2012 US Presidential race polls

[punked]

For someone that JUST mentioned before this post the historical accuracy of polls, you think you would have the intellectual honesty to point out that ABC/Post was near the bottom of the pack in 2008. But no. You only criticize methodology and polling accuracy when your guy is losing.

The ABC poll has Obama winning which is why Shady didn't post the poll.

[cybercoma]

The ABC poll has Obama winning which is why Shady didn't post the poll.

Their polling is still less accurate than others, regardless of who's winning.

In any event, gambling sites and FiveThirtyEight seem to have the most accurate predictions. They've got Obama leading this thing nearly 3:1.

Since Shady's so confident, maybe he should put his money where his mouth is, place some money on this thing and potentially earn 3x the return.

[punked]

Their polling is still less accurate than others, regardless of who's winning.

In any event, gambling sites and FiveThirtyEight seem to have the most accurate predictions. They've got Obama leading this thing nearly 3:1.

Since Shady's so confident, maybe he should put his money where his mouth is, place some money on this thing and potentially earn 3x the return.

He doesn't believe the things he says.

[Guest American Woman]

Whether he believes it or not, in the end it will be what the voters decide. The polls don't determine the winner. That's what the election is for. I really don't understand this preoccupation with polls.

[punked]

Whether he believes it or not, in the end it will be what the voters decide. The polls don't determine the winner. That's what the election is for. I really don't understand this preoccupation with polls.

For someone who understands them and methodology like myself it is fun to see Stats at work. It makes sad everytime Shady posts about a poll because he clearly doesn't understand or want to understand the science behind them.

[Guest American Woman]

For someone who understands them and methodology like myself it is fun to see Stats at work. It makes sad everytime Shady posts about a poll because he clearly doesn't understand or want to understand the science behind them.

I can see where that would be interesting for you, but to see them as an end result is what I don't understand.

[cybercoma]

I can see where that would be interesting for you, but to see them as an end result is what I don't understand.

I'm not sure anyone sees them as an end result.

[punked]

Newest NC poll has Obama ahead almost 30% of All AAs in the state have already voted. Good thing Romney pulled out.

[GostHacked]

Whether he believes it or not, in the end it will be what the voters decide. The polls don't determine the winner. That's what the election is for. I really don't understand this preoccupation with polls.

Apparently the voters don't decide the winner either. See Bush 2008.

[cybercoma]

Apparently the voters don't decide the winner either. See Bush 2008.

McCain v Obama in 2008.

You mean 2000 when Gore won the popular vote?

[Guest American Woman]

Apparently the voters don't decide the winner either. See Bush 2008.

Care to elaborate?

[Fletch 27]

I hate to say it but Romney will win this election. The US experimented with a socialist party due to the corporate "hate-on" the 2008 collapse.

Back then the republicans played the smartes end-game ever seen in politics. Does anyone really think that the McCain/Palin team was an accident or a bad choice in running mates? The Republicans did NOT want to win that last election and put the 2 worste possible bodies in the firing line. Obama was pretty hancuffed in the past years and of coarse the economy would not rebound as fast as Americans had "Hoped".

The US economy is still in the crapper and Romney will highlight that at every opportunity. Obama made a number of bad choices and his timing couldnt have been worse.. Hes outta there

Romney WILL however turn the economy around.. Fund the US war machine and cut spending...

[GostHacked]

McCain v Obama in 2008.

You mean 2000 when Gore won the popular vote?

Damn, posted the wrong year. That would have been 2004 where the courts decided the winner because of Florida.

[punked]

Damn, posted the wrong year. That would have been 2004 where the courts decided the winner because of Florida.

No 2000 was the year Florida courts stopped the recount. 2004 is the year when Ohio's terrible early voting and electronic voting machines may have thrown the race.

[BubberMiley]

I hate to say it but Romney will win this election.

You hate to say it?

[punked]

Before Shady floods with Ras polls I just wanted to post their state record.

* OHIO - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: TIE; Actual 2008 result: Obama +4.6%

* FLORIDA - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: McCain +1%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +2.8%

* COLORADO - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: Obama +4%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +9.0%

* NEVADA - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: Obama +4%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +12.5%

[Sleipnir]

With Hurricane Sandy coming to smash the east coast of the U.S, I am not sure how that would affect the national polls in the upcoming days (power outage, ignoring poll calls due to emergency, etc).

[Guest American Woman]

With Hurricane Sandy coming to smash the east coast of the U.S, I am not sure how that would affect the national polls in the upcoming days (power outage, ignoring poll calls due to emergency, etc).

I'm not sure how it's going to affect the election - some projections of the storm damage say power outages are possible as late as next Tuesday.

[Sleipnir]

I'm not sure how it's going to affect the election - some projections of the storm damage say power outages are possible as late as next Tuesday.

Man that would cause so much headache for the Federal Election Commission. I just realized, off topic, that the Ontario legislature is prorogue, how would that affect the efficiency of the provincial government to response to potential disasters? I don't know if it would be worth making a thread about it :/

Edited October 29, 2012 by Sleipnir

[Smallc]

It doesn't affect that at all.

[Shady]

Damn, posted the wrong year. That would have been 2004 where the courts decided the winner because of Florida.

Why don't you stop posting in this section since you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

[dre]

Why don't you stop posting in this section since you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

That logic would prevent you from posting in ANY section...

[bush_cheney2004]

With Hurricane Sandy coming to smash the east coast of the U.S, I am not sure how that would affect the national polls in the upcoming days (power outage, ignoring poll calls due to emergency, etc).

Most people ignore poll calls even in the best of weather. They are a nuisance.

[Smallc]

That logic would prevent you from posting in ANY section...

Awesome

[Shady]

Before Shady floods with Ras polls I just wanted to post their state record.

* OHIO - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: TIE; Actual 2008 result: Obama +4.6%

* FLORIDA - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: McCain +1%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +2.8%

* COLORADO - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: Obama +4%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +9.0%

* NEVADA - Rasmussen's final 2008 poll: Obama +4%; Actual 2008 result: Obama +12.5%

You're a lying liar. Rasmussen had Obama up 5 in their last Ohio poll, tied in their last Florida poll, Obama up 5 in their last Colorado poll, and Obama up 6 in their last Nevada poll. Stop the lying already.