Britain Sets Date for EU Referendum -- Brexit

[Wilber]

Scotland would be even worse off separating from the UK now than it would have been last referendum. The price of its diminishing supply of north sea oil is less than half what it was then, and separating from the UK now would put national borders right in their face, where it wouldn't have before. I have to assume most of their trade is with the UK and now that the UK won't be part of the Eurozone they'd have to have inspections and taxes at the border.

Northern Ireland will never separate from the UK until it's got a majority Catholic population that wants to rejoin the Irish Republic.

What does that have to do with anything?

"Persians would rather govern themselves badly than be governed well by others" Lord Curzon.

History is full of examples that demonstrate how right he was. How many African countries were better of economically under colonial rule than under the completely corrupt and often brutal dictators who rule them now? None of them are asking their colonial masters to return.

Nationalism has little to do with logic or economics. The likelihood that Britain will be worse off outside the EU didn't stop England from voting to leave. London the financial and economic centre of the country voted to stay in the EU and that is interesting because it was Montreal which prevented the Oui side from winning our last referendum.

Like it or not, everything is on the table now.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Wilber

[Big Guy]

Yes, the front and centre point made by the leave campaign, the one and only point emblazoned in huge lettering on the side of their campaign bus, was that leaving the EU would put £350 a week into the NHS. We found out, only a couple of hours after the leave side won from Nigel Farage leader of the UKIP that was a "mistake", in other words a big lie.

It now appears that there were many misconceptions by those who voted on both sides. Exit interviews indicate that many "leave" voters believed that their vote would force the EU to give the UK a better deal once re-negotiations took place. With the EU now on record of telling the UK to "hurry up and get out" it seems that gambit was not working.

I am an old Yogi Berra fan - he of "It ain't over till its over". I will believe that Donald Trump is the Republican candidate for president only on July 27 when the convention is over. I believe that the UK will leave the EU when the UK leaves the EU - and not before then. What one PM says and does is not binding on another PM and government. An election can be called at any time and a party running strictly on staying in the EU may find itself winning a majority - the UK is a first-past-the-post democracy. It ain't over till the fat lady sings and the fat lady is just warming up.

The UK leaving the EU would be a major blow for American interests. The UK has been the voice in that organization for US policies and especially regarding the application of sanctions against other nations. If the UK left, the remaining nations do not march to the USA drummer.

Everyone wants to see stability and certainty. A protracted negotiation between the UK and EU will not provide that and the world economy will continue to suffer. I believe that we will see this resolved sooner rather than later. The rest of the world will demand it.

[Derek 2.0]

So how exactly does a weaker Canadian dollar hurt us?

It results in higher domestic prices for goods and increases importing and finance costs for business and government.

How? Do you think that the UK not being a part of Europe is going to result in lower demand for commodities by China?

Perhaps the UK will now be purchasing a lot more agricultural goods from Canada, once they're no longer required to purchase them from the heavily subsidized European Union farmers.

Commodities are priced in USD globally, and commodities prices and the Canadian economy are forever tied together......if our dollar is worth less, so to are our commodities.

The United Kingdom has always been free to purchase Canadian agricultural goods regardless of being in the EU.....

[scribblet]

You bet your bottom Canadian dollar that will be the case....There is already over a million petition signed for EU referendum rule triggering a 2nd EU referendum

That petition is a fraud, bots at work.. 39,000 sigs. from Vatican City hmmmm

[Derek 2.0]

Yup, the beatings will continue till moral improves. "United" Kingdom, my ass.

There is no reason for "beatings"........Scotland currently does ~three times the trade with the rest of the United Kingdom then it does with the EU....if the EU put tariffs on UK trade going forward, Scotland couldn't afford to join the EU. If the EU doesn't put tariffs on UK trade, which is likely due to the reliance of the German economy on UK trade, there is no economic reason for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom.

[BC_chick]

But our politicians and business leaders tell us that there will be direct negative impact on us if we don't ratify TPP. Aside from Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump they seem unanimous on the point.

When I look at reactions like Jacee's, how can I not think that anger over the xenophobes winning is what's really burning people up over this result?

-k

So you're taking one poster on MLW and without referencing any particular posts they made, you are making heaping generalizations about what 'progressives' are really thinking even though most of the critical posts have been discussing the financial ramifications.

And your reason for knowing better than them what they're thinking is because you can't distinguish between potential* economic benefits of a regional free trade agreement (that will not be reaped) and the global impact of a major banking centre pulling out of an established* constitutional unity of nations.

[Wilber]

There is no reason for "beatings"........Scotland currently does ~three times the trade with the rest of the United Kingdom then it does with the EU....if the EU put tariffs on UK trade going forward, Scotland couldn't afford to join the EU. If the EU doesn't put tariffs on UK trade, which is likely due to the reliance of the German economy on UK trade, there is no economic reason for Scotland to leave the United Kingdom.

Logic didn't put the UK where it is today.

[Derek 2.0]

Scotland would be even worse off separating from the UK now than it would have been last referendum. The price of its diminishing supply of north sea oil is less than half what it was then, and separating from the UK now would put national borders right in their face, where it wouldn't have before. I have to assume most of their trade is with the UK and now that the UK won't be part of the Eurozone they'd have to have inspections and taxes at the border.

I agree 100%......leaving North Sea oil aside, which the UK might not "give" to the Scots, Scotland receives far more spending from Westminster then it contributes......akin to a have not Province.

Northern Ireland will never separate from the UK until it's got a majority Catholic population that wants to rejoin the Irish Republic.

That and the fact that the Irish Republic couldn't afford Ulster........

[Derek 2.0]

Logic didn't put the UK where it is today.

No, but reality did. As it stands, Scotland wouldn't be admitted into the EU (absent rule changes) based on economics alone........but lets say the declining EU lowered the bar (because they need more Greek like economies), the Spanish would veto their entry out of fear of Catalonian independence.

Scotland can remain in the United Kingdom or go live under the proverbial bridge with all the FREEDOM they want.

[CITIZEN_2015]

It may not be too bad for Britain to leave. Immigration is a concern for many British citizens. The face of the country has changed compared to 70's and 80's and not necessarily for better and with so many eastern European countries joining EU with free passports to travel and remain in the UK it got worse recently. The British currency and economy will fall for a little while and after a while they will adjust. The Scots maybe tempted to vote for independence but when it comes to it they would again realize that staying in the UK would benefit them more than leaving.

[kactus]

What does that have to do with anything?

"Persians would rather govern themselves badly than be governed well by others" Lord Curzon.

Well, one might argue that the Persians did have the chance to govern themselves with a democratically elected government before the West (US and UK) deprived them from this chance through the 1953 coup....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/cia-admits-role-1953-iranian-coup

The point is history is full of examples of the West's interference with Middle East and elsewhere for their own benefits and when the reality bites and there is a surge of immigrants/ refugees from those parts of the world then the blame is squarely placed on them...

Edited June 26, 2016 by kactus

[BC_chick]

It may not be too bad for Britain to leave. Immigration is a concern for many British citizens. The face of the country has changed compared to 70's and 80's and not necessarily for better and with so many eastern European countries joining EU with free passports to travel and remain in the UK it got worse recently. The British currency and economy will fall for a little while and after a while they will adjust. The Scots maybe tempted to vote for independence but when it comes to it they would again realize that staying in the UK would benefit them more than leaving.

I blame Merkel a lot for this aspect of things. She refused to give Britain more freedom on the immigration issue.

The world markets will recover with enough time but as a net importer with no EU backing, England is going to have a tough time on its own. Especially with a weak currency and a financial sector that faces uncertainty.

It remains to be seen how bad it will get but this could potentially devastate Britain for a very long period.

My husband and I both have a lot of family living there. If it weren't for them, I would be laughing my butt off at this self-inflicted wound.

[Wilber]

No, but reality did. As it stands, Scotland wouldn't be admitted into the EU (absent rule changes) based on economics alone........but lets say the declining EU lowered the bar (because they need more Greek like economies), the Spanish would veto their entry out of fear of Catalonian independence.

Scotland can remain in the United Kingdom or go live under the proverbial bridge with all the FREEDOM they want.

You can bet Sturgeon is sounding out Merkel and company as we sit here. I find it amusing that you now expect the Scots to demonstrate the economic common sense the English just rejected.

[TimG]

You can bet Sturgeon is sounding out Merkel and company as we sit here. I find it amusing that you now expect the Scots to demonstrate the economic common sense the English just rejected.

The English only voted for short term chaos as institutions are disrupted and uncertainty rules. Once the dust settles and England negotiates a new free trade agreement with the EU there is no reason to believe England will not succeed as a state. Scotland, on the other hand, does not appear have the economic base that would allow it to maintain its current standard of living on its own inside or outside the EU. More importantly, Scotland needs free trade with the England given that most of their exports go to the England so Scotland in the EU will need a free trade agreement with England as much as England needs an FTA with the EU. Edited June 26, 2016 by TimG

[Derek 2.0]

You can bet Sturgeon is sounding out Merkel and company as we sit here. I find it amusing that you now expect the Scots to demonstrate the economic common sense the English just rejected.

I agree with much of what Tim said above, further to that, the UK and not the EU are in the drivers seat with regards to trade........The UK can buy consumer goods from anyone, but the Germans need the UK market for their own economic well being........which is why the Germans are already floating among the EU a relationship with the UK similar as to what the EU currently has with Norway.

Scotland is not in such a position......assuming the UK allowed the Scots to keep North Sea oil, the Scots key industries (Oil/power generation and defense/shipbuilding) are reliant upon trade with the UK.......The Royal Navy and BAE will pull the plug on such industries in Scotland, the Welsh/Northern England power grid will no longer be under the control of Scottish Power and the UK will spend foreign currency on purchasing oil from cheaper suppliers as opposed to the North Sea (one of the most expensive places to produce oil on the planet).

Scotland is already an economic basketcase, and will only be more so outside of the UK........unlike Scotland, the UK has centuries of economic precedent operating outside of the EU (and now doesn't have an expensive Empire to maintain).......if, as already is being branded about, fast track trade deals are signed between the United States, Canada and the EU, after the short term instability, the UK will return to normalcy (or better) and not be beholden to billions of dollars given the to the EU each year.

[Wilber]

The English only voted for short term chaos as institutions are disrupted and uncertainty rules. Once the dust settles and England negotiates a new free trade agreement with the EU there is no reason to believe England will not succeed as a state. Scotland, on the other hand, does not appear have the economic base that would allow it to maintain its current standard of living on its own inside or outside the EU. More importantly, Scotland needs free trade with the England given that most of their exports go to the England so Scotland in the EU will need a free trade agreement with England as much as England needs an FTA with the EU.

That's the official line but you have no evidence to back it up. So you to expect the Scots to be smarter than the English when it comes to determining their economic future. The same arguments were put to the English advising them to remain but were ignored. It was all about putting it to the man even if it means screwing yourself. Cameron asked, who would vote for a recession? We now know the answer.

The EU will be as hard as it can on Britain because they don't want others getting the idea that leaving doesn't have consequences. You know, the kind of treatment Derek would prescribe for an uppity Scotland.

I've no doubt they could both survive as countries, the question is, will they be countries you would want to live in.

[Wilber]

Well, one might argue that the Persians did have the chance to govern themselves with a democratically elected government before the West (US and UK) deprived them from this chance through the 1953 coup....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat

CIA admits role in 1953 Iranian coup

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/19/cia-admits-role-1953-iranian-coup

The point is history is full of examples of the West's interference with Middle East and elsewhere for their own benefits and when the reality bites and there is a surge of immigrants/ refugees from those parts of the world then the blame is squarely placed on them...

I wasn't making a case for colonialism, just pointing out that there is no relationship between nationalism and good government or good judgment. We experienced that last Thursday.

Edited June 26, 2016 by Wilber

[Derek 2.0]

That's the official line but you have no evidence to back it up. So you to expect the Scots to be smarter than the English when it comes to determining their economic future. The same arguments were put to the English advising them to remain but were ignored. It was all about putting it to the man even if it means screwing yourself. Cameron asked, who would vote for a recession? We now know the answer.

There is plenty of evidence.......internal trade in the UK is not a secret.

The EU will be as hard as it can on Britain because they don't want others getting the idea that leaving doesn't have consequences. You know, the kind of treatment Derek would prescribe for an uppity Scotland.

No it won't, or the Germans will leave.......as the Germans need the UK market, likewise, the shortfall in funding to the EU, from the UK leaving, will be placed squarely at the feet of the Germans.......in effect, a double whammy.

[Derek 2.0]

And it looks like the petition for a "do-over" was BS:

The poll was manufactured by 4Chan and Anonymous hackers who loaded up the signatures with fake names from The Vatican, Ghana, North Korea and elsewhere.

[TimG]

So you to expect the Scots to be smarter than the English when it comes to determining their economic future.

Maybe not. My point is the economic case for the UK outside the EU is plausible - even if painful.

The economic case for Scotland on its own is non-existent.

The EU will be as hard as it can on Britain because they don't want others getting the idea that leaving doesn't have consequences. You know, the kind of treatment Derek would prescribe for an uppity Scotland.

Derek is being absurd. If the Scots want to leave they can. But the EU is going to have to do some soul searching because the structural problems that led to UK vote. The entire EU project was a dubious proposition to start with.

[Argus]

It results in higher domestic prices for goods and increases importing and finance costs for business and government.

No, interest rates affect finance costs, not the cost of the dollar, unless you borrow in US funds, which would be dumb.

And while it does result in increased costs for imported goods that encourages people to buy locally produced goods, and is more than offset by the fact we can sell goods abroad more cheaply - or for the same price but take a higher profit. A big chunk of my income, for example, is in the USD, so a weaker Canadian D is great as far as I'm concerned.

Commodities are priced in USD globally, and commodities prices and the Canadian economy are forever tied together......if our dollar is worth less, so to are our commodities.

No. You have that backwards. Since commodities are priced in USD we simply make more money off selling them once it's converted into CDND

The United Kingdom has always been free to purchase Canadian agricultural goods regardless of being in the EU.....

But foreign goods imported into the EU which competed with locally produced goods are always taxed to give the EU variety an advantage. That includes agricultural products.

[Argus]

I blame Merkel a lot for this aspect of things. She refused to give Britain more freedom on the immigration issue.

Merkel and the others didn't take the likelihood of Brexit seriously. Plus, if she gave the UK too much others would ask for the same. The whole EU establishment is rotten and needs reworking anyway.

But let’s not be bamboozled by the official reaction to the Brexit vote, which conveys the impression Britain is a nation of xenophobic nutbars for wanting to leave such a beautiful political Shangri-La where freedom, prosperity and the highest standards of political and economic policy-making prevail.

British voters are proposing to leave a slow-growth fiscal disaster zone mired in sclerotic regulation and over-regulation, persistent protectionism, mismanaged immigration policy and an often corrupt political structure controlled by unaccountable power brokers with occasional thuggish tendencies.

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/terence-corcoran-dont-be-bamboozled-brexit-creates-huge-opportunities-for-the-u-k

The similarities between the levels of public discontent in the United Kingdom and the United States are that the countries are angry and fearful at job losses to unfair trade agreements. and unwise and illegal immigration, and at the lassitude and patronizing detachment of their executive and legislative leaders. In Britain, the special flourish is the anti-democratic nature of the Brussels authority that intrudes more and more constantly into the lives of average people. Brussels is essentially supranational civil servants issuing an unceasing torrent of authoritarian directives down on all parts of life in the EU. This imposition has grated steadily on the British, from the display of bananas in supermarkets to the (one-size-fits-all) size of condoms, to the revocability of the decisions of the highest courts of the United Kingdom by the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-a-fresh-start-for-europe

Edited June 26, 2016 by Argus

[Wilber]

There is plenty of evidence.......internal trade in the UK is not a secret.

No it won't, or the Germans will leave.......as the Germans need the UK market, likewise, the shortfall in funding to the EU, from the UK leaving, will be placed squarely at the feet of the Germans.......in effect, a double whammy.

No country can prosper on internal trade. Britain had a deal with Europe, now it has nothing. Everything is on the table for both sides and Britain won't be dealing from a position of strength.

[Derek 2.0]

No, interest rates affect finance costs, not the cost of the dollar, unless you borrow in US funds, which would be dumb.

And while it does result in increased costs for imported goods that encourages people to buy locally produced goods, and is more than offset by the fact we can sell goods abroad more cheaply - or for the same price but take a higher profit. A big chunk of my income, for example, is in the USD, so a weaker Canadian D is great as far as I'm concerned.

And interest rates from the Bank of Canada are tied to?

No. You have that backwards. Since commodities are priced in USD we simply make more money off selling them once it's converted into CDND

No, foreign buyers (see United States) have greater purchasing power over Canadian goods, in effect, they get a discount..........this is common sense, if what you were saying was true, the Canadian economy wouldn't have contracted due to the price of oil..........the price of oil declined (a commodity), as did the Canadian dollar, followed by the buying power of Canadian consumers.

But foreign goods imported into the EU which competed with locally produced goods are always taxed to give the EU variety an advantage. That includes agricultural products.

Your point? Outside the EU, the UK will still be able to purchase European produce.....unless you think the EU will charge the UK more to purchase their products

Of course the Germans (you know where you said you were born sometimes) want to continue with free trade with the UK, fore the Germans are reliant upon UK consumers purchasing their goods.........the same will be true of produce, dairy, livestock etc......I don't know why you think Canada will all of a sudden benefit from this......

[Derek 2.0]

No country can prosper on internal trade. Britain had a deal with Europe, now it has nothing. Everything is on the table for both sides and Britain won't be dealing from a position of strength.

England doesn't need Scotland to prosper, Scotland is an economic drag for the rest of the UK....inversely...Scotland needs the rest of the UK to sell the majority of its goods, namely O&G, expensive energy and shipbuilding/defense products.