Federal Election Polls

[Harry]

People better seriously start reconsidering their "ABH" choice, if that's their thing.

According to EKOS, NDP just jumped 2.5% on the Cons overnite.

It looks like we are heading for an NDP government.

What do you mean by reconsidering, reconsidering what?

Edited April 29, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

Not that amazing. The Ontario numbers are still troublesome.

The NDP made up huge ground in Ontario.

[cybercoma]

People are still muttering about the Anything But Harper vote. The whole theory relies on the premise that there is little swing in the vote and most people will vote the same as last time. With the rising tide of NDP support, those that toss their support behind what they conceive as a stronger Liberal candidate may end up surprised at the support given to the NDP candidate in their riding, kicking themselves when the results come in. I have a feeling that this Anything But Harper movement is going to be to the detriment of the NDP now and cause a significant amount of vote splitting, where an NDP candidate may otherwise have a better chance than they did in the previous election. Look for a rise in popular support for the NDP on election night with them finishing close to the Conservatives in terms of pop. %. However, look for the Conservatives to pull MANY more seats, prompting an electoral crisis post-election.

Hang on to your hats, in other words.

[wyly]

I wish voters would step back and remember history before voting. Harper? Cold and aloof, calculating. Seems like a very smart man, advised banks to tighten their rules because he saw the world recession coming. I have my choice of jobs, and the lowest taxes I can remember. I seem to remember him saying that Canada should have went to Iraq, against 65% of Canadians wishes,

ya lets look back in history before voting... harper advised banks?..incorrect the banks told harper the recession was coming...everyone knew before he did....what was his promise on the eve of an election and the recession? Canada will not have a deficit and will post a surplus

...and who actually increased the odds of canada going into the housing crisis recession ? Harper-Just yesterday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty repeated the mantra that the government acted early to get rid of risky mortgages. What he and Prime Minister Stephen Harper do not explain, however, is that the expansion of zero-down, 40-year mortgages began with measures contained in the first Conservative budget in May of 2006. your financial genius running the conservative party was part of the problem!

and ya harper would've sent canadians to die in an illegal war in Iraq because of nonexistent WMD...

ABH...vote Jack or Iggy or even coalition anything but harper...

[wyly]

Here's some absolutely fantastic news for Layton's NDP.

Orange wave hits Quebec City - no Tory MP, Minister safe: Crop

NPD - 34%

Bloc - 27%

Cons - 27%

Libs - 10%

that could mean the loss of 10-11 seats that would mean the conservatives would need to pick 10 elsewhere just to hold their ground and gain 20+ for a majority, all on less of the popular vote and the NDP gaining ground every day...only the screwed up FPTP can save them...

[ToadBrother]

that could mean the loss of 10-11 seats that would mean the conservatives would need to pick 10 elsewhere just to hold their ground and gain 20+ for a majority, all on less of the popular vote and the NDP gaining ground every day...only the screwed up FPTP can save them...

And I contend with numbers in the mid-30s that it can't. The amount of vote splitting necessary to allow Tories to walk up the middle would have to be huge. The Tories won't get a majority.

[nittanylionstorm07]

And I contend with numbers in the mid-30s that it can't. The amount of vote splitting necessary to allow Tories to walk up the middle would have to be huge. The Tories won't get a majority.

The Tories are failing to understand that vote splitting is no longer occurring, and that the NDP has replaced the Liberals.

There is a difference.

[ToadBrother]

People are still muttering about the Anything But Harper vote. The whole theory relies on the premise that there is little swing in the vote and most people will vote the same as last time. With the rising tide of NDP support, those that toss their support behind what they conceive as a stronger Liberal candidate may end up surprised at the support given to the NDP candidate in their riding, kicking themselves when the results come in. I have a feeling that this Anything But Harper movement is going to be to the detriment of the NDP now and cause a significant amount of vote splitting, where an NDP candidate may otherwise have a better chance than they did in the previous election. Look for a rise in popular support for the NDP on election night with them finishing close to the Conservatives in terms of pop. %. However, look for the Conservatives to pull MANY more seats, prompting an electoral crisis post-election.

Hang on to your hats, in other words.

It could be very interesting. It does appear that the NDP are finally eating into Tory support in Ontario. The vote splitting working to the benefit of the Tories only works if the NDP are chewing into Liberal support. If they roll over top of the Liberals and start directly competing with the Tories, that could very well be a game changer.

The only thing I see not being in the NDP's favor at this point is that the election is on Monday, and there may not be enough time to solidify those crucial contests. Right now, folks, I think that's the Tories only real hope. They've got to know that a majority is impossible, and that changes the post-election algebra.

[ToadBrother]

The Tories are failing to understand that vote splitting is no longer occurring, and that the NDP has replaced the Liberals.

There is a difference.

There's no doubt there will be vote-splitting in some ridings. I don't think anyone can argue with that. If the Tories were sitting in the high 30s, say around 38% or 39%, I think vote splitting could deliver them these sorts of ridings. But to be at 35%, or even lower, say at 34%, I don't think you need to be a mathematician to figure out that the odds are strikingly against the Tories being able to walk up the middle of anything. They'll gain or keep some ridings, but I think once you dip below 35%, you're now talking about ridings the Tories assumed were theirs now suddenly being at play.

[wyly]

The Tories are failing to understand that vote splitting is no longer occurring, and that the NDP has replaced the Liberals.

There is a difference.

there is that tipping point but I'm not sure it's been passed as yet

[ToadBrother]

there is that tipping point but I'm not sure it's been passed as yet

I guess it depends on the particular tipping point. If the tipping point is whether the Tories can still achieve a slim majority via vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, I'd say that's likely passed. I cannot fathom them doing it at the current levels of support, nor do I see them being able to regain the 37% to 39% where they can regain that potential.

If you mean the tipping point where the NDP come close to or overtake the Tories. I don't think that one has come, and I don't think there's enough time for them to solidify their support in enough crucial ridings to pull it off. They'll get the second-highest seat count, but just how high that is we don't know. Could it be more than a 100 seats, maybe, though I still don't think they have solidified things enough to hit it, and time is running out.

[wyly]

I guess it depends on the particular tipping point. If the tipping point is whether the Tories can still achieve a slim majority via vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals, I'd say that's likely passed. I[/b] cannot fathom them doing it at the current levels of support, nor do I see them being able to regain the 37% to 39% where they can regain that potential.

that one...

and by monday it's possible the ndp could pick up another two or three points and it's a whole new scenario...what I hope to see is the liberals hold firm to TO denying the cons a gain there...

[ToadBrother]

that one...

and by monday it's possible the ndp could pick up another two or three points and it's a whole new scenario...what I hope to see is the liberals hold firm to TO denying the cons a gain there...

Well, you've got my opinion. Their numbers are too low for enough vote splitting to get them over the hump and one thing is clear, the Tories are not shifting downward fast, but they certainly have no forward momentum either.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Well, you've got my opinion. Their numbers are too low for enough vote splitting to get them over the hump and one thing is clear, the Tories are not shifting downward fast, but they certainly have no forward momentum either.

The Tories are in a slow-but-steady bleeding mode. It may be just enough for the NDP to tie or just overcome them in national popular vote by May 2.

[wyly]

The Tories are in a slow-but-steady bleeding mode. It may be just enough for the NDP to tie or just overcome them in national popular vote by May 2.

but with FPTP they could win the national popular vote and still lose badly in seat count...

[nittanylionstorm07]

but with FPTP they could win the national popular vote and still lose badly in seat count...

If you are paying attention at all and understanding the regional polls, you wouldn't even mention that as a possibility.

[ToadBrother]

but with FPTP they could win the national popular vote and still lose badly in seat count...

They may certainly lose. But "badly" is a relative term. Even if the NDP tie the Tories in popular vote but only get 90 seats, that is hardly losing badly. It means they have essentially replaced the Liberals, and that is one helluva springboard, either to try for toppling the Tories over the Throne Speech with the help of the Liberals, and it also potentially means they won't have to pay the least bit of attention to the Bloc in doing so, which effectively wipes out the biggest anti-coalition talking point the Tories had. Even if the NDP decide to support the Tory minority, for them this represents a whole new reality; official opposition, larger parliamentary budgets, much more prestige and a bully pulpit of substantial proportions. If the NDP can spend the next year or two cementing their takeover as the usurpers of the Liberal position, it very well could mean that they will get their own kick at the can in government in their turn.

[wyly]

They may certainly lose. But "badly" is a relative term. Even if the NDP tie the Tories in popular vote but only get 90 seats, that is hardly losing badly. It means they have essentially replaced the Liberals, and that is one helluva springboard, either to try for toppling the Tories over the Throne Speech with the help of the Liberals, and it also potentially means they won't have to pay the least bit of attention to the Bloc in doing so, which effectively wipes out the biggest anti-coalition talking point the Tories had. Even if the NDP decide to support the Tory minority, for them this represents a whole new reality; official opposition, larger parliamentary budgets, much more prestige and a bully pulpit of substantial proportions. If the NDP can spend the next year or two cementing their takeover as the usurpers of the Liberal position, it very well could mean that they will get their own kick at the can in government in their turn.

there is all that...I see another, the NDP win the popular vote but seat count does not come anywhere near what they should have, it becomes a very strong argument for PR and the liberals may finally see the logic of it being on the receiving end of FPTP and support a change...

[ToadBrother]

there is all that...I see another, the NDP win the popular vote but seat count does not come anywhere near what they should have, it becomes a very strong argument for PR and the liberals may finally see the logic of it being on the receiving end of FPTP and support a change...

I honestly do not see a scenario, with Tory support softening in Ontario and other critical areas, where the NDP seat count is going to be that much out to lunch to their popular vote. Yes, even if they tie the Tories it still seems likely that they won't match the Tories in seats, but you seem to be invoking a nightmare scenario whereby they tie or exceed the Tories, and yet some how the Tories retain what they've got, or at least don't drop much, and I honestly do not think that's going to happen. The Tories are bleeding, albeit much more slowly than the Liberals. The NDP will get a helluva lot of seats and enough to make the ultimate outcome of who governs this country a big question mark at this time.

Edited April 29, 2011 by ToadBrother

[nittanylionstorm07]

Ipsos and Léger have to be coming out today.

[Wild Bill]

there is all that...I see another, the NDP win the popular vote but seat count does not come anywhere near what they should have, it becomes a very strong argument for PR and the liberals may finally see the logic of it being on the receiving end of FPTP and support a change...

There you go again with the PR thing. You MUST live in Toronto!

Whatever, you obviously don't give a damn for regional and local representation!

Every small town citizen in every smaller province in Canada would feel like you kicked him in the gut!

[Guest Derek L]

They may certainly lose. But "badly" is a relative term. Even if the NDP tie the Tories in popular vote but only get 90 seats, that is hardly losing badly. It means they have essentially replaced the Liberals, and that is one helluva springboard, either to try for toppling the Tories over the Throne Speech with the help of the Liberals, and it also potentially means they won't have to pay the least bit of attention to the Bloc in doing so, which effectively wipes out the biggest anti-coalition talking point the Tories had. Even if the NDP decide to support the Tory minority, for them this represents a whole new reality; official opposition, larger parliamentary budgets, much more prestige and a bully pulpit of substantial proportions. If the NDP can spend the next year or two cementing their takeover as the usurpers of the Liberal position, it very well could mean that they will get their own kick at the can in government in their turn.

If the NDP surpass the Liberals and become the official opposition in a Tory minority, they might not need to support the Throne Speech and/or budget (which will play well with their base). I think the optics of the NDP greatly surpassing the Grits, might force the Liberals into survival mode and the fear of being stuck in third/fourth place (or made irrelevant) might force them to allow the Tories to govern well they rebuild. Same with the Bloc. Siding with a stronger NDP (for the Bloc and Liberals) only gives them legitimacy.

Now if the Liberals have a slight lead over the NDP, and combined could topple the Tories without the Bloc, anything could happen.

[Dave_ON]

The Tories are in a slow-but-steady bleeding mode. It may be just enough for the NDP to tie or just overcome them in national popular vote by May 2.

Unlikely given the NDP's relatively soft level of support in Ontario, the Liberals have their strong holds in Ontario and the NDP and CPC have not managed to really chip away at these too much. It's looking like the lions share of seats the LPC will manage to win will be their typicl urban bastions. Many people forget how efficient the LPC voting block is, they derive much of it from densely populated areas in Ontario. On a map Ontario may look mostly blue, but the areas that were red are highly populated.

[wyly]

If you are paying attention at all and understanding the regional polls, you wouldn't even mention that as a possibility.

I've a lifetime of experience with FPTP, its very much a possibility', it's the reason pundits are very guarded about projecting seat counts...it's not how many votes that matter but where the votes are located...conservative support can rise in the alberta raiseing their national vote count but it matter zero because they already have all but one seat...the NDP could have 90% of the vote in quebec but it's not all that helpul if they're all in montreal...

[wyly]

There you go again with the PR thing. You MUST live in Toronto!

calgary

Whatever, you obviously don't give a damn for regional and local representation!

no that would be your belief, entire generations of albertans have lived and died without representation due to FPTP...75 yrs of right wing domination...

Every small town citizen in every smaller province in Canada would feel like you kicked him in the gut!

PR gives better representation than FPTP...