Federal Election Polls

[nittanylionstorm07]

well that interesting, I assume that came out today...

42% in Quebec depending how the votes are dispersed is coming close to a sweep situation, or they're all in montreal and QC...

libs pulling even in Ont could be a killer for the cons

NDP with-in touching distance in BC is also very significant, questionable though a day or two ago they were trailing by nearly 20 points...

You know, reading those provincial breakdowns, there are some wildly different numbers between those, Nanos, and EKOS.

Alberta is relatively consistent, but other polls have showed NDP ahead or tied, or closer than that in Sask/Man. Ontario is quite different... Cons were previously shown to be way ahead of the Libs in 2nd...

[Harry]

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc

Apr 28 / Harris D / 35% / 30% / 22% / NDP within 5% of first place

Apr 28 / EKOS / 34.8% / 27.5% / 22.3% / 6.1%

Apr 28 / Nanos / 36.6% / 30.4% / 21.9% / 6.0% / NDP within 6.2% of first place

Apr 27 / EKOS / 34.0% / 28.1% / 22.9% / 6.6% / NDP within 5.9% of first place

Apr 27 / Forum / 34.0% / 31.0% / 22.0% / / NDP within 3% of first place

Apr 26 / Nanos / 37.8% / 27.8% / 22.9% / 5.8%

Apr 26 / Angus R / 35.0% / 30.0% / 22.0% / 5.0% / NDP within 5% of 1st place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27.9% / 24.0% / 6.0%

Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28.0% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /

Apr 21 / Envi / 39.0% / 25.0% / 22.0% /

Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43.0% / 24.0% / 21.0% / 6.0%

Apr 16 / Angus R / 36.0% / 25.0% / 25.0% /

As for a massive NDP collapse, that likely isn’t going to happen. Jack Layton’s orange train has left the station and it’s just a question of how far it will take him. With a very slight uptick, he could see himself arriving at not only Stornoway, but even Sussex if the new government were to be defeated promptly. Heady stuff for a party that entered the race at a mere 14 points.

In the next few days, we will see if Canadian voters have any further surprises in store for what must be shell shocked politicians. It seems that final movements in vote rich Ontario will provide the answer as to what colour – or colours – the next government of Canada will be.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_april_28_2011.pdf

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[cybercoma]

To quote my father's favorite saying, "If you're so smart, why ain't you rich?"

Why indeed? Have you ever really thought about that question?

[Dave_ON]

I wonder if Layton would withold senate appointments if he became PM.

Given that the senate is part of our constitution and requires a specific number of senators, if he did withold the senate appointments I'm certain the GG would be constitutionally bound to appoint them in place of the PM. The senate is not an optional body that exists at the pleasure of the PM.

[cybercoma]

Given that the senate is part of our constitution and requires a specific number of senators, if he did withold the senate appointments I'm certain the GG would be constitutionally bound to appoint them in place of the PM. The senate is not an optional body that exists at the pleasure of the PM.

Yes, but if that would requeir the GG to make an appointment, then that's a good way for Jack to get out of doing it.

[wyly]

and constitutions can be changed...

[ToadBrother]

Yes, but if that would requeir the GG to make an appointment, then that's a good way for Jack to get out of doing it.

If a Prime Minister delayed for too long, it would precipitate a constitutional crisis, perhaps a minor one in this case, but such an action would be wildly irresponsible on the Prime Minister's part. The whole idea of reserve powers and the like is that they're seldom used and only when the normal political processes fail. Refusing to name new Senators is not a failure of process, it's a deliberate attempt to undermine them, which goes completely against the notion of responsible government.

If Layton is dedicated towards killing the Senate, then he needs to do it the right way, by convincing the Senate and two thirds of the provinces representing over 50% of the population that it is a good idea. But I'd suggest he go beyond that and make damned sure that Quebec was onside, otherwise, despite all his talk of asymmetric federalism, he'll ignite a firestorm.

Edited April 28, 2011 by ToadBrother

[ToadBrother]

and constitutions can be changed...

In a proper orderly fashion as laid out within those constitutions.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Did anyone else notice this about Harris Decima?

The most recent data were gathered between April 20 and April 27, 2011 for 1,011 completes

That includes some OLD! data... wow!

[cybercoma]

If a Prime Minister delayed for too long, it would precipitate a constitutional crisis, perhaps a minor one in this case, but such an action would be wildly irresponsible on the Prime Minister's part. The whole idea of reserve powers and the like is that they're seldom used and only when the normal political processes fail. Refusing to name new Senators is not a failure of process, it's a deliberate attempt to undermine them, which goes completely against the notion of responsible government.

If Layton is dedicated towards killing the Senate, then he needs to do it the right way, by convincing the Senate and two thirds of the provinces representing over 50% of the population that it is a good idea. But I'd suggest he go beyond that and make damned sure that Quebec was onside, otherwise, despite all his talk of asymmetric federalism, he'll ignite a firestorm.

I suppose he could also ask the provinces/regions to nominate Senators and put their choices in place. In a sense, he'll have not picked the Senators.

[ToadBrother]

I suppose he could also ask the provinces/regions to nominate Senators and put their choices in place. In a sense, he'll have not picked the Senators.

The PM certainly can advise the GG to name Senators by any particular criteria he sees fit. This is more in line with the Tory idea of Senate reform. Layton's stated aim is to kill it entire. I'm saying that if a hypothetical situation (very hypothetical as we're talking about Layton as PM) came along where the PM decided, because he doesn't like the Senate, that he'd refuse to advise the GG to appoint new Senators, he would create a crisis for the GG because the GG is required by the constitution to fill Senate vacancies on the advice of the Government. I don't know about anyone else, but I sure don't want a PM intentionally defying constitutional requirements. That would be much worse than the Tories' rights and privileges woes.

[PIK]

well that interesting, I assume that came out today...

42% in Quebec depending how the votes are dispersed is coming close to a sweep situation, or they're all in montreal and QC...

libs pulling even in Ont could be a killer for the cons

NDP with-in touching distance in BC is also very significant, questionable though a day or two ago they were trailing by nearly 20 points...

Harper is way out front in ont and bc, jacks numbers are very concentrated, I still believe harper will still get a majority.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Harper is way out front in ont and bc, jacks numbers are very concentrated, I still believe harper will still get a majority.

You are delusional.

[cybercoma]

I take what you're saying, TB. I'm just thinking out loud about how Layton could, if he were to become PM, handle senator appointments, as his party does not recognize the Senate.

[ToadBrother]

I take what you're saying, TB. I'm just thinking out loud about how Layton could, if he were to become PM, handle senator appointments, as his party does not recognize the Senate.

I'm always amused by the whole "we do not recognize the Senate line". It has more than a few shades of King Canute.

[Harry]

Did anyone else notice this about Harris Decima?

The most recent data were gathered between April 20 and April 27, 2011 for 1,011 completes

That includes some OLD! data... wow!

Good catch.

This probably means the more likely numbers for Harris Decima today are something like this:

Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - 20%

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[ToadBrother]

Good catch.

This proably means the more likely numbers for Harris Decima out today are something like this:

Cons - 33%, NDP - 32%, Libs - 20%

I keep wanting to tell you your out of lunch, but then the next day you end up being right. You're kind of pissing me off!

[nittanylionstorm07]

I keep wanting to tell you your out of lunch, but then the next day you end up being right. You're kind of pissing me off!

Still waiting on Ipsos and Leger... Ipsos would be interesting to see how far the Tories have fallen.

Edited April 28, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[Harry]

I keep wanting to tell you your out of lunch, but then the next day you end up being right. You're kind of pissing me off!

You're too funny!

Actually TB I think you have quite a good handle on the Canadian political scene and I always appreciate your comments even if we do disagree on occasion. Seriously I have learned from you.

Anyway no matter who end up with the most number of seats, they will have to seriously start taking the other parties into consideration from now on, as I don't think Canadians will put up with too much more of the BS we have seen coming out of Ottawa in the recent past.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[RNG]

Still waiting on Ipsos and Leger... Ipsos would be interesting to see how far they believe the Tories have fallen.

Do you know something I don't know?

[mikedavid00]

You do know Ron Paul is in favor of softning of marijuana laws right?

So am I

[Guest Derek L]

So am I

So why your objection to members of the NDP being reefer addicts?

[RNG]

So why your objection to members of the NDP being reefer addicts?

Reefer madness???/??

[Mr.Canada]

So am I

Likewise. Our cannabis laws are in need of updating.

[mikedavid00]

So why your objection to members of the NDP being reefer addicts?

It was actually to show that there are people trying to run a country clouding their mind and judgment with weed.

And I'm not only for eliminating marijuana laws, but there's a whole bunch of other laws I'm for eliminating. The more laws, the bigger the gov't.

Edited April 28, 2011 by mikedavid00