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What is Behind the Oil Crisis?


Big Guy

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I was especially interested in the idea that it is Saudi Arabia trying to force American shale and tight oil companies out of business.

This has been the main theory since the OPEC meeting late last year where shortly thereafter oil prices started to drop. They're also trying to but the Canadian oil sands out of business, which has only recently been producing high amounts because oil prices were previously too low to make the higher costs of oil sands extraction profitable.

Why is the rest of the world allowing the Saudi's to create so many problems?

They're our ally, best not to make enemies with one of the biggest oil producer in the world in the messiest geopoitical region in the world. I'd imagine there would be whispers of war if it happened to be Iran, Iraq, or Syria doing this.

"All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain

Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.

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Don't believe anything Fareed Zakaria says unless it is confirmed by outside sources! The only value of his writing is as a window into the thinking inside the power centers of Washington, and what messages they want to disseminate to the public.

Why do you say this? Can you name a more intelligent journalist in the MSM? He has a PhD in Government from Harvard, and is an expert in international relations. He's also pretty pragmatic and moderate.

"All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain

Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.

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They're our ally, best not to make enemies with one of the biggest oil producer in the world in the messiest geopoitical region in the world.

Why not? The world has a glut of oil anyway. Frankly, oil this low probably hurts the US (and most definitely the Canadian) economy more than it helps it, there are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of lost profits among US and Canadian energy companies.

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Why not? The world has a glut of oil anyway. Frankly, oil this low probably hurts the US (and most definitely the Canadian) economy more than it helps it, there are hundreds of billions of dollars worth of lost profits among US and Canadian energy companies.

Sure. Because the current glut will last forever. Because markets work perfectly and always ensure the right supply.

Unlimited economic growth has the marvelous quality of stilling discontent while preserving privilege, a fact that has not gone unnoticed among liberal economists.

- Noam Chomsky

It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

- Upton Sinclair

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Sure. Because the current glut will last forever. Because markets work perfectly and always ensure the right supply.

No, the glut won't last forever. When it ends and oil prices go back up, that will just restimulate growth in other forms of energy (natural gas, renewables, etc) which is currently stalling due to abundance of cheap oil. The point is that unlike 10-20 years ago when the uninterrupted flow of middle-eastern oil was of paramount strategic importance, that is no longer the case today. Prices might go up and down, but Western nations now have enough options to keep the lights on with or without middle eastern oil.

Edited by Bonam
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Why do you say this? Can you name a more intelligent journalist in the MSM? He has a PhD in Government from Harvard, and is an expert in international relations. He's also pretty pragmatic and moderate.

I say I don't trust him because he is so well connected with people in power. In 2003, he denied/then later had to admit that he got to sit in on a planning session with Paul Wolfowitz and other Middle East analysts that...according to Bob Woodward, led to the report presented to Dubya making the case for invasion of Iraq. I know his political views are hard to nail down...sometimes he sounds liberal, sometimes conservative, sometimes moderate, but he's always working for the most important media centers in Washington....and I know that he's a plagiarist, because he had to admit to it on at least one subject he is not all-too familiar with - gun control.

Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

-- Kenneth Boulding,

1973

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What's behind the 'oil crisis', Saudi Arabia.

Why? Well the Saudi's hit multiple birds with one stone here: ISIS, Iran, Russia, Canadian Oil Sands, US Shale Oil.

Except that....at least according to the Wikipedia entry - Saudi Arabia's oil production peaked in March of this year at 10,3 million barrels per day, while the previous high was 10.2 million barrels per day in 2013. Looking at the graph on the same page covering 1950 to 2012, it shows production in recent years just reaching the highs set back around 1980. That doesn't sound like flooding the market/ more like falling demand.

Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

-- Kenneth Boulding,

1973

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Demand for oil is not very elastic. And the Saudis pumped 10.6 million barrels per day in June.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/saudi-arabia-hikes-oil-production-to-record-high-as-opec-expects-stronger-demand-in-2016

And 10.6 is still not that much higher than what they've been averaging over the last five years. The real problem is there's no consumer demand to spur economic growth and increase demand for oil...and there's no consumer demand because wages have stagnated for decades, and too many are already in debt and unable to keep buying more products.

Anybody who believers exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.

-- Kenneth Boulding,

1973

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I say I don't trust him because he is so well connected with people in power. In 2003, he denied/then later had to admit that he got to sit in on a planning session with Paul Wolfowitz and other Middle East analysts that...according to Bob Woodward, led to the report presented to Dubya making the case for invasion of Iraq.

If Zakaria denied involvement in the meeting it would be because he had to sign a confidentiality agreement. Apparently his name was also not on the report. Given his other stances on foreign policy, I highly doubt Zakaria would be a leading voice in supporting the 2003 Iraq invasion. That decision was also made in the 1990's by the neocons, they just needed the political power and excuse to invade.

....and I know that he's a plagiarist, because he had to admit to it on at least one subject he is not all-too familiar with - gun control.

Yes he did once plagiarize. That was shameful.

"All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain

Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.

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And 10.6 is still not that much higher than what they've been averaging over the last five years. The real problem is there's no consumer demand to spur economic growth and increase demand for oil...and there's no consumer demand because wages have stagnated for decades, and too many are already in debt and unable to keep buying more products.

There's no consumer demand so oil goes from over $100 to $38 in a year? I think there's more at play here. I also notice that although oil is today at it's lowest price in several years, gas prices in the Vancouver area remain around $1.27/litre. What a joke that is, last spring when oil was at $42, gas was around $1/ltr.

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There's no consumer demand so oil goes from over $100 to $38 in a year? I think there's more at play here. I also notice that although oil is today at it's lowest price in several years, gas prices in the Vancouver area remain around $1.27/litre. What a joke that is, last spring when oil was at $42, gas was around $1/ltr.

Yes, but you have to consider the USD/CAD exchange.

Also, oil is oil and gas is gas - there are often disconnects between the prices due to refinery maintenance schedules and break downs/strikes which impact the price of refining.

If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist)

My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx

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I know all that. There is price gouging going on right now, just as there is when oil goes up and gas goes up a dime per litre overnight. The oil stock they are refining into gas was purchased/valued at the cheaper price. The gas in the underground tanks at the gas stations was refined at the cheaper price. Yet they up the price on that cheaper gas anyway. It's just a fact.

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It's just a fact.

It's a free market so if you don't like the price then find another seller.... :lol:

If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist)

My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx

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I know all that. There is price gouging going on right now, just as there is when oil goes up and gas goes up a dime per litre overnight. The oil stock they are refining into gas was purchased/valued at the cheaper price. The gas in the underground tanks at the gas stations was refined at the cheaper price. Yet they up the price on that cheaper gas anyway. It's just a fact.

The best and most objective analysis for the cost of gas at the pump that I have located is at:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gas-prices-unravelling-the-mystery-of-what-you-pay-at-the-pump-1.2955763

That may or may not make the situation clearer.

Note - For those expecting a response from Big Guy: I generally do not read or respond to posts longer then 300 words nor to parsed comments.

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It's a rigged market and you sound like a seller. Either that or a dairy farmer.

No, sadly I'm a buyer.

Drive around 26,000 km per year in a car with a thirsty 325hp engine.

Next car will be electric and then the O&G industry can suck it!

If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist)

My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx

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It's a free market so if you don't like the price then find another seller.... :lol:

It's not really a free market in Canada, but I suppose that's beside the point. I'm driving around 33000km a year, and I'm fine with paying gas that has a profit margin for the companies involved. What I'm not happy with is what I described above, and I'm somewhat puzzled at your response. You seem fine with getting ripped off and I guess I'm not.

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What I'm not happy with is what I described above, and I'm somewhat puzzled at your response. You seem fine with getting ripped off and I guess I'm not.

I pay what I pay, no big deal as I can afford it.

Perhaps offsetting the cost from time to time by trading UWTI and/or USO has taken some of the sting out (though I find it more pleasurable to make money from DWTI because then oil is going down while my profits are going up).

But it will always be a hate/hate relationship. I'd rather drive a Tesla but I need another 200km of range to justify the price.

Edited by msj

If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist)

My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx

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Why is it better to be forced to buy electricity from a single supplier who has artificially inflated rates due to government mismanagement?

Don't live in Ontario so don't know other than less pollution.

If a believer demands that I, as a non-believer, observe his taboos in the public domain, he is not asking for my respect but for my submission. And that is incompatible with a secular democracy. Flemming Rose (Dutch journalist)

My biggest takeaway from economics is that the past wasn't as good as you remember, the present isn't as bad as you think, and the future will be better than you anticipate. Morgan Housel http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/14/things-im-pretty-sure-about.aspx

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