International Elections

TheNewTeddy · January 11, 2013

ITALY

A graph from wikipedia

Opinion_Polling_Chart_for_the_2013_Italian_General_Election.png

This: http://en.wikipedia...._electoral_list is a great page to follow.

Only one new poll, so I won't update the projection just yet.

ISRAEL

34 Conservative

18 Labour

14 Jewish

11 Lapid

11 Arab

10 Shas

10 Liberal

6 Torrah

5 Progressive

Edited January 11, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

bud · January 11, 2013

here is an israeli party that will not win, despite a righteous message and a charismatic leader:

instead, here is one of the racist parties that will become part of the coalition that is supposed to lead israel:

Edited January 11, 2013 by bud

TheNewTeddy · January 13, 2013

Czech Republic

Milos Zeman and Karel Schwarzenberg have advanced to a second round.

Zeman heads the Party of Civic Rights and is left of centre, while his opponent heads the party Top 09, a right of centre party.

The final round of voting takes place in 2 weeks time.

Map:

ITALY

Updated projection (pop vote)

38.05 - Socialist

26.28 - Conservative

14.15 - Populist

13.65 - Moderates

The hope for the smaller parties is to force the Socialists into a minority in the Senate.

-TSS- · January 13, 2013

I'm sad that there is no more anyone like Vaclav Klaus, a person with common sense and euroscepticism, on offer for President of the Czech Republic.

TheNewTeddy · January 15, 2013

In Lower Saxony in Germany the election has gotten very interesting. There is a 5% threshold to win seats. The Liberals are right on that threshold.

If they do not make it the results would be as follows:

72 - Conservatives

57 - Socialists

23 - Greens

Making for a Socialist+Green majority government

However... if they DO make the threshold

68 - Conservatives

54 - Socialists

21 - Greens

9 - Liberals

Making for a Conservative+Liberal majority government

Conservative voters know this and it comes down to a simple question: Are they willing to vote for another party to give their party of choice a majority coalition?

ISRAEL

Things are a-changin! Kadima is back on the board. They are a right-liberal party that was founded by a former Likud leader and swallowed the old Lapid party - that is, the one lead by the current Lapid's father. Like Shas, Kadima will keep their name in my lists. It should be noted Kadima actually won the most seats last election. Also going on the list is the Not-Shas party. They were founded by a Shas member who wanted changes but was rejected, and thus, built a party to mirror the reformed Shas he desired.

35 - Conservatives*

17 - Labour

14 - Jewish*

11 - Arabs

10 - Lapid

10 - Shas*

8 - Liberal

6 - Torrah*

5 - Progressive

2 - Kadima

2 - Nationalists

0 - Not-Shas

Members of Teddy's expected coalition (marked with *) would have 65 seats, and thus, a majority.

ITALY

Not enough new polls for a new projection, but rather, some interesting trends.

Since Monti announced a centrist coalition, the total votes for these parties... have not really moved much. The Coalition is only up a few points from where the individual parties stood at the start of December.

The Populists have lost a bit of their kick it seems. With another option (Monti) they have dropped a couple of points, and are now battling it out with the Centrists for 3rd.

The Left have united into a single list, but are still having a hell of a time trying to make the 5% threshold.

The addition of so many parties to Berlusconi's Conservative list has actually made them somewhat competitive.

The main Socialist list is down slightly.

Since the start of this year, the Conservatives have been as high as 30.7% and as low as 21.7%

The Socialists have been as high as 42.0% and as low as 33.0%

The Populists as high as 16.4% and as low as 10.0%

And the Centrists as high as 17.6% and as low as 10.5%

Edited January 15, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 15, 2013

Upcoming elections:

JANUARY

20th - http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Austria Referendum

20th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lower Saxony (Germany)*

22nd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 ISRAEL

26th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Czech (President)

FEBRUARY

3rd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Liechtenstein

3rd - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2008 - Monaco

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Cyprus

17th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Ecuador

18th - http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 - Armenia

25th - http://en.wikipedia....eneral_election ITALY

Countries in ALLCAPS will get focus by me, while those with an asterisk* after them will get a "minor focus" (similar to Romania or Ghana)

Other big elections this coming year

http://en.wikipedia....ederal_election GERMANY - Sept?

http://en.wikipedia....ederal_election AUSTRALIA - Nov?

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 WA (AUSTRALIA) - March 9th

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Iceland* - Apr 27th

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Lebanon* -

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Nepal* - Apr/May

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Pakistan* - March

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Palestine* -

http://en.wikipedia....eferendum,_2013 Zimbabwe Referendum

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2013 Zimbabwe Presidential

BE SURE TO CHECK THE BOTTOM OF THE PREVIOUS PAGE FOR MY MOST RECENT POST!!!

Edited January 19, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 17, 2013

This weekend there are two polls. First the Austrian Referendum, where conscription is expected to be endorsed, and second, the election in the German state of Lower Saxony where the race remains neck and neck.

ITALY

37.60% - Socialist

28.25% - Conservative

14.33% - Centrist

12.63% - Populist

ISRAEL

34 - Conservative*

17 - Labour

14 - Jewish*

11 - Shas*

10 - Lapid

10 - Arabs

7 - Liberals

6 - Progressives

6 - Torrah*

3 - Kadima

2 - Nationalist

0 - Not-Shas

* = Expected Coalition = 65 (majority)

Edited January 17, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 20, 2013

A reminder for the naming convention I'm using for the Israeli Election:

http://www.mapleleaf...240#entry871337

----LOWER SAXONY---

No poll updates in Lower Saxony, however there are 4 possibilities.

Yellowless Red-Green Majority

Widely expected until a week or so ago, is a Red-Green Majority with no Yellow, IE: a Socialist-Green Majority coalition government where the (Yellow/FDP) Liberals fail to make it into the parliament. Such an election would look something like this:

69 - Conservative

59 - Socialist

24 - Green

Traditional Red-Green Majority

With the Liberals nearing the 5% threshold, this is now a possibility. It would look something like this:

66 - Conservative

56 - Socialist

22 - Green

8 - Liberal

Traditional Black-Yellow Majority

The Conservatives (black) could manage to win enough votes to form a majority with their traditional Liberal allies. It would be somewhat like this:

69 - Conservative

54 - Socialist

21 - Green

8 - Liberal

Tie

Perhaps the most interesting scenario is what happens if the two sides happen to tie, like such:

68 - Conservative

55 - Socialist

21 - Green

8 - Liberal

Both 'standard' coalitions would have 76 seats, and a non-standard coalition would have to be put together. The options for that are as follows:

Traffic Light: A Red, Yellow, Green coalition lead by the Socialists and including both the Greens and Liberals.

Jamaica Flag: A Black, Green, and Yellow coalition, lead by the Conservatives and including both the Greens and Liberals.

Grand Coalition: A Red-Black coalition including the Conservatives and Socialists, lead by the Conservatives.

The Liberals and Greens generally don't get along very well, but with the Greens "maturing" and the Liberals generally becoming "desperate" due to losses, the more usual-as-of-late Grand Coalition may not be the default option here.

My projections are as follows.

Between 66 and 69 - CDU (Conservative)

Between 54 and 59 - SPD (Socialist)

Between 21 and 24 - GRN (Green)

Either (Zero) 0 or 8 - FDP (Liberal)

With the last depending on if they just make the threshold of just miss it.

----ITALY----

I guess Voters in Italy have been reading this thread in massive numbers, as they are starting to make things interesting for once!

The Socialists have been bleeding away support as Berlusconi continues to rack up new small parties to attach to his Conservative coalition. A large number of polls now show the gap down to 10 points or less. Averages are as follows:

36.83% - Socialist (Bersani)

28.13% - Conservative (Berlusconi)

14.03% - Centrist (Monti)

12.82% - Populist (Grillo)

4.72% - Progressive (Ingroia)

What has happened is not only have the Conservatives been able to take a few points from the Populists, but the Progressives are inching up towards the threshold.

Remember, the winner of the popular vote, even by 1 vote, wins at least 344 seats in the house, 55% of the seats, a majority. However, the Senate does things a bit differently. The winner of each Province gets at least 55% of the seats, in that province. With the electorate so divided, it starts to become more and more likely that Monti's strategy is working. Monti is specifically focusing on the Senate race to force whomever wins into a Senate minority, and thus, force them into a coalition with him. Likely in a bid to remain the Prime Minister. Since neither Bersani or Berlusconi seem to be actually running for the Prime Minister's job (likely to pull the strings from behind the scenes while someone else takes the blame) Monti could well actually win the election from 3rd place.

----ISRAEL----

Israel is actually the boring one this time, with not much in the way of changes since the last update. Lapid continues to suck up voters while Kadima solidifies it's place on the board. Not-Shas is back in obscurity, while the Nationalists seem to be sticking around.

Current projection is as follows (note, includes trends that I see, may not match current polling data 100%)

32 - Conservative (Coalition of 2 parties)

17 - Labour

14 - Jewish (Coalition of 2 parties)

14 - Lapid (Liberalish policies)

11 - Shas

8 - Liberal (Livni's party)

6 - Torrah Party

6 - Progressives (Meretz)

4 - Hadash (Arab/Jewish)

4 - UAL (Islamist)

3 - Balad (Arab Party)

2 - Kadima (won most seats last time)

This adds to 121. Chances are Hadash or UAL (one of them, not both) will in 3 and the other will win 4.

The Nationalists also may win 2 seats if they manage to hit the threshold.

I would expect the Conservatives, Jewish Party, Shas, and Torrah Party to form a coalition after this election. At projected support levels, this gives them 63 seats.

Edited January 20, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 21, 2013

In the Referendum in Austria, voters rejected, by a 60-40 margin, a change that would outlaw the draft.

It seems there were fewer seats at stake in Lower Saxony than I had been told. Regardless, the preliminary results are quite clear. CDU agents told voters to vote FDP to ensure they make the threshold and they did in huge numbers, doubling the expected FDP take.

CDU - 54

FDP - 14

TOTAL - 68

SPD - 49

GRN - 20

TOTAL - 69

With votes still being counted, however, the results could swing the other way. After all, it's 1 seat we are talking about.

I'll keep you updated if anything changes.

PS

The Left got 3.3% and the Pirates 1.9%, both below the 5% threshold. If there was no threshold they'd have won 5 and 3 seats respectively, with all other parties losing a total of 8 seats to make up for this addition.

Edited January 21, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 21, 2013

My original projection:

Between 66 and 69 - CDU (Conservative)

Between 54 and 59 - SPD (Socialist)

Between 21 and 24 - GRN (Green)

Either (Zero) 0 or 8 - FDP (Liberal)

Changes, given that there are only 90% of the seats I had expected. IE, these numbers multiplied by .9

59-62 CDU (54) - result

49-53 SPD (49)

19-22 GRN (20)

00-07 FDP (14)

Presuming a 7 seat tactical vote from CDU to FDP

59-62 CDU (61) Prediction correct

49-53 SPD (49) Prediction correct

19-22 GRN (20) Prediction correct

00-07 FDP (07) Prediction correct

My errors were

> Not bothering to double check how many seats were up for grabs

> Not expecting the CDU-FDP tactical vote, or, it's strength.

jbg · January 21, 2013

With votes still being counted, however, the results could swing the other way. After all, it's 1 seat we are talking about.

The fate of the world and the winner of the Super Bowl hinges on this seat though.

TheNewTeddy · January 21, 2013

Remember, the Israeli election is tomorrow.

My projection is as follows:

32 - Conservative (Coalition of 2 parties)

17 - Labour

14 - Jewish (Coalition of 2 parties)

14 - Lapid (Liberalish policies)

11 - Shas

8 - Liberal (Livni's party)

6 - Torrah Party

6 - Progressives (Meretz)

4 - Hadash (Arab/Jewish)

3 - UAL (Islamist)

3 - Balad (Arab Party)

2 - Kadima (won most seats last time)

I reserve the right to change it due to last minute information

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

Election in Israel today.

I need to be out until about 3pm or so, but after that, polls should close, and I should be able to provide updates as counting progresses.

My final projection is as follows:

32 - Conservative - Likud and Yisrael Beitanu - Benjamin Netanyahu

17 - Labour - Avoda - Shelly Yachimovich

14 - Jewish - Jewish Home and National Union - Naftali Bennett

13 - Lapid - Yesh Atid - Yair Lapid

11 - Shas - Shas - Eli Yishai

8 - Liberal - Hatanuah - Tzipi Livni

6 - Torrah - United Torrah Judaism - Yaakov Litzman

6 - Progressive - Meretz - Zhava Gal-On

4 - Arab&Jewish - Hadash - Mohammad Barakeh

4 - Arab&Islamist - Balad - Jamal Zahalka

3 - Arab&Nationalist - UAL - Ibrahim Sarsur

2 - Kadima - Kadima - Shaul Mofaz

0 - Nationalist - Otzma LeYisrael - Aryeh Eldad

0 - Not-Shas - Am Shalem - Haim Amsalem

Edited January 22, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

Possible Coalitions:

Over the past week, just about all the parties in the "Expected Coalition" have backed away from one another. The Jewish Party has said they'd rather sit with Labour. Likud has said they'd rather sit with Labour too. One might expect the two tried to hammer out a back-room deal before hand and both sides left frustrated. Remember too it was Labour leaving the government that caused the early election, but with more seats, and with the government losing 10 seats, Labour may be more willing to rejoin if they have more power. The 7 largest parties are now saying they'd all like a centrist coalition. Despite that, a right-wing coalition still may result at the end of the day. Here are a few possibilities.

RIGHT WING:

Conservative + Jewish + Shas + Torrah

A left wing friend from Israel refers to this as the combining of a fascist with a theocratic administration and does not care for it. Despite the calls for a centrist government, I still put my proverbial money on this coalition.

LEFT WING:

Labour + Lapid + Liberal + Meretz + Kadima, with Shas, and support from Hadash

Unlikely as the Arab parties would probably never support anything of this sort, and they'd need not only them, but Shas, which would never allow the Arab parties to do so, even if not officially in the coalition.

LEFT RELIGIOUS:

Labour + Jewish + Lapid + Shas + Liberal

I suspect Labour will very much try to cobble this together after the election. They may even try to bring in Kadima along for bonus points.

RIGHT CENTRE

Likud + Labour + Lapid

The smallest possible coalition (3 parties) may prove to be the most stable, if the latter two are willing

RELIGIOUS CENTRE

Likud + Lapid + Shas + Liberal or Torrah

This is probably what Likud will aim for first, and what they hope to get.

No other obvious combo has the 61 seats needed for a majority at these levels.

Things to keep in mind:

Kadima will survive it seems but suffer a massive drop, equal in size to that the Bloc faced in 2011. Kadima is expected to lose 93% of their seats, and be reduced from 28 to 2.

Lapid's party is pulling support from Kadima. His father was one of the key people to support Kadima is a critical stage and his father's party basically joined with Kadima providing it an important electoral base.

Livni was Kadima's leader for quite a while.

Combined, Livni and Lapid are expected to take 21 seats. Add to the 2 Kadima will take and the end result is 23, not far off from the 28 the party took last time.

A pensioners party is running. It is lead by a sweet looking old man who once headed an organization seen as more ruthless than the CIA and KGB put together; he was the one who (ran the operation that) hunted down Eichmann. He ran in 2006 when his party was projected to take 2 seats and wound up taking 7. His new party may be able to surprise as well and despite being projected at 0 the entire way, may manage to score seats.

The last 2 parties on the list may also make the threshold, especially the nationalists.

People may be saying they'll vote for Shas - a very ethnic based party - despite the fact they plan to vote for another party like the Jewish party. We'll see if this actually happens or not.

Edited January 22, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

One of the exit polls:

31 - Conservative

19 - Lapid

17 - Labour

12 - Jewish

12 - Shas

9 - Arab Total

7 - Meretz

6 - Liberal

0 - Kadima

0 - Nationalist

0 - Not-Shas

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

Another Exit Poll:

31 - Conservative

18 - Lapid

17 - Labour

13 - Shas

12 - Jewish

9 - Arab Total

7 - Meretz

6 - Liberal

0 - Kadima

0 - Nationalist

0 - Not-Shas

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

Word on the street is that Bibi and Lapid will form a coalition.

ALSO NOTE FURTHER UPDATES WILL JUST BE EDITED IN TO THIS POST TO AVOID DOUBLE POSTING. If there is a large update (IE breaking news) or, a long time gap, then I will move to other posts. until then, find more information below:

update - 3:16 (above)

update 3:30

looking for more exit polls and result data. expect an update shortly.

update - 3:33

actual results can be found here

http://www.votes-19....nationalresults

remember that it is VERY early... and all in hebrew. I'll try to translate as things go on.

final exit poll thanks to my friend in Haifa

Likud - our home - 31
yashatid - 19

avoda - 17

Jewish Home - 12

Shas - 11

Traffic... yes google translate did it again and i kept it in for the lolz - hatnua - 7

Meretz - 7

United Torah Party - 6

Hadash - 3

UAL - Renewal (Ra'am - Taal) - 3

NDA (Balad) - 2

Power to Isreal (uzma le israel) - 2

62 haredi Right - 58 Left - Arab

unedited quote as he sent it.

all 3 exit polls

4th poll added.

31 - 31 - 31 - 29 - Likud

19 - 18 - 19 - 19 - Lapid

17 - 17 - 17 - 16 - Labour

12 - 12 - 12 - 13 - Jewish

11 - 13 - 12 - 10 - Shas

09 - 09 - 08 - ?? - Arab (total)

07 - 07 - 07 - 06 - Meretz

06 - 06 - 06 - ?? - Torrah

06 - 06 - 07 - 07 - Liberal

00 - 00 - 02 - 02 - Nationalist

00 - 00 - 00 - 02 - Kadima

Next post will be a separate post averaging this and discussing possible coalition options.

Edited January 22, 2013 by TheNewTeddy

TheNewTeddy · January 22, 2013

Exit Poll Averaging, "result" of the election.

31 - Conservative AKA Likud

19 - Lapid

17 - Labour

12 - Jewish

12 - Shas

7 - Meretz

6 - Liberal AKA Hatnuah

6 - Torrah (forgot them in exit polls!)

5 - Hadash

3 - UAL

2 - Balad

So, how do our proposed coalitions above do with these numbers?

RIGHT WING:

Likud + Jewish + Shas + Torrah

61 seats, a bare-boned majority. These parties, however, have indicated they may not be willing to work together.

LEFT WING:

Lapid + Labour + Liberal + Meretz etc etc

These 4 parties get 49 seats. Shas would bring them up to 61, and therefore, this is possible... but with Meretz so far on the left and Shas still a religious party, somewhat unlikely. Labour will be pushing for this, even if Shas has to be replaced with the Jewish party.

LEFT RELIGIOUS:

Lapid + Labour + Jewish + Shas

No majority. They'd hit exactly 60 and would need at least 1 other person to back them. Perhaps Livni could come in.

RIGHT CENTRE:

Likud + Lapid + Labour

67 seats. This is something that Likud could back.

RELIGIOUS CENTRE

Likud + Lapid + Shas

These 3 parties could also cobble together a majority. Likud probably wants this more than anything right about now.

4th exit poll

The only real change with the late exit poll is Shas loses 1 seat. This means that the Left Wing coalition is now impossible, and, so is the right wing coalition. That is important. The results, however, will tell the final story.

I now seriously doubt a right-wing government will be formed. I also doubt that a government without Likud can be formed. This means Likud and Lapid (combined seats: 50) will decide on where to get the 11 extra seats they need for a government, and I suspect Lapid will have quite a bit of say on who that other party is.

In other words, though Netanyahu has won the election, Lapid is in the driver's seat.

Edited January 22, 2013 by TheNewTeddy