betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 10 hours ago, BubberMiley said: If Trudeau stands up to Trump it will only help him politically, because Canadians don't like weak leaders who cave to loonie fascist bullies. https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/canadians-want-trudeau-to-stand-up-to-trump-even-if-it-leads-to-trade-war-poll/article33948451/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com& At first they'll applaud him. But wait till they start feeling the consequence. Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 4 hours ago, Omni said: I certainly don't envy Trudeau having to go deal with Trump now that the federal courts have continued to shut down his attempt at a racist ban. I'm interested to see how childish his tantrum over that will be. Ban thwarted by appellate courts or not, I don't envy Trudeau having to go deal with Trump at all. Period. Would you envy Bambi meeting with Godzilla? You can't even compare this meeting to Biblical David facing Goliath for a morale booster...... ...............since by the looks of it........ ........this time around - being prayed for by Evangelicals and winning against all odds ......... .............God is on "Goliath's" side! Edited February 10, 2017 by betsy Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) Apparently, Shinzo Abe of Japan shares some ideology with Trump, which includes his views on immigration. If what is reported here is true, it's not a surprise that Trump has really put out the welcome mat for Japan's PM. Quote Now that Mr. Trump has formally abandoned the Trans-Pacific Partnership multilateral trade deal — on which Mr. Abe expended considerable domestic political capital — Mr. Abe will be looking to sound out Mr. Trump on the possibility of negotiating a future bilateral trade deal between the two countries. How will Abe try to persuade Trump that economic alliances with Japan could also benefit the U.S.? Mr. Abe has also indicated that Japanese companies or the government could invest in American infrastructure. He told members of Parliament that he wanted to sell Japan’s bullet train technology in the United States so that states could build high-speed rail links and create jobs doing so. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/09/world/asia/trump-abe-meeting-japan-trade-defense.html?_r=0 Are we competing with Japan? Edited February 10, 2017 by betsy Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) If all goes well between Japan and Trump today (and this week-end)......... ........Trudeau meets with him on Monday, telling Trump we're USA's #1 trade partner as a negotiation point of argument - that USA needs us too - wouldn't sound too convincing anymore. Trudeau needs to come up with Plan B. Edited February 10, 2017 by betsy Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 Ivanka Trump is popular in Japan. Quote But Trump offers an example of how to be strong but not scary, said Yuriko Shinzato, 32, a freelance writer and mother of a 6-year-old daughter. “She is a good example that a woman can do an outstanding job and handle a misogynist father like Trump, without pushing too much of a feminist agenda or confronting men too much,” Shinzato, who blogs about Ivanka Trump's fashion and lifestyle, told the Japan Times. “That is something that Japanese women want but have a hard time doing in a still male-dominated society.” As a result, the Trump daughter has quite a following here. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/01/25/japanese-arent-so-sure-about-donald-trump-but-they-love-ivanka/?utm_term=.63adb8ee3edc Quote
Moonbox Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 17 hours ago, betsy said: Obama and Trudeau? Unfriendly? Boy.....that was the greatest "bromance" that ever was. That was a worthless relationship. With Trudeau just getting started, and Obama on his way out, there was never going to much there other than mutual ingratiation and fluff-pieces on them smiling and patting each other on the back. Despite his popularity here, Obama was never much of a friend to Canada and the Harper/Obama relationship was exceptionally frosty. 17 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said: No, it is the very meaning of "leverage" in any negotiation. "Co-operation" with Canada so far has meant that Canada has access to the largest economy in the world, American capital investment, American defense and federal agency expenditures, etc., while Canada contributes markedly less to the relationship. For instance, there are no Canadian owned car/truck assembly plants in the United States. So what does Canada bring to the table besides raw materials? I don't even know where to start with this comment. Literally everything you said was nonsense. Your grasp of economics and trade is poor and your understanding of negotiating and bi-lateral relations is worse. We get access to the largest economy in the world? Cool. You get access to 10th largest. Apparently the US ends up on the losing end of that deal somehow...I guess because #1 is bigger than #10? 18 hours ago, bush_cheney2004 said: This has changed as China has is now the USA's #1 trading partner and Mexico closes the gap with Canada. It is less about dirt and more about balance for U.S. trade interests that are not so dependent on one nation. Canada should have diversified exports long ago. Also, Canada has protectionist trade barriers that Trump is right to question (e.g. dairy). Canada is by far and away the US's largest destination for exports and the two countries enjoy (mostly) balanced trade. You're running a $300 billion trade deficit with China every year. The US has protectionist trade barriers just like Canada does. Don't cherry-pick your data. Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 5 hours ago, betsy said: Trudeau needs to come up with Plan B. Plan B is we send our self identified right-wing "old stock" to the US, and give Trump a chance at his coveted majority. Win-win. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Moonbox said: I don't even know where to start with this comment. Literally everything you said was nonsense. Your grasp of economics and trade is poor and your understanding of negotiating and bi-lateral relations is worse. We get access to the largest economy in the world? Cool. You get access to 10th largest. Apparently the US ends up on the losing end of that deal somehow...I guess because #1 is bigger than #10? The point being that the U.S. has a stronger negotiating position for changes to existing trade arrangements, now and in the future. Canada's entire economy is smaller than the state of California's. - Canada wants (another) bitumen pipeline across the U.S., and seemingly is paralyzed to build one east-west in Canada...advantage Trump. - Canada's military cannot meet NATO and NORAD obligations simultaneously...advantage Trump. - Canada needs/wants continued U.S. capital investment in Canada...advantage Trump. - Canada has poorly developed/diversified export markets beyond the USA...advantage Trump. Quote Canada is by far and away the US's largest destination for exports and the two countries enjoy (mostly) balanced trade. You're running a $300 billion trade deficit with China every year. The US has protectionist trade barriers just like Canada does. Don't cherry-pick your data. Canadian business media has routinely reported that Canada no longer enjoys the U.S. trade advantages that it has in the past for several reasons. Mexico has made great gains in U.S. trade as well. The U.S. is not as dependent on exports as is Canada. Edited February 10, 2017 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 Canada is the largest export market for the US, and the largest export market for 35 of the states. - Advantage Trudeau. Note that Mexico is the second largest export market for the US, and the trade deficit that Trump likes to complain about is peanuts when compared to China which has a trade deficit 5 times higher than Mexico. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 11 minutes ago, ?Impact said: Canada is the largest export market for the US, and the largest export market for 35 of the states. - Advantage Trudeau. Note that Mexico is the second largest export market for the US, and the trade deficit that Trump likes to complain about is peanuts when compared to China which has a trade deficit 5 times higher than Mexico. China has already proven to be a much larger trade opportunity than Canada (e.g. General Motors). China is a much larger, growing market. Mexico and right-to-work states have already taken automotive investment and jobs away from Canada. 35 U.S. states are not dependent on Canada for 75% of exports. How many Canadian auto/truck assembly plants are in the U.S. or Mexico. I will wait while the counting begins, but it shouldn't take long to count all the way up to...ZERO. Edited February 10, 2017 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Moonbox Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said: The point being that the U.S. has a stronger negotiating position for changes to existing trade arrangements, now and in the future. Canada's entire economy is smaller than the state of California's. - Canada wants (another) bitumen pipeline across the U.S., and seemingly is paralyzed to build one east-west in Canada...advantage Trump. - Canada's military cannot meet NATO and NORAD obligations simultaneously...advantage Trump. - Canada needs/wants continued U.S. capital investment in Canada...advantage Trump. - Canada has poorly developed/diversified export markets beyond the USA...advantage Trump. Canadian business media has routinely reported that Canada no longer enjoys the U.S. trade advantages that it has in the past for several reasons. Mexico has made great gains in U.S. trade as well. The U.S. is not as dependent on exports as is Canada. Trade negotiations aren't zero-sum. The idea of "leverage" and "advantage" is juvenile and shows a profoundly poor understanding of basic negotiating and trade economics in general. The whole point of world trade is to take advantage of specialization and scale so that both sides "win". There's no question that Canada depends more on US trade than vice-versa, but that doesn't mean that a trade war would help the US. Because of how balanced the trade across the border is, the US would likely suffer just the same in in terms of $'s lost. The only difference is that the effect wouldn't be felt as widely. It'd be border and coastal states, and the Rust Belt in particular, that would suffer. Colorado and Texas probably wouldn't care much though! Edited February 10, 2017 by Moonbox Quote "A man is no more entitled to an opinion for which he cannot account than he is for a pint of beer for which he cannot pay" - Anonymous
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 At the press conference, Japan's PM is on first-name basis with Trump. Trump talks of friendship with Abe. Shinzo Abe was talking about the bullet train from Washington to New York. There goes Bombardier? Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Moonbox said: Trade negotiations aren't zero-sum. The idea of "leverage" and "advantage" is juvenile and shows a profoundly poor understanding of basic negotiating and trade economics in general. The whole point of world trade is to take advantage of specialization and scale so that both sides "win". It is not juvenile at all, otherwise strict trade protocols would not be negotiated. President Trump and others have explicitly expressed a desire for policies that favour the U.S. and American workers more compared to the past. Quote There's no question that Canada depends more on US trade than vice-versa, but that doesn't mean that a trade war would help the US. A trade war would hurt and help the U.S. in the long term, spurring more domestic investment in manufacturing and services. President Trump's trade strategies include reductions in corporate taxes, deregulation, and leverage against currency manipulation. Trump has already challenged the TPP/NAFTA status quo, and was rewarded for it. U.S. politicians don't get votes by protecting Canadian jobs. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, betsy said: At the press conference, Japan's PM is on first-name basis with Trump. Trump talks of friendship with Abe. Shinzo Abe was talking about the bullet train from Washington to New York. There goes Bombardier? Agreed...Japan is ready to compete. Is Canada ? Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 1 hour ago, bush_cheney2004 said: China has already proven to be a much larger trade opportunity than Canada (e.g. General Motors). How many US jobs, and export dollars are those Made in China under General Motors brand automobiles going to create? China is not going to fix Detroit. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, ?Impact said: How many US jobs, and export dollars are those Made in China under General Motors brand automobiles going to create? China is not going to fix Detroit. General Motors is more than just Detroit. Canadians work at GM Canada....Chinese work at GM China. In the United States, it is just called GM. Ever wonder why so many U.S. owned subsidiaries have the word "Canada" in their name ? Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: General Motors is more than just Detroit. Canadians work at GM Canada....Chinese work at GM China. In the United States, it is just called GM. Ever wonder why so many U.S. owned subsidiaries have the word "Canada" in their name ? and your point is? b.t.w. Last year the trade deficit with China was almost $350 billion. Yes it might be a slight improvement on 2015, but that is simply because the US bought about $20 billion less from China, while China bought only $1 billion less from the US. Trade with China is declining, and their purchase of US goods has been declining since 2013. Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 1 minute ago, ?Impact said: and your point is? b.t.w. Last year the trade deficit with China was almost $350 billion. Yes it might be a slight improvement on 2015, but that is simply because the US bought about $20 billion less from China, while China bought only $1 billion less from the US. Trade with China is declining, and their purchase of US goods has been declining since 2013. Trade value with Canada has declined as well. Canada can no longer presume a "special relationship" when it comes to trade with the U.S. China's up side is far greater than Canada for U.S. investment and trade. Quote America doesn’t need Canada anymore — at least not nearly like it used to. The share of U.S. imports that come from Canada has hit its lowest point in decades, lower than at any point since the U.S. and Canada entered into free trade in the late 1980s, Desjardins Economics says. Canada’s share of U.S. imports fell to 13.2 per cent in 2015, down from 18.5 per cent in 1990 and 19 per cent in 2000, Desjardins senior economist Francis Généreux wrote in a report issued Wednesday. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/02/17/canada-share-us-imports-lowest-record_n_9253914.html Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Trade value with Canada has declined as well. The US has over 30 times the trade deficit with China compared to Canada. China is interested in selling stuff to the US, not buying. You can't pretend that away by ignoring it. Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 44 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Agreed...Japan is ready to compete. Is Canada ? The problem is Trudeau. I think the meeting will be more like Trump declaring: either my way, or the highway. Which is it, boy? Edited February 10, 2017 by betsy Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 Just now, ?Impact said: The US has over 30 times the trade deficit with China compared to Canada. China is interested in selling stuff to the US, not buying. You can't pretend that away by ignoring it. The China "file" is separate from Canada....the U.S. can manage bi-lateral trade in its own best interest. Boeing can sell more airliners to China than to Canada. Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, betsy said: The problem is Trudeau. I think the meeting will be more like Trump declaring: either my way, or the highway. Which is it, boy? Agreed....President Trump has explicitly stated that it is his goal to change the status quo on many things, including trade. What can Trudeau bring to the table besides more poorly vetted refugees and immigrants ? Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
?Impact Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Boeing can sell more airliners to China than to Canada. We will see if Bombardier can firm up those orders with Leong air and CDB leasing. 1 minute ago, bush_cheney2004 said: What can Trudeau bring to the table besides more poorly vetted refugees and immigrants ? Sanity Quote
betsy Posted February 10, 2017 Author Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 2 minutes ago, bush_cheney2004 said: Agreed....President Trump has explicitly stated that it is his goal to change the status quo on many things, including trade. What can Trudeau bring to the table besides more poorly vetted refugees and immigrants ? He'll be grilled by Trump! Trudeau has a lot of explaining to do! I bet, it'll start with that tweet abut welcoming everyone to Canada! Edited February 10, 2017 by betsy Quote
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 10, 2017 Report Posted February 10, 2017 (edited) 5 minutes ago, ?Impact said: We will see if Bombardier can firm up those orders with Leong air and CDB leasing. Sanity Bombardier has been a basket case so long, it cannot survive without constant bailouts that Canadian taxpayers grow more impatient with. Nothing special about Trudeau or Canada when it comes to poker with the United States. Trudeau knows that Canada desperately depends on exports to the U.S. Edited February 10, 2017 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
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