2015 Federal Election Prediction

[cybercoma]

If the Conservatives don't stop the bleeding in Atlantic Canada, they'll lose the next election. They've ignored this region for the last 8 years and their support here shows it. I expect the empty promises to flow soon.

Edited December 31, 2013 by cybercoma

[PIK]

If the Conservatives don't stop the bleeding in Atlantic Canada, they'll lose the next election. They've ignored this region for the last 8 years and their support here shows it. I expect the empty promises to flow soon.

If they can start building ships should help. And it depends on what the libs and dippers say about the ship building contracts, are they going to keep them or cancell the whole project.

[ironstone]

He will do lots. What do you know about Trudeau? Do you follow Canadian politics closely or what?

I'm not aware of Trudeau saying anything substancial yet about his policies,except that he is pro-pot.

You say he will do lot's?Like what?

More pot.A carbon tax.What else?He doesn't seem to be surrounding himself with the best advisors either.

http://ezralevant.com/2013/09/justin-trudeau-my-fair-liberal.html

[carepov]

I'm not aware of Trudeau saying anything substancial yet about his policies,except that he is pro-pot.

You say he will do lot's?Like what?

More pot.A carbon tax.What else?He doesn't seem to be surrounding himself with the best advisors either.

http://ezralevant.com/2013/09/justin-trudeau-my-fair-liberal.html

Here some policies supported by Trudeau:

"He supports free trade, foreign direct investment and carbon pricing, all pointing to a curious conclusion: the shaggy-haired, former whitewater guide has an agenda just as capitalist-friendly as the Conservatives. If that notion is odd, this one is heretical: Justin Trudeau might be better for business than Stephen Harper."

"Trudeau backs the Keystone pipeline as “an extremely important initiative…in terms of getting our raw resources to market,”"

"Trudeau says he’s fine with Canada’s supplymanagement regime"

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/justin-trudeau-friend-or-foe/

"Trudeau continued to push for a smaller, and smarter, government. Though the Liberals rallied against "jets and jails" in 2011, Trudeau supports the procurement of fighter jets, believing it's a necessary asset for a strong modern military. He also used the opportunity to establish himself as a staunch federalist, turning the table on Conservatives for associating with soft Quebec nationalists -- albeit three decades ago. Moreover, he attacked the government's Economic Action Plan by saying the economy doesn't need government stimulation. A Prime Minister Trudeau would also fight for minimum government involvement in the economy and support rigorous free trade, according to the interview. These are all things a young Stephen Harper would advocate."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/tom-kott/is-justin-trudeau-a-conservative_b_3150871.html

Trudeau is not committing to many policies at this time. IMO this is very wise in Canadian politics - in general the fewer concrete policies that you propose, the greater the chance of electoral success - as demonstrated by Harper and Layton in 2011.

Edited December 31, 2013 by carepov

[The_Squid]

Trudeau will wait until an election campaign to roll out government policies, not 2 years out. To think that he is going to make grand policy proclamations now is absurd. Why would he??

[The_Squid]

Looks like decent Green support in BC. Elizabeth May has really represented herself and the party well in the House, despite being one member (now two).

[ironstone]

Here some policies supported by Trudeau:

"He supports free trade, foreign direct investment and carbon pricing, all pointing to a curious conclusion: the shaggy-haired, former whitewater guide has an agenda just as capitalist-friendly as the Conservatives. If that notion is odd, this one is heretical: Justin Trudeau might be better for business than Stephen Harper."

"Trudeau backs the Keystone pipeline as “an extremely important initiative…in terms of getting our raw resources to market,”"

"Trudeau says he’s fine with Canada’s supplymanagement regime"

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/justin-trudeau-friend-or-foe/

"Trudeau continued to push for a smaller, and smarter, government. Though the Liberals rallied against "jets and jails" in 2011, Trudeau supports the procurement of fighter jets, believing it's a necessary asset for a strong modern military. He also used the opportunity to establish himself as a staunch federalist, turning the table on Conservatives for associating with soft Quebec nationalists -- albeit three decades ago. Moreover, he attacked the government's Economic Action Plan by saying the economy doesn't need government stimulation. A Prime Minister Trudeau would also fight for minimum government involvement in the economy and support rigorous free trade, according to the interview. These are all things a young Stephen Harper would advocate."

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/tom-kott/is-justin-trudeau-a-conservative_b_3150871.html

Trudeau is not committing to many policies at this time. IMO this is very wise in Canadian politics - in general the fewer concrete policies that you propose, the greater the chance of electoral success - as demonstrated by Harper and Layton in 2011.

Interesting,Trudeau supports many of the same things Harper does?Surprisingly he does support Keystone XL,but NOT the Northern Gateway pipeline.He came out against that pipeline even before the experts reviewed it and came out in support of it recently.

I wouldn't call Trudeau a staunch federalist either based on past comments.The current Senate is to "our" advantage as he said.He believes the best leaders are from Quebec and he did infer that Quebec should consider leaving if it doesn't like the way Canada is run.Justin Trudeau is a Quebecer first before he is Canadian.

The government is not yet small enough and smart enough under Harper and we most certainly wouldn't have it under Trudeau either.

I don't think he has his father's intellect and his current team is like the one McGuinty listened to while he was leading Ontario down the toilet(see Gerald Butts-green energy act stupidity etc.)

[Guest Derek L]

I'm sticking with a (slightly) larger Tory majority based on economic news/tax breaks targeted at middle income Canadians, the new seats and vote splitting.......As to the by-elections, as often mentioned, said elections are often used as a tool by the public to “send a message” and protest the sitting Government……As evident by the most recent ones, the Tories will have to learn to update their nomination procedures so as to prevent a disgruntled son of a former Tory MP running as a Liberal……Other then that, status quo…….

And I'll stick with this prediction:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-will-benefit-big-from-2015s-new-electoral-map-elections-canada-data-shows/article16630731/#dashboard/follows/

If everyone who voted in the 2011 election cast their ballots for the same political parties in 2015, the Conservatives would pick up 22 of the 30 seats that are being added in a riding redistribution, Elections Canada calculations show.

Those calculations indicate that, no matter how the parties are doing in the polls, Prime Minister Stephen Harper may be starting the next campaign with an electoral advantage. The Official Opposition NDP would pick up six ridings and the Liberals two.

As I’ve said before many of times, I don’t put much stock in polls etc, especially this far from the next election, but I feel the numbers game still sides with the Tories……..My worst case, jaundiced blue bias, previous would see a largish Tory minority, but with this data, coupled with Trudeau’s Senate window dressing, has now been upgraded to a Tory Majority with more overall seats, but a slighter plurality, majority margin.

What I think the real race will be is made evident by this passage:

Mr. Cullen said the NDP were already preparing for the next election. “We’re bringing in the best from across Canada and the United States, borrowing from some of [President Barack] Obama’s team,” he said, later adding: “They’ve been with us for a while now and we're picking up and using a lot of their best tactics.”

Every time Trudeau opens his gab, I think the NDP’s road to hoe is lessening……

[waldo]

it appears the recent flurry of CPC attack truth ads haven't had the desired intent... need more truth!!!

the latest 308 aggregation and the recent representative EKOS poll within that overall aggregate:

[WWWTT]

Trudeau hasn't done anything yet, and he sure isn't going to be anything like Obama "in the USA", as President Obama continued most of President Bush's domestic and foreign policies. Real change !!

Obama even out "drone striked" Bush!

Nobody beats the drone strike King!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

I hope you are still here in 2015 when the Liberals win. I have no doubt Trudeau wins.

Your off to a great prediction careers there socialist!

LOL!!!!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

It's way too soon to start making predictions about the election. However, I do predict that there are a lot of nervous Conservative hangers on looking at other career options.

Fairly safe prediction.

Lots of conservatives jumping ship for the "private sector"

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

Prediction: Conservative weak minority with NDP official opposition. Trudeau will about double Liberal seats at Tories expense. Expect the resulting circus to last less than a year.

Got to agree here with this one!

Possibly a weaker conservative minority than some may think, or even opposition?

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

All that matters is votes. A vote for the Liberals is a vote for Trudeau. Trudeau can relate to the middle class and that is resonating with middle class Canadians.

The senate scandal will still plague the CPC come 2015. Voters are tired of scandal after scandal and won't let this serious scandal slide.

Just like the wicked witch of the west flying evil monkeys, the conservative attack adds are coming!

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

I think you give the young Mr. Trudeau a bit too much credit. A rookie at bat is what comes to mind, not the calculated patience of a veteran. It may be that his handlers are telling him to keep his mouth shut until they can figure out the dilemma of how to inject some substance into the content without him stepping in it.

Are those the same "handlers" that helped Ignatief?

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

it appears the recent flurry of CPC attack truth ads haven't had the desired intent... need more truth!!!

Don't worry. They'll have their "truth" ads when Harper calls for the election after balancing the budget and having a surplus in the spring. People will forget all about the programs that were cut and the temporary foreign workers that are taking our jobs and the criminals he appointed to the Senate and the legislation that he wrote to make it easier to cheat elections and the phone calls that were made in 2011 to mislead voters to the wrong polls and $15 orange juices and the gutting of waterway regulations and the billions of dollars in jets that we still don't have and the advertising for a work-training program that never existed and the gerrymandering of electoral districts and all the legislation shot down but he supreme court and now the senate. People don't care. They gave him a majority when the Conservatives were found in contempt of Parliament. We will have another Conservative government unless something drastic happens.

[WWWTT]

45% left wing in Alberta? That alone tells me this poll is skewed. Of course no one in Alberta believes polls anyway after the last provincial election.

You're making a big assumption that the liberals are a left wing party!

I wouldn't. And neither do the conservatives.

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[WWWTT]

One journalist thinks that Harper could call for a surprise spring election and not wait for 2015. Harper has called back Dimitri Soudas, to be exe. director of the party. IF, the Harper did call an election election in 2014, could it be he is worried of the out come from the senate scandal and what will come out if a court hearing is called for?? http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/12/07/dimitri-soudas-and-stephen-harpers-future/

You got to love visiting these older threads about predictions!

LOL!!!

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[WWWTT]

Harper's going to call an early election to kill Michael Chong's reform bill.

That bill can be killed in a number of ways.

NDP may end up doing it for Harper!

WWWTT

[Accountability Now]

You're making a big assumption that the liberals are a left wing party!

I wouldn't. And neither do the conservatives.

WWWTT

And what do you think they are? Perfectly on the centre?

[waldo]

You got to love visiting these older threads about predictions!

I brought the thread forward/current to reflect the most recent polls... you're simply regurgitating 4+ month posts and adding cutesy one-liners to, count em, almost a dozen past posts. Oh wait... you just got a bite!

[bleeding heart]

No one can even declare what this magical "centre" is (meaning that the oft-declared "most Canadians are centrists" theme is close to meaningless).

[WWWTT]

And what do you think they are? Perfectly on the centre?

Got to go by policy by policy.

WWWTT

[Accountability Now]

Got to go by policy by policy.

WWWTT

But in general we have this....

[WWWTT]

I brought the thread forward/current to reflect the most recent polls... you're simply regurgitating 4+ month posts and adding cutesy one-liners to, count em, almost a dozen past posts. Oh wait... you just got a bite!

Ya, so what?

WWWTT