Federal Election Polls

[Hydraboss]

...this is a close race.

No it isn't. The dips will gain big in Kwebek (which is awesome) and will supplant the libs (which again is awesome), but that's about it. They will likely pick up a few across the country, but there will be no "mindblowing" seat gains outside "la whiny province".

So, Punked, just for fun...post the number of seats you think you guys will get tomorrow. And then I'll post mine.

Actually, I'll start a thread.

[punked]

No it isn't. The dips will gain big in Kwebek (which is awesome) and will supplant the libs (which again is awesome), but that's about it. They will likely pick up a few across the country, but there will be no "mindblowing" seat gains outside "la whiny province".

So, Punked, just for fun...post the number of seats you think you guys will get tomorrow. And then I'll post mine.

Actually, I'll start a thread.

Sounds good to me.

[Shady]

The results are skewed by NDP support in Quebec but not at all by Tory support in Alberta.

Not as skewed as Quebec makes NDP support look. Alberta helps the Tory numbers, but the Tories are also leading the NDP in BC, Ontario, the Praries, and Atlantic Canada. The only area the NDP leads in is Quebec.

[Hydraboss]

Sounds good to me.

Done.

[cybercoma]

Craig Oliver of CTV just predicted a NDP minority government but I'm wondering if it may end up being a majority for Layton.

Harry, you make me laugh and I'm supporting Layton. It's not going to happen, my friend.

[BubberMiley]

Not as skewed as Quebec makes NDP support look. Alberta helps the Tory numbers, but the Tories are also leading the NDP in BC, Ontario, the Praries, and Atlantic Canada.

You haven't paid any attention to Atlantic Canada in a while, have you?

Edited May 1, 2011 by BubberMiley

[punked]

Not as skewed as Quebec makes NDP support look. Alberta helps the Tory numbers, but the Tories are also leading the NDP in BC, Ontario, the Praries, and Atlantic Canada. The only area the NDP leads in is Quebec.

That depends on the poll you are looking at. The NDP could be leading in Atlantic Canada and BC. I agree it could either way in those regions.

[cybercoma]

Exactly. The Quebec NDP approval skews the entire federal percentage. But the NDP spin doctors in this forum refuse to acknowledge it. Purposely.

What does the Alberta CPC approval do to the entire federal percentage?

[CANADIEN]

Numbers in Nanos are not substantially different today that they were five days ago. I don't think one can conclude that there is either a narrowing or widening of the gap.

Vote wise? The one thing that the Conservatives need to win, a split of the vote between Liberals and NDP, will occur, but I doubt it will give enough extra seats to the Conservatives. They probably need about 75 Ontario seats, I think they'll get about 60.

[Smallc]

Harry, you make me laugh and I'm supporting Layton. It's not going to happen, my friend.

Craig Oliver wasn't saying that Jack would win the most seats, but that he would have enough to form a coalition with the Liberals.

[charter.rights]

What does the Alberta CPC approval do to the entire federal percentage?

It has never done much for the final figures. Traditionally governments have been elected and defeated in Ontario and Quebec. So taking the western bias for Conservatives and the Quebec surge out of the equation, the determination of who will win the election will primarily be determined in Ontario.

According to the Nanos poll poll posted earlier today it looks like:

...the Tories are at 36.2%, followed by the Liberals at 31.1%, the NDP at 27.4%...." the BQ at 23.9 [inserted] " ....and the Green Party at 4.4%.

The Conservatives will have another minority followed by the Liberals as official opposition and the NDP as second fiddle... However, the one real fact again comes to light. A majority of Canadians don't like the Conservatives and Canada is more left-leaning than right leaning. This very well may end up in coalition if the Conservatives can't win the confidence of the House.

Edited May 1, 2011 by charter.rights

[Smallc]

EKOS:

C - 34.6

N - 31.4

L - 20.4

G - 6.3

B - 5.4(!)

Final poll to be released later tonight; Nanos as well. With these numbers, EKOS and iPolitics predict a Conservative plurality with the NDP coming to within 20 seats on the Conservatives.

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/ipolitics-ekos-poll-cpc-34-6-ndp-31-4-and-a-final-forecast-tonight-at-10-p-m/

Edited May 1, 2011 by Smallc

[Topaz]

Is it true, if a party doesn't have more than 25 seats elected, they can't seat in Parliament?? I thought I heard some one say that about the Bloc.

[Smallc]

Where would you ever have heard that?

[CANADIEN]

Is it true, if a party doesn't have more than 25 seats elected, they can't seat in Parliament?? I thought I heard some one say that about the Bloc.

Not true one bit. There is a treshold below which a party does not get official status (with the corresponding research budget, share of questions at question period, share of committee seats)

[jbg]

You're talking to a person who knows what he's talking about.

He actually is a very smart person.

Doer was a disaster for Manitoba....Layer after layer has been added to the beaurocracy for no other reason than to do something for the sake of doing it.

His name, when you separate out the syllables, is a strong hint of that propensity.

They call our finance minister here a "weapon of math destruction".

Good pun. Probably intended. Edited May 1, 2011 by jbg

[nittanylionstorm07]

EKOS:

C - 34.6

N - 31.4

L - 20.4

G - 6.3

B - 5.4(!)

Final poll to be released later tonight; Nanos as well. With these numbers, EKOS and iPolitics predict a Conservative plurality with the NDP coming to within 20 seats on the Conservatives.

http://ipolitics.ca/2011/05/01/ipolitics-ekos-poll-cpc-34-6-ndp-31-4-and-a-final-forecast-tonight-at-10-p-m/

Tories: This poll is crazy, probably some liberal socialist concocted it.

Is it true, if a party doesn't have more than 25 seats elected, they can't seat in Parliament?? I thought I heard some one say that about the Bloc.

You're thinking of the minimum number of required seats for official party/federal funding statuses. They still sit.

[punked]

Is it true, if a party doesn't have more than 25 seats elected, they can't seat in Parliament?? I thought I heard some one say that about the Bloc.

They are not allowed to ask Questions during question period if they don't have party status. They can only sit and watch.

[Smallc]

The official party threshold is 12 seats, not 25.

[nittanylionstorm07]

The official party threshold is 12 seats, not 25.

I knew it was smaller, but didn't know the number. Bloc could be flirting with that, fortunately.

[cybercoma]

I really wish we could post photos because you can see how the NDP support has turned sharply north in every region in the country, but the prairies. See the graphs here:

National

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls.gif

Atlantic

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls-atlantic.gif

Quebec

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls-quebec.gif

Ontario

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls-ontario.gif

Prairies

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls-prairies.gif

British Columbia

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/polls-britishcolumbia.gif

The patterns are fascinating.

Edited May 1, 2011 by cybercoma

[Smallc]

The prairie numbers are very skewed by Alberta too, since they make up more than 3/5 of the population there.

[wyly]

The prairie numbers are very skewed by Alberta too, since they make up more than 3/5 of the population there.

and no matter how many more albertans vote conservative their seat count can't rise...they may even lose a couple of battles in Edmonton...

[Smallc]

Harris Decima:

C - 36

N - 30

L - 19

B - 6

G - 6

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/national/final-cp-harris-decima-poll-tories-lead-by-six-per-cent-majority-possible-121059034.html

Anything could happen with those numbers. The Conservatives will get the most seats....but a majority would be difficult, despite the headline.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Harris Decima:

C - 36

N - 30

L - 19

B - 6

G - 6

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/special/federal-election/national/final-cp-harris-decima-poll-tories-lead-by-six-per-cent-majority-possible-121059034.html

Anything could happen with those numbers. The Conservatives will get the most seats....but a majority would be difficult, despite the headline.

I agree. I think the major conflict in this election is trying to rectify where the Con increases are (how big are they in already strong Tory seats?) versus where the NDP may actually be challenging.