Which Federal Party Does Quebec Blowout Help?

[Big Guy]

The vast majority of people in Quebec have spoken. The Quebec Liberal Party now has its strong majority. Which federal party is going to gain from this result? I do understand that The Quebec Liberal Party is quite different from the federal Liberals. I remember in 2003 when Jean Charest, the next in line to be the leader of the federal PC Party was sent to Quebec to lead the Quebec Liberals to defeat separatist forces.

The federal NDP depend on Quebec to maintain their "opposition" status. The federal Conservatives need a breakthrough in Quebec to maintain power. The federal Liberals need Quebec if they hope to govern.

What is the federal message? Which federal party has gained from this decisive vote in Quebec?

[The_Squid]

It probably favours Trudeau and the Liberals. He is very popular in QC.

[overthere]

Why does the current govt need a breakthrough in Quebec to maintain a majority?

They have a majority now without many seats there.

And that is a startling fact that people in Quebec will have noticed: majority govt, no reliance on Quebec. Yikes.

But to answer your question....

Losers of seats:

Bloc Quebecois will come up with almost nothing again.

NDP will lose seats. Quebec knows they have been outside the orbit of influence in Ottawa for quite a while now and they will acknowledge that the NDP are not going to be in government with or without their support and seats.

Gains of seats: The Hair That Walks Like a Man will gain in Quebec because he's the best of bad choices from a Quebec perspective.

Tories may also gain a bunch because they have done OK by Quebec despite having minimal support, and Quebec has just made a pretty strong federalist stement at the polls. Will they make another next year?

[cybercoma]

Probably the Bloc Québecois.

[Keepitsimple]

Liberals can't help but gain some votes and seats.....but the wild card is how willing Couillart is to work with Ottawa. When Duceppe was wielding his rhetoric with the Bloc, he constantly railed against the Liberals as having a "Father knows Best" attitude - always intruding in areas of Provincial jurisdiction. Harper has done neither - he officially recognized Quebecers as a Nation (within a united Canada), has gone out of his way to respect Provincial juristictions of all provinces, speaks French first in most international settings, and kept out of the recent Provincial election. What he won't do - and hasn't done - is throw money at Quebec. So - will Couillart openly adopt a positive, Federalist stance - or will he be clammering for special "favours"....something he KNOWS the Liberals will be only too glad to supply - either above table, or under it.

[-TSS-]

As I checked the history of elections in Quebec

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Quebec_general_elections

it seems that the split in the nationalist vote in 2007 hasn't hurt the nationalist cause even though in that particular year it gave the Liberals a victory but the combined share of the seats won by the nationalists has been higher since the split.

[cybercoma]

Liberals can't help but gain some votes and seats.....but the wild card is how willing Couillart is to work with Ottawa. When Duceppe was wielding his rhetoric with the Bloc, he constantly railed against the Liberals as having a "Father knows Best" attitude - always intruding in areas of Provincial jurisdiction. Harper has done neither - he officially recognized Quebecers as a Nation (within a united Canada), has gone out of his way to respect Provincial juristictions of all provinces, speaks French first in most international settings, and kept out of the recent Provincial election. What he won't do - and hasn't done - is throw money at Quebec. So - will Couillart openly adopt a positive, Federalist stance - or will he be clammering for special "favours"....something he KNOWS the Liberals will be only too glad to supply - either above table, or under it.

I hate it when people say provinces are looking for "special favours". Canada is a federalist state. The provinces have a measure of autonomy that is rarely recognized these days. There's people that don't even realize the provincial Liberals and Conservatives are separate parties from their federal counterparts.

As an aside, that's one of the sticking points I have with the NDP. What if I want to support them provincially, but not federally? I can't. It's the same party, unlike the others.

Edited April 9, 2014 by cybercoma

[Big Guy]

I hate it when people say provinces are looking for "special favours". Canada is a federalist state. The provinces have a measure of autonomy that is rarely recognized these days. There's people that don't even realize the provincial Liberals and Conservatives are separate parties from their federal counterparts.

As an aside, that's one of the sticking points I have with the NDP. What if I want to support them provincially, but not federally? I can't. It's the same party, unlike the others.

Which existing political party in Quebec has policies that are the closest of those of the federal NDP?

[Keepitsimple]

I hate it when people say provinces are looking for "special favours". Canada is a federalist state. The provinces have a measure of autonomy that is rarely recognized these days. There's people that don't even realize the provincial Liberals and Conservatives are separate parties from their federal counterparts.

As an aside, that's one of the sticking points I have with the NDP. What if I want to support them provincially, but not federally? I can't. It's the same party, unlike the others.

Not provinces (plural).....Quebec. Perhaps when people start to realize the authority - and accountability - that Provinces have......they'll come to understand how important it was for Harper to have put an end to the constant squabbling over Healthcare funding. The Provinces have total responsibility for delivering healthcare services but they constantly muddied the waters by bashing the Feds about not giving them enough money. Now - the guidelines are clear - and the Provinces simply have to get on with improving the service they deliver. Poop or get off the pot.

[cybercoma]

Which existing political party in Quebec has policies that are the closest of those of the federal NDP?

The Quebec provincial NDP and the federal NDP are the same party.

[Big Guy]

The Quebec provincial NDP and the federal NDP are the same party.

Thanks for the information. I had never heard of a Quebec NDP. Found that; ":On January 30, 2014 the Director General of Quebec elections officially registered the New Democratic Party of Quebec as a provincial political party."

Also it appears that nobody has taken this party seriously now or in the past with the best result less than 3% support. The federal NDP won a large number of seats in the last election. Who did these people vote for in the provincial election? Which party represents the federal NDP views in Quebec?

[Annoyed1]

Why does the current govt need a breakthrough in Quebec to maintain a majority?

They have a majority now without many seats there.

And that is a startling fact that people in Quebec will have noticed: majority govt, no reliance on Quebec. Yikes.

In our current first past the post set up, one cannot gain a majority position in Parliament without winning either Quebec or Ontario. Given that Quebec basically reject the Harper neo-Cons in the last Federal election, he needs to win Ontario if he hopes to win a second majority or even another minority. However, Ontario looks to be turning away from the Harper Governement, which means he really does need to make a breakthrough in Quebec.

With the recent landslide election of the Liberal Party of Quebec and JT's rising popularity there, such a breakthrough seems highly unlikely. JT and the Liberals are making headway in Ontario at the expense of the Conservatives. At the same time, BC is not very happy with the Harper Cons either for a number of reason, so much so they stand to lose the few seats they have here, which is something they can ill afford.

Unless JT and the Liberal implode, which is possible or the NDP becomes seen as a viable middle of the road option compared to the two other main parties, the 2015 election looks bleak for Harper.

[August1991]

It probably favours Trudeau and the Liberals. He is very popular in QC.

By what logic?

Red in Quebec, blue in Ottawa is a more likely logic.

-----

IMHO, and for several reasons, Couillard's election favours Harper. For starters, many 905/Ontario voters are no longer fearful of the break-up of Canada. They can vote for someone who is not from Quebec.

[WWWTT]

Time to breathe some life into this thread with a good link!

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/gerry-caplan/2014/04/last-weeks-landslide-winners-quebec-election-federal-ndp

I thought that this was the case.

The obvious losers federally are the conservatives!

The conservatives made a political career on the backs of the Quebec politicians as an anti Quebec!

Now that their greatest rivals are gone, guess who's next to be exiting the stage? Yep, the conservatives!

WWWTT

[Michael Hardner]

Time to breathe some life into this thread with a good link!

http://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/gerry-caplan/2014/04/last-weeks-landslide-winners-quebec-election-federal-ndp

I thought that this was the case.

The obvious losers federally are the conservatives!

The three reasons given why this helps the NDP: their 50%+1 policy won't get attention, they will have less competition from the BQ, and Justin Trudeau won't get votes by being 'Captain Canada'.

I only see #2 as being valid. I doubt anybody in the RoC cares much about their 50%+1 policy, nor is it clear what Trudeau could have done if separatism had continued to threaten a referendum.

Harper was in power for this, and played it properly. But I don't even think it will benefit him, except perhaps as part of an overall perception that he is able to navigate the country through these types of challenges.

[WWWTT]

This is one of those threads all about opinion really.

I threw the link in here to show that there are different opinions out there.

This election reminds me of the 2011 federal in that a Quebec party took a huge hit and made a serious change. The liberals also took a huge hit in Quebec in 2011 because the voters there didn't run back to them, they went NDP!

Keep in mind that the liberals (federally) at one time were a "Quebec" party. (Brian Mulroney changed that)

I don't think the "left" in Quebec will be so quick to jump on with Justin. But we'll see next year.

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

The three reasons given why this helps the NDP: their 50%+1 policy won't get attention, they will have less competition from the BQ, and Justin Trudeau won't get votes by being 'Captain Canada'.

I wasn't kidding when I said this helped the BQ. Without the PQ at the helm in Québec it's unlikely that they will have a referendum because the Liberals won't support it. This means Québec voters can elect the BQ based on the rest of their platform without fearing secession, while still pressuring the rest of Canada with the threat. I honestly believe the Liberal win could the Bloc here.

[WWWTT]

I wasn't kidding when I said this helped the BQ. Without the PQ at the helm in Québec it's unlikely that they will have a referendum because the Liberals won't support it. This means Québec voters can elect the BQ based on the rest of their platform without fearing secession, while still pressuring the rest of Canada with the threat. I honestly believe the Liberal win could the Bloc here.

That doesn't make sense?

When Quebec voted NDP federally, they were saying a few things, we don't believe the bq can pass anything as a third party opposition, we're not separates and we are leftists!

This provincial election just reaffirms this.

When the next federal election comes, Quebec is going to watch Mulcair and Justin have a battle to the death in the French debates!

That's where the fight between the NDP and liberals is going to be, Quebec.

At this point in time, I'd be surprised if the conservatives and the bq hold on to ANY of there less than 10 seats there.

Bloq and conservatives need each other in their bizarre symbiotic/parasitic political relationship. I can see the bq coming back if Harper some how tries to resurrect them.

WWWTT

[August1991]

The three reasons given why this helps the NDP: their 50%+1 policy won't get attention, they will have less competition from the BQ, and Justin Trudeau won't get votes by being 'Captain Canada'.

Agreed In English Canada, Couillard's election makes it easy for leftist English Canadians to choose opinion/ideology over country and they can vote NDP without fear of separatism.

Harper wins because the English-Canadian leftish vote is divided.

Edited April 18, 2014 by August1991

[WWWTT]

Agreed In English Canada, Couillard's election makes it easy for leftist English Canadians to choose opinion/ideology over country and they can vote NDP without fear of separatism.

Harper wins because the English-Canadian leftish vote is divided.

And this is why the NDP is trying to paint Justin as "Harper light"!

It will be interesting to see the direction the attack adds take us. Or just all the adds from every party.

But I'm willing to bet there is going to be attack adds from all parties.

WWWTT

[overthere]

I wasn't kidding when I said this helped the BQ. Without the PQ at the helm in Québec it's unlikely that they will have a referendum because the Liberals won't support it. This means Québec voters can elect the BQ based on the rest of their platform without fearing secession, while still pressuring the rest of Canada with the threat. I honestly believe the Liberal win could the Bloc here.

Yeah, I don't see that at all.

The Bloc is pretty much a spent force now. Quebec rejected a separatist party in a large and unambiguous way in the election. They elected a party reviled for corruption not long ago.

What exactly do they gain by marginalizing themselves by voting Bloc federally?

I reckon Quebec voters are pragmatists, they want to be at the table again in Ottawa. They have been away for quite some time now.

Which brings us to the NDP seats....

I think a bunch of them are going to go the Liberals, some will stay NDP and some will go to the PCs. That may well mean with the vote splitting Harper wins again.

And unlikely they'll have a referendum with a Quebec Liberal govt.? That is a safe call.

[August1991]

I reckon Quebec voters are pragmatists, they want to be at the table again in Ottawa. They have been away for quite some time now....

Be at the table? If you think that Quebecers will vote for Harper or Trudeau Jnr, you are mistaken.

----

The next federal election (aside from the extra seats in the West) will play in Ontario - and with this Quebec result, Ontario immigrant voters now have nothing to fear about Quebec separation: they can vote conscience, rather than pocketbook.

[PIK]

Harper has shown he does not need quebec and quebec has a lot of catholics that might not like what trudeau has prposed about abortion. It seems trudeau is doing everything possible to lose the next election.

[August1991]

Harper has shown he does not need quebec and quebec has a lot of catholics that might not like what trudeau has prposed about abortion. It seems trudeau is doing everything possible to lose the next election.

Trudeau Jnr has chosen this "woman's right/abortion position" because Trudeau Jnr believes that politicians/artists can simply connect with ordinary people through honesty - after so much supposed dishonesty.

Trudeau Jnr is mistaken: in Canada, a politician is a matchmaker - not a spouse in a marrage.

Canadians don't want to have sex with our politicians - we want our politicians (Macdonald Laurier King Mulroney Harper) to arrange our blind dates.

Edited May 24, 2014 by August1991

[cybercoma]

Canadians don't want to have sex with our politicians

Speak for yourself.