Will Ukraine Be Partitioned?

[dre]

Agreed.

Russia suspects this may be the case, it's testing the US & the West, but this is why NATO has to be prepared for military action against Russia on this as a worst-case scenario or else it sets an extremely dangerous precedent where autocrats around the world will feel they can invade/annex any neighbouring territory without the US/NATO/the West doing anything about it . It also tells Russia that they can get away with doing the same thing in other territory.

The problem is it would be a bluff and Putin knows it.

If you ask me, I think we should talk to the Russians and try to find out what they plan to do. If they plan to leave after the situation is resolved like they did in Georgia, I dont think its worth raising much stink about it.

[jbg]

Or why they don't start a "BDS" or "boycott, disinvestment, sanctions" movement (link, excerpt from site below) against Russia the way they have against Israel.

If it has been ineffectual with holding Israel responsible, then it has even less of a chance of holding Russia responsible. Sanctions won't work on countries the size of Russia. You will need a large group of countries to come together to accomplish that. But as soon as that happens, Europe runs the risk of not having a source for gas and oil, which it seems that Russia is a major source of those two items.

I am making a play on the obvious double-standard. The world goes into high dudgeon about Israel; not so much about Russia.

[Moonlight Graham]

The problem is it would be a bluff and Putin knows it.

If you ask me, I think we should talk to the Russians and try to find out what they plan to do. If they plan to leave after the situation is resolved like they did in Georgia, I dont think its worth raising much stink about it.

The thing is Putin hasn't attempted to annex anything yet. Putin saw the violence and instability from the protest clashes in Ukraine and very likely moved troops into Crimea in order to protect what are essentially ethnic Russians, as well as Russian military and other interests that were already there. I was wrong to compare the situation to Kuwait...yet. You're right that Putin may plan to remove troops once the instability is gone, and then it's much ado about nothing. Obama is probably making the right move right now in threatening economic/diplomatic repercussions and not military force.

[Moonlight Graham]

I am making a play on the obvious double-standard. The world goes into high dudgeon about Israel; not so much about Russia.

The international community has been extremely easy on Israel, the west especially. Israel illegally occupies foreign territory with military force, continues to build illegal settlements, and has covertly developed nuclear weapons with no inspections or international accountability. Only the US has been on a longer leash since the end of the Cold War.

Do you not see the international freak-out on Russia the last couple of days?

Edited March 3, 2014 by Moonlight Graham

[dre]

The international community has been extremely easy on Israel, the west especially. Israel illegally occupies foreign territory with military force, continues to build illegal settlements, and has covertly developed nuclear weapons with no inspections or international accountability. Only the US has been on a longer leash since the end of the Cold War.

Do you not see the international freak-out on Russia the last couple of days?

I always laugh when people make this claim. You are right... The UN and international community at large has given Israel a complete pass.

[dre]

The thing is Putin hasn't attempted to annex anything yet. Putin saw the violence and instability from the protest clashes in Ukraine and very likely moved troops into Crimea in order to protect what are essentially ethnic Russians, as well as Russian military and other interests that were already there. I was wrong to compare the situation to Kuwait...yet. You're right that Putin may plan to remove troops once the instability is gone, and then it's much ado about nothing. Obama is probably making the right move right now in threatening economic/diplomatic repercussions and not military force.

Thats the way I see it too MG. Cant find anything you post to argue about

[-TSS-]

1) Is Ukraine important in the point of view of the USA?

2) Is the US economy in a good enough shape that it can risk another war?

3) Is Obama a chicken-shit?

[Topaz]

The news of out Britain, Sky news is saying that China is in agreement with Russia. Kerry is going over there to hopefully get some kind of peace deal and if he can't is WW3 in the near future, hope not. http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine

[dre]

1) Is Ukraine important in the point of view of the USA?

2) Is the US economy in a good enough shape that it can risk another war?

3) Is Obama a chicken-shit?

1. A bit. I dont think the US wants Russia rebuilding the USSR piece by piece.

2. The US economy will never be in good enough shape for it to fight a war against Russia in eastern Europe.

3. Irrelevant. Nobody on earth with more than 5 braincells would start a war with Russia in eastern Europe over a territory thats 75% Russian anyways.

[TimG]

3. Irrelevant. Nobody on earth with more than 5 braincells would start a war with Russia in eastern Europe over a territory thats 75% Russian anyways.

It makes no sense. In this case, I would say the Russians have a legitimate claim over Crimea given the large Russian population and historical facts. I would rather see a referendum than an invasion though.

[dre]

It makes no sense. In this case, I would say the Russians have a legitimate claim over Crimea given the large Russian population and historical facts. I would rather see a referendum than an invasion though.

Yeah I agree. Hopefully the people of Crimea will be allowed to decide whether they stay part of Ukraine, or join Russia.

[Moonlight Graham]

It makes no sense. In this case, I would say the Russians have a legitimate claim over Crimea given the large Russian population and historical facts. I would rather see a referendum than an invasion though.

I'd say Russia has legitimate interests in wanting Crimea to become a part of Russia and has a good argument on why it should be, but it has no "legitimate claim" whatsoever on the territory. It's 100% sovereign territory, and a part of the Ukraine. It's never, ever legitimate to claim territory through military invasion, threat of force or intimidation, and/or annexation. That's written right into the UN Charter which Moscow helped create in order to prevent situations like this that led to WWI/WWII. From the UN Charter, Article 2.4:

4. All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

The only legitimate way Crimea can join Russia is if its people/government willfully decides it wants to join Russia, free of threats or intimidation to do so. Russia would have to remove all troops IMO in order to remove any threatening/intimidation and Crimea would likely need to have a referendum. That said, Russia hasn't made it clear whatsoever that it intends to annex Crimea. Still, Russia invading Crimea unilaterally is against basic international law, whether ethnic Russians live there or not. It's an act of war against the Ukraine.

Edited March 4, 2014 by Moonlight Graham

[TimG]

Still, Russia invading Crimea unilaterally is against basic international law, whether ethnic Russians live there or not. It's an act of war against the Ukraine.

Yes it is. I think that this could have been avoided if western powers had started pushing for the right of the people of Crimea to decide instead of useless grandstanding which Russia was going to ignore. If the push came early enough then it would have been a face saving exercise for both sides. The international order would be up held and Russia gets Crimea. Now that Russian troops are in Crimea the only endgame is humiliation for those claiming that the international order means something.

[August1991]

Topaz with due respect words mean nothing. The only thing Putin understands is brutal force. He picks his battles against only those he knows he can defeat. He's no different than Hitler in Poland and Czechoslovakia or Mussolini in Ethiopia....

I beg to differ. Comparing Mussolini taking Ethiopia with Putin taking Crimea is nonsensical. As to Hitler, your comparison might make sense if you referred to the Sudetenland or East Prussia.

Crimea was Russian until Krushchev (in his wisdom) gave it to Ukraine in the 1950s. (I thought that Khrushchev did this in 1960 but I may be wrong about the date.) IOW, Crimea is part of Ukraine by Soviet ukaz.

====

IMHO, these events are after-tremors following the earthquake caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union. (Next after-tremor? I would not be surprised to see Putin take over Belarus once that idiot Lukashenko dies or is deposed.)

IMV, it is a legitimate question to ask where to draw the line in Ukraine: where does "Russian eastern Ukraine" end and where does "western Ukraine" start? If I were a NATO MFA, I'd be on the phone to my counterparts (and people in Kiev, as well as Moscow) to draw this line well - and bring the new western Ukraine quickly into NATO and the EU.

If done right, this can all be done without violence or injury.

====

Putin and Hitler? After Poland, Hitler invaded France, then the Balkans and then Russia. He also tried to eliminate a race/religion from the face of the earth. While I feel uncomfortable defending Putin, I think that it's a fair bet that Putin has no intention to invade France.

Edited March 4, 2014 by August1991

[jbg]

The international community has been extremely easy on Israel, the west especially. Israel illegally occupies foreign territory with military force, continues to build illegal settlements, and has covertly developed nuclear weapons with no inspections or international accountability. Only the US has been on a longer leash since the end of the Cold War.

Why in the West do we insist on eating our own, rather than our enemies?

Do you not see the international freak-out on Russia the last couple of days?

I don't see anything but cries of anguish and hand-wringing. Edited March 4, 2014 by jbg

[On Guard for Thee]

All the reportage I have seen seems to show there is no threat to Russian speaking people in Ukraine. Which is the guise that Putin seems to be using to justify his invasion. Angela Merkel seemed to indicate that after a phone conversation with Putin that she thought he was out of touch with reality. Whatever that meant I don't know but it sounds scary to me. Is he really trying to rebuild the former USSR?

[Bonam]

Putin and Hitler? After Poland, Hitler invaded France, then the Balkans and then Russia. He also tried to eliminate a race/religion from the face of the earth. While I feel uncomfortable defending Putin, I think that it's a fair bet that Putin has no intention to invade France.

Nor is he likely to start trying to eliminate any races. Putin's Russia is just a typical garden variety country seeking to broaden its influence through economic, diplomatic, and military means, as have almost all nations throughout history. Certainly overt aggression should be opposed, but to compare Putin to someone responsible for the worst atrocities in human history is unwarranted. In fact, the Nazis, fascists, and Hitler accusations are trotted out so often that they begin to lose meaning, and people might fail to grasp their significance when someone truly Hitler-like comes along on the world stage.

[Bonam]

Is he really trying to rebuild the former USSR?

He's just trying to scoop up the easy pickings.

[On Guard for Thee]

"Easy" would be the last word I would expect that scenario play out.

[Bonam]

"Easy" would be the last word I would expect that scenario play out.

Just watch and see.

[dre]

He's just trying to scoop up the easy pickings.

Possibly... But not necessarily.

Its entirely possible that Russia is just trying to protect Russians during uncertain times. They might just leave after like they did in Georgia. Everyone was claiming Russia was going to annex a bunch of territory there as well.

[On Guard for Thee]

Possibly... But not necessarily.

Its entirely possible that Russia is just trying to protect Russians during uncertain times. They might just leave after like they did in Georgia. Everyone was claiming Russia was going to annex a bunch of territory there as well.

If Russians wanted to leave why didn't they do so during the precious 20 years ago after Russia signed the treaty giving the Ukraine autonomy? All the current reportage seems to show there is nothing "uncertain" other than they finally revolted and kicked out a president who had a lot of blood on his hands, and who hapenns to be Russian.

[Moonlight Graham]

Why in the West do we insist on eating our own, rather than our enemies?

Israel ignores international law and UN resolutions at whim, so they're an enemy of peace. International law needs to be followed by everyone for it to work. The rule of law, nobody is above it. States like Iran and N.Korea are considered rogue states, but the US and Israel are rogue states as well. The US and Israel often ignore international law as it suits them, and it undermines international security and human rights.

Poor Israel, treated soooo poorly by the world, always a victim.

[Argus]

This is just a bunch of idiotic noise.

No it's absolute reality. Lefties always make excuses for dictatorships.

This same ritual is enacted whenever and wherever a hostile dictatorship embarks upon some lawless escapade. The anti-West left either looks the other way or jumps to its defence.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2014/03/03/andrew-coyne-russia-enabled-by-wests-foreign-policies-of-vacillation-uncertainty/

Edited March 4, 2014 by Argus

[Argus]

More noise... I never said anything about life in Russia being good, or people wanting to move there. Youre appear to be just ranting about random stuff that has nothing to do with the conversation.

Harper, Obama, Brown, Kerry et all, are the geopolitical equivalents of a drunk at the holdem poker table trying to bluff after theyve already shown everyone their cards.

They arent gonna do squat and Russia knows it. And after a couple of weeks you will realize that too.

Actually, I said that in my first post. I know the leadership in the west is spineless. Just as I know the usual suspects will do their best to make excuses for Russia's attacks out of sympathy for them. It's simple. Whoever the west is angry at, and for whatever reason, people like you will flock to their defense and start making excuses and accusations.