Quebec marginalized

[Moonbox]

What is the point? From what I gather the point is that if people dont vote for the party that wins the election then those people are irrelevant.

It's a federation Peter. If Quebecquers are demanding policy and spending that are so far out of line with what the rest of Canada wants, and choose the protest vote instead of adjusting expectations, they polarize TROC and make it easy for the other side to win. We have the west and Quebec fairly opposed to one another in terms of idealogy, with Ontario being the deciding factor now. Ontario is far more open to the west's moderate conservatism than to Quebec's demands to be coddled, so look what happened.

I think that point is absolute bunk. Quebecers went over to the NDP - not the conservatives - and were shut out of government and are somehow not irrelevant.

Someones going to have to explain why voting for the protest parties is irrelevant and voting for the mainstream is relevant

The Conservatives owe their majority to the spectre of the NDP and the collapse of the Liberals. If Quebec wants to continue voting for parties that TROC simply can't stomach, they'll remain irrelevant. The fact that the NDP did so well there is promising, but we'll have to see what happens to the NDP now. Is it going to go mainstream or is it going to push itself further out of touch with the average Canadian? Mainstream is very important here. We're not talking about artistic integrity or anything stupid like that. We're talking about votes. If you're not mainstream you're pretty much nothing.

The Tories managed 40% of the popular vote and found support across the entire country except for Quebec. They were able to provide a moderate brand of conservatism that was conservative enough for the west, and liberal enough for Ontario and the East to stomach. The NDP is going to have to strike this balance as well moving forward if they're going ot have any chance. Coddling enough for Quebec, but not so much that it scares Anglo-Canada away. It's up to Quebecquers to make that work.

[August1991]

Call it what you want. The point remains.

What is the point of the thre4ad, other than another, unoriginal Quebec-bashing?

The implosion of the Liberals will help the Conservatives in Ontario more than anyone, especially if Quebec's running the NDP. Barring some giant scandal or the NDP becoming far more moderate, Harper's going to be around for a while.

Look at the numbers, in particular Harper's negatives.

The inchoate implosion of the federal Liberals has already made Harper's re-election difficult. Why? Not on ideological grounds (ie. not because Harper is perceived as being too right wing). It's because Harper can't form a viable federal government of regional interests. Without Quebec support, Harper is perceived by many voters in Ontario and the Maritimes as not a legitimate regional broker. He's Albertan, specifically from Calgary. (Trudeau - for example - was always very, very careful to present himself as a federal PM for all Canadians. Even in Quebec, Trudeau approached non-Montreal in a special way.)

----

Based purely on number of seats, it may be possible for a federal PM to form a government with MPs solely in Ontario (outside Toronto), Alberta, Sask, Man and rural BC. But such a regional coalition is not possible because too many Ontario voters (outside Toronto) would never vote for it.

If Harper faces the NDP/Mulcair without a Liberal diversion, he will be reduced to the regional (Prairie) Reform rump.

Heck, look what happened in the past Alberta provincial election.

Edited June 29, 2012 by August1991

[Moonbox]

Based purely on number of seats, it may be possible for a federal PM to form a government with MPs solely in Ontario (outside Toronto), Alberta, Sask, Man and rural BC. But such a regional coalition is not possible because too many Ontario voters (outside Toronto) would never vote for it.

What are you even trying to say? Most of Ontario outside of Toronto is blue, what little red there is had blue runner-ups, and the Tories did well in the GTA too.

If Harper faces the NDP/Mulcair without a Liberal diversion, he will be reduced to the regional (Prairie) Reform rump.

Heck, look what happened in the past Alberta provincial election.

August I think your perception of how votes get decided outside of Quebec is pretty clueless. Harper had 44% support in Ontario last election. The NDP and Liberals combined had 50%. For the NDP to succeed in Ontario they'd need virtually ALL of the Liberal bleed to go NDP, which you'd be a fool to suggest is likely. Harper would need around 15-20% of former Liberals to vote CPC instead of NDP, and that would seal the deal. Ever heard of the red Tories? You think they'd go NDP? Ontario does NOT like the NDP.

[bleeding heart]

What is the point of the thre4ad, other than another, unoriginal Quebec-bashing?

"Quebec-bashing" is not the point. Moonbox has some issues with Quebec, sure...frankly, that's a fairly mainstream position. If anything, he's stated, if not optimism, at least an openness to an optimistic position, albeit tentatively, about the NDP and Quebec. Not the most partisan take I've ever seen, to be sure.

And not overly "regional," either, unless TROC is a "region."

Without Quebec support, Harper is perceived by many voters in Ontario and the Maritimes as not a legitimate regional broker. He's Albertan, specifically from Calgary.

If anything, this appears to be less of an issue as time passes. I'm personally not a Harper fan--to put it mildly--but I don't think that, here in the Maritimes, he's viewed through such a starkly regional lens. As far as Maritimers dislike him (for those that do), I really think Alberta has exactly zero to do with it.

[August1991]

August I think your perception of how votes get decided outside of Quebec is pretty clueless. Harper had 44% support in Ontario last election. The NDP and Liberals combined had 50%.

And in the last election, Harper was perceived in Ontario (and elsewhere in English Canada) as a federal leader with broad-based support across the country.

That is no longer the case. Harper has bungled his support in Quebec.

For the NDP to succeed in Ontario they'd need virtually ALL of the Liberal bleed to go NDP, which you'd be a fool to suggest is likely. Harper would need around 15-20% of former Liberals to vote CPC instead of NDP, and that would seal the deal. Ever heard of the red Tories? You think they'd go NDP? Ontario does NOT like the NDP.

This is the key question, Moonbox. And I think that you are mistaken to view the question in ideological terms.

When push comes to shove, who would (swing) southern Ontario voters choose: a Harper from Calgary with support in the rural Prairies or a Mulcair with support in Quebec and urban English Canada? Which politician will apparently broker Canadian interests best?

[TimG]

That is no longer the case. Harper has bungled his support in Quebec.

You make it sounds like getting support from Quebec was an option on the the table. It was not. Quebequers are simply too wedded to their big government agenda.

Which politician will apparently broker Canadian interests best?

Obviously Harper is going to better represent in the Canadian interests since he is the only among the two that understands that their needs to be a robust private economy that can generate the tax revenue to pay for government services that the urban latte swillers demand. Edited June 29, 2012 by TimG

[Moonbox]

And in the last election, Harper was perceived in Ontario (and elsewhere in English Canada) as a federal leader with broad-based support across the country.

That is no longer the case. Harper has bungled his support in Quebec.

This is typical Quebec thinking though. "He doesn't have support in Quebec, so therefore he doesn't have broad support."

Wrong. He leads virtually everywhere outside of Quebec and enjoys far broader and less regional support than ANY other party.

When push comes to shove, who would (swing) southern Ontario voters choose: a Harper from Calgary with support in the rural Prairies or a Mulcair with support in Quebec and urban English Canada? Which politician will apparently broker Canadian interests best?

Almost guaranteed it would be Harper and the Tories, and I'll base it on very real and very recognizable idealogical differences, despite what you think. Look at Ontario's history of provincial elections and how weak NDP support typically is. Even with a total wet-noodle leader like Tim Hudak, the Tories still managed 35% support to the Liberal's 38% and the NDP's (ouch) 23%. That was WITH the Jack Layton bump too!

Most of Ontario has far more in common with light Harper-esque Conservatism than it does with Quebec's desire for social spending and coddling. Look where support stands in Ontario for the NDP - Windsor, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Northern Ontario and the dump areas of Toronto (ie places that need coddling).

Edited June 29, 2012 by Moonbox

[Jack Weber]

Most of Ontario has far more in common with light Harper-esque Conservatism than it does with Quebec's desire for social spending and coddling. Look where support stands in Ontario for the NDP - Windsor, Niagara Falls, Hamilton, Northern Ontario and the dump areas of Toronto (ie places that need coddling).

Coddling???

You mean areas of Ontario that have been hit hardest by neoliberal economic theories...The theories that are championed by conservatives and the PC party in Ontario...

[Wild Bill]

And in the last election, Harper was perceived in Ontario (and elsewhere in English Canada) as a federal leader with broad-based support across the country.

That is no longer the case. Harper has bungled his support in Quebec.

This is the key question, Moonbox. And I think that you are mistaken to view the question in ideological terms.

When push comes to shove, who would (swing) southern Ontario voters choose: a Harper from Calgary with support in the rural Prairies or a Mulcair with support in Quebec and urban English Canada? Which politician will apparently broker Canadian interests best?

August, you keep saying that somehow Harper not having support in Quebec will negatively influence Ontario voters. What do you base this on?

Myself, I've lived here all my life. I don't know ANYBODY who gives a damn what Quebec thinks about Harper or much of anything else, for that matter!

I truly don't understand where you got that impression. I understand WHY you keep saying it! As a Quebecois yourself it's a hard thing to accept that your province may no longer be as relevant on the Ottawa stage as before. Still, that doesn't mean you can pass off unsubstantiated opinion as fact!

Especially to those of us who live here! How would you respect the opinions of those of us in TROC as to how Quebecers think about how Ottawa treats Saskatchewan?

Oh sorry! I forgot! Quebecers would never even think about Saskatchewan!

[capricorn]

As a Quebecois yourself it's a hard thing to accept that your province may no longer be as relevant on the Ottawa stage as before.

This, coupled with the impact of Le Bon Jack's charisma on many Quebecers, goes a long way to explain the NDP's electoral success in Quebec.

[Peter F]

Seriously? That's what you took out of this? Reread the thread. What I was pointing out was that Quebec MADE itself irrelvant to the current government, not that it's irrelevant by default.

Yeah I understand. Quebec didn't support the conservatives therefore they are irrelevant to the current government. I get that.

but you dont seem to understand that that particular circumstance is completely normal for anyone anywhere. BC voters are subject to irrelevancy also as are every other voter in the country. You are suggesting that 'relevancy' is bestowed upon voters that choose correctly.

Should the enough voters vote NDP in the next election and the NDP form a government - would Quebec then through thier own fault be relevant or irrelevant? Would Alberta and Saskatchewan then be irrelevant? would such irrelevancy be the fault of Alberta and Saskatchewan? Would Conservative supporters be irrelevant? or any other supporters of any other party?

[Signals.Cpl]

Yeah I understand. Quebec didn't support the conservatives therefore they are irrelevant to the current government. I get that.

but you dont seem to understand that that particular circumstance is completely normal for anyone anywhere. BC voters are subject to irrelevancy also as are every other voter in the country. You are suggesting that 'relevancy' is bestowed upon voters that choose correctly.

Should the enough voters vote NDP in the next election and the NDP form a government - would Quebec then through thier own fault be relevant or irrelevant? Would Alberta and Saskatchewan then be irrelevant? would such irrelevancy be the fault of Alberta and Saskatchewan? Would Conservative supporters be irrelevant? or any other supporters of any other party?

Quebec lost relevance because now we know that a majority is possible without Quebec. The major problem that the NDP face is pleasing Quebec since its where a good chunk of their support comes from while not alienating TROC, on any major issue the NDP has to walk a very fine line on the one hand they need to keep Quebec happy, but at the same time, a lot of things that will make Quebec happy might piss off their support elsewhere. The Conservatives don't need to win any votes they just have to wait for the NDP to be put in an impossible position where they will alienate either Quebec and gain some support elsewhere or alienate the Rest of Canada and lose all possibility to form a government.

[punked]

Quebec lost relevance because now we know that a majority is possible without Quebec. The major problem that the NDP face is pleasing Quebec since its where a good chunk of their support comes from while not alienating TROC, on any major issue the NDP has to walk a very fine line on the one hand they need to keep Quebec happy, but at the same time, a lot of things that will make Quebec happy might piss off their support elsewhere. The Conservatives don't need to win any votes they just have to wait for the NDP to be put in an impossible position where they will alienate either Quebec and gain some support elsewhere or alienate the Rest of Canada and lose all possibility to form a government.

It is funny because what you are describing is happening but it is happening with Harper and the West. He keeps making Pro Western decisions (which could be right or wrong) but in doing that he is alienating the East and you can't form government with out the East. To bad your guy is to blind to see it.

[cybercoma]

It is funny because what you are describing is happening but it is happening with Harper and the West. He keeps making Pro Western decisions (which could be right or wrong) but in doing that he is alienating the East and you can't form government with out the East. To bad your guy is to blind to see it.

And he's exasperating regional antagonisms, but blaming Mulcair. The fact of the matter is that you can't simply throw all of your eggs in the oil sands and ignore every other sector of the economy.

August might be right. When people see that Harper is only interested in a single region, they're going to stop believing he's capable of leading this entire country. After having 10 years to give it a go, he has nothing to show for it other than ignoring Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and industrial Ontario, all to their detriment. People are going to realize he's an incompetent Prime Minister that doesn't know how to balance a multiple competing interests.

[bleeding heart]

Obviously Harper is going to better represent in the Canadian interests since he is the only among the two that understands that their needs to be a robust private economy that can generate the tax revenue to pay for government services that the urban latte swillers demand.

You've got to be kidding me.

[cybercoma]

Sadly he isn't.

[bleeding heart]

Sadly he isn't.

It's odd to me that Conservatives, of all people, would mock some sort of ill-defined Elitism.....oh well.

Edited June 30, 2012 by bleeding heart

[Wild Bill]

August might be right. When people see that Harper is only interested in a single region, they're going to stop believing he's capable of leading this entire country. After having 10 years to give it a go, he has nothing to show for it other than ignoring Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and industrial Ontario, all to their detriment. People are going to realize he's an incompetent Prime Minister that doesn't know how to balance a multiple competing interests.

CC, the West is the only region that is making money! The rest of the country is TAKING money!

Harper can't do much for Quebec, because they only care about support for artistes!

He can't do much for Ontario, because McGuinty the genius is in the way. That leaves the Maritimes. Newfoundland is doing ok for itself with the new oil boom. The other provinces depending on the fish and so far Harper hasn't figured out a way to make them breed more and survive to maturity.

So just what specifically would you have him do?

[Peter F]

Quebec lost relevance because now we know that a majority is possible without Quebec. ...

So, how then does Quebec become relevant?

[cybercoma]

CC, the West is the only region that is making money! The rest of the country is TAKING money!

Harper can't do much for Quebec, because they only care about support for artistes!

He can't do much for Ontario, because McGuinty the genius is in the way. That leaves the Maritimes. Newfoundland is doing ok for itself with the new oil boom. The other provinces depending on the fish and so far Harper hasn't figured out a way to make them breed more and survive to maturity.

So just what specifically would you have him do?

It must be tough to be such an effete Prime Minister.

[Signals.Cpl]

So, how then does Quebec become relevant?

If Quebec stops demanding special treatment and stops polarizing the country they become relevant, a party that has its support base in Quebec COULD become a majority if it does not have to do acrobatics to please Quebec while not pissing off TROC. The NDP could become the next government, but their problem lies in keeping Quebec happy while at the same time gathering support elsewhere, it could take just one issue to change the whole landscape and force a decision on them, be Quebec's party, be TROC's party or try for the middle ground and lose both.The conservatives don't have that problem, worry about TROC and if they are lucky Quebec will provide them with more support by making demands that unite TROC.

[Peter F]

If Quebec stops demanding special treatment and stops polarizing the country they become relevant, a party that has its support base in Quebec COULD become a majority if it does not have to do acrobatics to please Quebec while not pissing off TROC. The NDP could become the next government, but their problem lies in keeping Quebec happy while at the same time gathering support elsewhere, it could take just one issue to change the whole landscape and force a decision on them, be Quebec's party, be TROC's party or try for the middle ground and lose both.The conservatives don't have that problem, worry about TROC and if they are lucky Quebec will provide them with more support by making demands that unite TROC.

So Quebec is in fact relevant - but only to the NDP. It is not now nor can ever be relevant to the Conservatives. Correct?

[Wild Bill]

So Quebec is in fact relevant - but only to the NDP. It is not now nor can ever be relevant to the Conservatives. Correct?

That's not what has been said at all, Peter! The problem is that Quebec's wants are dramatically different from those of TROC. The NDP and the CPC both ironically have the same problem. How do they please Quebec and at the same time not tick off their support in TROC?

In the case of the CPC, some would say it is frankly impossible and therefore not worth the effort! That of course is a moot point in itself. Some would disagree.

I sense a bit of bitterness behind your words, Peter. Correct me if I am wrong but I get the impression you feel the CPC SHOULD consider Quebec relevant! While I would agree with you that would be the more desirable situation it would seem that the realities of today might be making that impossible. The CPC is starting from SO far back with Quebec that they would have to become almost an NDP clone themselves to increase their suppport in la belle province. This would be political suicide for them as far as keeping votes in TROC.

Perhaps ignoring Quebec for the nonce while waiting to see if their desires change would be the most pragmatic course.

Edited June 30, 2012 by Wild Bill

[Peter F]

Allright. I understand the position. The conservatives have no need to pander to Quebec since they can form a government without a Quebec mp. Fair enough statement of fact. Moonbox says Quebec caused this irrelevancy itself, apparently by not voting conservative. Also a fair enough statement of fact.

It is also true however that the conservatives are irrelevant to Quebec and that the conservatives brought this on themselves.

That is also a statement of fact.

[Signals.Cpl]

Allright. I understand the position. The conservatives have no need to pander to Quebec since they can form a government without a Quebec mp. Fair enough statement of fact. Moonbox says Quebec caused this irrelevancy itself, apparently by not voting conservative. Also a fair enough statement of fact.

Quebec is irrelevant not because it did not vote for the CPC, Quebec is irrelevant because the CPC proved that it is possible to form a government without Quebec, and much easier.

It is also true however that the conservatives are irrelevant to Quebec and that the conservatives brought this on themselves.

That is also a statement of fact.

Yes, but that is an irrelevant fact because the Conservatives formed a majority government with very few seats from Quebec, up to this point in time Canada has had 9 provinces and Quebec, with Quebec trying to force more concessions from the government in order to gain independence but at the same time benefit from being part of Canada. I might be mistaken but to me it seems that Quebec wants to be equal to the federal government rather than being equal to the provincial governments, that is why they are irrelevant.