j44 Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Who thinks Mitt is severely crippled if he loses the state? Who thinks it depends on Arizona? Who thinks these two states don't matter that much? If you had to put money down who would be your bet to be on the GOP ticket in November? And who gets the reference in the title? Quote
olpfan1 Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 The GOP is severely crippled no matter who wins the nomination Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 If you had to put money down who would be your bet to be on the GOP ticket in November? Romney's gonna win big in Arizona, and probably win small in Michigan. Apparently New Jersey Governor Christie now says he'd think about it if asked by Romney to be his VP pick. I would love that. Seriously, a Joe Biden/Chris Christie VP debate is about as great as it gets! Quote
j44 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Report Posted February 28, 2012 Romney's gonna win big in Arizona, and probably win small in Michigan. Apparently New Jersey Governor Christie now says he'd think about it if asked by Romney to be his VP pick. I would love that. Seriously, a Joe Biden/Chris Christie VP debate is about as great as it gets! I haven't been watching the polls lately but w McCain and Brewer both behind him I would think Mitt wins big in Arizona. That will make a potential loss in Mich. Less of an issue. I never thought of the VP debate. It'll be like two guys in a bar mouthing off to each other. I'm VERY interested in seeing who picks who for VP. Quote
kimmy Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but Arizona is an "all or nothing" state (like South Carolina) while Michigan will divide up delegates proportionately to the poll results. So it seems to me that winning or losing Michigan by a few percentage points isn't that big of a deal, because the delegate count will come out pretty close either way. -k Quote (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ Friendly forum facilitator! ┬──┬◡ﾉ(° -°ﾉ)
j44 Posted February 28, 2012 Author Report Posted February 28, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but Arizona is an "all or nothing" state (like South Carolina) while Michigan will divide up delegates proportionately to the poll results. So it seems to me that winning or losing Michigan by a few percentage points isn't that big of a deal, because the delegate count will come out pretty close either way. -k I think you are right. But I'm thinking more in the broader narrative of Romney not winning (one of) his home state(s). Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Romney's gonna win big in Arizona, and probably win small in Michigan. Apparently New Jersey Governor Christie now says he'd think about it if asked by Romney to be his VP pick. I would love that. Seriously, a Joe Biden/Chris Christie VP debate is about as great as it gets! Has it gotten so bad Shady you are pinning you hopes on a VP debate? Wow. Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Correct me if I'm wrong, but Arizona is an "all or nothing" state (like South Carolina) while Michigan will divide up delegates proportionately to the poll results. So it seems to me that winning or losing Michigan by a few percentage points isn't that big of a deal, because the delegate count will come out pretty close either way. -k Pretty sure they are still talking about forcing all or none states like Az and Fl who vote before super Tuesday to either lose half delegates or distribute delegates proportionally. So it might end up Az has half the delegates of Michigan in the end. Quote
kimmy Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 I think you are right. But I'm thinking more in the broader narrative of Romney not winning (one of) his home state(s). But that's kind of a made-up narrative, don't you think? Do people really think of Michigan when they think of Romney? I understand Massachusetts, and I understand Utah... but other than having been born there why would Michigan be a stronghold for Romney? It's like saying Toronto should be a power zone for Stephen Harper. Michigan seems like it should be ideal for the "blue collar Republican" spiel that Santorum has based his campaign around, and "he opposed the automaker bailout" ought to be a particular vulnerability for Romney in Michigan I would think. -k Quote (╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻ Friendly forum facilitator! ┬──┬◡ﾉ(° -°ﾉ)
bush_cheney2004 Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) ....Do people really think of Michigan when they think of Romney? I understand Massachusetts, and I understand Utah... but other than having been born there why would Michigan be a stronghold for Romney? It's like saying Toronto should be a power zone for Stephen Harper. You must have missed the memo about Romney's father, popular Michigan governor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Romney Edited February 28, 2012 by bush_cheney2004 Quote Economics trumps Virtue.
Moonlight Graham Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 I would bet $500 easy right now that Romney is the nominee. It's over. Quote "All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.
waldo Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 done like dinner! Talk of a brokered convention has fallen off when reality set in... the nominee would have less than 70 days to campaign against the Obama machine. So, an alternative to the failed GOP field has to come forward soon - very soon. Leading the charge of the four horsemen: Rubio, Daniels, Ryan... and Jeb 'the next one' Bush!) Quote
Moonlight Graham Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 done like dinner! Talk of a brokered convention has fallen off when reality set in... the nominee would have less than 70 days to campaign against the Obama machine. So, an alternative to the failed GOP field has to come forward soon - very soon. Leading the charge of the four horsemen: Rubio, Daniels, Ryan... and Jeb 'the next one' Bush!) Not to mention, many GOP delegates are already lined up for the other candidates. I don't see how a surprise last-minute candidate throwing their hat in the race in a few months can really win the nomination, at least without getting a lot of people (Romney supporters) PO'd. Quote "All generalizations are false, including this one." - Mark Twain Partisanship is a disease of the intellect.
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Not to mention, many GOP delegates are already lined up for the other candidates. I don't see how a surprise last-minute candidate throwing their hat in the race in a few months can really win the nomination, at least without getting a lot of people (Romney supporters) PO'd. Almost all Delegates become unbound after the second vote, meaning after 2 votes at the convention it is who ever promises the best backroom deal. It will be like a good old fashion Liberal convention that have given us such wonders as Dion, and Iggy. Quote
Topaz Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 You must have missed the memo about Romney's father, popular Michigan governor. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_W._Romney I remember the former governor very well and the America Motors and the Rambler, I was very young, of course. Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Pretty sure they are still talking about forcing all or none states like Az and Fl who vote before super Tuesday to either lose half delegates or distribute delegates proportionally. So it might end up Az has half the delegates of Michigan in the end. No, you're completely wrong. Kimmy's right. Michigan is proportional, Arizona is winner take all. Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 But that's kind of a made-up narrative, don't you think? Do people really think of Michigan when they think of Romney? I understand Massachusetts, and I understand Utah... but other than having been born there why would Michigan be a stronghold for Romney? It's like saying Toronto should be a power zone for Stephen Harper. Exactly. It's kind of odd for people to describe Michigan as Romney's home state, when he hasn't lived there in 30 years. Your Harper/Toronto comparison is very apt. Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) No, you're completely wrong. Kimmy's right. Michigan is proportional, Arizona is winner take all. Nope you are wrong and I am right Shady. Of course I would expect someone like you to not actually now about the process. The national Republican Party also stated that no state holding primaries before Super Tuesday could winner-take-all. As a result, Newt Gingrich is challenging the Florida vote and pressing for delegates to be awarded proportionately. If that happens, Romney’s lead shrinks. This wont matter if Romney wins out right however if it comes down to 100 delegates expect there to be a fight about Arizona and Florida at the convention. Sorry you know nothing Shady however in this case rules are rules. Again the Republican party at the convention could look to punish those states like Florida and Arizona who broke the rules. Edited February 28, 2012 by punked Quote
waldo Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Exactly. It's kind of odd for people to describe Michigan as Romney's home state sure Michigan is Romney's home state... haven't you heard him say he really, really likes the size of trees in Michigan! Romney fights to avoid home-state embarrassment Romney Losing Ground in Home State, Michigan Romney's lead in home state of Michigan slips Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Nope you are wrong and I am right Shady. Nope, you're wrong. Only states that moved up their primaries would be punished. Arizona hasn't moved up its primary. You also fail to recognize that there have already been primaries that have been winner take all. Like Florida. Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 Nope, you're wrong. Only states that moved up their primaries would be punished. Arizona hasn't moved up its primary. You also fail to recognize that there have already been primaries that have been winner take all. Like Florida. However the rule as written is that any state that goes before super Tuesday MUST be proportional. The question is are Republican going to enforce their own rules and will it matter come convention. Sorry you don't understand the process Shady. Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 However the rule as written is that any state that goes before super Tuesday MUST be proportional. That's not true. Sorry punked, but you're wrong. There have already been winner take all primaries, and all delegates were awared to the winner. That's why Romney has a substantial lead in delegates over the others. Because he's won a couple of winner take all states. Look at the math punked. Math doesn't lie. Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 That's not true. Sorry punked, but you're wrong. There have already been winner take all primaries, and all delegates were awared to the winner. That's why Romney has a substantial lead in delegates over the others. Because he's won a couple of winner take all states. Look at the math punked. Math doesn't lie. Here you go Shady. I know you are misinformed as usual so I have posted the rules for you. Read the bottom of page 18 please. (2) Any presidential primary, caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the purpose of selecting delegates to the national convention which occurs prior to the first day of April in the year in which the national convention is held, shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a proportional basis. http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf Remind me Shady what day is today is it before April 1st? God sometimes Shady I find you to much. Quote
Shady Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 http://www.gop.com/images/legal/2008_RULES_Adopted.pdf That's great, if I wanted to know the primary rules from 2008. Punked, Florida has already been awarded winner take all. Look at Romney's delegate total. Just look at reality for God's sake! Quote
punked Posted February 28, 2012 Report Posted February 28, 2012 (edited) That's great, if I wanted to know the primary rules from 2008. Punked, Florida has already been awarded winner take all. Look at Romney's delegate total. Just look at reality for God's sake! These are the rules passed at the convention in 2008 for the 2012 primaries Shday. They don't pass rules at the convention in 2008 for delegate selection that has already happened Shady. did you even click the link? The Document is titled the rules of the republican party As Adopted by the 2008 Republican National Convention September 1, 2008 *Amended by the Republican National Committee on August 6, 2010 You think they amended the rules for 2008 in 2010 Shady? Seriously Shady just say you were wrong and that punked was right and move on. As for Florida Newt has a complaint in about its winner take all status and it is something that might have to be addressed depending how the delegates fall. If Newt and Sanatorium have enough delegates they can enforce these rules, or at least have a fight about them at the convention. Edited February 28, 2012 by punked Quote
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