points, likely having little impact on the results. 

According to the Mainstreet/iPolitics poll, support for the bottom seven candidates combined doesn't even equal 9%. If their polls are accurate at all, then even after they all drop off it will only have had a small impact on the race. 

https://ipolitics.ca/2017/04/20/cpc-poll-oleary-still-leading-but-bernier-not-far-behind/

[August1991]

On 4/21/2017 at 8:05 AM, Newfoundlander said:

How? It would be impossible under the rules.

You only get someone's second place votes once they drop off....

When O'Leary is eliminated (and he will be), his second-choice ballots will go where?

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Newfoundlander, it is all about second-choice ballots.

[Derek 2.0]

29 minutes ago, August1991 said:

When O'Leary is eliminated (and he will be), his second-choice ballots will go where?

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Newfoundlander, it is all about second-choice ballots.

 

That is the rub...........I wonder how many (new) members intent on voting for O'Leary have actually considered their 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc picks...........

 

 

What scares me as a party member, someone that will not vote for O'Leary or Leitch, is that people that will, end up marking both of these two as 1st or 2nd on their ballot.......anything could happen if Bernier doesn't win in the 2nd round.

[Newfoundlander]

4 hours ago, August1991 said:

When O'Leary is eliminated (and he will be), his second-choice ballots will go where?

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Newfoundlander, it is all about second-choice ballots.

 

 

That would mean Alexander would have to finish ahead of O'Leary. How would he ever finish ahead of O'Leary?

Yes, it's all about second, third choice etc. But you still need to have enough first ballot support in order to pick up other candidates second or third choice votes. Alexander is polling at ~2%.

It seems unlikely at this point that O'Leary won't make it into at least the top three. If he doesn't make it into the top two I'd say his supporters would likely go to Bernier.

Edited April 23, 2017 by Newfoundlander