Greece? Add about 4% to Harper's Numbers

August1991 · July 3, 2015

Because of the crisis in Greece, you can add about 4% to Harper's CPC percentage on election day in October. About 2 voters in 100 will change camps making for a 4% increase.

Why?

Harper's not Greece

1. Greece is very, very bad news for the NDP. Pensioners, people who rely on government handouts, the so-called 47% hear stories from Greece and these stories (bank line-ups) have far more credibility than endless, complicated, leftist stories of government cuts, austerity, IMF policies. Add 2% or 1 voter in 100.

2. Such voters will likely say nothing/lie if phoned for a poll. In fact, they dislike Harper and prefer the NDP or Trudeau Jnr but they are simply afraid of losing their pension. They'll say one thing but vote Harper to avoid Greece. Add another vote on election day. - add another 2% to the Harper total.

If 2 voters in 100 switch to the Conservatives, you can add 4% to the CPC advance.

Edited July 3, 2015 by August1991

Moonlight Graham · July 3, 2015

Where did you get the 4% number? Seems like a wild guess.

Maybe it will help the CPC and hurt the NDP. But those people are ignorant. Harper's gov has been running deficits for many years until just recently, and social programs can be paid for and budgets balanced via decrease in involvement in middle-east wars and through higher taxes. Not that I'm supporting that, I'm just saying stating a simple economic fact. Greece is an extreme case. Many other social democracies, like the Scandinavian countries, have stable economies. Recently, Norway had a surplus where its revenues were 25% higher than expenditures, which is insane.

August1991 · July 3, 2015

Where did you get the 4% number? Seems like a wild guess.

MG, I made it up.

But 2 voters in 100 seems a reasonable guess. And if 2 voters in 100 switch sides, the CPC will get 4% more votes.

And why would 2 voters in 100 choose to vote for Harper? Le Confort et....

Edited July 3, 2015 by August1991

Evening Star · July 3, 2015

If it means more souvlaki and fresher olives, I'm on board. And I don't think I'm alone.

August1991 · July 3, 2015

If it means more souvlaki and fresher olives, I'm on board. And I don't think I'm alone.

Clearly, ES, you don't receive a pension nor depend on a State subsidy. And if you do, you foolishly believe that it is fixed, safe.

Harper: The surprising new friend of 2 voters in 100 who say that they despise Harper in public (Harper? Never!) but who will secretly vote for him because they fear losing their pension, Greek-style.

Edited July 3, 2015 by August1991

Second-class Canadian · July 3, 2015

Where did you get the 4% number? Seems like a wild guess.

Maybe it will help the CPC and hurt the NDP. But those people are ignorant. Harper's gov has been running deficits for many years until just recently, and social programs can be paid for and budgets balanced via decrease in involvement in middle-east wars and through higher taxes. Not that I'm supporting that, I'm just saying stating a simple economic fact. Greece is an extreme case. Many other social democracies, like the Scandinavian countries, have stable economies. Recently, Norway had a surplus where its revenues were 25% higher than expenditures, which is insane.

Scandinavian social-democracy is fundamentally different from the NDP's vision. I'll take Sweden as an example: They are very pro-free-trade and pro-privatization, preferring public-private partnerships over nationalization. They have a two-tiered heath care system, a national school voucher program, right-to-work laws, and no official minimum wage. These are all policies the NDP associates not with Scandinavian social-democracy, but with the US republican party and out-of-control capitalism.

I'm not disputing that Sweden is social democratic, just that the NDP's brand of labour socialism is fundamentally different and so incomparable with the Scandinavian model.

August1991 · July 3, 2015

Scandinavian social-democracy is fundamentally different from the NDP's vision.

Agreed. Scandinavian social-democracy is also, uh, hypocritical.

Despite being rich in oil and hydro, Norwegians pay about Cdn $2.50 per litre for gasoline and about 25 cents per kwh for electricity. The VAT is 25%. On average, Norwegians live in flats of about 1500 sq ft. They also freely tell everything personal to government bureaucrats.

Something else about Norwegians: They are not members of the EU, pay nothing to Brussels and they don't use the euro. Norwegians look at this Greek crisis and, well, laugh.

------

Imagine if Alberta stopped making equalization payments, separated from Canada, refused immigrants and became a benevolent police state. Then, it claimed the higher moral ground as a "civilized, progressive society".

Edited July 4, 2015 by August1991

Argus · July 4, 2015

Where did you get the 4% number? Seems like a wild guess.

Maybe it will help the CPC and hurt the NDP. But those people are ignorant.

Hardly, given how much extra money the NDP wants to spend, on everything under the sun.

Harper's gov has been running deficits for many years until just recently,

Most Canadians aren't going to hold him accountable for that given the NDP and Liberals were so strident in their demands for incentive spending.

and social programs can be paid for and budgets balanced via decrease in involvement in middle-east wars and through higher taxes.

Have a look at how much Sweden and Switzerland pay for Defense. We pay waaaaayyy less because we're part of alliances. But those alliances require a degree of cooperation and contribution towards mutual goals. You want to have your cake and eat it too. You want cheap defense spending but you don't want to have to do anything to support allies. The world doesn't work that way.

You want to go it alone? fine. Sweden has about 1 million reservists. I think Canada, which is more than three times bigger, has, uh, 26,000 or so.

Many other social democracies, like the Scandinavian countries, have stable economies. Recently, Norway had a surplus where its revenues were 25% higher than expenditures, which is insane.

Norway has a lot of oil and a small population. Sweden and Finland were very homogenous societies with strong work ethics until very recently. Now they've got a lot of third world immigrants, unemployment is going up and they're having to prune back the social spending.. Canada is not. Make our social programs strong as the Swedes and a third of the country will be on the dole.

Edited July 4, 2015 by Argus

Argus · July 4, 2015

Scandinavian social-democracy is fundamentally different from the NDP's vision. I'll take Sweden as an example: They are very pro-free-trade and pro-privatization, preferring public-private partnerships over nationalization. They have a two-tiered heath care system, a national school voucher program, right-to-work laws, and no official minimum wage. These are all policies the NDP associates not with Scandinavian social-democracy, but with the US republican party and out-of-control capitalism.

I'm not disputing that Sweden is social democratic, just that the NDP's brand of labour socialism is fundamentally different and so incomparable with the Scandinavian model.

And the NDP policy document calls for putting an end to public private partnerships, and cracking down on private for profit health clinics. It's business plans are fundamentally anti business, and they are fundamentally anti free trade.

WWWTT · July 4, 2015

Because of the crisis in Greece, you can add about 4% to Harper's CPC percentage on election day in October. About 2 voters in 100 will change camps making for a 4% increase.

LOL!

Canada is now officially in an recession, but somehow, someway, Canadians are going to ignore their own circumstances, and become so consumed with a small country on the other side of the world to the point where it will influence in how they will vote?????????

Ok if you say so.

Good luck with it!

WWWTT

August1991 · July 4, 2015

Canada is now officially in an recession, but somehow, someway, Canadians are going to ignore their own circumstances, and become so consumed with a small country on the other side of the world to the point where it will influence in how they will vote?????????

If you're a pensioner or someone receiving disability, sitting in Tim Horton's, this discussion matters.

Pensioners in Greece can't get their money. Harper pays.

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The Left has created this juggernaut so is it any surprise that people like Harper use it to their benefit.

Edited July 4, 2015 by August1991

Vancouver King · July 4, 2015

It appears the years have not been kind. Are you also investing in tin foil futures?

cybercoma · July 4, 2015

You're probably right. There's at least 2 voters out of 100 that are painfully ignorant.

DiazJenkins · July 4, 2015

You're probably right. There's at least 2 voters out of 100 that are painfully ignorant.

I agree with you.

August1991 · July 5, 2015

You're probably right. There's at least 2 voters out of 100 that are painfully ignorant.

They're not ignorant; they're in fact quite smart. As Thatcher said, "Socialists eventually run out of other people's money."

Like it or not, true or not of this Greek recession, this is the conclusion that at least 2 voters among 100 in Canada will draw from this Greek, uh, tragedy.

They understand that no society can long survive if people start working at 25 retire at 55 and live until they're 80 (meaning they work less than half their life) yet enjoy a lifestyle similar to their highest earning years.

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This stark Greek tragedy will make several voters in a hundred, people who will tell their friends and pollsters (if asked) that they like Trudeau Jnr and the NDP and even hate Harper, switch to put an X beside a Conservative candidate.

Thank God for the secret ballot. It's our protection against intimidation.

WWWTT · July 5, 2015

They're not ignorant; they're in fact quite smart. As Thatcher said, "Socialists eventually run out of other people's money."

Was Thatcher a poster on MLW?

Funny how those who worship her, do not hold her to the same standard as they hold other posters here to!

WWWTT

Evening Star · July 5, 2015

You're probably right. There's at least 2 voters out of 100 that are painfully ignorant.

I dunno, cyber, I think anyone who is engaged and aware enough to care that much about Greece's economic situation would also be too intelligent to somehow draw the conclusion that ... what? That 'socialism' has led to this crisis and the NDP is a 'socialist' party and, therefore, a vote for the NDP will lead to the same situation in Canada, regardless of the vast differences between the Greek and Canadian economies? And that, while we must be very careful to analyse the distinctions between successful Nordic social democracy and NDP policies, that level of care is completely unnecessary when it comes to equating NDP policies with 'socialist' Greek policies that have been implemented by, um, all the 'socialist' governments in Greece (even though Greece has been ruled by centre-right ND-led governments as much as by centre-left PASOK-led governments in recent years)? Anyone who believes that would not have voted NDP in the first place. Their vote swing will be balanced out by the souvlaki/olive vote.

Edited July 5, 2015 by Evening Star

Vancouver King · July 5, 2015

Extrapolating Greek economic woes onto Canada's election campaign is beyond absurd. I will guess our own current Conservative recession is infinitely more important to Canadian voters.

Let's give the author benefit of the doubt - he's pulling the forum's leg.

cybercoma · July 5, 2015

They're not ignorant; they're in fact quite smart. As Thatcher said, "Socialists eventually run out of other people's money."

With Thatcher's economics, capitalists will eventually run out of other people's money coming from the government too. At least with the socialists, others people's money actually does "trickle up."

Hal 9000 · July 5, 2015

Extrapolating Greek economic woes onto Canada's election campaign is beyond absurd. I will guess our own current Conservative recession is infinitely more important to Canadian voters.

Let's give the author benefit of the doubt - he's pulling the forum's leg.

I don't think its absurd. I don't know what the swing in voting numbers would be, but it will be something. Everybody is now talking about the Greek crisis, and hence the EU and if the european style of socialism is sustainable. Not saying there are big similarities, but coffee talk is different than what is brought out in a forum like this. And, many in the older generation don't distinguish one type of socialism from another.

The Alberta election and fallout from that in the next couple months will have an effect as well.

Many people will decide that things are pretty good and choose to just stay the course.

Evening Star · July 5, 2015

Has anyone in Canada, the US, or the UK ever referred to Greek as a model of social democracy? Is it any more socialist than Germany, which is one of its main creditors? This whole argument seems bizarre to me.

August1991 · July 5, 2015

I dunno, cyber, I think anyone who is engaged and aware enough to care that much about Greece's economic situation would also be too intelligent to somehow draw the conclusion that ... what? That 'socialism' has led to this crisis and the NDP is a 'socialist' party and, therefore, a vote for the NDP will lead to the same situation in Canada, regardless of the vast differences between the Greek and Canadian economies? And that, while we must be very careful to analyse the distinctions between successful Nordic social democracy and NDP policies...

Sorry, you kinda lost me at "Nordic Model" and "Pasok"....

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Here's my view: A few critical, practical Canadian voters (otherwise social liberals, pro NDP, people who like Trudeau Jnr's hair) will look at the Greek situation and decide that they want to receive their pension. On election day in October, they will put an X beside the name of a Conservative candidate. To friends, family and pollsters, about half of these voters will not say that they are voting Conservative in October.

Edited July 5, 2015 by August1991

Derek 2.0 · July 5, 2015

Here's my view: A few critical, practical Canadian voters (otherwise social liberals, pro NDP, people who like Trudeau Jnr's hair) will look at the Greek situation and decide that they want to receive their pension. On election day in October, they will put an X beside the name of a Conservative candidate. To friends, family and pollsters, about half of these voters will not say that they are voting Conservative in October.

Similar to the "Shy Tory" phenomenon, that results in Conservative/Tory parties often polling lower than actual results in an election.

jbg · July 5, 2015

Greece's voters are simply not going to underwrite the misuse of the loans and frankly, the bankers should have inquired as to the purpose of the lending. If the moneys were used for productive purposes, rather than government pensions and (while not being discussed) "capital flight," i.e. Swiss bank accounts of the well connected, this thread wouldn't be here.

Argus · July 6, 2015

Greece's voters are simply not going to underwrite the misuse of the loans and frankly, the bankers should have inquired as to the purpose of the lending. If the moneys were used for productive purposes, rather than government pensions and (while not being discussed) "capital flight," i.e. Swiss bank accounts of the well connected, this thread wouldn't be here.

Sorry, but wasn't the government which took out those loans elected by the Greek voters? Didn't the current pensioners vote for those governments and benefit from their largesse?